916 resultados para time-on-task


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The Rio Apa cratonic fragment crops out in Mato Grosso do Sul State of Brazil and in northeastern Paraguay. It comprises Paleo-Mesoproterozoic medium grade metamorphic rocks, intruded by granitic rocks, and is covered by the Neoproterozoic deposits of the Corumbi and Itapocurni Groups. Eastward it is bound by the southern portion of the Paraguay belt. In this work, more than 100 isotopic determinations, including U-Pb SHRIMP zircon ages, Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd whole-rock determinations, as well as K-Ar and Ar-Ar mineral ages, were reassessed in order to obtain a complete picture of its regional geological history. The tectonic evolution of the Rio Apa Craton starts with the formation of a series of magmatic arc complexes. The oldest U-Pb SHRIMP zircon age comes from a banded gneiss collected in the northern part of the region, with an age of 1950 +/- 23 Ma. The large granitic intrusion of the Alumiador Batholith yielded a U-Pb zircon age of 1839 +/- 33 Ma, and from the southeastern part of the area two orthogneisses gave zircon U-Pb ages of 1774 +/- 26 Ma and 1721 +/- 25 Ma. These may be coeval with the Alto Terere metamorphic rocks of the northeastern corner, intruded in their turn by the Baia das Garcas granitic rocks, one of them yielding a zircon U-Pb age of 1754 +/- 49 Ma. The original magmatic protoliths of these rocks involved some crustal component, as indicated by the Sm-Nd TDm model ages, between 1.9 and 2.5 Ga. Regional Sr isotopic homogenization, associated with tectonic deformation and medium-grade metamorphism occurred at approximately 1670 Ma, as suggested by Rb-Sr whole rock reference isochrons. Finally, at 1300 Ma ago, the Ar work indicates that the Rio Apa Craton was affected by widespread regional heating, when the temperature probably exceeded 350 degrees C. Geographic distribution, age and isotopic signature of the fithotectonic units suggest the existence of a major suture separating two different tectonic domains, juxtaposed at about 1670 Ma. From that time on, the unified Rio Apa continental block behaved as one coherent and stable tectonic unit. It correlates well with the SW corner of the Amazonian Craton, where the medium-grade rocks of the Juruena-Rio Negro tectonic province, with ages between 1600 and 1780 Ma, were reworked at about 1300 Ma. Looking at the largest scale, the Rio Apa Craton is probably attached to the larger Amazonian Craton, and the actual configuration of southwestern South America is possibly due to a complex arrangement of allochthonous blocks such as the Arequipa, Antofalla and Pampia, with different sizes, that may have originated as disrupted parts of either Laurentia or Amazonia, and were trapped during later collisions of these continental masses.

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We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.

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An exploratory investigation was conducted on the effects of application of ozone on the removal of organic and inorganic contaminants and the reduction of settleable solids in urban lake sediments. Homogenized sediment samples were treated in a batch reactor with an external recirculation loop and ozone feed from a Venturi injector. The ozone generating system was fed with ambient air with small footprint and operational simplicity. Ozone mass application (g/h) and contact time (min) were varied over wide ranges during testing. The effects of the ozone mass applied per unit time and the contact time on contaminant removal efficiencies were analyzed and a trade-off between the costs of ozonation and of solids treatment and disposal was proposed. The minimum ozone mass application required for total contaminant removal apparently depended on the type of organic contaminant present. An apparent influence of inorganic contaminant speciation on the removal efficiency was found and discussed.

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The nonadiabatic photochemistry of the guanine molecule (2-amino-6-oxopurine) and some of its tautomers has been studied by means of the high-level theoretical ab initio quantum chemistry methods CASSCF and CASPT2. Accurate computations, based by the first time on minimum energy reaction paths, states minima, transition states, reaction barriers, and conical intersections on the potential energy hypersurfaces of the molecules lead to interpret the photochemistry of guanine and derivatives within a three-state model. As in the other purine DNA nucleobase, adenine, the ultrafast subpicosecond fluorescence decay measured in guanine is attributed to the barrierless character of the path leading from the initially populated (1)(pi pi* L-a) spectroscopic state of the molecule toward the low-lying methanamine-like conical intersection (gs/pi pi* L-a)(CI). On the contrary, other tautomers are shown to have a reaction energy barrier along the main relaxation profile. A second, slower decay is attributed to a path involving switches toward two other states, (1)(pi pi* L-b) and, in particular, (1)(n(o)pi*), ultimately leading to conical intersections with the ground state. A common framework for the ultrafast relaxation of the natural nucleobases is obtained in which the predominant role of a pi pi*-type state is confirmed.

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This essay is about dogs that visit is used, whitin care of elderly. The dogs found caretakers once a week and one hour at a time. The focus has been placed on the dogs that go to the municipality's special accommodation and the research was done in a medium-sized municipality in Sweden. The focus of the narrowing of the work was done to the work situation for care staff to assess the impact of the visits the dogs presence. It was distributed questionnaires answered by care staff in which it concluded their visit to the dog's presence felt and how it impacted the situation. There has been much previous research done on how dogs affect the elderly in care. This has been done to see if the care staff perceive the same thing, and in turn experience any possible help of visiting dogs. What emerged in this study is that most are in favor of visits dog and they're older. The majority of respondents agreed that their work situation has become neither better nor worse then visit the dogs started to meet caretakers. This may be due to visit the dog is not enough time on site at each visit. Even the fact that care staff are not practicing with the caretakers memory to get them to remain in the state of mind that research shows that the older gets in. These can have an impact on how care staff perceive a possible means in visits of the dog.

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Most science centres in Canada employ science-educated floor staff to motivate visitorsto have fun while enhancing the educational reach of the exhibits. Although bright andsensitive to visitors’ needs, floor staff are rarely consulted in the planning,implementation, and modification phases of an exhibit. Instead, many developmentteams rely on costly third-party evaluations or skip the front-end and formativeevaluations all together, leading to costly errors that could have been avoided. This studywill seek to reveal a correlation between floor staff’s perception of visitors’ interactionswith an exhibit and visitors’ actual experiences. If a correlation exists, a recommendationcould be made to encourage planning teams to include floor staff in the formative andsummative evaluations of an exhibit. This is especially relevant to science centres withlimited budgets and for whom a divide exists between floor staff and management.In this study, a formative evaluation of one exhibit was conducted, measuring both floorstaff’s perceptions of the visitor experience and visitors’ own perceptions of the exhibit.Floor staff were then trained on visitor evaluation methods. A week later, floor staff andvisitors were surveyed a second time on a different exhibit to determine whether anincrease in accuracy existed.The training session increased the specificity of the motivation and comprehensionresponses and the enthusiasm of the staff, but not their ability to predict observedbehaviours with respect to ergonomics, learning indicators, holding power, and successrates. The results revealed that although floor staff underestimated visitors’ success ratesat the exhibits, staff accurately predicted visitors’ behaviours with respect to holdingpower, ergonomics, learning indicators, motivation and comprehension, both before andafter the staff training.

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Objectives:To find variables correlated to improvement with intraduodenal levodopa/carbidopa infusion (Duodopa) in order to identify potential candidates for this treatment. Two clinical studies comparing Duodopa with oral treatments in patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease have shown significant improvement in percent on-time on a global treatment response scale (TRS) based on hourly and half-hourly clinical ratings and in median UPDRS scores.Methods:Data from study 1 comparing infusion with Sinemet CR (12 patients, Nyholm et al, Clin Neuropharmacol 2003; 26(3): 156-163) and study 2 comparing infusion with individually optimised conventional combination therapies (18 patients, Nyholm et al, Neurology, in press) were used. Measures of severity were defined as total UPDRS score and scores for sections II and III, percent functional on-time and mean squared error of ratings on the TRS and as mean of diary questions about mobility and satisfaction (only study 2). Absolute improvement was defined as difference in severity, and relative improvement was defined as percent absolute improvement/severity on oral treatment. Pearson correlation coefficients between measures of improvement and other variables were calculated.Results:Correlations (r2>0.28, p<0.05) between severity during oral treatment and absolute improvement on infusion were found for: Total UPDRS, UPDRS III and TRS ratings (studies 1 and 2) and for diary question 1 (mobility) and UPDRS II (study 2). Correlation to relative improvement was found for total UPDRS (study 2, r2=0.47). Figure 1 illustrates absolute improvement in total UPDRS vs. total UPDRS during oral treatment (study 2).Conclusion:Correlating different measures of severity and improvement revealed that patients with more severe symptoms were most improved and that the relation between severity and improvement was linear within the studied groups. The result, which was reproducible between two clinical studies, could be useful when deciding candidates for the treatment.

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Entrepreneurs are portrayed as salient drivers of regional development and for a number of years nascent entrepreneurs have been studied in a large number of countries as part of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor project and the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics. Scholars have devoted much effort to investigating factors that determine how individuals engage in entrepreneurial activities, with most of the discussion limited to business start-ups. However, since this type of project does not follow identical nascent entrepreneurs over time, limited knowledge exists about their development and whether they stay in this nascent phase for a long time. In practice, it is common for entrepreneurs to run a business and at the same time work in wage work, so-called combining entrepreneurs. In Sweden, almost half of all business owners combine wage work with a business. However, not all combining entrepreneurs will eventually decide to leave the wage work and invest fully in the business. Consequently, much research has focused on the first step of entering entrepreneurship full time, but less has focused on the second step, the transition from the combining phase to full-time self-employment. The aim of this thesis is therefore to contribute to the theory of entrepreneurship by gaining a deeper understanding of combining entrepreneurs and their motives and intentions.   In the context of combining entrepreneurs, the theory of identity, resources and choice overload has been used to examine how entrepreneurs’ age (when starting the business), entrepreneurial tenure (the length of engagement in the side-business), hours spent (weekly involvement in the side-business), involvement in entrepreneurial teams (leading the business with one or more partners) and involvement in networks (business networks) influence their passion for engaging in entrepreneurship while sustaining wage work. Different categories of combining entrepreneurs and their intentions have also been examined.   A survey was administered to 1457 entrepreneurs within the creative sector in two counties in Sweden (Gävleborgs County and Jämtlands County). Since there were no separate mailing lists to only combining entrepreneurs, the survey was sent to all entrepreneurs within the chosen industry and counties. The total response rate was 33.5 percent and of them 57.6 percent combined, yielding 262 combining entrepreneurs who answered the questionnaire. The survey was then followed up with eight focus group interviews and two single interviews to validate the answers from the questionnaire.   The results indicate three types of combining entrepreneurs: nascent – with the intention to leave the combining phase for a transition into full-time self-employment, lifestyle – with the intention to stay in the combining phase, and occasional – with the intention to leave the combining phase for full-time wage work and close down the business. Transitioning fully to self-employment increases with the individual’s age. Also, a positive interactive effect exists with involvement in entrepreneurial networks. The results also indicate that the ability to work with something one is passionate about is the top motive for combining wage work with a side-business. Passion is also more likely to be the main motive behind the combining form among individuals who are older at business start-up, but passion is less likely to be the main motive behind the combining form among individuals who spend more time on the business. The longer the individual has had the side-business, the less likely passion is the main motive behind the combining form, and passion is less likely to be the main motive among those who are part of an entrepreneurial team.

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No próximo ano, completam-se 40 anos desde a primeira tentativa de transplante hepático (TxH) em seres humanos. Há quase 20 anos, o transplante (Tx) tornou-se uma opção terapêutica real para os pacientes portadores de doença hepática terminal. Atualmente, o TxH é o tratamento de escolha para diversas enfermidades hepáticas, agudas ou crônicas. Dos transplantes realizados na Europa ou nos EUA, em torno de 12% dos pacientes são crianças e adolescentes. No Brasil, 20,9% dos pacientes transplantados de fígado em 2001 tinham até 18 anos de idade e, destes, 60,7% tinham 5 anos ou menos. O objetivo do TxH é a manutenção da vida dos pacientes com doença hepática irreversível, e a principal forma de avaliação de sucesso é a sobrevida após o Tx. A primeira semana que se segue ao TxH, apesar dos excelentes progressos dos últimos anos, continua sendo o período mais crítico. A maioria dos óbitos ou das perdas do enxerto ocorrem nas primeiras semanas, em particular, nos primeiros 7 dias de TxH. Diversos fatores de risco para o resultado do TxH podem ser identificados na literatura, porém há poucos estudos específicos do Tx pediátrico. As crianças pequenas apresentam características particulares que os diferenciam do Tx nos adultos e nas crianças maiores. Com o objetivo de identificar fatores de risco para o óbito nos 7 primeiros dias após os transplantes hepáticos eletivos realizados em 45 crianças e adolescentes no Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre entre março de 1995 e agosto de 2001, foi realizado um estudo de caso-controle. Entre os 6 casos (13,3%) e os 39 controles foram comparadas características relacionadas ao receptor, ao doador e ao procedimento cirúrgico e modelos prognósticos. Das variáveis relacionadas ao receptor, o gênero, o escore Z do peso e da estatura para a idade, a atresia de vias biliares, a cirurgia abdominal prévia, a cirurgia de Kasai, a história de ascite, de peritonite bacteriana espontânea, de hemorragia digestiva e de síndrome hepatopulmonar, a albuminemia, o INR, o tempo de tromboplastina parcial ativada e o fator V não foram associados com o óbito na primeira semana. A mortalidade inicial foi maior nas crianças com menor idade (p=0,0035), peso (p=0,0062) e estatura (p<0,0001), bilirrubinemia total (BT) (p=0,0083) e bilirrubinemia não conjugada (BNC) (p=0,0024) elevadas, e colesterolemia reduzida (p=0,0385). Os receptores menores de 3 anos tiveram um risco 25,5 vezes maior de óbito que as crianças maiores (IC 95%: 1,3–487,7). A chance de óbito após o Tx dos pacientes com BT superior a 20 mg/dL e BNC maior que 6 mg/dL foi 7,8 (IC95%: 1,2–50,1) e 12,7 (IC95%: 1,3–121,7) vezes maior que daqueles com níveis inferiores, respectivamente. Das características relacionadas ao doador e ao Tx, as variáveis gênero, doador de gênero e grupo sangüíneo ABO não idênticos ao do receptor, razão peso do doador/receptor, causa do óbito do doador, enxerto reduzido, tempo em lista de espera e experiência do Programa não foram associados com o óbito nos primeiros 7 dias. Transplantes com enxertos de doadores de idade até 3 anos, ou de peso até 12 Kg representaram risco para o óbito dos receptores 6,8 (IC95%: 1,1–43,5) e 19,3 (IC95%: 1,3–281,6) vezes maior, respectivamente. O tempo de isquemia total foi em média de 2 horas maior nos transplantes dos receptores não sobreviventes (p=0,0316). Os modelos prognósticos Child-Pugh, Rodeck e UNOS não foram preditivos do óbito. Os pacientes classificados como alto risco no modelo de Malatack apresentaram razão de chances para o óbito 18,0 (IC95%: 1,2–262,7) vezes maior que aqueles com baixo risco. A mortalidade na primeira semana foi associada a valores elevados do escore PELD. O risco de óbito foi de 11,3 (IC95%: 1,2–107,0) nas crianças com valor do PELD maior que 10. As crianças pequenas e com maior disfunção hepática apresentaram maior risco de óbito precoce. Doador de pequeno porte e prolongamento do tempo de isquemia também foram associados à mortalidade. Somente os modelos de Malatack e PELD foram preditivos da sobrevida.

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O presente trabalho discute os terraços lagunares da margem leste da Laguna dos Patos, localizados próximo à cidade de Mostardas. Através desse estudo é apresentado um novo modelo evolutivo para os últimos 5.000 anos no Litoral Médio do Rio Grande do Sul. Novas ferramentas foram utilizadas pela primeira vez no estudo da planície costeira do Rio Grande do Sul. Com respeito a aquisição dos dados de subsuperfície foi utilizado com êxito um GPR (Ground Penetretion Radar). Na análise e interpretação dos dados foi feita uma tentativa de aplicação da estratigrafia de seqüências. Através do uso de um scanner foram elaborados perfis dos testemunhos de sondagem, identificando aspectos distintos na composição e porosidade de diferentes litologias. Outras ferramentas utilizadas constam de sensoriamento remoto, nivelamento altimétrico e batimétrico, vibracore e datação radiométrica. Dessa forma, foram definidas três feições de terraceamento lagunar de idade holocênica na área de estudo, cada uma relacionada a um nível lagunar distinto. Através dos dados obtidos em subsuperfície foi possível traçar um esboço cronoestratigráfico, bem como uma curva de variação relativa do nível lagunar para a região. Também, como resultado dos dados geológicos de superfície, associados a novas interpretações baseadas em fotografias aéreas e imagens de satélite, foi elaborado um mapa geológico atualizado.

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O trabalho apresenta uma avaliação dos prováveis impactos do escalonamento dos horários das aulas noturnas em uma Universidade. Neste trabalho foi investigada, a preferência dos usuários quanto às possíveis alterações nos horários de entrada de aulas, e os impactos do escalonamento na rede viária no entorno do campus. O trabalho envolveu a construção de diversos cenários de alterações nos horários de início das aulas. Os cenários foram construídos visando atender as preferências da população universitária e reduzir a interferência do pico de chegada de alunos no sistema viário. A avaliação dos impactos destes cenários no tráfego foi realizada através de simulação, com a utilização do modelo TSIS/NETSIM. As análises foram baseadas em dois indicadores de desempenho: a velocidade média e o tempo de atraso médio na rede.

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A presente dissertação tem por objetivo criar um modelo de compras de rMRO (manutenção, reparos e operações) baseado na Internet, para a Michelin no Brasil. Atualmente, a empresa Michelin está participando de uma comunidade virtual, sob a forma de um "vertal", criada pelas maiores empresas da indústria de pneu e borracha (Michelin, Goodyear, Pirelli, Continental, Cooper, Sumitomo, entre outras), e cuja intenção é desenvolver uma praça de mercado global para realização das suas compras e aprovisionamentos. A Rubbernetwork.com (RNC) foi fundada como uma empresa independente, reunindo o conjunto das compras da indústria de pneu e borracha, representando um valor de mais de cinqüenta bilhões de dólares por ano gastos em matérias-primas, equipamentos, maquinário, bens e serviços. Esta central de compras permitirá a seus membros aumentar a eficácia de suas operações e realizar economias substanciais nos custos de transação. Cada transação será protegida por apropriados sistemas advindos da implementação da tecnologia da informação, a fim de garantir a confidencialidade de todas as atividades comerciais de cada empresa individualmente. Os membros participantes estão convencidos de que a iniciativa possibilitará economias significativas e melhorará a eficiência de suas cadeias de valor. A comunidade virtual será aberta a todos os fabricantes e fornecedores relacionados à indústria de pneu e borracha, sendo também bem vindas oportunidades 2 de interação com outras comunidades virtuais, especialmente aquelas associadas à indústria automotiva. É dentro do contexto de implementação do projeto Rubbernetwork.com (RNC) que a dissertação se desenvolverá, tecendo estratégias e modelos de negócios concernentes aos processos de compras relacionados a MRO (manutenção, reparos e operações). O desenvolvimento de um "vertal" na Internet não impede que portais horizontais complementares, e não excludentes, sejam também acrescidos como alternativa de negócios. Há de se dar um tratamento específico às compras diárias que envolvem um grande número de diferentes fornecedores, várias áreas internas na empresa e consomem tempo desnecessário em trabalhos burocráticos, sem fins estratégicos. Cabe ressaltar que tal categoria de compras, denominada MRO, apesar de seu baixo valor por produto ou serviço adquirido, gera um elevado volume de transações e um alto impacto operacional. Pelo fato de tratar-se de uma experiência inovadora em setor de características próprias - mercado de pneu e borracha -, e de estar-se criando uma expectativa de cooperação entre empresas concorrentes, em busca da racionalização do processo de compras e divisão de custos operacionais, a metodologia utilizada, quanto aos seus fins, será exploratória e aplicada I. Quanto aos meios de investigação, a pesquisa realizada será: de campo, estudo de caso e bibliográfica. O universo da pesquisa restringir-se-á à empresa Michelin, onde o processo de compras de MRO baseado na Internet será contemplado, através de levantamento de dados nos E.UA e França, a fim de propor-se um modelo para a Michelin Brasil.

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The rapid growth of urban areas has a significant impact on traffic and transportation systems. New management policies and planning strategies are clearly necessary to cope with the more than ever limited capacity of existing road networks. The concept of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) arises in this scenario; rather than attempting to increase road capacity by means of physical modifications to the infrastructure, the premise of ITS relies on the use of advanced communication and computer technologies to handle today’s traffic and transportation facilities. Influencing users’ behaviour patterns is a challenge that has stimulated much research in the ITS field, where human factors start gaining great importance to modelling, simulating, and assessing such an innovative approach. This work is aimed at using Multi-agent Systems (MAS) to represent the traffic and transportation systems in the light of the new performance measures brought about by ITS technologies. Agent features have good potentialities to represent those components of a system that are geographically and functionally distributed, such as most components in traffic and transportation. A BDI (beliefs, desires, and intentions) architecture is presented as an alternative to traditional models used to represent the driver behaviour within microscopic simulation allowing for an explicit representation of users’ mental states. Basic concepts of ITS and MAS are presented, as well as some application examples related to the subject. This has motivated the extension of an existing microscopic simulation framework to incorporate MAS features to enhance the representation of drivers. This way demand is generated from a population of agents as the result of their decisions on route and departure time, on a daily basis. The extended simulation model that now supports the interaction of BDI driver agents was effectively implemented, and different experiments were performed to test this approach in commuter scenarios. MAS provides a process-driven approach that fosters the easy construction of modular, robust, and scalable models, characteristics that lack in former result-driven approaches. Its abstraction premises allow for a closer association between the model and its practical implementation. Uncertainty and variability are addressed in a straightforward manner, as an easier representation of humanlike behaviours within the driver structure is provided by cognitive architectures, such as the BDI approach used in this work. This way MAS extends microscopic simulation of traffic to better address the complexity inherent in ITS technologies.

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Introdução. Danos no DNA mitocondrial (DNAmt) têm sido descritos em pacientes com doença renal crônica (DRC). Estes danos podem ser avaliados através da deleção 4977pb do DNAmt em diversos tecidos. Métodos. Identificamos a prevalência da deleção 4977pb do DNAmt através da técnica da reação em cadeia da polimerase (PCR) no sangue de pacientes com DRC em tratamento conservador (creatinina >2mg/dl) ou submetidos a hemodiálise. Resultados. A freqüência da ocorrência da deleção do DNAmt foi de 73.1% (38/52) nos pacientes com DRC submetidos a hemodiálise, 57.1% (27/42) nos pacientes com DRC em tratamento conservador e 27.8% (15/54) nos controles (P< 0.001). Não encontramos aumento da freqüência desta deleção em relação a idade dos pacientes com DRC (P= 0.54) ou ao tempo de diálise (P= 0.70). Conclusão. Danos no DNAmt podem ser induzidos pela DRC em especial nos pacientes submetidos a hemodiálise. Desta forma, a deleção 4977pb do DNAmt pode servir como um marcador de danos moleculares em pacientes com DRC.

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A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de “big data” de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.