Mapping spectroscopic uncertainties into prospective methane retrieval errors from Sentinel-5 and its precursor

Sentinel-5 (S5) and its precursor (S5P) are future European satellite missions aiming at global monitoring of methane (CH4) column-average dry air mole fractions (XCH4). The spectrometers to be deployed onboard the satellites record spectra of sunlight backscattered from the Earth's surface and atmosphere. In particular, they exploit CH4 absorption in the shortwave infrared spectral range around 1.65 mu m (S5 only) and 2.35 mu m (both S5 and S5P) wavelength. Given an accuracy goal of better than 2% for XCH4 to be delivered on regional scales, assessment and reduction of potential sources of systematic error such as spectroscopic uncertainties is crucial. Here, we investigate how spectroscopic errors propagate into retrieval errors on the global scale. To this end, absorption spectra of a ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) operating at very high spectral resolution serve as estimate for the quality of the spectroscopic parameters. Feeding the FTS fitting residuals as a perturbation into a global ensemble of simulated S5- and S5P-like spectra at relatively low spectral resolution, XCH4 retrieval errors exceed 0.6% in large parts of the world and show systematic correlations on regional scales, calling for improved spectroscopic parameters.

A Bootstrap-Regression Procedure to Capture Unit Specific Effects in Data Envelopment Analysis

The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency score obtained for an individual firm is a point estimate without any confidence interval around it. In recent years, researchers have resorted to bootstrapping in order to generate empirical distributions of efficiency scores. This procedure assumes that all firms have the same probability of getting an efficiency score from any specified interval within the [0,1] range. We propose a bootstrap procedure that empirically generates the conditional distribution of efficiency for each individual firm given systematic factors that influence its efficiency. Instead of resampling directly from the pooled DEA scores, we first regress these scores on a set of explanatory variables not included at the DEA stage and bootstrap the residuals from this regression. These pseudo-efficiency scores incorporate the systematic effects of unit-specific factors along with the contribution of the randomly drawn residual. Data from the U.S. airline industry are utilized in an empirical application.

A categorical data analysis approach to estimation of demographic characteristics for Texas county populations

The need for timely population data for health planning and Indicators of need has Increased the demand for population estimates. The data required to produce estimates is difficult to obtain and the process is time consuming. Estimation methods that require less effort and fewer data are needed. The structure preserving estimator (SPREE) is a promising technique not previously used to estimate county population characteristics. This study first uses traditional regression estimation techniques to produce estimates of county population totals. Then the structure preserving estimator, using the results produced in the first phase as constraints, is evaluated.^ Regression methods are among the most frequently used demographic methods for estimating populations. These methods use symptomatic indicators to predict population change. This research evaluates three regression methods to determine which will produce the best estimates based on the 1970 to 1980 indicators of population change. Strategies for stratifying data to improve the ability of the methods to predict change were tested. Difference-correlation using PMSA strata produced the equation which fit the data the best. Regression diagnostics were used to evaluate the residuals.^ The second phase of this study is to evaluate use of the structure preserving estimator in making estimates of population characteristics. The SPREE estimation approach uses existing data (the association structure) to establish the relationship between the variable of interest and the associated variable(s) at the county level. Marginals at the state level (the allocation structure) supply the current relationship between the variables. The full allocation structure model uses current estimates of county population totals to limit the magnitude of county estimates. The limited full allocation structure model has no constraints on county size. The 1970 county census age - gender population provides the association structure, the allocation structure is the 1980 state age - gender distribution.^ The full allocation model produces good estimates of the 1980 county age - gender populations. An unanticipated finding of this research is that the limited full allocation model produces estimates of county population totals that are superior to those produced by the regression methods. The full allocation model is used to produce estimates of 1986 county population characteristics. ^

Spatial analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality and air pollution in Harris County, Texas

The association between fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was spatially analyzed for Harris County, Texas, at the census tract level. The objective was to assess how increased PM2.5 exposure related to CVD mortality in this area while controlling for race, income, education, and age. An estimated exposure raster was created for Harris County using Kriging to estimate the PM2.5 exposure at the census tract level. The PM2.5 exposure and the CVD mortality rates were analyzed in an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model and the residuals were subsequently assessed for spatial autocorrelation. Race, median household income, and age were all found to be significant (p<0.05) predictors in the model. This study found that for every one μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure, holding age and education variables constant, an increase of 16.57 CVD deaths per 100,000 would be predicted for increased minimum exposure values and an increase of 14.47 CVD deaths per 100,000 would be predicted for increased maximum exposure values. This finding supports previous studies associating PM2.5 exposure with CVD mortality. This study further identified the areas of greatest PM2.5 exposure in Harris County as being the geographical locations of populations with the highest risk of CVD (i.e., predominantly older, low-income populations with a predominance of African Americans). The magnitude of the effect of PM2.5 exposure on CVD mortality rates in the study region indicates a need for further community-level studies in Harris County, and suggests that reducing excess PM2.5 exposure would reduce CVD mortality.^

Using spatial linear models with SAR and CAR structure to examine Texas lung cancer incidence rates

Scholars have found that socioeconomic status was one of the key factors that influenced early-stage lung cancer incidence rates in a variety of regions. This thesis examined the association between median household income and lung cancer incidence rates in Texas counties. A total of 254 individual counties in Texas with corresponding lung cancer incidence rates from 2004 to 2008 and median household incomes in 2006 were collected from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance System. A simple linear model and spatial linear models with two structures, Simultaneous Autoregressive Structure (SAR) and Conditional Autoregressive Structure (CAR), were used to link median household income and lung cancer incidence rates in Texas. The residuals of the spatial linear models were analyzed with Moran's I and Geary's C statistics, and the statistical results were used to detect similar lung cancer incidence rate clusters and disease patterns in Texas.^

Analysis of life expectancy using linear and nonlinear models

Life expectancy has consistently increased over the last 150 years due to improvements in nutrition, medicine, and public health. Several studies found that in many developed countries, life expectancy continued to rise following a nearly linear trend, which was contrary to a common belief that the rate of improvement in life expectancy would decelerate and was fit with an S-shaped curve. Using samples of countries that exhibited a wide range of economic development levels, we explored the change in life expectancy over time by employing both nonlinear and linear models. We then observed if there were any significant differences in estimates between linear models, assuming an auto-correlated error structure. When data did not have a sigmoidal shape, nonlinear growth models sometimes failed to provide meaningful parameter estimates. The existence of an inflection point and asymptotes in the growth models made them inflexible with life expectancy data. In linear models, there was no significant difference in the life expectancy growth rate and future estimates between ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS). However, the generalized least squares model was more robust because the data involved time-series variables and residuals were positively correlated. ^

Composition of minerals and rocks from the Markov Deep, Central Atlantic

The paper presents materials on composition and texture of weakly serpentinized ultrabasic rocks from the western and eastern walls of the Markov Deep (5°30.6'-5°32.4'N) in the rift valley of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Predominant harzburgites with protogranular and porphyroclastic textures contain two major generations of minerals: the first generation composes the bulk of rocks and consists of Ol_89.8-90.4 + En_90.2-90.8 + Di_91.8 + Chr (Cr#32.3-36.6, Mg#67.2-70.0), while the second generation composes very thin branching veinlets and consists of PlAn_32-47 + Ol_74.3-77.1 + Opx_55.7-71.9 + Cpx_67.5 + Amph_53.7-74.2 + Ilm. Syndeformational olivine neoblasts in recrystallization zones are highly magnesian. Concentrations and covariations of major elements in harzburgites indicate that these rocks are depleted in mantle residues (high Mg# of minerals and whole-rock samples and low in CaO, Al2O3, and TiO2) that are significantly enriched in trace HFSE and REE (Zr, Hf, Y, LREE, and all REE). Mineralogy and geochemistry of harzburgites were formed by interaction of mantle residues with hydrous, strongly fractionated melts that impregnated them. Mineral composition of veinlets in harzburgites and mineralogical-geochemical characteristics of related plagiogranites and gabbronorites suggest that these plagiogranites were produced by melt residuals after crystallization of gabbronorites. Modern characteristics of harzburgites were shaped by the following processes: (i) partial melting of mantle material simultaneously with its subsolidus deformations, (ii) brittle-plastic deformations associated with cataclastic flow and recrystallization, and (iii) melt percolation along zones of maximal stress relief and interaction of this melt with magnesian mantle residue.

Stable isotope ratios of foraminifera from sediment cores off northeastern Brazil

The western South Atlantic boundary currents represent a sensitive system within the global thermohaline circulation (THC). We investigated the impact of deglacial THC changes on the western tropical Atlantic studied in six high resolution sediment cores from the upper continental slope of Brazil. The stratigraphy of the cores is mainly based on 14C AMS dating of monospecific foraminiferal samples. Changes in the upper layer tropical ocean during the deglaciation are inferred from stable oxygen isotope measurements on planktic and benthic foraminifera. Variations in the delta18O residuals are assumed to be mainly temperature related. During the Oldest and Younger Dryas cooling periods, two major deglacial THC disturbances are reported from North Atlantic sediment cores. Concomitant to the repeated THC slowdown, we observe an upper layer warming in the tropical ocean. A reduced northward heat export from the tropical areas during these periods (weak North Brazil Current) is additionally reflected by low meridional gradients in the stable oxygen records. This generally agrees with results from coupled ocean atmosphere models.

Morphology and size of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma in the North Atlantic

The variability in size and shape of shells of the polar planktonic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma have been quantified in 33 recent surface sediment samples throughout the northern Atlantic Ocean and correlated with the properties of the ambient surface waters. The aim of the study was to determine whether any of the morphological features could be used to reconstruct sea surface properties in the polar realm of the North Atlantic, where most paleotemperature proxies appear to fail. The analyses revealed that shell morphology is only weakly controlled by habitat properties, whereas shell size showed a strong correlation with sea surface temperature. The regression of mean shell size on sea surface temperature revealed the presence of two trends among the sinistrally coiled shells: a continuous increase in shell size with decreasing SST in sediments deposited under polar water masses and a continuous increase in shell size with increasing SST in samples from transitional waters. The second trend mirrors the trend observed for dextrally coiled shells, which are frequent in the same samples and signal the presence of N. incompta. The identical mean shell size trends among the sinistral and dextral specimens in the temperate samples confirms the results of earlier genetic studies which indicated the existence of a small but distinct proportion of opposite coiling in N. incompta, to which the sinistral shells in the temperate samples could be attributed. The linear correlation between mean shell size and sea surface temperature in the polar domain (summer SST < 9 °C) has been used to develop an empirical formula for the reconstruction of past sea surface temperatures from shell sizes in fossil samples. The standard error of the residuals of the linear regression is 2.36 °C (1 sigma), which implies a much larger error than for most paleothermometers, but enough precision to allow resolution between results by individual paleothermometers in the polar domain. The resulting regression model has been applied on two sediment cores spanning the interval from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present day. The results from core PS1906-1 are consistent with ice-free conditions during the LGM in the Norwegian Sea. The SST estimates for the LGM inferred from N. pachyderma shell size are similar or slightly higher than those for the latest Holocene. The results do not indicate anomalously high SST during the glacial and the LGM reconstructions thus appear more consistent with the results from foraminiferal transfer functions and geochemical proxies. Both sediment cores show the highest reconstructed SST during the early Holocene insolation optimum.

Body mass, flipper length, oxidative balance indices and telomere length of king penguin chicks (A. patagonicus) on Possession Island

One of the reasons for animals not to grow as fast as they potentially could is that fast growth has been shown to be associated with reduced lifespan. However, we are still lacking a clear description of the reality of growth-dependent modulation of ageing mechanisms in wild animals. Using the particular growth trajectory of small king penguin chicks naturally exhibiting higher-than-normal growth rate to compensate for the winter break, we tested whether oxidative stress and telomere shortening are related to growth trajectories. Plasma antioxidant defences, oxidative damage levels and telomere length were measured at the beginning and at the end of the post-winter growth period in three groups of chicks (small chicks, which either passed away or survived the growth period, and large chicks). Small chicks that died early during the growth period had the highest level of oxidative damage and the shortest telomere lengths prior to death. Here, we show that small chicks that grew faster did it at the detriment of body maintenance mechanisms as shown by (i) higher oxidative damage and (ii) accelerated telomere loss. Our study provides the first evidence for a mechanistic link between growth and ageing rates under natural conditions.

Low-temperature experiments of sediment core GeoB6229-6 at the South American continental margin off the Rio de la Plata estuary

With various low-temperature experiments performed on magnetic mineral extracts of marine sedimentary deposits from the Argentine continental slope near the Rio de la Plata estuary, a so far unreported style of partial magnetic self-reversal has been detected. In these sediments the sulphate-methane transition (SMT) zone is situated at depths between 4 and 8 m, where reductive diagenesis severely alters the magnetic mineral assemblage. Throughout the sediment column magnetite and ilmenite are present together with titanomagnetite and titanohematite of varying compositions. In the SMT zone (titano-)magnetite only occurs as inclusions in a siliceous matrix and as intergrowths with lamellar ilmenite and titanium-rich titanohematite, originating from high temperature deuteric oxidation within the volcanic host rocks. These abundant structures were visualized by scanning electron microscopy and analysed by energy dispersive spectroscopy. Warming of field-cooled and zero-field-cooled low-temperature saturation remanence displays magnetic phase transitions of titanium-rich titanohematite below 50 K and the Verwey transition of magnetite. A prominent irreversible decline characterizes zero-field cooling of room temperature saturation remanence. It typically sets out at ~210 K and is most clearly developed in the lower part of the SMT zone, where low-temperature hysteresis measurements identified ~210 K as the blocking temperature range of a titanohematite phase with a Curie temperature of around 240 K. The mechanism responsible for the marked loss of remanence is, therefore, sought in partial magnetic self-reversal by magnetostatic interaction of (titano-)magnetite and titanohematite. When titanohematite becomes ferrimagnetic upon cooling, its spontaneous magnetic moments order antiparallel to the (titano-)magnetite remanence causing an drastic initial decrease of global magnetization. The loss of remanence during subsequent further cooling appears to result from two combined effects (1) magnetic interaction between the two phases by which the (titano-)magnetite domain structure is substantially modified and (2) low-temperature demagnetization of (titano-)magnetite due to decreasing magnetocrystalline anisotropy. The depletion of titanomagnetite and superior preservation of titanohematite is characteristic for strongly reducing sedimentary environments. Typical residuals of magnetic mineral assemblages derived from basaltic volcanics will be intergrowths of titanohematite lamellae with titanomagnetite relics. Low-temperature remanence cycling is, therefore, proposed as a diagnostic method to magnetically characterize such alteration (palaeo-)environments.

n-Alkanes and lignin in bottom sediments of the Norwegian Sea

Investigations of bottom sediments from the central and northern parts of the Norwegian Sea including study regions at the Storegga landslide, the Haakon Mosby mud volcano, and Knipovich Ridge were carried out. Concentration of n-alkanes in bottom sediments from these regions ranges from 0.53 to 22.1 µg/g of dry sediments that corresponds to 0.02-1.97% of Corg. Molecular composition of hydrocarbons indicates mixed allochtonous-authochtonous genesis of total organic matter (TOC) formed by hydrobiota and residuals of terrestrial plants. Terrigenous organic mater dominates in bottom sediments. Active redox, microbial and thermolytic processes of organic matter transformation take place in the sedimentary mass. Special character of chromatographic spectra of n-alkane distribution in both low and high-molecular ranges, as well as increased naphtene contents can be interpreted as a sign of oil hydrocarbon generation from maternal organic matter as a result of thermocatalytic reactions within sedimentary mass and their displacement into the upper sedimentary layers. Molecular compositions and concentrations of phenols and lignin were determined in core samples from the Norwegian Sea. Total concentration of phenols in the cores ranges from 8.1 to 101.8 (µg/g of dry sediments that corresponds to 0.15-1.15% of TOC. Lignin concentration was estimated at 21.0-459.0 µg/g of dry sediments (0.59-7.9% of ?org. Phenol compounds of p-hydroxybenzoic, vanillin, syringyl and cinnamyl families as basic components of lignin macromolecules were identified. It was found that sea currents and aerosols are the main contributors of lignin into the abyssal part of the Norwegian Sea.

(Figure 3d) Export production reconstruction based on planktonic foraminiferal sampled in surface sediments

To reconstruct Export Productivity (Pexp), 27 taxonomic categories of the planktonic foraminifera census data were used with the modern analog technique SIMMAX 28 (Pflaumann et al., 1996, doi:10.1029/95PA01743; 2003, doi:10.1029/2002PA000774). To the 26 taxonomic groups widely used and listed in Kucera et al. (2005, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.07.014), Turborotalita humilis was added in our calibration as it is associated with the PCC source region (Meggers et al., 2002, doi:10.1016/S0967-0645(02)00103-0). The modern analog file is based on the Iberian margin database (Salgueiro et al., 2008, doi:10.1016/j.marmicro.2007.09.003) combined with the North Atlantic surface samples used by the MARGO project (Kucera et al., 2005). This results in a total of 999 analogs for Pexp. Modern oceanic primary productivity (PP) is obtained for each site by averaging 12 monthly primary productivity values for a 8-year period (1978-1986) that were estimated from satellite color data (CZCS) and gridded at 0.5° latitude - longitude fields (Antoine et al., 1996, doi:10.1029/95GB02832). Export Productivity (Pexp) was calculated from the PP values following the empirical relationship Pexp = PP**2/400 for primary production below 200 gC/m**2/yr, and Pexp = PP/2 for primary production above 200 gC/m2/yr (Eppley and Peterson, 1979, doi:10.1038/282677a0; Sarnthein et al., 1988, doi:10.1029/PA003i003p00361). The residuals gives the differences between satellite based Pexp and foraminiferal Pexp.

The estimation of truncation error by tau-estimation revisited

The aim of this paper was to accurately estimate the local truncation error of partial differential equations, that are numerically solved using a finite difference or finite volume approach on structured and unstructured meshes. In this work, we approximated the local truncation error using the @t-estimation procedure, which aims to compare the residuals on a sequence of grids with different spacing. First, we focused the analysis on one-dimensional scalar linear and non-linear test cases to examine the accuracy of the estimation of the truncation error for both finite difference and finite volume approaches on different grid topologies. Then, we extended the analysis to two-dimensional problems: first on linear and non-linear scalar equations and finally on the Euler equations. We demonstrated that this approach yields a highly accurate estimation of the truncation error if some conditions are fulfilled. These conditions are related to the accuracy of the restriction operators, the choice of the boundary conditions, the distortion of the grids and the magnitude of the iteration error.

Evaluation and improvement of empirical models of global solar irradiation: Case study northern Spain

This paper presents a new methodology to build parametric models to estimate global solar irradiation adjusted to specific on-site characteristics based on the evaluation of variable im- portance. Thus, those variables higly correlated to solar irradiation on a site are implemented in the model and therefore, different models might be proposed under different climates. This methodology is applied in a study case in La Rioja region (northern Spain). A new model is proposed and evaluated on stability and accuracy against a review of twenty-two already exist- ing parametric models based on temperatures and rainfall in seventeen meteorological stations in La Rioja. The methodology of model evaluation is based on bootstrapping, which leads to achieve a high level of confidence in model calibration and validation from short time series (in this case five years, from 2007 to 2011). The model proposed improves the estimates of the other twenty-two models with average mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.195 MJ/m2 day and average confidence interval width (95% C.I., n=100) of 0.261 MJ/m2 day. 41.65% of the daily residuals in the case of SIAR and 20.12% in that of SOS Rioja fall within the uncertainty tolerance of the pyranometers of the two networks (10% and 5%, respectively). Relative differences between measured and estimated irradiation on an annual cumulative basis are below 4.82%. Thus, the proposed model might be useful to estimate annual sums of global solar irradiation, reaching insignificant differences between measurements from pyranometers.