Slope estimation in a parametric measurement error model: A simulation study

In regression analysis, covariate measurement error occurs in many applications. The error-prone covariates are often referred to as latent variables. In this proposed study, we extended the study of Chan et al. (2008) on recovering latent slope in a simple regression model to that in a multiple regression model. We presented an approach that applied the Monte Carlo method in the Bayesian framework to the parametric regression model with the measurement error in an explanatory variable. The proposed estimator applied the conditional expectation of latent slope given the observed outcome and surrogate variables in the multiple regression models. A simulation study was presented showing that the method produces estimator that is efficient in the multiple regression model, especially when the measurement error variance of surrogate variable is large.^

Zircons, isotope ratios and element analyses from tonalite and oxide gabbro of the mid-ocean ridge from ODP Hole 176-735B

A limiting factor in the accuracy and precision of U/Pb zircon dates is accurate correction for initial disequilibrium in the 238U and 235U decay chains. The longest-lived-and therefore most abundant-intermediate daughter product in the 235U isotopic decay chain is 231Pa (T1/2 = 32.71 ka), and the partitioning behavior of Pa in zircon is not well constrained. Here we report high-precision thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) U-Pb zircon data from two samples from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 735B, which show evidence for incorporation of excess 231Pa during zircon crystallization. The most precise analyses from the two samples have consistent Th-corrected 206Pb/238U dates with weighted means of 11.9325 ± 0.0039 Ma (n = 9) and 11.920 ± 0.011 Ma (n = 4), but distinctly older 207Pb/235U dates that vary from 12.330 ± 0.048 Ma to 12.140 ± 0.044 Ma and 12.03 ± 0.24 to 12.40 ± 0.27 Ma, respectively. If the excess 207Pb is due to variable initial excess 231Pa, calculated initial (231Pa)/(235U) activity ratios for the two samples range from 5.6 ± 1.0 to 9.6 ± 1.1 and 3.5 ± 5.2 to 11.4 ± 5.8. The data from the more precisely dated sample yields estimated DPazircon/DUzircon from 2.2-3.8 and 5.6-9.6, assuming (231Pa)/(235U) of the melt equal to the global average of recently erupted mid-ocean ridge basaltic glasses or secular equilibrium, respectively. High precision ID-TIMS analyses from nine additional samples from Hole 735B and nearby Hole 1105A suggest similar partitioning. The lower range of DPazircon/DUzircon is consistent with ion microprobe measurements of 231Pa in zircons from Holocene and Pleistocene rhyolitic eruptions (Schmitt (2007; doi:10.2138/am.2007.2449) and Schmitt (2011; doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-040610-133330)). The data suggest that 231Pa is preferentially incorporated during zircon crystallization over a range of magmatic compositions, and excess initial 231Pa may be more common in zircons than acknowledged. The degree of initial disequilibrium in the 235U decay chain suggested by the data from this study, and other recent high precision datasets, leads to resolvable discordance in high precision dates of Cenozoic to Mesozoic zircons. Minor discordance in zircons of this age may therefore reflect initial excess 231Pa and does not require either inheritance or Pb loss.

Chronology for the EDML ice core from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, over the last 150 000 years

A chronology called EDML1 has been developed for the EPICA ice core from Dronning Maud Land (EDML). EDML1 is closely interlinked with EDC3, the new chronology for the EPICA ice core from Dome-C (EDC) through a stratigraphic match between EDML and EDC that consists of 322 volcanic match points over the last 128 ka. The EDC3 chronology comprises a glaciological model at EDC, which is constrained and later selectively tuned using primary dating information from EDC as well as from EDML, the latter being transferred using the tight stratigraphic link between the two cores. Finally, EDML1 was built by exporting EDC3 to EDML. For ages younger than 41 ka BP the new synchronized time scale EDML1/EDC3 is based on dated volcanic events and on a match to the Greenlandic ice core chronology GICC05 via 10Be and methane. The internal consistency between EDML1 and EDC3 is estimated to be typically ~6 years and always less than 450 years over the last 128 ka (always less than 130 years over the last 60 ka), which reflects an unprecedented synchrony of time scales. EDML1 ends at 150 ka BP (2417 m depth) because the match between EDML and EDC becomes ambiguous further down. This hints at a complex ice flow history for the deepest 350 m of the EDML ice core.

Mean dynamic topography and oceanographic parameters estimated from an inverse model and satellite geodesy, with link to model result in one single NetCDF file (392 MB), including the inverse data error covariance

Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography-the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99-110, 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jog.2011.07.0069; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie, 2012, http://nbn-resolving.de/nbn:de:hbz:5n-29199). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.

(Table 1) Stratigraphic position, abundance, shape, color, and refractive indices of glass shards of selected samples from DSDP Leg 60 Holes vitric muds

Precisely determined refractive indices of glass shards from 32 ash-rich, volcaniclastic sediments, mostly turbidites interbedded with nonvolcanic sediments in the Mariana Trough, range from 1.480 to 1.585 (corresponding to SiO2 ca. 75 to 49%), with most in the range 1.500 to 1.540 (SiO2 ca. 70-62%) and a second, smaller mode between ca. 1.560 and 1.585 (57 to 49% SiO2). Shards are almost exclusively colorless from 1.480 to ca. 1.530, light brown with minor colorless and green tones between 1.530 and 1.560, and dominantly brown at higher refractive indices. Tubular pumice shards are more common at higher silica percentages and non- to poorly-vesicular cuniform shards at low SiO2 values, but there is no clear correlation between shape and composition of shards. About half of the samples have bimodal shard populations with silica differences ranging up to 20 percent; unimodal layers have a range of up to about 7 percent SiO2. Of 21 samples in which one type of shard dominates, seven have the main mode in the rhyolitic composition (>69% SiO2), eight in the intermediate range (56 to 69% SiO2), and five in mafic composition (SiO2 <53%). These unusually abundant mafic shards occur mainly in site survey piston cores, SP-IA and 4E, and in Holes 454, 456, 458, and 459B. These are the sites closest to the present arc. Hole 453, containing by far the most vitric tuff turbidites, shows a gradual increase in silica content of ash layers upward to the hole from Cores 36 to 19 (about 4.6 to 3.0 Ma). A drastic decrease in ash-rich beds in the younger (Pleistocene) part of this hole was noted by the shipboard party (see site chapter, Site 453) and was interpreted by them as indicating increasing distance from the arc volcanoes as the trough opened. The increase in silica in ashes from the early to the late Pliocene at Site 453 could be interpreted in the same way and might indicate that the trough started to open in early Pliocene time.

Age determination and grwoth rates of stalagmites and stalactites from the Okshola cave, Fauske, northern Norway

The sensitivity of terrestrial environments to past changes in heat transport is expected to be manifested in Holocene climate proxy records on millennial to seasonal timescales. Stalagmite formation in the Okshola cave near Fauske (northern Norway) began at about 10.4 ka, soon after the valley was deglaciated. Past monitoring of the cave and surface has revealed stable modern conditions with uniform drip rates, relative humidity and temperature. Stable isotope records from two stalagmites provide time-series spanning from c. 10380 yr to AD 1997; a banded, multi-coloured stalagmite (Oks82) was formed between 10380 yr and 5050 yr, whereas a pristine, white stalagmite (FM3) covers the period from ~7500 yr to the present. The stable oxygen isotope (delta18Oc), stable carbon isotope (delta13Cc), and growth rate records are interpreted as showing i) a negative correlation between cave/surface temperature and delta18Oc, ii) a positive correlation between wetness and delta13Cc, and iii) a positive correlation between temperature and growth rate. Following this, the data from Okshola show that the Holocene was characterised by high-variability climate in the early part, low-variability climate in the middle part, and high-variability climate and shifts between two distinct modes in the late part. A total of nine Scandinavian stalagmite delta18Oc records of comparable dating precision are now available for parts or most of the Holocene. None of them show a clear Holocene thermal optimum, suggesting that they are influenced by annual mean temperature (cave temperature) rather than seasonal temperature. For the last 1000 years, delta18Oc values display a depletion-enrichment-depletion pattern commonly interpreted as reflecting the conventional view on climate development for the last millennium. Although the delta18Oc records show similar patterns and amplitudes of change, the main challenges for utilising high-latitude stalagmites as palaeoclimate archives are i) the accuracy of the age models, ii) the ambiguity of the proxy signals, and iii) calibration with monitoring data.

Chemistry of hot waters sampled from basaltic basement at DSDP Hole 83-504B

Seawater that has been altered by reaction with basaltic basement has been sampled from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 504B, located on 5.9-m.y.-old crust on the southern flank of the Costa Rica Rift. Fourteen water samples have been collected on Legs 69, 70, and 83, both before and after renewed drilling on the latter two legs, at temperatures from 69 to 133°C and pressures from 390 to 425 bars. The water sampled prior to renewed drilling on Leg 83 had occupied the hole for nearly 2 yr. since it was last flushed with surface seawater at the end of Leg 70. Despite some contamination by seawater during sampling, the composition of two of these waters has been determined by using nitrate as a tag for the contaminant. Both the 80 and 115°C waters have seawater chlorinity, but have lost considerable Mg, Na, K, sulfate, and 02, and have gained Ca, alkalinity, Si, NH3 and H2S. The loss of sulfate is due to anhydrite precipitation, as indicated by the d34S value of the remaining dissolved sulfate. The 87Sr/86Sr ratio has been lowered to 0.7086 for the 80°C water and 0.7078 for the 115°C water, whereas the Sr concentration is nearly unchanged. The changes in major element composition relative to seawater are also larger for the 115°C water, indicating that the basement formation water at this site probably varies in composition with depth. Based on their direction relative to seawater, the compositional changes for the 80 and 115°C waters do not complement the changes inferred for the altered rocks from Hole 504B, suggesting that the bulk composition of the altered rocks, like their mineralogy, is largely unrelated to the present thermal and alteration regime in the hole. The exact nature of the reacted seawaters cannot be determined yet, however. During its 2 yr. residence in the hole, the surface seawater remaining at the end of Leg 70 would have reacted with the wall rocks and exchanged with their interstitial formation waters by diffusion and possibly convection. How far these processes have proceeded is not yet certain, although calculations suggest that diffusion alone could have largely exchanged the surface seawater for interstitial water. The d18O of the samples is indistinguishable from seawater, however, and the d14C of the 80°C sample is similar to that of ocean bottom water. Although the interpretation of these species is ambiguous, that of tritium should not be. Tritium analyses, which are in progress, should clarify the nature of the reacted seawaters obtained from the hole.

El sendero del acierto y la avenida del error : cinco puntos de error de decisión, sus combinaciones y consecuencias

Fil: Fornero, Ricardo A.. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas

Turbulent flux and meteorological measurements during ARCTEX-2006 campaign

This dataset present result from the DFG- funded Arctic-Turbulence-Experiment (ARCTEX-2006) performed by the University of Bayreuth on the island of Svalbard, Norway, during the winter/spring transition 2006. From May 5 to May 19, 2006 turbulent flux and meteorological measurements were performed on the monitoring field near Ny-Ålesund, at 78°55'24'' N, 11°55'15'' E Kongsfjord, Svalbard (Spitsbergen), Norway. The ARCTEX-2006 campaign site was located about 200 m southeast of the settlement on flat snow covered tundra, 11 m to 14 m above sea level. The permanent sites used for this study consisted of the 10 m meteorological tower of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI), the international standardized radiation measurement site of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), the radiosonde launch site and the AWI tethered balloon launch sites. The temporary sites - set up by the University of Bayreuth - were a 6 m meteorological gradient tower, an eddy-flux measurement complex (EF), and a laser-scintillometer section (SLS). A quality assessment and data correction was applied to detect and eliminate specific measurement errors common at a high arctic landscape. In addition, the quality checked sensible heat flux measurements are compared with bulk aerodynamic formulas that are widely used in atmosphere-ocean/land-ice models for polar regions as described in Ebert and Curry (1993, doi:10.1029/93JC00656) and Launiainen and Cheng (1995). These parameterization approaches easily allow estimation of the turbulent surface fluxes from routine meteorological measurements. The data show: - the role of the intermittency of the turbulent atmospheric fluctuation of momentum and scalars, - the existence of a disturbed vertical temperature profile (sharp inversion layer) close to the surface, - the relevance of possible free convection events for the snow or ice melt in the Arctic spring at Svalbard, and - the relevance of meso-scale atmospheric circulation pattern and air-mass advection for the near-surface turbulent heat exchange in the Arctic spring at Svalbard. Recommendations and improvements regarding the interpretation of eddy-flux and laser-scintillometer data as well as the arrangement of the instrumentation under polar distinct exchange conditions and (extreme) weather situations could be derived.

Isotope characterisation of Villars Cave stalagmites

We present a new mid-latitude speleothem record of millennial-scale climatic variability during OIS3 from the Villars Cave that, combined with former published contemporaneous samples from the same cave, gives a coherent image of the climate variability in SW-France between ~55 ka and ~30 ka. The 0.82 m long stalagmite Vil-stm27 was dated with 26 TIMS U-Th analyses and its growth curve displays variations that are linked with the stable isotopes, both controlled by the climatic conditions. It consists in a higher resolved replicate of the previously published Vil-stm9 and Vil-stm14 stalagmites where Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events have been observed. The good consistency between these three stalagmites and the comparison with other palaoeclimatic reconstructions, especially high resolution pollen records (ODP 976 from the Alboran Sea, Monticchio Lake record from southern Italy) and the nearby MD04-2845 Atlantic Ocean record, permits to draw a specific climatic pattern in SW-France during the OIS3 and to see regional differences between these sites. Main features of this period are: 1) warm events corresponding to Greenland Interstadials (GIS) that are characterized by low speleothem d13C, high temperate pollen percentages, warm temperatures and high humidity; among these events, GIS#12 is the most pronounced one at Villars characterized by an abrupt onset at ~46.6 ka and a duration of about 2.5 ka. The other well individualized warm event coincides with GIS#8 which is however much less pronounced and occurred during a cooler period as shown by a lower growth rate and a higher d13C; 2) cold events corresponding to Greenland Stadials (GS) that are clearly characterized by high speleothem d13C, low temperate pollen abundance, low temperature and enhanced dryness, particularly well expressed during GS coinciding with Heinrich events H5 and H4. The main feature of the Villars record is a general cooling trend between the DO#12 event ~45.5 ka and the synchronous stop of the three stalagmites at ~30 ka ±1, with a first well marked climatic threshold at ~41 ka after which the growth rate and the diameter of all stalagmites slows down significantly. This climatic evolution differs from that shown at southern Mediterranean sites where this trend is not observed. The ~30 ka age marks the second climatic threshold after which low temperatures and low rainfalls prevent speleothem growth in the Villars area until the Lateglacial warming that occurred at ~16.5 ± 0.5 ka. This 15 ka long hiatus, as the older Villars growth hiatus that occurred between 67.4 and 61 ka, are linked to low sea levels, reduced ocean circulation and a southward shift of the Polar Front that likely provoked local permafrost formation. These cold periods coincide with both low summer 65°N insolation, low atmospheric CO2 concentration and large ice sheets development (especially the Fennoscandian).

Las Casas y el pensamiento de Colón : la trama semántica del mundo como la oportunidad del error

Esta ponencia continúa otra en la que analizamos la descripción del nuevo mundo y el funcionamiento de la analogía, a partir de estudios críticos referidos a los Diarios del Primer Viaje de Cristóbal Colón. En esta oportunidad se analizará la dificultad que plantea diferenciar el discurso de Colón en sus Diarios del discurso de Las Casas. En este sentido, la presente ponencia estudiará las intervenciones de Las Casas en el diario de Colón desde su posible inclusión en la episteme de la representación organizada por Michel Foucault en Las palabras y las cosas, en la que indica que en cada momento cultural solo una episteme otorgará las condiciones de posibilidad de todo conocimiento, condiciones que serán otras para una nueva disposición general de los saberes o episteme. Nuestro trabajo consistirá en establecer diferencias epistemológicas entre el discurso colombino, obtenido en dicho diario, y el discurso intercalado de Las Casas (en el mismo texto). Así entonces, desde esta perspectiva, podría considerarse el diálogo textual de los discursos de Colón y de Las Casas desde aquello que los hace posibles, es decir, desde configuraciones del saber (epistemológicas) profundamente diferentes.

El error como anacronismo en la enseñanza de la ciencia

La historia "canónica" de la ciencia es un relato anacrónico plagado de profundas dicotómías, sobredestacando los éxitos (descubrimientos, hallazgos, modelos teóricos triunfantes, hitos) y desestimando los fracasos. En la verdadera ciencia, hay discusión, debate y controversia constantes, alimentados por la dinámica propia de las comunidades disciplinares. En la enseñanza de la ciencia el análisis del "error" puede resultar mucho más interesante como constructo de la evolución del conocimiento, que su simple señalización como demarcación de teorías exitosas. Es igualmente valioso el estudio del fraude. Como la actividad científica depende fuertemente de la publicación, está por tanto condicionada por el discurso. La manipulación hábil de este discurso puede, en ocasiones, hacer especialmente difícil de identificar el artificio, el sesgo, el engaño. El enfoque conocido como "naturaleza de la ciencia" nos permite aprovechar estos elementos para comprender el funcionamiento interno e intrincado del ethos científico, y transmitir a los alumnos dimensiones controversiales de la ciencia como actividad social. La enseñanza de la ciencia puede sacar mucho provecho de estos dispositivos, que permiten segundas lecturas sobre hechos históricos. Traemos a consideración dos hechos científicos de principios del siglo XX, para examinar las complejas relaciones que una simple calificación de fraude o error impediría observar. Destacamos además el casi nulo tratamiento que tienen estos compromisos en los textos escolares de uso corriente. Realizamos sugerencias para que estos temas tengan inclusión en dispositivos didácticos con un enfoque epistemológico más actualizado, que revele el contexto y las tensiones a las que está sujeta la construcción del conocimiento

"En el monumento Resuçitest, fust alos ynfiernos" : ¿Error del poeta o influencia de una fuente en el Cantar de Mio Cid?

El presente trabajo vuelve a los vv. 358-361 del Cantar de Mio Cid sobre un tema que ha perturbado a la crítica: el texto conservado en el Códice de Vivar refiere que Jesús resucitó primero, y luego descendió a los Infiernos, lo cual implica una inversión del orden tradicional de los acontecimientos. En consecuencia, se revisan aquí las distintas opiniones sobre el particular, que en general pueden dividirse básicamente en dos grupos -aquellas que sostienen que el poeta cometió un error, y otras que afirman que el autor del poema adhirió a un determinado modelo, proveniente ya de la épica francesa, ya de la liturgia-, y se intenta arribar a una solución que considere más satisfactoriamente la especificidad del texto manuscrito.