Chaos Theory and Socio-Economic Renewal in Hungary

We utilised methods of chaos theory that were originally used in a 1990’s study to analyse the behaviour of various Hungarian socio-economic macro indicators, both historically and their expected behaviour in the future. In this study, we present the method adapted to PC and the behaviour of the selected macro indicators. We characterize the pathways our society and economy has experienced and where they are heading to into the future by the means of these indicators. Comparing the present results of analysis with the results twenty years ago (when today’s present was the future) we came to the conclusion that most of the indicators became less chaotic, thus the socio-economic courses were getting more stable over the past two decades. We conclude that the opportunity to change them is slowly diminishing, it will be more and more difficult to renew the Hungarian socio-economic indicators, and to turn the processes to more desirable courses. Recommendations for change interventions are then provided.

Hogyan kezeljük a „közösségi ügyfeleket”? – Social CRM marketing és IT megközelítésben (How to manage social customer? Social CRM in marketing and IT context.)

Van egy szó, ami egyre fontosabb lesz a társadalom és a vállalatok számára is, ez a szó a közösség. A közösséghez tevékenységek tartoznak, és ezen a ponton kapcsolódik be a vállalat. A vállalkozások az elmúlt években a közösségi igényeket a CRM-(Customer Relationship Management) megoldásokkal szolgálták ki. Informatikailag a közösségi hálózatok, már nemcsak vállalkozási folyamatot, hanem ehhez kapcsoltan az emberek társadalmi igényét is megpróbálják lefedni az elektronika lehetőségeivel. Egyre inkább a közösségi vállalkozások korát éljük, melyben a folyamathoz tartozó közösségek megosztják, egymás rendelkezésére bocsátják az információkat. A korábbi klasszikus CRM-rendszerek csak begyűjtötték az információkat, ezzel ellenben a közösségi CRM-rendszerek kétirányú kommunikációt folytatnak, párbeszédet kezdeményeznek az ügyfelekkel, buzdítják őket, hogy mondják el a véleményüket. Vajon ez az új stratégia,egy teljesen új világot hoz el a vállalatok számára, vagy csak a CRM fejlődésének egy újabb fokát jelenti? A szerzők erre a kérdésre keresik a választ gyakorlati esetek és szakirodalmi publikációk feldolgozásával. ______ There is a word that begins to be more and more important for the society and the companies, and this word is community. We can talk about social networks, people seek the social demand they already had as a part of their lives for a long time, and this means that it appears in the electronic society as an essential need too. The community is not enough, activities are also needed and this is the point where the companies link in, who promote their goods and facilities to the outside world and with this they use the next stage of customer relationship management, the fulfilment of social needs. We live in the age of social shopping, communities are everywhere and everyone shares information, and up to the present classic CR M systems ran from static databases. On the contrary social CR M systems perform a two-way communication, start a conversation with customers and encourage them to tell their opinions, which always changes on social media, so they build a dynamic database and communicate with customers through response-reactions. Does this new strategy bring a whole new world to companies or is it only another step in the development and another channel of CRM?

Relations between China and Latin America: Inter-regionalism beyond the Triad

Inter-regionalism refers to regular forms of cooperation between regions or actors from different regions and is a result of the parallel phenomena of globalization and regionalism. Inter-regional links are rapidly developing all around the world and form a new level of global governance. Though originally inter-regionalism typically connected the actors of the so-called Triad, today emerging economies and developing regions are more active and visible participants of inter-regional cooperation. The article examines the perspectives and limitations of inter-regional relations between China and Latin America as a new dimension of deepening Sino–Latin American relations.

Interpretation of time and future in strategy research

Time is in constant motion: the present, the future and the past, although they are not concepts having a fixed meaning, they are present in everyday life both at the conscious and the unconscious levels. The author’s intention in this paper is to grasp the relationship of companies to time and to the future in the mature and nascent states of their life cycles. As discussed in this paper, this relationship may appear with little reflection in the form of assumptions in the eyes of strategy researchers and practitioners. At first the interrelatedness of theory and practice is discussed in order to focus on the role of scholars and practitioners in creating theory and putting it to practice or vice versa. This general introduction will lay the ground for the study of interpretations of the future and time from the perspective of strategy research and strategy practice, respectively.

Investigating the effect of geographical distances and cultural proximity on the Hungarian wine trade

Wine is a very special product from an economic, cultural, and sociological point of view. Wine culture and wine trade play an important role in Hungary. The effect of cultural and geographical proximity on international trade has already been proven in the international trade literature. The size of bilateral trade flows between any two countries can be approximated by the gravity theory of trade. The gravity model provides empirical evidence of the relationship between the size of the economies, the distances between them, and their trade. This paper seeks to analyse the effect of cultural and geographical proximity on Hungary’s bilateral wine trade between 2000 and 2012, employing the gravity equation. The analysis is based on data from the World Bank WITS, WDI, as well as CEPII, and WTO databases. I apply OLS, Random Effects, Poisson, Pseudo-Poisson-Maximum-Likelihood and Heckman two stage estimators to calculate the gravity regression. The results show that in the case of Hungary, cultural similarity and trade liberalisation have a positive impact, while geographical distance, landlockedness, and contiguity have a negative impact on Hungarian wine exports.

Tax incentives applied against externalities: International examples of fat tax and carbon tax

This study assesses the Pigou taxes introduced as a response to negative externalities in practice. The authors analyze the international practice and effectiveness of taxation on food products harmful to health and on carbon emissions harmful to the environment and, in relation to these two types of taxes, the focus is on the opportunities and the factors reducing efficiency.

"Rentier States" or the Relationship between Regime Stability and Exercising Power in Post-Soviet Central Asia

The paper intends to give an insight into the relations of the economic and political systems of the Central Asian republics using the theoretical framework of the "rentier economy" and "rentier state" approach. The main findings of the paper are that two (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) of the five states examined are commodity export dependent “full-scale” rentier states. The two political systems are of a stable neo-patrimonial regime character, while the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, poor in natural resources but dependent on external rents, may be described as "semi-rentier" states or "rentier economies". They are politically more instable, but have an altogether authoritarian, oligarchical “clan-based” character. Uzbekistan with its closed economy, showing tendencies of economic autarchy, is also a potentially politically unstable clan-based regime. Thus, in the Central Asian context, the rentier state or rentier economy character affects the political stability of the actual regimes rather than having a direct impact on whether power is exercised in an autocratic or democratic way.

Land Policy and Farm Structure: Challenges and Opportunities for Agriculture in the Western Balkan

Although Western Balkan countries are quite different, they can all be characterised by their one shared goal, to achieve the quickest possible accession to the European Union. Even though agriculture plays an important key role within all Western Balkan states, it’s share is the highest in Albania and only Serbia has a trade surplus. Land is a key production factor but all the analysed countries can be characterized by fragmented land structure and low average farm sizes. Mostly based on land ownership issues, a land reform index can be calculated. The major contribution of this paper to the literature is the reevaluated land reform index for the Western Balkans.

Savages into citizens: Families, political purge, and reconciliation in Cordoba, Argentina, 1820--1862

This dissertation explores the political exclusion and reintegration of families and individuals in Córdoba, Argentina during the early nineteenth-century. Part one is an examination of how Federals in Córdoba managed the process of political identification and purge. Federals set up ad hoc institutions that were responsible for targeting political subversives within provincial communities. From 1831 to 1852, Federals managed to target, or “classify,” over 400 individuals and families in various towns and villages as “savage Unitarians,” a political label that meant the certain loss of rights, property, exile, and worse. Federals also sought active participation among “citizens” from all levels of society. Thus, I argue that the process of correctly identifying a “savage Unitarian” in Córdoba was constantly subject to modification at the local level. I also reconstruct the stories of accused families as they struggled to survive the political purges. Many of the families were large landowners and wealthy merchants, confirming that early republican Argentine political struggles were often intra-elite affairs. However, the “classified” individuals and families also represented a variety of socio-economic, ethnic, and racial groups. ^ The second part of this study focuses on families who petitioned Federal authorities for the restitution of rights and property. They proclaimed their loyalty to the “Federal cause,” and often, they had friends and family who could vouch for their claims. These petitions forced Federal authorities to doubt the precision of political identification and re-think how the ideology of Federalism was defined. Authorities granted most requests for repatriation, thereby creating a process of reintegration that included amnesty and restitution. Yet, this system failed to repair the psychological, emotional, materials, and political effects of political purge. Conflicts between society and state led to numerous misunderstandings about what restitution, justice, and reconciliation meant. The new regime's leaders more often denied restitution claims to formerly accused families and individuals, demonstrating that the journey from “savage” to citizen left an indelible imprint on family life in mid-nineteenth century Argentina. ^

Boundary maintenance in Qatar: Interpretation of domination, segregation and subordination

This study explores the interaction of expatriates in Qatar and their perception of their subordination. The study design included participant observation in an all female University and University housing as well as interviews with Qatari government agencies and ministries, expatriate embassies and expatriates. Semi-structured interviews were conducted across seven expatriate groups: domestic workers, unskilled laborers, semiskilled, professionals, housewives, second-generation expatriates with host country other than Qatar, second-generation expatriates with host country Qatar, and Gulf Cooperation Council citizens. Forty-two subjects completed the interview schedule while 87 interviews were incomplete. ^ Physical control of expatriates occurs through the Gulf practice of sponsorship (The Kafeel System), and local cultural and Islamic related controls intertwined with the Arab Code of honor. Interviews and observations revealed rankings of Arabs and foreigners which emphasize Qatari superiority such as tribal identity, moral ranking of female groups by dress, legal protection and power, sexual consideration and desexualization and salaries and job opportunities based on nationality and ethnicity. Individuals who desire to transcend boundaries into the Qatari realm through citizenship or marriage view Qataris as possessing the “image of the unlimited good” and have acquired Qatari social and cultural capital. Members from all expatriate groups engaged in various forms of resistance to labor and gender domination which ranged from forms of “exit,” expressing a hidden transcript in the privacy of their own group, disguised resistance in public, and occasionally, direct confrontation with the Qatari. Although the legal arena created the appearance that worker's needs were being addressed, laborers engaged in forms of “exit” to escape their oppression. Omani students in the hostel disguised their resistance by spreading gossip, nick-naming homosexual Qatari students at the University, acting out a skit depicting their exclusion from Qatari privilege, spreading rumors of impending freedom, and singing songs of despair in the courtyard. Other sites of resistance were expatriate embassies, the road, the newspaper and technology. This study emphasizes that blaming oppression of the expatriate worker on globalization is a simplistic view of oppression in the Gulf, and ignores complex issues within Qatari society and other Gulf States. Sponsorship, servitude, and gender segregation intersect in Qatar to create a system of segregation and domination of expatriates. ^

"And a child shall lead them?": Slavery, childhood, and African cultural identity in Jamaica, 1750--1838

Based primarily on archival evidence collected in Jamaica, this dissertation examined the nature of childhood in the plantation complex between 1750 and 1838, how colonial society and the slave community defined childhood, and how that definition changed over time. It proves how childhood and slavery influenced and changed each other during these years, with the abolitionist movement standing as the main catalyst for change. Although this project chronologically examined the changing nature of slave childhood in Jamaica through four shifts of Jamaican history, each chapter topically focused on slave childhood through the lenses of labor, family, resistance, race, status, culture, education, and freedom. ^ The research showed that although slavery forced slave children into an early adulthood, childhood was a contested process that changed with each generation of children. As the abolitionist movement motivated changes in planter opinion on the value of children to the plantation economy, planters placed increased responsibility on slave children to lead them towards economic stability and profitability. Meanwhile, slave children struggled to survive slavery by reinventing and modifying their ideas of family and kinship and reacting to their situation through various acts of resistance. Although slave parents gained many opportunities to raise their children on their own terms, they struggled to maintain control over that process as planters attempted to change the nature of African cultural identity in Jamaica by impressing Christian and English values on slave children. Under apprenticeship, childhood returned to its previous status as a liability in the eyes of the Jamaican planters. Yet, Jamaican children faced the prospect of an unwritten childhood, one that was free from planter control and gave Jamaican laborers hope for the future. In the end, this dissertation told the story of an overlooked childhood, one that was often defined by Jamaican planters, but frequently contested by the slaves themselves. ^

Development and testing of the Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI): A composite indicator to measure social vulnerability in the Jamaican elderly population

Over the last two decades social vulnerability has emerged as a major area of study, with increasing attention to the study of vulnerable populations. Generally, the elderly are among the most vulnerable members of any society, and widespread population aging has led to greater focus on elderly vulnerability. However, the absence of a valid and practical measure constrains the ability of policy-makers to address this issue in a comprehensive way. This study developed a composite indicator, The Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI), and used it to undertake a comparative analysis of the availability of support for elderly Jamaicans based on their access to human, material and social resources. The results of the ESVI indicated that while the elderly are more vulnerable overall, certain segments of the population appear to be at greater risk. Females had consistently lower scores than males, and the oldest-old had the highest scores of all groups of older persons. Vulnerability scores also varied according to place of residence, with more rural parishes having higher scores than their urban counterparts. These findings support the political economy framework which locates disadvantage in old age within political and ideological structures. The findings also point to the pervasiveness and persistence of gender inequality as argued by feminist theories of aging. Based on the results of the study it is clear that there is a need for policies that target specific population segments, in addition to universal policies that could make the experience of old age less challenging for the majority of older persons. Overall, the ESVI has displayed usefulness as a tool for theoretical analysis and demonstrated its potential as a policy instrument to assist decision-makers in determining where to target their efforts as they seek to address the issue of social vulnerability in old age. Data for this study came from the 2001 population and housing census of Jamaica, with multiple imputation for missing data. The index was derived from the linear aggregation of three equally weighted domains, comprised of eleven unweighted indicators which were normalized using z-scores. Indicators were selected based on theoretical relevance and data availability.

Para subsistir dignamente: Alberto Yarini and the search for Cubanidad, 1882-1910

This study looks at the broader transformations in Cuban history through the case study of a single, yet symbolic, man, and proposes a new paradigm for understanding the dynamics of Cuban society and culture. It also examines the implications for Cuba’s aspiring national identity at the turn of the twentieth century, by detailing the interplay between fact and fiction in the story of Alberto Yarini: elite born; well-educated; politically and socially well-connected; powerful; and celebrated Cuban racketeer and chulo (pimp). Yarini was described as vibrant and triumphant at a time when other nation-building forces in Cuba were weak and ambivalent. A century after his dramatic death, Yarini became the quintessential public man in Cuban lore who symbolized a cubanidad (Cuban national identity) not defined in terms of the ideological hegemony of class, race, or gender, and who through his actions dispelled the ambivalence that plagued Cuban nationalism. Using archival documents, contemporary newspaper accounts, court records, memoirs, and published works, this study analyzes the confluence of national events and individual action in the formation of Cuban national identity. It contends that for Cuba, the failure of nation-building experiments resulted in an ambivalent national identity based on failed philosophical and political ideals of equality and prosperity. These ideals played out within the context of the realities of racial discrimination, political dissonance, and class and gender barriers. Instead of a cohesive sense of national character, for Cubans the result was a competing set of identities including a populist version that was defined through identification with antitypes and pseudo-heroes such as Alberto Yarini y Ponce de León (1882-1910), a rising politician and celebrated chulo of the early republic. The telling and retelling of his story has given rise to what has been termed the island nation’s first national myth – one that continues to evolve and grow in the twenty-first century. For many Cubans, the Yarini antitype provided an idealized national identity which in many ways was—and many argue continues to be— the expression of an elusive and ambivalent cubanidad.

Armed Groups and Violence in Paraguay

Armed violence in Paraguay is not a recent phenomenon. During the second half of the XX Century, Paraguay saw the rise of a larger number of underground, revolutionary movements that sought the overthrow of the Alfredo Stroessner’s (1954-1989) government. From among those movements emerged the Partido Patria Libre (or, Free Fatherland, also known for its acronym PPL), made up of a two branches: one legal and the other one, operational. The latter was based on people’s power, as represented by “Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo” (or, the Paraguayan People’s Army, with acronym EPP). After EPP broke with PPL in March 2008, this Marxist-oriented revolutionary project, which was apparently oriented to put an end to the social, political and economic inequalities in Paraguay, began to carry out markedly criminal activities, which included bank robberies, kidnappings, assassinations, terrorist attacks and armed confrontations. Its strategies and modus operandi utilized by the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC). Paraguay features a farm sector in a state of crisis, in which cattle-ranchers, peasants and agro-exporting companies live in a constant strife. The Paraguayan Departments that are the most affected by this situation are Concepciόn, San Pedro, Canindeyú y Caazapá, which also suffer from a weak government presence. This deficiency has made these departments ripe for drug-trafficking activity by Brazilian groups such as Primer Comando Capital (i.e., First Capital command), also PCC and Comando Vermelho, (i.e., The Red Command). That is why many peasants, now recruited by EPP, have joined the drug-trafficking business and that, not only as marihuana growers but as “campanas” (i.e., early warning sentinels) for the organization. This helps shape their attitudes for their future involvement in all areas of drug-trafficking. Paraguayan society is the result of social inequity and inequality, such as those resulting from a lack of opportunity. Although Paraguay has successfully recovered from the last world economic crisis, economic growth, by itself, does not ensure an improvement in the quality of life. As long as such economic and social gaps persist and the government fails to enact the policies that would result in a more just society and toward EPP neutralization or containment, the latter is bound to grow stronger. In this context, the situation in Paraguay calls for more research into the EPP phenomenon. It would also seem necessary for Paraguay to promote an open national debate that includes all sectors of society in order to raise consciousness and to induce society to take actual steps to eliminate the EPP, as well as any other group that might arise in the immediate future. EPP has strong connections with the Frente Patriόtico Manuel Rodríguez in Chile and other armed groups and peasant movements in other countries of this region. Although most governments in the region are aware that the armed struggle is not a solution to current problems, it might be worth it to hold a regional debate about armed or insurgent groups in Latin American to seek common strategies and cooperation on dealing with them since the expansion of these armed groups is a problem for all.

Trends for Meetings and Expositions Industry

During the last decade, the meetings and expositions industry has flourished, even as it has struggled to cope with difficult challenges. This is a taste of things to me. In the years ahead, the global population will continue to grow and change, science and technology will tighten their hold on business and society and the world will knit itself ever more tightly into a single market. As a result, both opportunities and trials will abound.