Model simulation output data (CCSM3) related to uplift of Africa and Himalaya/Tibet Plateau and the influence on tropical African vegetation

Hominid evolution in the late Miocene has long been hypothesized to be linked to the retreat of the tropical rainforest in Africa. One cause for the climatic and vegetation change often considered was uplift of Africa, but also uplift of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau was suggested to have impacted rainfall distribution over Africa. Recent proxy data suggest that in East Africa open grassland habitats were available to the common ancestors of hominins and apes long before their divergence and do not find evidence for a closed rainforest in the late Miocene. We used the coupled global general circulation model CCSM3 including an interactively coupled dynamic vegetation module to investigate the impact of topography on African hydro-climate and vegetation. We performed sensitivity experiments altering elevations of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau as well as of East and Southern Africa. The simulations confirm the dominant impact of African topography for climate and vegetation development of the African tropics. Only a weak influence of prescribed Asian uplift on African climate could be detected. The model simulations show that rainforest coverage of Central Africa is strongly determined by the presence of elevated African topography. In East Africa, despite wetter conditions with lowered African topography, the conditions were not favorable enough to maintain a closed rainforest. A discussion of the results with respect to other model studies indicates a minor importance of vegetation-atmosphere or ocean-atmosphere feedbacks and a large dependence of the simulated vegetation response on the land surface/vegetation model.

Robotic Outcome Assessment in a Non-Human Primate Model of Middle Cerebral Artery Stroke

Stroke is a prevalent disorder with immense socioeconomic impact. A variety of chronic neurological deficits result from stroke. In particular, sensorimotor deficits are a significant barrier to achieving post-stroke independence. Unfortunately, the majority of pre-clinical studies that show improved outcomes in animal stroke models have failed in clinical trials. Pre-clinical studies using non-human primate (NHP) stroke models prior to initiating human trials are a potential step to improving translation from animal studies to clinical trials. Robotic assessment tools represent a quantitative, reliable, and reproducible means to assess reaching behaviour following stroke in both humans and NHPs. We investigated the use of robotic technology to assess sensorimotor impairments in NHPs following middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO). Two cynomolgus macaques underwent transient MCAO for 90 minutes. Approximately 1.5 years following the procedure these NHPs and two non-stroke control monkeys were trained in a reaching task with both arms in the KINARM exoskeleton. This robot permits elbow and shoulder movements in the horizontal plane. The task required NHPs to make reaching movements from a centrally positioned start target to 1 of 8 peripheral targets uniformly distributed around the first target. We analyzed four movement parameters: reaction time, movement time (MT), initial direction error (IDE), and number of speed maxima to characterize sensorimotor deficiencies. We hypothesized reduced performance in these attributes during a neurobehavioural task with the paretic limb of NHPs following MCAO compared to controls. Reaching movements in the non-affected limbs of control and experimental NHPs showed bell-shaped velocity profiles. In contrast, the reaching movements with the affected limbs were highly variable. We found distinctive patterns in MT, IDE, and number of speed peaks between control and experimental monkeys and between limbs of NHPs with MCAO. NHPs with MCAO demonstrated more speed peaks, longer MTs, and greater IDE in their paretic limb compared to controls. These initial results qualitatively match human stroke subjects’ performance, suggesting that robotic neurobehavioural assessment in NHPs with stroke is feasible and could have translational relevance in subsequent human studies. Further studies will be necessary to replicate and expand on these preliminary findings.

An Interactive Model to Teach Motor Skills

There has been a tremendous increase in our knowledge of hum motor performance over the last few decades. Our theoretical understanding of how an individual learns to move is sophisticated and complex. It is difficult however to relate much of this information in practical terms to physical educators, coaches, and therapists concerned with the learning of motor skills (Shumway-Cook & Woolcott, 1995). Much of our knowledge stems from lab testing which often appears to bear little relation to real-life situations. This lack of ecological validity has slowed the flow of information from the theorists and researchers to the practitioners. This paper is concerned with taking some small aspects of motor learning theory, unifying them, and presenting them in a usable fashion. The intention is not to present a recipe for teaching motor skills, but to present a framework from which solutions can be found. If motor performance research has taught us anything, it is that every individual and situation presents unique challenges. By increasing our ability to conceptualize the learning situation we should be able to develop more flexible and adaptive responses to the challege of teaching motor skills. The model presented here allows a teacher, coach, or therapist to use readily available observations and known characteristics about a motor task and to conceptualize them in a manner which allows them to make appropriate teaching/learning decisions.

Model Development Guidelines for UML-RT: Conventions, Patterns and Antipatterns

Software development guidelines are a set of rules which can help improve the quality of software. These rules are defined on the basis of experience gained by the software development community over time. This paper discusses a set of design guidelines for model-based development of complex real-time embedded software systems. To be precise, we propose nine design conventions, three design patterns and thirteen antipatterns for developing UML-RT models. These guidelines have been identified based on our analysis of around 100 UML-RT models from industry and academia. Most of the guidelines are explained with the help of examples, and standard templates from the current state of the art are used for documenting the design rules.

A Simple Model of Access and Capacity for Post-Secondary Schooling in Canada (Working Paper 40)

This paper develops a simple model of the post-secondary education system in Canada that provides a useful basis for thinking about issues of capacity and access. It uses a supply-demand framework, where demand comes on the part of individuals wanting places in the system, and supply is determined not only by various directives and agreements between educational ministries and institutions (and other factors), but also the money available to universities and colleges through tuition fees. The supply and demand curves are then put together with a stylised tuition-setting rule to describe the “market” of post-secondary schooling. This market determines the number of students in the system, and their characteristics, especially as they relate to “ability” and family background, the latter being especially relevant to access issues. The manner in which various changes in the system – including tuition fees, student financial aid, government support for institutions, and the returns to schooling – are then discussed in terms of how they affect the number of students and their characteristics, or capacity and access.

A Recursive Income Model for Canadians : The Direct and Indirect Effects of Family Background (Working Paper 28)

This paper presents the results of a multi-equation income model which has been estimated for Canadian men and women which incorporates the effects of a number of important family background variables, including mother’s and father’s education, parents’ immigration status, their age at immigration, place of birth, language development, and learning background. Not only education, but also the individual’s tested literacy and numeracy levels are treated as intermediate outcomes which are affected by background and which, in turn, affect income. Many of the background variables are found to have important indirect effects on income which would be missed by more conventional approaches. We also find some interesting gender aspects with respect to the influences of parents’ educations on their children’s outcomes. Various policy implications of the findings are discussed.

An impulsive differential equation model for Marek's disease

Many dynamical processes are subject to abrupt changes in state. Often these perturbations can be periodic and of short duration relative to the evolving process. These types of phenomena are described well by what are referred to as impulsive differential equations, systems of differential equations coupled with discrete mappings in state space. In this thesis we employ impulsive differential equations to model disease transmission within an industrial livestock barn. In particular we focus on the poultry industry and a viral disease of poultry called Marek's disease. This system lends itself well to impulsive differential equations. Entire cohorts of poultry are introduced and removed from a barn concurrently. Additionally, Marek's disease is transmitted indirectly and the viral particles can survive outside the host for weeks. Therefore, depopulating, cleaning, and restocking of the barn are integral factors in modelling disease transmission and can be completely captured by the impulsive component of the model. Our model allows us to investigate how modern broiler farm practices can make disease elimination difficult or impossible to achieve. It also enables us to investigate factors that may contribute to virulence evolution. Our model suggests that by decrease the cohort duration or by decreasing the flock density, Marek's disease can be eliminated from a barn with no increase in cleaning effort. Unfortunately our model also suggests that these practices will lead to disease evolution towards greater virulence. Additionally, our model suggests that if intensive cleaning between cohorts does not rid the barn of disease, it may drive evolution and cause the disease to become more virulent.

Development of An Enhanced Oil Sands Fluid Tailings Generation Model

Bitumen extraction from surface-mined oil sands results in the production of large volumes of Fluid Fine Tailings (FFT). Through Directive 085, the Province of Alberta has signaled that oil sands operators must improve and accelerate the methods by which they deal with FFT production, storage and treatment. This thesis aims to develop an enhanced method to forecast FFT production based on specific ore characteristics. A mass relationship and mathematical model to modify the Forecasting Tailings Model (FTM) by using fines and clay boundaries, as the two main indicators in FFT accumulation, has been developed. The modified FTM has been applied on representative block model data from an operating oil sands mining venture. An attempt has been made to identify order-of-magnitude associated tailings treatment costs, and to improve financial performance by not processing materials that have ultimate ore processing and tailings storage and treatment costs in excess of the value of bitumen they produce. The results on the real case study show that there is a 53% reduction in total tailings accumulations over the mine life by selectively processing only lower tailings generating materials through eliminating 15% of total mined ore materials with higher potential of fluid fines inventory. This significant result will assess the impact of Directive 082 on mining project economic and environmental performance towards the sustainable development of mining projects.

Supporting the Model-Driven Development of Real-time Embedded Systems with Run-Time Monitoring and Animation via Highly Customizable Code Generation

This paper presents a vision that allows the combined use of model-driven engineering, run-time monitoring, and animation for the development and analysis of components in real-time embedded systems. Key building block in the tool environment supporting this vision is a highly-customizable code generation process. Customization is performed via a configuration specification which describes the ways in which input is provided to the component, the ways in which run-time execution information can be observed, and how these observations drive animation tools. The environment is envisioned to be suitable for different activities ranging from quality assurance to supporting certification, teaching, and outreach and will be built exclusively with open source tools to increase impact. A preliminary prototype implementation is described.

Pure higher-order effects in the portfolio choice model

This paper examines the effects of higher-order risk attitudes and statistical moments on the optimal allocation of risky assets within the standard portfolio choice model. We derive the expressions for the optimal proportion of wealth invested in the risky asset to show they are functions of portfolio returns third- and fourth-order moments as well as on the investor’s risk preferences of prudence and temperance. We illustrate the relative importance that the introduction of those higher-order effects have in the decision of expected utility maximizers using data for the US.