Theoretical insight into diagnosing observation error correlations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

To improve the quantity and impact of observations used in data assimilation it is necessary to take into account the full, potentially correlated, observation error statistics. A number of methods for estimating correlated observation errors exist, but a popular method is a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. The accuracy of the results it yields is unknown as the diagnostic is sensitive to the difference between the exact background and exact observation error covariances and those that are chosen for use within the assimilation. It has often been stated in the literature that the results using this diagnostic are only valid when the background and observation error correlation length scales are well separated. Here we develop new theory relating to the diagnostic. For observations on a 1D periodic domain we are able to the show the effect of changes in the assumed error statistics used in the assimilation on the estimated observation error covariance matrix. We also provide bounds for the estimated observation error variance and eigenvalues of the estimated observation error correlation matrix. We demonstrate that it is still possible to obtain useful results from the diagnostic when the background and observation error length scales are similar. In general, our results suggest that when correlated observation errors are treated as uncorrelated in the assimilation, the diagnostic will underestimate the correlation length scale. We support our theoretical results with simple illustrative examples. These results have potential use for interpreting the derived covariances estimated using an operational system.

How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA

This study investigates flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Respondents to the public survey varied in their perceptions and understandings of flash flood risks in Boulder, and some had misconceptions about flash flood risks, such as the safety of crossing fast-flowing water. About 6% of respondents indicated consistent reversals of US watch-warning alert terminology. However, more in-depth analysis illustrates the multi-dimensional, situationally dependent meanings of flash flood alerts, as well as the importance of evaluating interpretation and use of warning information along with alert terminology. Some public respondents estimated low likelihoods of flash flooding given a flash flood warning; these were associated with lower anticipated likelihood of taking protective action given a warning. Protective action intentions were also lower among respondents who had less trust in flash flood warnings, those who had not made prior preparations for flash flooding, and those who believed themselves to be safer from flash flooding. Additional analysis, using open-ended survey questions about responses to warnings, elucidates the complex, contextual nature of protective decision making during flash flood threats. These findings suggest that warnings can play an important role not only by notifying people that there is a threat and helping motivate people to take protective action, but also by helping people evaluate what actions to take given their situation.

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.

Marketing the Damaged Self: The Construction of Identity in Advertisements Directed Towards People with HIV/AIDS

This paper explores the identities projected in advertisements directed towards HIV positive individuals and people with AIDS. Fifty such advertisements were collected from three popular American magazines for gay men over a period of seven months. Analysis of the ads reveals a paradoxical presentation of people with HIV/AIDS, which offers simultaneous conflicting images of hope and fear, power and weakness, innocence and guilt. An interactive sociolinguistic model through which this contradictory discourse might be understood is presented, drawing on Goffman’s insights on stigma management and the presentation of the self in social interaction. Advertisements directed towards people with HIV/AIDS, it is suggested, present a contradictory discourse in which the advertisers are positioned as ‘the wise’, offering to mediate the conflicting identities of the stigmatized. The identity values enacted in this contradictory discourse are further measured against American conceptions of communication and the self as observed by Carbaugh and others. The possible consequences of these positionings on the roles made available to people with HIV/AIDS in the wider social context are discussed.

Evaluation of the pH and electrical conductivity in milk from jersey cows during the first month of lactation

In order to assess the influence of the colostrum period on pH and, electrical conductivity, we collected 418 milk samples from 127 Jersey cows. The samples were collected from healthy udders that did not present any bacterial growth in the microbiological examination. They were divided into eight groups as follows < 1/2 day; 1/2 and 1 degrees day; 2 degrees day; 3 degrees day; 4 degrees and 5 degrees day; 6 degrees and 7 degrees day; 8 degrees to 15 degrees day; 16 degrees to 30 degrees days of lactation. The samples were collected before milking and the following analyses were conducted: pH, electrical conductivity. In the first 24 hours of lactation, there was an reduction in electrical conductivity value, associated with an increase in pH value. We observed that transition of secretion from colostrum to milk, occurs during the first week of lactation; from 6(rd) day of lactation for pH value and 3(th) day for electrical conductivity value. We recommend the use the following figures as normal ranges for the first 24 hours of lactation (colostrum period): pH <= 6,51 and electrical conductivity <= 6,33 mS/cm; while for the interval between 2(nd) and 7(th) days of lactation (transition from colostrum to milk) we suggest the use of the values as normal ranges: pH <= 6,66 and electrical conductivity <= 5,93 mS/cm.

Biodegradable Films Based on Blends of Gelatin and Poly (Vinyl Alcohol): Effect of PVA Type or Concentration on Some Physical Properties of Films

The aim of this work was to develop biodegradable films based on blends of gelatin and poly (vinyl alcohol) (PVA), without a plasticizer. Firstly, the effect of five types of PVA with different degree of hydrolysis (DH) on the physical properties of films elaborated with blends containing 23.1% PVA was studied. One PVA type was then chosen for the study of the effect of the PVA concentration on the mechanical properties, color, opacity, gloss, and water solubility of the films. The five types of PVA studied allowed for films with different characteristics, but with no direct relationship with the DH of the PVA. Therefore, the PVA Celvol (R) 418 with a DH = 91.8% was chosen for the second part, because they produced films with greater tensile strength. The PVA concentration affected all studied properties of films. These results could be explained by the results of the DSC and FTIR analyses, which showed that some interactions between the gelatin and the PVA occurred depending on the PVA concentration, affecting the crystallinity of the films.

The effect of the degree of hydrolysis of the PVA and the plasticizer concentration on the color, opacity, and thermal and mechanical properties of films based on PVA and gelatin blends

The objective of this work was to study the color, opacity, crystallinity, and the thermal and mechanical properties of films based on blends of gelatin and five different types of PVA [poly(vinyl alcohol)], with and without a plasticizer. The effect of the degree of hydrolysis of the PVA and the glycerol concentration on these properties was studied using colorimetry, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and tensile mechanical tests. All films were essentially colorless (Delta E* < 5) and with low opacity ( Y <= 2.1). The DSC results were typical of partially crystalline materials, showing some phase separation characterized by a glass transition (T(g) = 40-55 degrees C), related to the amorphous part of the material, followed by two endothermic peaks related to the melting (T(m) = 100-160 and 170-210 degrees C) of the crystallites. The XRD results confirmed the crystallinity of the films. The film produced with PVA Celvol((R)) 418 (DH = 91.8%) showed the highest tensile resistance (tensile strength = 38 MPa), for films without plasticizer. However, with glycerol, the above-mentioned PVA and the PVA Celvol((R)) 504 produced the least resistant films of all the PVA types. But, although the mechanical properties of the blended films depended on the type of PVA used, there was no direct relationship between these properties and the degree of hydrolysis of the PVA. The properties studied were more closely dependent on the glycerol concentration. Finally, the mechanical resistance of the films presented a linear relationship with the glass transition temperature of the films. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tenacity and silk investment of two orb weavers: considerations about diversification of the Araneoidea

Orbiculariae consists of two major clades: the cribellate Deinopidea and the much more diverse ecribellate Araneoidea. It has been hypothesized that the higher diversity of Araneoidea is a consequence of the superiority of the viscid orb web. However, this explanation seems incomplete: for example, cribellate silk may perform better than viscid silk in some contexts. Here, we consider the hypothesis that the diversification of Araneoidea was facilitated by changes in microhabitat occupation behavior due to the cheaper viscid orb web. In the present work we investigate the idea that the reduction in site tenacity caused by the emergence of the viscid orb web has led to an increase in the exploration of different resources and to a greater diversification of the Arancoidea through the evolutionary time. To test this idea, we evaluated the response of one cribellate orb web spider (Zosis geniculata Olivier 1789, Uloboridae) and one ecribellate orb web spider (Metazygia rogenhoferi Keyserling 1878, Arancidae) to abrupt prey absence. The changes in site tenacity and the day-to-day investment in web silk were evaluated. Spiders with three-dimensional webs tend to exhibit greater site tenacity than spiders making orb webs. Zosis geniculata and M. rogenhoferi show similar site tenacity when prey is ample. When prey is unavailable, the tenacity of the cribellate species increases while the tenacity of the ecribellate remains unchanged, and the silk investment of both species decreases. However, this decrease in silk investment is more extensive in Z. geniculata. These results coincide with the idea that a less costly ecribellate orb web leads to a lower tenacity and suggest that more frequent microhabitat abandonment in a context of insect radiation (Neiptera) leads to more diverse and opportunistic exploration of microhabitats that, in the long term, may be one explanation for the greater Araneoidea diversification.

Quantitative Detection of Enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis Subtypes Isolated from Children with and without Diarrhea

A rapid real-time PCR ( RT-PCR) approach was developed to detect the bft gene subtypes in Bacteroides fragilis isolated from fecal samples. DNA obtained from diarrhea (110) and nondiarrhea (150) samples was evaluated. Subtype 1 was observed in 9 (8.2%) diarrhea and 7 (4.7%) nondiarrhea samples. Subtype 2 was not detected in any DNA samples, and subtype 3 was observed in only 1 diarrhea sample. The presence of the bft-1 gene did not show any statistically significant differences between the groups of children. This technique could be used to evaluate a possible correlation between disease and the presence of B. fragilis enterotoxin.

Demographic characteristics and prevalence of serologic markers among blood donors who use confidential unit exclusion (CUE) in Sao Paulo, Brazil: implications for modification of CUE polices in Brazil

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated demographic profiles and prevalence of serologic markers among donors who used confidential unit exclusion (CUE) to assess the effectiveness of CUE and guide public policies regarding the use of CUE for enhancing safety versus jeopardizing the blood supply by dropping CUE. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of whole blood donations at a large public blood center in Sao Paulo from July 2007 through June 2009, compared demographic data, and confirmed serologic results among donors who used and who have never used CUE (CUE never). RESULTS: There were 265,550 whole blood units collected from 181,418 donors from July 2007 through June 2009. A total of 9658 (3.6%) units were discarded, 2973 (1.1%) because CUE was used at the current donation (CUE now) and 6685 (2.5%) because CUE was used in the past (CUE past). The CUE rate was highest among donors with less than 8 years of education (odds ratio [OR], 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.51-3.08). CUE now donations were associated with higher positive infectious disease marker rates than CUE never donations (OR, 1.41; CI, 1.13-1.77), whereas CUE past donations were not (OR, 1.04; CI, 0.75-1.45). CONCLUSION: The CUE process results in a high rate of unit discard. CUE use on an individual donation appears predictive of a high-risk marker-positive donation and, thus, appears to contribute modestly to blood safety. The policy of discarding units from donors who have previously CUE-positive donations does not improve safety and should be discontinued.

Representation type of Jordan algebras

The problem of classification of Jordan bit-nodules over (non-semisimple) finite dimensional Jordan algebras with respect to their representation type is considered. The notions of diagram of a Jordan algebra and of Jordan tensor algebra of a bimodule are introduced and a mapping Qui is constructed which associates to the diagram of a Jordan algebra J the quiver of its universal associative enveloping algebra S(J). The main results are concerned with Jordan algebras of semi-matrix type, that is, algebras whose semi-simple component is a direct sum of Jordan matrix algebras. In this case, criterion of finiteness and tameness for one-sided representations are obtained, in terms of diagram and mapping Qui, for Jordan tensor algebras and for algebras with radical square equals to 0. (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spectroscopic investigation of the interactions between emeraldine base polyaniline and Eu(III) ions

The interactions of emeraldine base form of polyaniline (EB-PANI) and Eu(III) ions in 1-methyl-2-pyrrolidinone (NMP) solution and in films have been investigated by UV-vis-NIR, resonance Raman. luminescence and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopies. These spectroscopic techniques allowed to characterize quinone and semiquinone segments in the polymeric chains. and the oxidation state of europium ions in Eu-PANI samples. For high values of Eu(III)/N molar ratio (24/1) the presence of a weak polaronic absorption band at 980 nm in UV-vis-NIR spectrum and the observation of bands at 1330 and 1378 (nu(center dot)(C-N+)) cm(-1) due to emeraldine salt in the Raman spectrum at 1064 nm indicate a low doping degree. Oxidation of EB-PANI to pernigraniline base (PB-PANI) occurs in diluted solutions. The experimental data showed that the solvent plays an important role on the nature of formed species. The narrow EPR signal at g = 2.006 (line width 8G) confirms the presence of PANI radical cations in Eu-PANI film. The absence of broad signal characteristic of Eu(II) in EPR spectrum suggested that europium ions are primarily at Eu(III) oxidation state. The luminescence spectra of Eu-PANI film presented emission bands at 405 and 418 nm assigned to PANI moieties and bands at 594,615 and 701 nm assigned to (5)D(0) -> (7)F(J) (J = 1, 2 and 4, respectively) transitions of Eu(III). EPR and photoluminescence data confirm that europium ions are mainly in Eu(III) oxidation state in Eu(III)/PANI films. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Samband mellan mammans BMI relaterat till amningsduration och mammans skattning av barnets hälsa : En enkätstudie

I ett internationellt perspektiv har Sverige hög amningsfrekvens, men under 2000-talet har amningsfrekvensen sjunkit och stora regionala skillnader ses. Kvinnorna rekommenderas att helamma sex månader. Mödravårdcentralen (MVC) informerar om bröstmjölkens hälsoeffekter som till exempel att bröstmjölken skyddar barn mot allergier. Forskning visar att överviktiga och feta kvinnor har kortare amningsduration, men få studier behandlar svenska förhållanden. Syfte: Syfte med fördjupningsarbetet är att studera samband mellan mammans BMI relaterat till amningsduration och mammans skattning av barnets hälsa de tre första levnadsåren. Metod: Studien är en kvantitativ retrospektiv tvärsnittstudie. Data insamlades via enkäter, 418 deltagare inkluderades. Data har analyserats med Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). För deskriptiv och jämförande analys har parametriska och icke-parametriska analyser genomförts. Resultat: De kvinnor som inte ammade skattade sitt barns hälsa sämre vid tre års ålder i jämförelse med kvinnor som ammat någon period. Vid tre års ålder skattade kvinnor med övervikt och fetma sitt barns hälsa sämre. Slutsats: Det är viktigt att kunna identifiera kvinnor som är behov av stöd för att initiera amning och kunna bidra till anpassat stöd till dem. AbstractSweden reports high duration of breastfeeding compared to international findings. During the last century, the frequency of breastfeeding duration has decreased in Sweden, with large regional differences. Recommendation for exclusive breastfeeding is six months. Midwives provide information about healthy benefits of breast milk, such as breast milk protecting baby´s against allergies. Research has presented associations between obesity and short duration of breastfeeding. However, there is a lack of knowledge regarding women in a Swedish context. Aim: To investigate the relation between mothers BMI, duration of breastfeeding and maternal valuation of the baby´s health during the first three year of life. Method: The study is a quantitative retrospective cross-sectional study. Data was collected through questionnaires, 418 participants were included. Data was analyzed using the SPSS. For descriptive and comparative analysis parametric and nonparamateric statistics have been used.Results: Women who did not breastfed perceived their baby´s health worse at three years compared with women who did breastfeed. Women with overweight and obesity also perceived the health of their three year old worse than the other maternal group. Conclusions: It´s important to identify women who need support to initiate breastfeeding and give them customized support.