Optimal, minimax, and Bayesian two-stage designs in two-dose phase II clinical trials

Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^

Soil characteristics and Collembola and Acari abundance in control and warming plots at Abisco Research Station

Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate exposes the ecosystem to lower temperatures by the loss of insulating snow. Soil animals, which play an integral part in soil processes, may be very susceptible to such events depending on the intensity of soil warming and low temperatures following these events. We simulated week-long extreme winter warming events - using infrared heating lamps, alone or with soil warming cables - for two consecutive years in a sub-Arctic dwarf shrub heathland. Minimum temperatures were lower and freeze-thaw cycles were 2-11 times more frequent in treatment plots compared with control plots. Following the second event, Acari populations decreased by 39%; primarily driven by declines of Prostigmata (69%) and the Mesostigmatic nymphs (74%). A community-weighted vertical stratification shift occurred from smaller soil dwelling (eu-edaphic) Collembola species dominance to larger litter dwelling (hemi-edaphic) species dominance in the canopy-with-soil warming plots compared with controls. The most susceptible groups to these winter warming events were the smallest individuals (Prostigmata and eu-edaphic Collembola). This was not apparent from abundance data at the Collembola taxon level, indicating that life forms and species traits play a major role in community assembly following extreme events. The observed shift in soil community can cascade down to the micro-flora affecting plant productivity and mineralization rates. Short-term extreme weather events have the potential to shift community composition through trait composition with potentially large consequences for ecosystem development.

Paleomagnetic analysed of two sediment cores off Cape Ghir

Holocene records documenting variations in direction and intensity of the geomagnetic field during the last about seven and a half millennia are presented for Northwest Africa. High resolution paleomagnetic analyses of two marine sediment sequences recovered from around 900 meter water depth on the upper continental slope off Cape Ghir (30°51'N, 10°16'W) were supplemented by magnetic measurements characterizing composition, concentration, grain size and coercivity of the magnetic mineral assemblage. Age control for the high sedimentation rate deposits (~60 cm/kyr) was established by AMS radiocarbon dates. The natural remanent magnetization (NRM) is very predominantly carried by a fine grained, mostly single domain (titano-)magnetite fraction allowing the reliable definition of stable NRM inclinations and declinations from alternating field demagnetization and principal component analysis. Predictions of the Korte and Constable (2005) geomagnetic field model CALS7K.2 for the study area are in fair agreement with the Holocene directional records for the most parts, yet noticeable differences exist in some intervals. The magnetic mineral inventory of the sediments reveals various climate controlled variations, specifically in concentration and grain size. A very strong impact had the mid-Holocene environmental change from humid to arid conditions on the African continent which also clearly affects relative paleointensity (RPI) estimates based on different remanence normalizers. To overcome this problem the pseudo-Thellier RPI technique has been applied. The results represent the first Holocene record of Earth's magnetic field intensity variations in the NW Africa region. It displays long term trends similar to those of model predictions, but also conspicuous millennium scale differences.

Adult acclimation to combined temperature and pH stressors significantly enhances reproductive outcomes compared to short-term exposures

This study examined the effects of long-term culture under altered conditions on the Antarctic sea urchin, Sterechinus neumayeri. Sterechinus neumayeri was cultured under the combined environmental stressors of lowered pH (-0.3 and -0.5 pH units) and increased temperature (+2 °C) for 2 years. This time-scale covered two full reproductive cycles in this species and analyses included studies on both adult metabolism and larval development. Adults took at least 6-8 months to acclimate to the altered conditions, but beyond this, there was no detectable effect of temperature or pH. Animals were spawned after 6 and 17 months exposure to altered conditions, with markedly different outcomes. At 6 months, the percentage hatching and larval survival rates were greatest in the animals kept at 0 °C under current pH conditions, whilst those under lowered pH and +2 °C performed significantly less well. After 17 months, performance was not significantly different across treatments, including controls. However, under the altered conditions urchins produced larger eggs compared with control animals. These data show that under long-term culture adult S. neumayeri appear to acclimate their metabolic and reproductive physiology to the combined stressors of altered pH and increased temperature, with relatively little measureable effect. They also emphasize the importance of long-term studies in evaluating effects of altered pH, particularly in slow developing marine species with long gonad maturation times, as the effects of altered conditions cannot be accurately evaluated unless gonads have fully matured under the new conditions.

Copepod vital rates under CO2-induced acidification: a calanoid species and a cyclopoid species under short-term exposures

Although copepods have been considered tolerant against the direct influence of the ocean acidification (OA) projected for the end of the century, some recent studies have challenged this view. Here, we have examined the direct impact of short-term exposure to a pCO2/pH level relevant for the year 2100 (pHNBS, control: 8.18, low pH: 7.78), on the physiological performance of two representative marine copepods: the calanoid Acartia grani and the cyclopoid Oithona davisae. Adults of both species, from laboratory cultures, were preconditioned for four consecutive days in algal suspensions (Akashiwo sanguinea) prepared with filtered sea water pre-adjusted to the targeted pH values via CO2 bubbling. We measured the feeding and respiratory activity and reproductive output of those pre-conditioned females. The largely unaffected fatty acid composition of the prey offered between OA treatments and controls supports the absence in the study of indirect OA effects (i.e. changes of food nutritional quality). Our results show no direct effect of acidification on the vital rates examined in either copepod species. Our findings are compared with results from previous short- and long-term manipulative experiments on other copepod species.

Efficient term size computation for granularity control

Knowing the size of the terms to which program variables are bound at run-time in logic programs is required in a class of optimizations which includes granularity control and recursion elimination. Such size is difficult to even approximate at compile time and is thus generally computed at run-time by using (possibly predeñned) predicates which traverse the terms involved. We propose a technique which has the potential of performing this computation much more efficiently. The technique is based on ñnding program procedures which are called before those in which knowledge regarding term sizes is needed and which traverse the terms whose size is to be determined, and transforming such procedures so that they compute term sizes "on the fly". We present a systematic way of determining whether a given program can be transformed in order to compute a given term size at a given program point without additional term traversal. Also, if several such transformations are possible our approach allows ñnding minimal transformations under certain criteria. We also discuss the advantages and applications of our technique (specifically in the task of granularity control) and present some performance results.

Control rod drop surveillance using two friction coefficients

In the case of large burnup, a control rod (CR) guide tube in the pressurized water reactor of a commercial nuclear power plant might bend. As a consequence, a CR drop experiment may indicate an event of a CR partially inserted and whether the CR should be deemed inoperable. Early prevention of such an event can be achieved by measuring two friction coefficients: the hydraulic coefficient and the sliding coefficient. The hydraulic coefficient hardly changes, so that the curvature of the guide tube can only be detected thanks to a variation of the sliding coefficient. A simple model for the CR drop is established and validated with CR drop experiments. If tmx denotes the instant of CR maximum velocity, a linear relationship between (tmx)_2 and the sliding coefficient is found.

Effect of conservation tillage on soil physical properties, in-situ rainwater harvesting, and erosion control in arid and semi-arid regions

La escasez del agua en las regiones áridas y semiáridas se debe a la escasez de precipitaciones y la distribución desigual en toda la temporada, lo que hace de la agricultura de secano una empresa precaria. Un enfoque para mejorar y estabilizar el agua disponible para la producción de cultivos en estas regiones es el uso de tecnologías de captación de agua de lluvia in situ y su conservación. La adopción de los sistemas de conservación de la humedad del suelo in situ, tales como la labranza de conservación, es una de las estrategias para mejorar la gestión de la agricultura en zonas áridas y semiáridas. El objetivo general de esta tesis ha sido desarrollar una metodología de aplicación de labranza de depósito e investigar los efectos a corto plazo sobre las propiedades físicas del suelo de las diferentes prácticas de cultivo que incluyen labranza de depósito: (reservoir tillage, RT), la laboreo mínimo: (minimum tillage, MT), la no laboreo: (zero tillage, ZT) y laboreo convencional: (conventional tillage, CT) Así como, la retención de agua del suelo y el control de la erosión del suelo en las zonas áridas y semiáridas. Como una primera aproximación, se ha realizado una revisión profunda del estado de la técnica, después de la cual, se encontró que la labranza de depósito es un sistema eficaz de cosecha del agua de lluvia y conservación del suelo, pero que no ha sido evaluada científicamente tanto como otros sistemas de labranza. Los trabajos experimentales cubrieron tres condiciones diferentes: experimentos en laboratorio, experimentos de campo en una región árida, y experimentos de campo en una región semiárida. Para investigar y cuantificar el almacenamiento de agua a temperatura ambiente y la forma en que podría adaptarse para mejorar la infiltración del agua de lluvia recolectada y reducir la erosión del suelo, se ha desarrollado un simulador de lluvia a escala de laboratorio. Las características de las lluvias, entre ellas la intensidad de las precipitaciones, la uniformidad espacial y tamaño de la gota de lluvia, confirmaron que las condiciones naturales de precipitación son simuladas con suficiente precisión. El simulador fue controlado automáticamente mediante una válvula de solenoide y tres boquillas de presión que se usaron para rociar agua correspondiente a diferentes intensidades de lluvia. Con el fin de evaluar el método de RT bajo diferentes pendientes de superficie, se utilizaron diferentes dispositivos de pala de suelo para sacar un volumen idéntico para hacer depresiones. Estas depresiones se compararon con una superficie de suelo control sin depresión, y los resultados mostraron que la RT fue capaz de reducir la erosión del suelo y la escorrentía superficial y aumentar significativamente la infiltración. Luego, basándonos en estos resultados, y después de identificar la forma adecuada de las depresiones, se ha diseñado una herramienta combinada (sistema integrado de labranza de depósito (RT)) compuesto por un arado de una sola línea de chisel, una sola línea de grada en diente de pico, sembradora modificada, y rodillo de púas. El equipo fue construido y se utiliza para comparación con MT y CT en un ambiente árido en Egipto. El estudio se realizó para evaluar el impacto de diferentes prácticas de labranza y sus parámetros de funcionamiento a diferentes profundidades de labranza y con distintas velocidades de avance sobre las propiedades físicas del suelo, así como, la pérdida de suelo, régimen de humedad, la eficiencia de recolección de agua, y la productividad de trigo de invierno. Los resultados indicaron que la RT aumentó drásticamente la infiltración, produciendo una tasa que era 47.51% más alta que MT y 64.56% mayor que la CT. Además, los resultados mostraron que los valores más bajos de la escorrentía y pérdidas de suelos 4.91 mm y 0.65 t ha-1, respectivamente, se registraron en la RT, mientras que los valores más altos, 11.36 mm y 1.66 t ha-1, respectivamente, se produjeron en el marco del CT. Además, otros dos experimentos de campo se llevaron a cabo en ambiente semiárido en Madrid con la cebada y el maíz como los principales cultivos. También ha sido estudiado el potencial de la tecnología inalámbrica de sensores para monitorizar el potencial de agua del suelo. Para el experimento en el que se cultivaba la cebada en secano, se realizaron dos prácticas de labranza (RT y MT). Los resultados mostraron que el potencial del agua del suelo aumentó de forma constante y fue consistentemente mayor en MT. Además, con independencia de todo el período de observación, RT redujo el potencial hídrico del suelo en un 43.6, 5.7 y 82.3% respectivamente en comparación con el MT a profundidades de suelo (10, 20 y 30 cm, respectivamente). También se observaron diferencias claras en los componentes del rendimiento de los cultivos y de rendimiento entre los dos sistemas de labranza, el rendimiento de grano (hasta 14%) y la producción de biomasa (hasta 8.8%) se incrementaron en RT. En el experimento donde se cultivó el maíz en regadío, se realizaron cuatro prácticas de labranza (RT, MT, ZT y CT). Los resultados revelaron que ZT y RT tenían el potencial de agua y temperatura del suelo más bajas. En comparación con el tratamiento con CT, ZT y RT disminuyó el potencial hídrico del suelo en un 72 y 23%, respectivamente, a la profundidad del suelo de 40 cm, y provocó la disminución de la temperatura del suelo en 1.1 y un 0.8 0C respectivamente, en la profundidad del suelo de 5 cm y, por otro lado, el ZT tenía la densidad aparente del suelo y resistencia a la penetración más altas, la cual retrasó el crecimiento del maíz y disminuyó el rendimiento de grano que fue del 15.4% menor que el tratamiento con CT. RT aumenta el rendimiento de grano de maíz cerca de 12.8% en comparación con la ZT. Por otra parte, no hubo diferencias significativas entre (RT, MT y CT) sobre el rendimiento del maíz. En resumen, según los resultados de estos experimentos, se puede decir que mediante el uso de la labranza de depósito, consistente en realizar depresiones después de la siembra, las superficies internas de estas depresiones se consolidan de tal manera que el agua se mantiene para filtrarse en el suelo y por lo tanto dan tiempo para aportar humedad a la zona de enraizamiento de las plantas durante un período prolongado de tiempo. La labranza del depósito podría ser utilizada como un método alternativo en regiones áridas y semiáridas dado que retiene la humedad in situ, a través de estructuras que reducen la escorrentía y por lo tanto puede resultar en la mejora de rendimiento de los cultivos. ABSTRACT Water shortage in arid and semi-arid regions stems from low rainfall and uneven distribution throughout the season, which makes rainfed agriculture a precarious enterprise. One approach to enhance and stabilize the water available for crop production in these regions is to use in-situ rainwater harvesting and conservation technologies. Adoption of in-situ soil moisture conservation systems, such as conservation tillage, is one of the strategies for upgrading agriculture management in arid and semi-arid environments. The general aim of this thesis is to develop a methodology to apply reservoir tillage to investigate the short-term effects of different tillage practices including reservoir tillage (RT), minimum tillage (MT), zero tillage (ZT), and conventional tillage (CT) on soil physical properties, as well as, soil water retention, and soil erosion control in arid and semi-arid areas. As a first approach, a review of the state of the art has been done. We found that reservoir tillage is an effective system of harvesting rainwater and conserving soil, but it has not been scientifically evaluated like other tillage systems. Experimental works covered three different conditions: laboratory experiments, field experiments in an arid region, and field experiments in a semi-arid region. To investigate and quantify water storage from RT and how it could be adapted to improve infiltration of harvested rainwater and reduce soil erosion, a laboratory-scale rainfall simulator was developed. Rainfall characteristics, including rainfall intensity, spatial uniformity and raindrop size, confirm that natural rainfall conditions are simulated with sufficient accuracy. The simulator was auto-controlled by a solenoid valve and three pressure nozzles were used to spray water corresponding to different rainfall intensities. In order to assess the RT method under different surface slopes, different soil scooping devices with identical volume were used to create depressions. The performance of the soil with these depressions was compared to a control soil surface (with no depression). Results show that RT was able to reduce soil erosion and surface runoff and significantly increase infiltration. Then, based on these results and after selecting the proper shape of depressions, a combination implement integrated reservoir tillage system (integrated RT) comprised of a single-row chisel plow, single-row spike tooth harrow, modified seeder, and spiked roller was developed and used to compared to MT and CT in an arid environment in Egypt. The field experiments were conducted to evaluate the impact of different tillage practices and their operating parameters at different tillage depths and different forward speeds on the soil physical properties, as well as on runoff, soil losses, moisture regime, water harvesting efficiency, and winter wheat productivity. Results indicated that the integrated RT drastically increased infiltration, producing a rate that was 47.51% higher than MT and 64.56% higher than CT. In addition, results showed that the lowest values of runoff and soil losses, 4.91 mm and 0.65 t ha-1 respectively, were recorded under the integrated RT, while the highest values, 11.36 mm and 1.66 t ha -1 respectively, occurred under the CT. In addition, two field experiments were carried out in semi-arid environment in Madrid with barley and maize as the main crops. For the rainfed barley experiment, two tillage practices (RT, and MT) were performed. Results showed that soil water potential increased quite steadily and were consistently greater in MT and, irrespective of the entire observation period, RT decreased soil water potential by 43.6, 5.7, and 82.3% compared to MT at soil depths (10, 20, and 30 cm, respectively). In addition, clear differences in crop yield and yield components were observed between the two tillage systems, grain yield (up to 14%) and biomass yield (up to 8.8%) were increased by RT. For the irrigated maize experiment, four tillage practices (RT, MT, ZT, and CT) were performed. Results showed that ZT and RT had the lowest soil water potential and soil temperature. Compared to CT treatment, ZT and RT decreased soil water potential by 72 and 23% respectively, at soil depth of 40 cm, and decreased soil temperature by 1.1 and 0.8 0C respectively, at soil depth of 5 cm. Also, ZT had the highest soil bulk density and penetration resistance, which delayed the maize growth and decreased the grain yield that was 15.4% lower than CT treatment. RT increased maize grain yield about 12.8% compared to ZT. On the other hand, no significant differences among (RT, MT, and CT) on maize yield were found. In summary, according to the results from these experiments using reservoir tillage to make depressions after seeding, these depression’s internal surfaces are consolidated in such a way that the water is held to percolate into the soil and thus allowing time to offer moisture to the plant rooting zone over an extended period of time. Reservoir tillage could be used as an alternative method in arid and semi-arid regions and it retains moisture in-situ, through structures that reduce runoff and thus can result in improved crop yields.

Modelling and Control of Stepper Motors for High Accuracy Positioning Systems Used in Radioactive Environments

Hybrid Stepper Motors are widely used in open-loop position applications. They are the choice of actuation for the collimators in the Large Hadron Collider, the largest particle accelerator at CERN. In this case the positioning requirements and the highly radioactive operating environment are unique. The latter forces both the use of long cables to connect the motors to the drives which act as transmission lines and also prevents the use of standard position sensors. However, reliable and precise operation of the collimators is critical for the machine, requiring the prevention of step loss in the motors and maintenance to be foreseen in case of mechanical degradation. In order to make the above possible, an approach is proposed for the application of an Extended Kalman Filter to a sensorless stepper motor drive, when the motor is separated from its drive by long cables. When the long cables and high frequency pulse width modulated control voltage signals are used together, the electrical signals difer greatly between the motor and drive-side of the cable. Since in the considered case only drive-side data is available, it is therefore necessary to estimate the motor-side signals. Modelling the entire cable and motor system in an Extended Kalman Filter is too computationally intensive for standard embedded real-time platforms. It is, in consequence, proposed to divide the problem into an Extended Kalman Filter, based only on the motor model, and separated motor-side signal estimators, the combination of which is less demanding computationally. The efectiveness of this approach is shown in simulation. Then its validity is experimentally demonstrated via implementation in a DSP based drive. A testbench to test its performance when driving an axis of a Large Hadron Collider collimator is presented along with the results achieved. It is shown that the proposed method is capable of achieving position and load torque estimates which allow step loss to be detected and mechanical degradation to be evaluated without the need for physical sensors. These estimation algorithms often require a precise model of the motor, but the standard electrical model used for hybrid stepper motors is limited when currents, which are high enough to produce saturation of the magnetic circuit, are present. New model extensions are proposed in order to have a more precise model of the motor independently of the current level, whilst maintaining a low computational cost. It is shown that a significant improvement in the model It is achieved with these extensions, and their computational performance is compared to study the cost of model improvement versus computation cost. The applicability of the proposed model extensions is demonstrated via their use in an Extended Kalman Filter running in real-time for closed-loop current control and mechanical state estimation. An additional problem arises from the use of stepper motors. The mechanics of the collimators can wear due to the abrupt motion and torque profiles that are applied by them when used in the standard way, i.e. stepping in open-loop. Closed-loop position control, more specifically Field Oriented Control, would allow smoother profiles, more respectful to the mechanics, to be applied but requires position feedback. As mentioned already, the use of sensors in radioactive environments is very limited for reliability reasons. Sensorless control is a known option but when the speed is very low or zero, as is the case most of the time for the motors used in the LHC collimator, the loss of observability prevents its use. In order to allow the use of position sensors without reducing the long term reliability of the whole system, the possibility to switch from closed to open loop is proposed and validated, allowing the use of closed-loop control when the position sensors function correctly and open-loop when there is a sensor failure. A different approach to deal with the switched drive working with long cables is also presented. Switched mode stepper motor drives tend to have poor performance or even fail completely when the motor is fed through a long cable due to the high oscillations in the drive-side current. The design of a stepper motor output fillter which solves this problem is thus proposed. A two stage filter, one devoted to dealing with the diferential mode and the other with the common mode, is designed and validated experimentally. With this ?lter the drive performance is greatly improved, achieving a positioning repeatability even better than with the drive working without a long cable, the radiated emissions are reduced and the overvoltages at the motor terminals are eliminated.

Implications of the mesophyll conductance to CO2 for photosynthesis and water-use efficiency during long-term water stress and recovery in two contrasting Eucalyptu species

Water stress (WS) slows growth and photosynthesis (An), but most knowledge comes from short-time studies that do not account for longer term acclimation processes that are especially relevant in tree species. Using two Eucalyptus species that contrast in drought tolerance, we induced moderate and severe water deficits by withholding water until stomatal conductance (gsw) decreased to two pre-defined values for 24 d, WS was maintained at the target gsw for 29 d and then plants were re-watered. Additionally, we developed new equations to simulate the effect on mesophyll conductance (gm) of accounting for the resistance to refixation of CO2. The diffusive limitations to CO2, dominated by the stomata, were the most important constraints to An. Full recovery of An was reached after re-watering, characterized by quick recovery of gm and even higher biochemical capacity, in contrast to the slower recovery of gsw. The acclimation to long-term WS led to decreased mesophyll and biochemical limitations, in contrast to studies in which stress was imposed more rapidly. Finally, we provide evidence that higher gm under WS contributes to higher intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) and reduces the leaf oxidative stress, highlighting the importance of gm as a target for breeding/genetic engineering.

Storage requirements for PV power ramp-rate control

Short-term variability in the power generated by large grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants can negatively affect power quality and the network reliability. New grid-codes require combining the PV generator with some form of energy storage technology in order to reduce short-term PV power fluctuation. This paper proposes an effective method in order to calculate, for any PV plant size and maximum allowable ramp-rate, the maximum power and the minimum energy storage requirements alike. The general validity of this method is corroborated with extensive simulation exercises performed with real 5-s one year data of 500 kW inverters at the 38.5 MW Amaraleja (Portugal) PV plant and two other PV plants located in Navarra (Spain), at a distance of more than 660 km from Amaraleja.

Reproductive long-term effects, endocrine response and fatty acid profile of rabbit does fed diets supplemented with n-3 fatty acids

The effect of a diet enriched with polyunsaturated n -3 fatty acids (PUFA) on endocrine, reproductive, and productive responses of rabbit females and the litters has been studied. Nulliparous does ( n = 125) were fed ad libitum from rearing to second weaning two diets supplemented with different fat sources: 7.5 g/kg lard for the control diet (group C; n = 63) or 15 g/kg of a commercial supplement containing a 50% ether extract and 35% of total fatty acids (FAs) as PUFA n -3 (Group P; n = 62). Dietary treatments did not affect apparent digestibility coefficients of nutrients, or reproductive variables of does including milk pro- duction, mortality and average daily gain of kits over two lactations. However, on Day 5 and 7 post-induction of ovulation, progesterone of Group P tended to increase to a greater extent than in does of Group C. Total PUFAs, n -6 and n -3 and eicosapentanoic (EPA) contents were greater in adipose tissues of does in Group P than in Group C. Docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), EPA, and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) concentrations were greater in peri-ovarian than in scapular fat with abdominal fat being intermediate in concentration. In PUFA sup- plemented does, kit mortality at the second parturition tended to be less than in control does. Also, kits born to does of the PUFA-supplemented group weighed more and were of greater length than from does of control group. In conclusion, effectiveness of dietary intervention on reproductive and performance response is greater in the second parity, which suggests an accumulative long-term beneficial effect of n -3 FA supplementation in reproductive rabbit does

Criterios de aproximación para medir la efectividad de las actuaciones hidrológico-forestales, en el control del fenómeno nivo-torrencial en las cuencas de montaña

La presente Tesis Doctoral establece, con criterios científico-técnicos y como primera aproximación, una metodología para evaluar la protección ante los riesgos naturales que proporciona la restauración hidrológico-forestal de las cuencas hidrográficas de montaña, a los habitantes en ellas y a los transeúntes por las mismas. La investigación se ha planificado dividida en tres secciones en las que se analizan: 1) la protección que proporcionan las cubiertas forestales, tanto si son de regeneración natural o si proceden de reforestación; 2) la que se consigue con las obras ejecutadas en las propias cuencas y sus cauces de drenaje, que en el ámbito de la restauración hidrológico-forestal se vinculan con las reforestaciones, por lo que se hace intervenir a éstas en su evaluación y 3) la que se obtiene con las sinergias que surgen a lo largo de la consolidación de las reforestaciones y de las obras ejecutadas en la cuenca, cumpliendo con el proyecto para su restauración hidrológico-forestal; que se estiman en función del grado de cumplimiento de los objetivos específicos del mismo. La incidencia de las cubiertas forestales en el control de los riesgos naturales en la montaña se ha evaluado: a) teniendo en cuenta las experiencias de las investigaciones sobre la materia desarrolladas en la última década en el área alpina y b) analizando las características dasocráticas de las cubiertas forestales objeto de la investigación y, en función de ellas, identificando los parámetros más representativos que intervienen en el control de los principales riesgos naturales en la montaña (crecidas torrenciales, aludes, deslizamientos del terreno y caídas de bloques). La protección aportada por las obras de corrección se ha evaluado, considerado a las cuencas en las que están ubicadas como unidades específicas de corrección y analizando su comportamiento ante el mayor número de eventos torrenciales posible (que se han definido a partir de todas las precipitaciones registradas en las estaciones meteorológicas de serie histórica más larga, situadas en la cuenca en cuestión o más próximas a ella) y verificando a continuación incidencias que hayan ocurrido en la cuenca y el estado en que han quedado las obras. Con la evaluación de las sinergias surgidas a lo largo de la consolidación del proyecto de restauración, se ha tratado de precisar el grado de cumplimiento de sus principales objetivos; teniendo en cuenta que los resultados del proyecto, por su propia dinámica, se experimentan a medio y largo plazo; intervalo en el que pueden surgir distintos imponderables. En cualquier caso, la restauración de las cuencas de montaña no implica la desaparición en ellas de todos de los riesgos; sino un control de éstos y la consiguiente reducción de sus efectos. Por lo que es necesario realizar trabajos de mantenimiento de las reforestaciones y de las obras ejecutadas en ellas, para que conserven las condiciones de protección inicialmente diseñadas. La metodología se ha aplicado en cinco escenarios del Pirineo Aragonés; tres en los que en el pasado se efectuaron trabajos y obras de restauración hidrológico-forestal (las cuencas vertientes a los torrentes de Arratiecho y de Arás y el paraje de Los Arañones) y otros dos que no fueron intervenidos (la ladera de la margen derecha vertiente al cauce de Canal Roya y la ladera de solana de la cabera de la cuenca de Fondo de Pineta) que sirvan de contraste con los anteriores. ABSTRACT The present Thesis establish a methodology in first approach with scientist and technical criteria to assess the protection of persons provided by the water and forest restoration before natural risks in the mountain watersheds. The research has been planned into three sections where it is analysed: 1) the protection provided by the forest cover itself, either it comes from natural regeneration or reforestation; 2) the protection provided by the works executed within the watersheds and in the drainage channels, which it is bound together with the reforestations of water and forest restorations, assessing both effects at a time; and 3) the protection provided by the synergy that arises along the consolidation of the reforestations and the woks executed in the watersheds as the water and forest restoration project considered. This is estimated according the degree of accomplishment of its specific objectives. The impact of the forest covers in the control of natural risks in the mountain has been assessed: a) having into account the experience in the research about the topic developed in the last decades in the alpine area, and b) analysing the dasocratic characteristics of the forest covers and identifying the more representative parameters that take part in the control of the main natural risks in the mountain (torrential rises, avalanches, landslides and rock falls). The protection supplied by the correction works has been assessed considering the watershed as the specific correction unit, as well as analysing their behaviour before the largest number of torrential events possible. Those were defined from the precipitation recorded in the meteorological stations placed within or the closest to the watershed with long historic data. Then the incidents presented in the watershed and the state of the works are verified. The grade of accomplishment of the main objectives has been specified with the evaluation of the synergies raised along the restoration project. It has to be taken into account that the project has its own dynamics and its results show in mid and long term during a period with events unexpected. In any case, the restoration of the mountain basins doesn't imply the disappearance of all risk, but a control of them and the reduction of their effects. Then, it is necessary maintenance of the reforestations and of the works executed to conserve the protection conditions originally designed. The methodology has been applied into five scenes in the Aragonese Pyrenees; three in which works and water and forest restorations were executed in the past (watershed of Arratiecho and Aras torrents, and the Arañones location), and other two without any intervention that make contrast (the right hill-slope of Canal Roya and the south hill-slope of the headwaters of Pineta valley).

Optimization of the Integrated Guidance and Control for a Dual Aerodynamic Control Missile

Las futuras misiones para misiles aire-aire operando dentro de la atmósfera requieren la interceptación de blancos a mayores velocidades y más maniobrables, incluyendo los esperados vehículos aéreos de combate no tripulados. La intercepción tiene que lograrse desde cualquier ángulo de lanzamiento. Una de las principales discusiones en la tecnología de misiles en la actualidad es cómo satisfacer estos nuevos requisitos incrementando la capacidad de maniobra del misil y en paralelo, a través de mejoras en los métodos de guiado y control modernos. Esta Tesis aborda estos dos objetivos simultáneamente, al proponer un diseño integrando el guiado y el control de vuelo (autopiloto) y aplicarlo a misiles con control aerodinámico simultáneo en canard y cola. Un primer avance de los resultados obtenidos ha sido publicado recientemente en el Journal of Aerospace Engineering, en Abril de 2015, [Ibarrondo y Sanz-Aranguez, 2015]. El valor del diseño integrado obtenido es que permite al misil cumplir con los requisitos operacionales mencionados empleando únicamente control aerodinámico. El diseño propuesto se compara favorablemente con esquemas más tradicionales, consiguiendo menores distancias de paso al blanco y necesitando de menores esfuerzos de control incluso en presencia de ruidos. En esta Tesis se demostrará cómo la introducción del doble mando, donde tanto el canard como las aletas de cola son móviles, puede mejorar las actuaciones de un misil existente. Comparado con un misil con control en cola, el doble control requiere sólo introducir dos servos adicionales para accionar los canards también en guiñada y cabeceo. La sección de cola será responsable de controlar el misil en balanceo mediante deflexiones diferenciales de los controles. En el caso del doble mando, la complicación añadida es que los vórtices desprendidos de los canards se propagan corriente abajo y pueden incidir sobre las superficies de cola, alterando sus características de control. Como un primer aporte, se ha desarrollado un modelo analítico completo para la aerodinámica no lineal de un misil con doble control, incluyendo la caracterización de este efecto de acoplamiento aerodinámico. Hay dos modos de funcionamiento en picado y guiñada para un misil de doble mando: ”desviación” y ”opuesto”. En modo ”desviación”, los controles actúan en la misma dirección, generando un cambio inmediato en la sustentación y produciendo un movimiento de translación en el misil. La respuesta es rápida, pero en el modo ”desviación” los misiles con doble control pueden tener dificultades para alcanzar grandes ángulos de ataque y altas aceleraciones laterales. Cuando los controles actúan en direcciones opuestas, el misil rota y el ángulo de ataque del fuselaje se incrementa para generar mayores aceleraciones en estado estacionario, aunque el tiempo de respuesta es mayor. Con el modelo aerodinámico completo, es posible obtener una parametrización dependiente de los estados de la dinámica de corto periodo del misil. Debido al efecto de acoplamiento entre los controles, la respuesta en bucle abierto no depende linealmente de los controles. El autopiloto se optimiza para obtener la maniobra requerida por la ley de guiado sin exceder ninguno de los límites aerodinámicos o mecánicos del misil. Una segunda contribución de la tesis es el desarrollo de un autopiloto con múltiples entradas de control y que integra la aerodinámica no lineal, controlando los tres canales de picado, guiñada y cabeceo de forma simultánea. Las ganancias del autopiloto dependen de los estados del misil y se calculan a cada paso de integración mediante la resolución de una ecuación de Riccati de orden 21x21. Las ganancias obtenidas son sub-óptimas, debido a que una solución completa de la ecuación de Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman no puede obtenerse de manera práctica, y se asumen ciertas simplificaciones. Se incorpora asimismo un mecanismo que permite acelerar la respuesta en caso necesario. Como parte del autopiloto, se define una estrategia para repartir el esfuerzo de control entre el canard y la cola. Esto se consigue mediante un controlador aumentado situado antes del bucle de optimización, que minimiza el esfuerzo total de control para maniobrar. Esta ley de alimentación directa mantiene al misil cerca de sus condiciones de equilibrio, garantizando una respuesta transitoria adecuada. El controlador no lineal elimina la respuesta de fase no-mínima característica de la cola. En esta Tesis se consideran dos diseños para el guiado y control, el control en Doble-Lazo y el control Integrado. En la aproximación de Doble-Lazo, el autopiloto se sitúa dentro de un bucle interior y se diseña independientemente del guiado, que conforma el bucle más exterior del control. Esta estructura asume que existe separación espectral entre los dos, esto es, que los tiempos de respuesta del autopiloto son mucho mayores que los tiempos característicos del guiado. En el estudio se combina el autopiloto desarrollado con una ley de guiado óptimo. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que se consiguen aumentos muy importantes en las actuaciones frente a misiles con control canard o control en cola, y que la interceptación, cuando se lanza cerca del curso de colisión, se consigue desde cualquier ángulo alrededor del blanco. Para el misil de doble mando, la estrategia óptima resulta en utilizar el modo de control opuesto en la aproximación al blanco y utilizar el modo de desviación justo antes del impacto. Sin embargo la lógica de doble bucle no consigue el impacto cuando hay desviaciones importantes con respecto al curso de colisión. Una de las razones es que parte de la demanda de guiado se pierde, ya que el misil solo es capaz de modificar su aceleración lateral, y no tiene control sobre su aceleración axial, a no ser que incorpore un motor de empuje regulable. La hipótesis de separación mencionada, y que constituye la base del Doble-Bucle, puede no ser aplicable cuando la dinámica del misil es muy alta en las proximidades del blanco. Si se combinan el guiado y el autopiloto en un único bucle, la información de los estados del misil está disponible para el cálculo de la ley de guiado, y puede calcularse la estrategia optima de guiado considerando las capacidades y la actitud del misil. Una tercera contribución de la Tesis es la resolución de este segundo diseño, la integración no lineal del guiado y del autopiloto (IGA) para el misil de doble control. Aproximaciones anteriores en la literatura han planteado este sistema en ejes cuerpo, resultando en un sistema muy inestable debido al bajo amortiguamiento del misil en cabeceo y guiñada. Las simplificaciones que se tomaron también causan que el misil se deslice alrededor del blanco y no consiga la intercepción. En nuestra aproximación el problema se plantea en ejes inerciales y se recurre a la dinámica de los cuaterniones, eliminado estos inconvenientes. No se limita a la dinámica de corto periodo del misil, porque se construye incluyendo de modo explícito la velocidad dentro del bucle de optimización. La formulación resultante en el IGA es independiente de la maniobra del blanco, que sin embargo se ha de incluir en el cálculo del modelo en Doble-bucle. Un típico inconveniente de los sistemas integrados con controlador proporcional, es el problema de las escalas. Los errores de guiado dominan sobre los errores de posición del misil y saturan el controlador, provocando la pérdida del misil. Este problema se ha tratado aquí con un controlador aumentado previo al bucle de optimización, que define un estado de equilibrio local para el sistema integrado, que pasa a actuar como un regulador. Los criterios de actuaciones para el IGA son los mismos que para el sistema de Doble-Bucle. Sin embargo el problema matemático resultante es muy complejo. El problema óptimo para tiempo finito resulta en una ecuación diferencial de Riccati con condiciones terminales, que no puede resolverse. Mediante un cambio de variable y la introducción de una matriz de transición, este problema se transforma en una ecuación diferencial de Lyapunov que puede resolverse mediante métodos numéricos. La solución resultante solo es aplicable en un entorno cercano del blanco. Cuando la distancia entre misil y blanco es mayor, se desarrolla una solución aproximada basada en la solución de una ecuación algebraica de Riccati para cada paso de integración. Los resultados que se han obtenido demuestran, a través de análisis numéricos en distintos escenarios, que la solución integrada es mejor que el sistema de Doble-Bucle. Las trayectorias resultantes son muy distintas. El IGA preserva el guiado del misil y consigue maximizar el uso de la propulsión, consiguiendo la interceptación del blanco en menores tiempos de vuelo. El sistema es capaz de lograr el impacto donde el Doble-Bucle falla, y además requiere un orden menos de magnitud en la cantidad de cálculos necesarios. El efecto de los ruidos radar, datos discretos y errores del radomo se investigan. El IGA es más robusto, resultando menos afectado por perturbaciones que el Doble- Bucle, especialmente porque el núcleo de optimización en el IGA es independiente de la maniobra del blanco. La estimación de la maniobra del blanco es siempre imprecisa y contaminada por ruido, y degrada la precisión de la solución de Doble-Bucle. Finalmente, como una cuarta contribución, se demuestra que el misil con guiado IGA es capaz de realizar una maniobra de defensa contra un blanco que ataque por su cola, sólo con control aerodinámico. Las trayectorias estudiadas consideran una fase pre-programada de alta velocidad de giro, manteniendo siempre el misil dentro de su envuelta de vuelo. Este procedimiento no necesita recurrir a soluciones técnicamente más complejas como el control vectorial del empuje o control por chorro para ejecutar esta maniobra. En todas las demostraciones matemáticas se utiliza el producto de Kronecker como una herramienta practica para manejar las parametrizaciones dependientes de variables, que resultan en matrices de grandes dimensiones. ABSTRACT Future missions for air to air endo-atmospheric missiles require the interception of targets with higher speeds and more maneuverable, including forthcoming unmanned supersonic combat vehicles. The interception will need to be achieved from any angle and off-boresight launch conditions. One of the most significant discussions in missile technology today is how to satisfy these new operational requirements by increasing missile maneuvering capabilities and in parallel, through the development of more advanced guidance and control methods. This Thesis addresses these two objectives by proposing a novel optimal integrated guidance and autopilot design scheme, applicable to more maneuverable missiles with forward and rearward aerodynamic controls. A first insight of these results have been recently published in the Journal of Aerospace Engineering in April 2015, [Ibarrondo and Sanz-Aránguez, 2015]. The value of this integrated solution is that it allows the missile to comply with the aforementioned requirements only by applying aerodynamic control. The proposed design is compared against more traditional guidance and control approaches with positive results, achieving reduced control efforts and lower miss distances with the integrated logic even in the presence of noises. In this Thesis it will be demonstrated how the dual control missile, where canard and tail fins are both movable, can enhance the capabilities of an existing missile airframe. Compared to a tail missile, dual control only requires two additional servos to actuate the canards in pitch and yaw. The tail section will be responsible to maintain the missile stabilized in roll, like in a classic tail missile. The additional complexity is that the vortices shed from the canard propagate downstream where they interact with the tail surfaces, altering the tail expected control characteristics. These aerodynamic phenomena must be properly described, as a preliminary step, with high enough precision for advanced guidance and control studies. As a first contribution we have developed a full analytical model of the nonlinear aerodynamics of a missile with dual control, including the characterization of this cross-control coupling effect. This development has been produced from a theoretical model validated with reliable practical data obtained from wind tunnel experiments available in the scientific literature, complement with computer fluid dynamics and semi-experimental methods. There are two modes of operating a missile with forward and rear controls, ”divert” and ”opposite” modes. In divert mode, controls are deflected in the same direction, generating an increment in direct lift and missile translation. Response is fast, but in this mode, dual control missiles may have difficulties in achieving large angles of attack and high level of lateral accelerations. When controls are deflected in opposite directions (opposite mode) the missile airframe rotates and the body angle of attack is increased to generate greater accelerations in steady-state, although the response time is larger. With the aero-model, a state dependent parametrization of the dual control missile short term dynamics can be obtained. Due to the cross-coupling effect, the open loop dynamics for the dual control missile is not linearly dependent of the fin positions. The short term missile dynamics are blended with the servo system to obtain an extended autopilot model, where the response is linear with the control fins turning rates, that will be the control variables. The flight control loop is optimized to achieve the maneuver required by the guidance law without exceeding any of the missile aerodynamic or mechanical limitations. The specific aero-limitations and relevant performance indicators for the dual control are set as part of the analysis. A second contribution of this Thesis is the development of a step-tracking multi-input autopilot that integrates non-linear aerodynamics. The designed dual control missile autopilot is a full three dimensional autopilot, where roll, pitch and yaw are integrated, calculating command inputs simultaneously. The autopilot control gains are state dependent, and calculated at each integration step solving a matrix Riccati equation of order 21x21. The resulting gains are sub-optimal as a full solution for the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation cannot be resolved in practical terms and some simplifications are taken. Acceleration mechanisms with an λ-shift is incorporated in the design. As part of the autopilot, a strategy is defined for proper allocation of control effort between canard and tail channels. This is achieved with an augmented feed forward controller that minimizes the total control effort of the missile to maneuver. The feedforward law also maintains the missile near trim conditions, obtaining a well manner response of the missile. The nonlinear controller proves to eliminate the non-minimum phase effect of the tail. Two guidance and control designs have been considered in this Thesis: the Two- Loop and the Integrated approaches. In the Two-Loop approach, the autopilot is placed in an inner loop and designed separately from an outer guidance loop. This structure assumes that spectral separation holds, meaning that the autopilot response times are much higher than the guidance command updates. The developed nonlinear autopilot is linked in the study to an optimal guidance law. Simulations are carried on launching close to collision course against supersonic and highly maneuver targets. Results demonstrate a large boost in performance provided by the dual control versus more traditional canard and tail missiles, where interception with the dual control close to collision course is achieved form 365deg all around the target. It is shown that for the dual control missile the optimal flight strategy results in using opposite control in its approach to target and quick corrections with divert just before impact. However the Two-Loop logic fails to achieve target interception when there are large deviations initially from collision course. One of the reasons is that part of the guidance command is not followed, because the missile is not able to control its axial acceleration without a throttleable engine. Also the separation hypothesis may not be applicable for a high dynamic vehicle like a dual control missile approaching a maneuvering target. If the guidance and autopilot are combined into a single loop, the guidance law will have information of the missile states and could calculate the most optimal approach to the target considering the actual capabilities and attitude of the missile. A third contribution of this Thesis is the resolution of the mentioned second design, the non-linear integrated guidance and autopilot (IGA) problem for the dual control missile. Previous approaches in the literature have posed the problem in body axes, resulting in high unstable behavior due to the low damping of the missile, and have also caused the missile to slide around the target and not actually hitting it. The IGA system is posed here in inertial axes and quaternion dynamics, eliminating these inconveniences. It is not restricted to the missile short term dynamic, and we have explicitly included the missile speed as a state variable. The IGA formulation is also independent of the target maneuver model that is explicitly included in the Two-loop optimal guidance law model. A typical problem of the integrated systems with a proportional control law is the problem of scales. The guidance errors are larger than missile state errors during most of the flight and result in high gains, control saturation and loss of control. It has been addressed here with an integrated feedforward controller that defines a local equilibrium state at each flight point and the controller acts as a regulator to minimize the IGA states excursions versus the defined feedforward state. The performance criteria for the IGA are the same as in the Two-Loop case. However the resulting optimization problem is mathematically very complex. The optimal problem in a finite-time horizon results in an irresoluble state dependent differential Riccati equation with terminal conditions. With a change of variable and the introduction of a transition matrix, the equation is transformed into a time differential Lyapunov equation that can be solved with known numerical methods in real time. This solution results range limited, and applicable when the missile is in a close neighborhood of the target. For larger ranges, an approximate solution is used, obtained from solution of an algebraic matrix Riccati equation at each integration step. The results obtained show, by mean of several comparative numerical tests in diverse homing scenarios, than the integrated approach is a better solution that the Two- Loop scheme. Trajectories obtained are very different in the two cases. The IGA fully preserves the guidance command and it is able to maximize the utilization of the missile propulsion system, achieving interception with lower miss distances and in lower flight times. The IGA can achieve interception against off-boresight targets where the Two- Loop was not able to success. As an additional advantage, the IGA also requires one order of magnitude less calculations than the Two-Loop solution. The effects of radar noises, discrete radar data and radome errors are investigated. IGA solution is robust, and less affected by radar than the Two-Loop, especially because the target maneuvers are not part of the IGA core optimization loop. Estimation of target acceleration is always imprecise and noisy and degrade the performance of the two-Loop solution. The IGA trajectories are such that minimize the impact of radome errors in the guidance loop. Finally, as a fourth contribution, it is demonstrated that the missile with IGA guidance is capable of performing a defense against attacks from its rear hemisphere, as a tail attack, only with aerodynamic control. The studied trajectories have a preprogrammed high rate turn maneuver, maintaining the missile within its controllable envelope. This solution does not recur to more complex features in service today, like vector control of the missile thrust or side thrusters. In all the mathematical treatments and demonstrations, the Kronecker product has been introduced as a practical tool to handle the state dependent parametrizations that have resulted in very high order matrix equations.