World food and agriculture: Outlook for the medium and longer term

The world has been making progress in improving food security, as measured by the per person availability of food for direct human consumption. However, progress has been very uneven, and many developing countries have failed to participate in such progress. In some countries, the food security situation is today worse than 20 years ago. The persistence of food insecurity does not reflect so much a lack of capacity of the world as a whole to increase food production to whatever level would be required for everyone to have consumption levels assuring satisfactory nutrition. The world already produces sufficient food. The undernourished and the food-insecure persons are in these conditions because they are poor in terms of income with which to purchase food or in terms of access to agricultural resources, education, technology, infrastructure, credit, etc., to produce their own food. Economic development failures account for the persistence of poverty and food insecurity. In the majority of countries with severe food-security problems, the greatest part of the poor and food-insecure population depend greatly on local agriculture for a living. In such cases, development failures are often tantamount to failures of agricultural development. Development of agriculture is seen as the first crucial step toward broader development, reduction of poverty and food insecurity, and eventually freedom from excessive economic dependence on poor agricultural resources. Projections indicate that progress would continue, but at a pace and pattern that would be insufficient for the incidence of undernutrition to be reduced significantly in the medium-term future. As in the past, world agricultural production is likely to keep up with, and perhaps tend to exceed, the growth of the effective demand for food. The problem will continue to be one of persistence of poverty, leading to growth of the effective demand for food on the part of the poor that would fall short of that required for them to attain levels of consumption compatible with freedom from undernutrition.

Global and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies

The development of improved technology for agricultural production and its diffusion to farmers is a process requiring investment and time. A large number of studies of this process have been undertaken. The findings of these studies have been incorporated into a quantitative policy model projecting supplies of commodities (in terms of area and crop yields), equilibrium prices, and international trade volumes to the year 2020. These projections show that a “global food crisis,” as would be manifested in high commodity prices, is unlikely to occur. The same projections show, however, that in many countries, “local food crisis,” as manifested in low agricultural incomes and associated low food consumption in the presence of low food prices, will occur. Simulations show that delays in the diffusion of modern biotechnology research capabilities to developing countries will exacerbate local food crises. Similarly, global climate change will also exacerbate these crises, accentuating the importance of bringing strengthened research capabilities to developing countries.

Transgenic plants for tropical regions: Some considerations about their development and their transfer to the small farmer

Biotechnological applications, especially transgenic plants, probably hold the most promise in augmenting agricultural production in the first decades of the next millennium. However, the application of these technologies to the agriculture of tropical regions where the largest areas of low productivity are located, and where they are most needed, remains a major challenge. In this paper, some of the important issues that need to be considered to ensure that plant biotechnology is effectively transferred to the developing world are discussed.

Escenarios productivos diversos en Mendoza : En la búsqueda de una fruticultura comercial (1900-1930)

La conformación de una economía regional diversificada en Mendoza encuentra antecedentes en las primeras décadas del siglo XX. En efecto, los sectores dirigentes, empresarios y técnicos buscaron alternativas con vistas a matizar los efectos de crisis cíclicas que afectaban a la vitivinicultura. De modo que este período tiene un marcado carácter transicional, en el que se verifica una complejización del panorama agroproductivo como resultado de la conjunción de diversos factores que son detectados y analizados en este trabajo

El contratismo y su integración al modelo de agronegocios : Producción y servicios en la región pampeana

Si bien existen estudios sobre el desarrollo de los prestadores de servicios agropecuarios de labores culturales -"contratistas" en la jerga nativa-, a lo largo del siglo XX, el crecimiento exponencial de esta actividad y las vertiginosas dinámicas de innovación tecnológica para el agro en relación a este rubro, han abierto nuevos interrogantes respecto de las características productivas y las identidades construidas por estos sujetos. El objetivo de este trabajo es dar cuenta de las distintas estrategias desplegadas respecto a la compra-venta de servicios por parte de estos actores de la producción agrícola, así como también comprender cómo estas estrategias se relacionan con el modelo productivo predominante. El acercamiento que proponemos a continuación, es en base a un relevamiento cuantitativo de hogares de productores agropecuarios (provincias de Buenos Aires y de Santa Fe) y a entrevistas cualitativas sobre trayectorias de vida y empresariales. A partir de la construcción de estos datos analizamos las características de aquellos que implementaron la prestación de servicios agrícolas, en base a las dimensiones materiales e identitarias estudiadas

Efeitos dos agrotóxicos Kraft®36EC e Score®250EC (e seus princípios ativos) em ecossistemas aquáticos: análises comparativas e ecossistêmicas

Com o advento da agricultura ampliou-se a produção alimentar e os bens de consumo, no entanto, os riscos ambientais também foram maximizados em função da adoção de técnicas produtivas baseadas no uso intensivo de insumos agrícolas. Esta problemática é mundial, embora mais evidenciada nos países em desenvolvimento e que tem, na produção agrícola, a base de sua economia. O Brasil enquadra-se nesta situação e desde 2009 é considerado o maior consumidor de agrotóxicos do mundo, criando um cenário de risco ambiental e de saúde humana. Os efeitos ambientais, base deste estudo, estão relacionados não somente à perda de espécies não-alvo, uma vez que os agrotóxicos não são seletivos, mas também as alterações em nível ecossistêmico, a qual se relaciona com as perdas das funções e dos serviços gerados pelos sistemas naturais. Adiciona-se a esta complexidade, a forma de ação de cada agrotóxico, a distribuição dos mesmos nos diferentes compartimentos (ar, solo e água), o período de permanência de cada um, as relações sinérgicas decorrentes das interações entre diferentes produtos, a formação de subprodutos no processo de degradação, entre outros fatores, como as diferenças existentes entre o ingrediente ativo e a formulação comercial, na qual existem os chamados ingredientes inertes em sua composição, os quais podem ser muito mais tóxicos para espécies e ecossistemas. Considerando esta abordagem, a presente pesquisa foi desenvolvida com base na realidade de um local de referência, o município de Bom Repouso (MG/BR), no qual a intensificação da produção de morango e batata tem trazido uma série de riscos sociais e ambientais. Semelhante a outras regiões produtivas do país, o uso de agrotóxicos é recorrente, amplo e irrestrito, com destaque para as formulações comerciais Kraft®36EC e Score®250EC, as quais, juntamente com seus respectivos ingredientes ativos (abamectina e difenoconazol), foram avaliadas por meio de testes de toxicidade com espécies de diferentes níveis tróficos representativas de um ecossistema aquático, gerando informações que foram avaliadas em nível de espécie e de ecossistema, simulando o cenário de aplicação dos produtos no local de referência. Os resultados obtidos permitiram concluir sobre as diferenças de sensibilidade das espécies e quais seriam as mais indicadas para se avaliar os efeitos tóxicos de ambos os agrotóxicos; os efeitos diferenciados entre a formulação comercial e os ingredientes ativos; bem como as respostas em termos de espécies e de ecossistemas, demonstrando a necessidade de que ambas as análises sejam consideradas na avaliação de risco ecológico.

Zinco para arroz e soja: doses, aproveitamento pelas culturas, fitodisponibilidade e formas desse elemento no solo

A deficiência de Zn no solo causa efeitos indesejáveis na produção agrícola, pois a baixa disponibilidade deste micronutriente para as plantas promove a diminuição da atividade enzimática, além da deficiência deste elemento na alimentação, que pode levar ao estado de subnutrição. Tendo em vista a problemática do Zn no sistema solo-planta e suas variações nos compartimentos do solo, é importante a avaliação de sua fitodisponibilidade e as frações do solo que este elemento está associado. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a fitodisponibilidade e a compartimentalização de Zn no solo, para as culturas de arroz (Oryza sativa L.) e soja (Glycine max L. Merrill) e avaliar o efeito das doses de Zn sobre a nutrição e exportação deste nutriente pela cultura. Utilizou-se como plantas teste as culturas de arroz e soja para avaliar o efeito das doses de Zn sobre a nutrição e translocação deste nutriente até os grãos. Para tanto, uma amostra de um Latossolo Vermelho, textura argilosa da região de Piracicaba (SP) foi utilizada e ZnCl2 (marcado com 65Zn) como fonte. O experimento foi conduzido em casa de vegetação em DIC, com cinco doses de Zn (0, 1, 2, 4 e 8 mg kg-1 de solo), com quatro repetições. O experimento foi conduzido até a formação de grãos e foi realizada determinação de Zn por Espectrômetria de Absorção Atômica após digestão nitroperclórica e contagem do 65Zn nas partes da planta: parte aérea (PA) e panícula (P), para arroz e PA, vagem (V) e grão (G), para soja. Calculou-se a quantidade de Zn proveniente da fonte (Znpf) nas partes das plantas e o aproveitamento do Zn da fonte pelas culturas (Ap). Nas amostras de solo foram realizadas extrações por DTPA (ZnDTPA) e Mehlich-1 (ZnM1) em duas subamostragens (t1 e t2), antes da semeadura e florescimento, respectivamente. O fracionamento de Zn foi realizado em amostras de t2 nas frações: trocável (ZnTroc); ligado a carbonatos (ZnCarb); a matéria orgânica (ZnMO); a óxidos (ZnOxi) e residual (Znres). Adicionalmente, foi realizada análise do teor pseudo-total de Zn (ZnPST). Os dados obtidos foram submetidos à análise de variância pelo teste-F a 95 % de probabilidade, ajuste das variáveis em função das doses por regressões e teste de média e análises de correlações entre as principais variáveis respostas. O Zn acumulado total na planta se ajustou à regressão linear em função do aumento das doses, entretanto ao analisar as partes separadamente, só houve diferença entre as doses para a variável PA em ambas as culturas. O Znpf total nas plantas apresentou incremento com a adição das doses crescentes de Zn ao solo, entretanto, eu aproveitamento foi baixo, 12 e 8,75 % para arroz e soja, respectivamente. As doses de ZnCl2 adicionadas ao solo, aumentaram a concentração de Zn presente nas frações ZnTroc > ZnMO > ZnCarb, em ordem decrescente. O Zn total acumulado nas plantas de arroz e soja apresentam correlações crescentes para os extratores DTPA e M1 nas duas subamostragens (t1 e t2), em função das doses avaliadas. O Zn extraído pelo DTPA ou M1, apresentaram correlação significativa com o Zn extraído nas frações, na ordem decrescente, ZnTroc > ZnCarb > ZnMO

Familia y discapacidad intelectual: un estudio bibliométrico de 2000-2011 a través del Social Science Citation Index

El objetivo de este estudio fue realizar un análisis bibliométrico de la producción científica publicada entre el año 2000 y 2011 sobre familia y discapacidad intelectual, con la finalidad de ofrecer una descripción global del estado actual de la investigación en dicho ámbito. La base de datos empleada ha sido Social Science Citation lndex extrayendo una muestra de 952 artículos. Fueron analizados el año de publicación, las revistas, el índice de autoría, las temáticas, el tipo de investigación, las citas y el idioma. A por1ir de los resultados, se observó una periodicidad estable en cuanto a los indicadores de producción y una identificación de temáticas que mantienen una relación con la realidad social y las necesidades que envuelve este campo de conocimiento. El presente trabajo permite conocer la evolución que ha seguido el estudio de la familia y la discapacidad intelectual en el periodo temporal indicado y ofrece un amplio conocimiento sobre las investigaciones realizadas al respecto.

Recursos hídricos superficiais vs subterrâneos na Várzea da Nazaré : implicações na qualidade da água

Tese de doutoramento, Geologia (Hidrogeologia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

The transformation of agriculture in Ukraine: From collective farms to agroholdings. OSW Commentary No. 127, 06.02.2014

In recent years, Ukraine’s agriculture has been consistently improving and has been the only part of the country’s economy to buck the recession. According to preliminary estimates, in 2013 agricultural production increased by 13.7% - in contrast to a 4.7% decline in the industrial sector. According to official statistics, Ukraine’s industrial production was up 40% in the final months of 2013 when compared to the same period of 2012. This translated into an unexpected gain in fourth-quarter GDP growth (+3.7%) and prevented an annual drop in GDP. Crop production, and particularly the production of grain, hit a record high: in 2013, Ukraine produced 63 million tonnes of grain, outperforming its best ever harvest of 2011 (56.7 million tonnes). The value of Ukraine’s agricultural and food exports increased from US$4.3 billion in 2005 to US$17.9 billion in 2012, and currently accounts for a quarter of Ukraine’s total exports. Economic forecasts suggest that in the current marketing year (July 2013 - June 2014) Ukraine will sell more than 30 million tonnes of grain to foreign markets, making it the world’s second biggest grain exporter, after the United States.

Rural Labour Market Developments in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 5, September 2011

The significant changes in the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of human resources in rural Macedonia can be explained by the continued trend of emigration from villages to urban areas and abroad. The intensity of emigration has altered the demographic structure and reproductive base of the rural population, along with the income of rural households. The rural and agricultural labour market faces a mismatch with respect to the unfavourable age, education and spatial distribution of the total labour force. A reduction in the participation of women in the agricultural labour force is a new feature. The overall transformation is apparent in the income structure of rural households. An increase in the share of households with mixed income sources notably stems from households that receive remittances and foreign currency funds from family members abroad. The demographic revitalisation of rural areas depends on economic revitalisation, with a more rational use of the labour force and human resources, as well as a restructuring of agricultural production and agricultural holdings. In addition, improvements are necessary in the functioning of market institutions to better meet the needs of smaller farmers and the rural economy.

Ownership and Investment Behaviour in Transition Countries: A Case Study of Collective and Corporate Farms in the Czech Republic. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 17, February 2012

Cooperative and corporate farms have retained an important role for agricultural production in many transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Despite this importance, these farms' ownership structure, and particularly the ownership's effect on their investment activity, which is vital for efficient restructuring and the sector's future development, are still not well understood. This paper explores the ownership-investment relationship using data on Czech farms from 1997 to 2008. We allow for ownership-specific variability in farm investment behaviour analyzed by utilizing an error-correction accelerator model. Empirical results suggest significant differences in the level of investment activity, responsiveness to market signals, investment lumpiness, as well as investment sensitivity to financial variables among farms with different ownership characteristics. These differences imply that the internal structure of the Czech cooperative and corporate farms will be developing in the direction of a decreasing number of owners and an increasing ownership concentration.

RED vs. REDD: Biofuel Policy vs. Forest Conservation. Factor Markets Working Document No. 41, May 2013

This paper assesses the complex interplay between global Renewable Energy Directives (RED) and the United Nations programme to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). We examine the interaction of the two policies using a scenario approach with a recursive-dynamic global Computable General Equilibrium model. The consequences of a global biofuel directive on worldwide land use, agricultural production, international trade flows, food prices and food security out to 2030 are evaluated with and without a strict global REDD policy. We address a key methodological challenge of how to model the supply of land in the face of restrictions over its availability, as arises under the REDD policy. The paper introduces a flexible land supply function, which allows for large changes in the total potential land availability for agriculture. Our results show that whilst both RED and REDD are designed to reduce emissions, they have opposing impacts on land use. RED policies are found to extend land use whereas the REDD policy leads to an overall reduction in land use and intensification of agriculture. Strict REDD policies to protect forest and woodland lead to higher land prices in all regions. World food prices are slightly higher overall with some significant regional increases, notably in Southern Africa and Indonesia, leading to reductions in food security in these countries. This said, real food prices in 2030 are still lower than the 2010 level, even with the RED and REDD policies in place. Overall this suggests that RED and REDD are feasible from a worldwide perspective, although the results show that there are some regional problems that need to be resolved. The results show that countries directly affected by forest and woodland protection would be the most economically vulnerable when the REDD policy is implemented. The introduction of REDD policies reduces global trade in agricultural products and moves some developing countries to a net importing position for agricultural products. This suggests that the protection of forests and woodlands in these regions reverses their comparative advantage as they move from being land-abundant to land-scarce regions. The full REDD policy setting, however, foresees providing compensation to these countries to cover their economic losses.

Factor Markets in General Computable Equilibrium Models. Factor Markets Working Document No. 47, May 2013

One objective of Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models is the analysis of economy-wide effects of policy measures. The focus of the Factor Markets project is to analyse the functioning of factor markets for agriculture in the EU-27, including the Candidate Countries. While agricultural and food markets are fully integrated in a European single market, subject to an EU-wide common policy, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), this is not the case for the agricultural factor markets capital, labour and land. There are partly serious differences with regard to member state regulations and institutions affecting land, labour and capital markets. The presentation of this heterogeneity of factor markets amongst EU Member States have been implemented in the CGE models to improve model-based analyses of the CAP and other policy measures affecting agricultural production. This final report comprises the outcome of a systematic extension and improvement of the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) model starting from an overview of the current state of the art to represent factor markets in CGE models to a description of work on labour, land and capital in MAGNET.

Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Effects on Water Resources and Agriculture in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries. MEDPRO Technical Paper No. 28/March 2013

This study aims at assessing the socio-economic and environmental effects of different societal and human development scenarios and climate change in the water-scarce southern and eastern Mediterranean. The study develops a two-stage modelling methodology that includes an econometric analysis for the southern and eastern Mediterranean region as a whole and a detailed, integrated socioecological assessment focusing on Jordan, Syria and Morocco. The results show that water resources will be under increasing stress in future years. In spite of country differences, a future path of sustainable development is possible in the region. Water withdrawals could decrease, preserving renewable water resources and reversing the negative effects on agricultural production and rural society. This, however, requires a combination across the region of technical, managerial, economic, social and institutional changes that together foster a substantive structural change. A balanced implementation of water supply-enhancing and demand-management measures along with improved governance are key to attaining a cost-effective sustainable future in which economic growth, a population increase and trade expansion are compatible with the conservation of water resources.