Recursive pathways to marginal likelihood estimation with prior-sensitivity analysis

We investigate the utility to computational Bayesian analyses of a particular family of recursive marginal likelihood estimators characterized by the (equivalent) algorithms known as "biased sampling" or "reverse logistic regression" in the statistics literature and "the density of states" in physics. Through a pair of numerical examples (including mixture modeling of the well-known galaxy dataset) we highlight the remarkable diversity of sampling schemes amenable to such recursive normalization, as well as the notable efficiency of the resulting pseudo-mixture distributions for gauging prior-sensitivity in the Bayesian model selection context. Our key theoretical contributions are to introduce a novel heuristic ("thermodynamic integration via importance sampling") for qualifying the role of the bridging sequence in this procedure, and to reveal various connections between these recursive estimators and the nested sampling technique.

Numerical estimation of 3D mechanical forces exerted by cells on non-linear materials

The exchange of physical forces in both cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions play a significant role in a variety of physiological and pathological processes, such as cell migration, cancer metastasis, inflammation and wound healing. Therefore, great interest exists in accurately quantifying the forces that cells exert on their substrate during migration. Traction Force Microscopy (TFM) is the most widely used method for measuring cell traction forces. Several mathematical techniques have been developed to estimate forces from TFM experiments. However, certain simplifications are commonly assumed, such as linear elasticity of the materials and/or free geometries, which in some cases may lead to inaccurate results. Here, cellular forces are numerically estimated by solving a minimization problem that combines multiple non-linear FEM solutions. Our simulations, free from constraints on the geometrical and the mechanical conditions, show that forces are predicted with higher accuracy than when using the standard approaches.

Health Law's Kaleidoscope : Health Law Rights in a Global Age

Within contemporary society the themes of globalization, health and regulation interlock in complex patterns, changing in response to the mix of cultural differences, regulatory preferences and available resources. To turn the kaleidoscope and to change the mix is to change the pattern. This book is about those patterns as they arise in the contemporary legal, health and ethical context, exploring the transformations and challenges brought by technological change and the regulatory options in the contemporary global village.

Age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity in youth

Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity (PA) in a population-based sample of students in grades 1–12. Methods Participants (185 male, 190 female) wore a CSA 7164 accelerometer for 7 consecutive days. To examine age-related trends, students were grouped as follows: grades 1–3 (N = 90), grades 4–6 (N = 91), grades 7–9 (N = 96), and grades 10–12 (N = 92). Bouts of PA and minutes spent in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and vigorous PA (VPA) were examined. Results Daily MVPA and VPA exhibited a significant inverse relationship with grade level, with the largest differences occurring between grades 1–3 and 4–6. Boys were more active than girls; however, for overall PA, the magnitudes of the gender differences were modest. Participation in continuous 20-min bouts of PA was low to nonexistent. Conclusion Our results support the notion that PA declines rapidly during childhood and adolescence and that accelerometers are feasible alternatives to self-report methods in moderately sized population-level surveillance studies.

Evidence based physical activity for school-age youth

Objectives To review the effects of physical activity on health and behavior outcomes and develop evidence-based recommendations for physical activity in youth. Study design A systematic literature review identified 850 articles; additional papers were identified by the expert panelists. Articles in the identified outcome areas were reviewed, evaluated and summarized by an expert panelist. The strength of the evidence, conclusions, key issues, and gaps in the evidence were abstracted in a standardized format and presented and discussed by panelists and organizational representatives. Results Most intervention studies used supervised programs of moderate to vigorous physical activity of 30 to 45 minutes duration 3 to 5 days per week. The panel believed that a greater amount of physical activity would be necessary to achieve similar beneficial effects on health and behavioral outcomes in ordinary daily circumstances (typically intermittent and unsupervised activity). Conclusion School-age youth should participate daily in 60 minutes or more of moderate to vigorous physical activity that is developmentally appropriate, enjoyable, and involves a variety of activities.

Using the internet to assist court processes : delivery of justice in an electronic age

This article presents an overview of two aspects of the role the internet now plays in the court system - first, the extent to which judges, administrators and court officials at the different levels in the court hierarchy are using the internet to deliver enhanced access to the Australian justice system for the community as a whole, and second, how they have embraced that same technology as an aid for accessing information for better judgment delivery and administration.

Parameter estimation of thrust models of uninhabited airborne systems

This paper presents a method for the estimation of thrust model parameters of uninhabited airborne systems using specific flight tests. Particular tests are proposed to simplify the estimation. The proposed estimation method is based on three steps. The first step uses a regression model in which the thrust is assumed constant. This allows us to obtain biased initial estimates of the aerodynamic coeficients of the surge model. In the second step, a robust nonlinear state estimator is implemented using the initial parameter estimates, and the model is augmented by considering the thrust as random walk. In the third step, the estimate of the thrust obtained by the observer is used to fit a polynomial model in terms of the propeller advanced ratio. We consider a numerical example based on Monte-Carlo simulations to quantify the sampling properties of the proposed estimator given realistic flight conditions.

Self-regulation from birth to age seven : associations with maternal mental health, parenting, and social, emotional and behavioural outcomes for children

Self-regulation refers to our individual capacities to regulate our behaviours, emotions, and thoughts, with these skills developing rapidly across early childhood. This thesis examined sleep, emotional, and cognitive regulation development, and related parental influences, for children participating in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. Important longitudinal associations among children's self-regulation, maternal mental health, parenting, and later behaviour problems for children were also investigated. A unique contribution of this research was a prevalence estimate of early childhood self-regulation problems in Australian children that was documented for the first time.

Functional independence following subacute inpatient rehabilitation was not affected by age among older patients recovering from cardiac-related hospital admissions

Introduction Older people recovering from cardiac events requiring an acute hospital admission may experience a decline in physical function limiting their ability to return home to their previous accommodation. Subacute inpatient rehabilitation therapies have potential to assist recovery of physical functioning. However, it is unknown whether age influences the length of stay or physical functioning at discharge from subacute inpatient rehabilitation for this population. Objectives This study examined the outcomes of a cohort of older patients recovering from a cardiac event requiring hospitalisation to investigate the association between age and physical function at discharge, as well as age and length of rehabilitation stay. Methods Participants included 145 consecutive inpatient admissions to a subacute geriatric assessment and rehabilitation unit with a cardiac condition as their primary reason for hospital admission. Participants were required to complete a multi-disciplinary physical functioning assessment within 72 hours of admission to the unit, and again within 72 hours prior to discharge from the unit. The primary outcome measure was the Functional Independence Measure motor score. Demographic and clinical information, including length of stay and discharge destination, were also recorded. Results A total n=126 (87%) participants, with a mean (standard deviation) age of 79 (10) years, had both assessments completed and were included in analyses. Participants who had passed away (n=4, 3%), or did not have both assessments completed per protocol were excluded from analyses. Discharge destinations included home (n=101, 80%), residential aged care (n=17, 13%) and another hospital (n=8, 6%). The (median, interquartile range) Functional Independence Measure motor score was higher at discharge (79, 71 to 84) than admission (61, 48 to 71); z=7.75 p<0.001. Age was not associated with Functional Independence Measure motor score at discharge (t= -0.18, p=0.86), or length of stay in the rehabilitation unit (t= -0.52, 0.60). Conclusion Any perception that age may be associated with longer lengths of stay and reduced physical function outcomes among patients with cardiac conditions admitted for subacute inpatient rehabilitation for older adults is not supported data from this investigation. Older age should not be considered a disincentive when considering the suitability of patients with cardiac diagnoses for this type of inpatient rehabilitation or their potential physical functioning outcome.

Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

Sphingolipid distribution changes with age in the human lens

The formation of an internal barrier to the diffusion of small molecules in the lens during middle age is hypothesized to be a key event in the development of age-related nuclear (ARN) cataract. Changes in membrane lipids with age may be responsible. In this study, we investigated the effect of age on the distribution of sphingomyelins, the most abundant lens phospholipids. Human lens sections were initially analyzed by MALDI mass spectrometry imaging. A distinct annular distribution of the dihydrosphingomyelin, DHSM (d18:0/16:0), in the barrier region was observed in 64- and 70-year-old lenses but not in a 23-year-old lens. An increase in the dihydroceramide, DHCer (d18:0/16:0), in the lens nucleus was also observed in the older lenses. These findings were supported by ESI mass spectrometry analysis of lipid extracts from lenses dissected into outer, barrier, and nuclear regions. A subsequent analysis of 18 lenses ages 20-72 years revealed that sphingomyelin levels increased with age in the barrier region until reaching a plateau at approximately 40 years of age. Such changes in lipid composition will have a significant impact on the physical properties of the fiber cell membranes and may be associated with the formation of a barrier.-Deeley, J. M., J. A. Hankin, M. G. Friedrich, R. C. Murphy, R. J. W. Truscott, T. W. Mitchell, and S. J. Blanksby. Sphingolipid distribution changes with age in the human lens. J. Lipid Res. 2010. 51: 2753-2760.

Assessing the threshold temperatures among different age and cause-of-deaths

The relationship between temperature and mortality is non-linear and the effect estimates depend on the threshold temperatures selected. However, little is known about whether threshold temperatures differ with age or cause of deaths in the Southern Hemisphere. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear models to assess the threshold temperatures for mortality from all ages (Dall), aged from 15 to 64 (D15-64), 65- 84(D65-84), ≥85 years (D85+), respiratory (RD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brisbane, Australia, 1996–2004. We examined both hot and cold thresholds, and the lags of up to 15 days for cold effects and 3 days for hot effects. Results show that for the current day, the cold threshold was 20°C and the hot threshold was 28°C for the groups of Dall, D15-64 and D85+. The cold threshold was higher (23°C) for the group of D65-84 and lower (21°C) for the group of CVD. The hot threshold was higher (29°C) for the group of D65-84 and lower (27°C) for the group of RD. Compared to the current day, for the cold effects of up to 15-day lags, the threshold was lower for the group of D15-64, and the thresholds were higher for the groups of D65-84, D85+, RD and CVD; while for the hot effects of 3-day lags, the threshold was higher for the group of D15-64 and the thresholds were lower for the groups of D65-84 and RD. Temperature thresholds appeared to differ with age and death categories. The elderly and deaths from RD and CVD were more sensitive to temperature stress than the adult group. These findings may have implications in the assessment of temperature-related mortality and development of weather/health warning systems.

Validity of accelerometry in ambulatory children and adolescents with cerebral palsy

To evaluate the validity of the ActiGraph accelerometer for the measurement of physical activity intensity in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP) using oxygen uptake (VO 2) as the criterion measure. Thirty children and adolescents with CP (mean age 12.6 ± 2.0 years) wore an ActiGraph 7164 and a Cosmed K4b 2 portable indirect calorimeter during four activities; quiet sitting, comfortable paced walking, brisk paced walking and fast paced walking. VO 2 was converted to METs and activity energy expenditure and classiWed as sedentary, light or moderate-to-vigorous intensity according to the conventions for children. Mean ActiGraph counts min -1 were classiWed as sedentary, light or moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA) intensity using four diVerent sets of cut-points. VO 2 and counts min¡1 increased signiWcantly with increases in walking speed (P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicated that, of the four sets of cut-points evaluated, the Evenson et al. (J Sports Sci 26(14):1557-1565, 2008) cut-points had the highest classiWcation accuracy for sedentary (92%) and MVPA (91%), as well as the second highest classiWcation accuracy for light intensity physical activity (67%). A ROC curve analysis of data from our participants yielded a CP-speciWc cut-point for MVPA that was lower than the Evenson cut-point (2,012 vs. 2,296 counts min¡1), however, the diVerence in classiWcation accuracy was not statistically signiWcant 94% (95% CI = 88.2-97.7%) vs. 91% (95% CI = 83.5-96.5%). In conclusion, among children and adolescents with CP, the ActiGraph is able to diVerentiate between diVerent intensities of walking. The use of the Evenson cut-points will permit the estimation of time spent in MVPA and allows comparisons to be made between activity measured in typically developing adolescents and adolescents with CP. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Advanced pubertal status at age 11 and lower physical activity in adolescent girls

Objective To examine the relationship between pubertal timing and physical activity. Study design A longitudinal sample of 143 adolescent girls was assessed at ages 11 and 13 years. Girls' pubertal development was assessed at age 11 with blood estradiol levels, Tanner breast staging criteria, and parental report of pubertal development. Girls were classified as early maturers (n = 41) or later maturers (n = 102) on the basis of their scores on the 3 pubertal development measures. Dependent variables measured at age 13 were average minutes/day of moderate to vigorous and vigorous physical activity as measured by the ActiGraph accelerometer. Results Early-maturing girls had significantly lower self-reported physical activity and accumulated fewer minutes of moderate to vigorous and vigorous physical activity and accelerometer counts per day at age 13 than later maturing girls. These effects v.-ere independent of differences in percentage body fat and self-reported physical activity at age 11. Conclusion Girls experiencing early pubertal maturation at age 11 reported lower subsequent physical activity at age 13 than their later maturing peers. Pubertal maturation, in particular early maturation relative to peers, may lead to declines in physical activity among adolescent girls.

Cougars, grannies, evil stepmothers, and menopausal hot flashers : roles, representations of age and the non-traditional romance heroine

Cougars, Grannies, Evil Stepmothers, and Menopausal Hot Flashers: Roles, Representations of Age and the Non-traditional Romance Heroine is an examination of the stereotyped roles of age and the under-representation of women over forty as worthy protagonists in romance fiction.