Electricity markets modeling considering complex contracts and aggregators

All over the world, the liberalization of electricity markets, which follows different paradigms, has created new challenges for those involved in this sector. In order to respond to these challenges, electric power systems suffered a significant restructuring in its mode of operation and planning. This restructuring resulted in a considerable increase of the electric sector competitiveness. Particularly, the Ancillary Services (AS) market has been target of constant renovations in its operation mode as it is a targeted market for the trading of services, which have as main objective to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. In this way, with the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources including distributed generation, demand response, storage units and electric vehicles, it is essential to develop new smarter and hierarchical methods of operation of electric power systems. As these resources are mostly connected to the distribution network, it is important to consider the introduction of this kind of resources in AS delivery in order to achieve greater reliability and cost efficiency of electrical power systems operation. The main contribution of this work is the design and development of mechanisms and methodologies of AS market and for energy and AS joint market, considering different management entities of transmission and distribution networks. Several models developed in this work consider the most common AS in the liberalized market environment: Regulation Down; Regulation Up; Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve. The presented models consider different rules and ways of operation, such as the division of market by network areas, which allows the congestion management of interconnections between areas; or the ancillary service cascading process, which allows the replacement of AS of superior quality by lower quality of AS, ensuring a better economic performance of the market. A major contribution of this work is the development an innovative methodology of market clearing process to be used in the energy and AS joint market, able to ensure viable and feasible solutions in markets, where there are technical constraints in the transmission network involving its division into areas or regions. The proposed method is based on the determination of Bialek topological factors and considers the contribution of the dispatch for all services of increase of generation (energy, Regulation Up, Spinning and Non-Spinning reserves) in network congestion. The use of Bialek factors in each iteration of the proposed methodology allows limiting the bids in the market while ensuring that the solution is feasible in any context of system operation. Another important contribution of this work is the model of the contribution of distributed energy resources in the ancillary services. In this way, a Virtual Power Player (VPP) is considered in order to aggregate, manage and interact with distributed energy resources. The VPP manages all the agents aggregated, being able to supply AS to the system operator, with the main purpose of participation in electricity market. In order to ensure their participation in the AS, the VPP should have a set of contracts with the agents that include a set of diversified and adapted rules to each kind of distributed resource. All methodologies developed and implemented in this work have been integrated into the MASCEM simulator, which is a simulator based on a multi-agent system that allows to study complex operation of electricity markets. In this way, the developed methodologies allow the simulator to cover more operation contexts of the present and future of the electricity market. In this way, this dissertation offers a huge contribution to the AS market simulation, based on models and mechanisms currently used in several real markets, as well as the introduction of innovative methodologies of market clearing process on the energy and AS joint market. This dissertation presents five case studies; each one consists of multiple scenarios. The first case study illustrates the application of AS market simulation considering several bids of market players. The energy and ancillary services joint market simulation is exposed in the second case study. In the third case study it is developed a comparison between the simulation of the joint market methodology, in which the player bids to the ancillary services is considered by network areas and a reference methodology. The fourth case study presents the simulation of joint market methodology based on Bialek topological distribution factors applied to transmission network with 7 buses managed by a TSO. The last case study presents a joint market model simulation which considers the aggregation of small players to a VPP, as well as complex contracts related to these entities. The case study comprises a distribution network with 33 buses managed by VPP, which comprises several kinds of distributed resources, such as photovoltaic, CHP, fuel cells, wind turbines, biomass, small hydro, municipal solid waste, demand response, and storage units.

Acute renal failure after massive honeybee stings

Two clinical cases of patients who survived after numerous attacks of Africanized bees (600 and 1500 bee stings, respectively) are reported. Clinical manifestation was characterized by diffuse and widespread edema, a burning sensation in the skin, headache, weakness, dizziness, generalized paresthesia, somnolence and hypotension. Acute renal failure developed and was attributed to hypotension, intravascular hemolysis, myoglobinuria due to rhabdomyolysis and probably to direct toxic effect of the massive quantity of injected venom. They were treated with antihistaminic, corticosteroids and fluid infusion. One of them had severe acute renal failure and dialysis was required. No clinical complication was observed during hospital stay and complete renal function recovery was observed in both patients. In conclusion, acute renal failure after bee stings is probably due to pigment nephropathy associated with hypovolemia. Early recognition of this syndrome is crucial to the successful management of these patients.

Seroprevalence of antibodies to Venezuelan equine encephalitis complex (subtypes IAB and VI) in humans from General Belgrano Island, Formosa, Argentina

This work presents the results of the detection of antibodies (immunoglobulin G) for subtypes I and VI of VEE viruses complex (Togaviridae family) in people from the General Belgrano island, Formosa province (Argentina). The prevalence of neutralizing (NT) antibodies for subtype VI was from 30% to 70% and the prevalence of antibodies inhibitory of hemagglutination (HI) was of 0% in the first and second inquiry respectively. For the subtype IAB the prevalence of NT antibodies was from 13% to 3.6%, similar to the prevalence total for both subtypes. HI antibodies were not detected in any inquiries for any subtype. It was observed that both subtypes circulate simultaneously, while subtype VI remains constant with some peaks, subtype I was found in low level.

The Prognostic Impact of Renal Failure in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction

INTRODUCTION: Renal insufficiency (RI) is associated with higher morbidity and mortality in patients (P) with coronary artery disease and in P submitted to angioplasty. In ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEAMI), this impact has not been well demonstrated. AIM: To evaluate the impact of RI in P with STEAMI. METHODS: We evaluated 160 P admitted with STEAMI, mean age of 62+/-14 years, 76% male. We determined creatinine levels on admission. RI was defined as a level >1.5 mg/dl. Analysis of clinical, electrocardiographic and laboratory variables was performed, in relation to the endpoint defined as the occurrence of death at 30-day follow-up. RESULTS: There were 16 deaths (10%) at 30-day follow-up. P with RI (n=21) were older (68+/-11 vs 61+/-14 years, p<0.001), more often had diabetes (57 vs 24 %, p=0.004) and presented more often with Killip class > or =2 (57 vs 12%, p<0.001). The use of statins (62 vs 83%, p=0.05) and beta-blockers (24 vs 65%, p<0.001) was lower in P with RI. Mortality was higher in RI P (62 vs 2%, p<0.001). The univariate predictors of death were age > or =75 years, diabetes, Killip class > or =2 on admission, RI, non-use of statins and beta-blockers and use of diuretics. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors of death at 30 days were RI (HR 29.6, 95% CI 6.3-139.9, p<0.001) and non-use of beta-blockers (HR 0.13, 95% CI 0.02-1.01, p=0.01). CONCLUSION: In P admitted for STEAMI, the presence of RI was an independent predictor of death at 30 days whereas the usage of beta-blockers was protective.

Condition-Based Diagnosis of Mechatronic Systems Using a Fractional Calculus Approach

While fractional calculus (FC) is as old as integer calculus, its application has been mainly restricted to mathematics. However, many real systems are better described using FC equations than with integer models. FC is a suitable tool for describing systems characterised by their fractal nature, long-term memory and chaotic behaviour. It is a promising methodology for failure analysis and modelling, since the behaviour of a failing system depends on factors that increase the model’s complexity. This paper explores the proficiency of FC in modelling complex behaviour by tuning only a few parameters. This work proposes a novel two-step strategy for diagnosis, first modelling common failure conditions and, second, by comparing these models with real machine signals and using the difference to feed a computational classifier. Our proposal is validated using an electrical motor coupled with a mechanical gear reducer.

Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

Reconstitution of the failure of the Fonte Santa mine tailings dam. Modelling of the dam breaching process

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil Perfil de Estruturas e Geotecnia

Coarctação Isolada da Aorta: Experiência em 100 Doentes Consecutivos

INTRODUCTION: Coarctation of the aorta (CoA) is a stenosis usually located in the descending aorta. Treatment consists of surgical or percutaneous removal of the obstruction and presents excellent immediate results but significant residual problems often persist. OBJECTIVES: To describe the presentation, treatment and long-term evolution of a population of 100 unselected consecutive patients with isolated CoA in a single pediatric cardiology center. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of all patients with isolated CoA treated during4 the last 21 years (1987-2008). RESULTS: The patients (n=100, 68.3% male) were diagnosed at a median age of 94 days (1 day to 16 years). The clinical presentation differed between patients aged less or more than one year, the former presenting with heart failure and the latter being asymptomatic with evidence of hypertension (88 and 63%, respectively; p < 0.01). Treatment, a median of 8 days after diagnosis, was surgical in 79 cases (20 end-to-end anastomosis, 31 subclavian flap, 28 patch) and percutaneous in the remaining 21 (15 balloon angioplasty, 6 with stenting). The mean age of surgical patients was younger than in those treated percutaneously (3.4 vs. 7.5 years; p < 0.01). Immediate mortality was 2% and occurred in the surgical group. There was no late mortality, in a mean follow-up of 7.2 +/- 5.4 years. Recoarctation occurred in 8 patients (6 surgical, 2 percutaneous). There are 46 patients who currently have hypertension (19 at rest, 27 with effort), their median age at diagnosis being older than the others (23 vs. 995 days; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Isolated CoA has an excellent short-term prognosis but a significant incidence of long-term complications, and should thus no longer be seen as a simple obstruction in the descending aorta, but rather as a complex pathology that requires careful follow-up after treatment. Its potentially insidious presentation requires a high level of clinical suspicion, femoral pulse palpation during physical examination of newborns and older children being particularly important. Delay in treatment has an impact on late morbidity and mortality. Taking into account the data currently available on late and immediate results, the final choice of therapeutic technique depends on the patient's age, associated lesions and the experience of the medical-surgical team. Hypertension should be closely monitored in the follow-up of these patients, as well as its risk factors and complications.

Entropy Analysis of Industrial Accident Data Series

Complex industrial plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller parts and with human operators. Failure in one part can propagate across subsystem boundaries causing a serious disaster. This paper analyzes the industrial accident data series in the perspective of dynamical systems. First, we process real world data and show that the statistics of the number of fatalities reveal features that are well described by power law (PL) distributions. For early years, the data reveal double PL behavior, while, for more recent time periods, a single PL fits better into the experimental data. Second, we analyze the entropy of the data series statistics over time. Third, we use the Kullback–Leibler divergence to compare the empirical data and multidimensional scaling (MDS) techniques for data analysis and visualization. Entropy-based analysis is adopted to assess complexity, having the advantage of yielding a single parameter to express relationships between the data. The classical and the generalized (fractional) entropy and Kullback–Leibler divergence are used. The generalized measures allow a clear identification of patterns embedded in the data.

Seguro de crédito

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Mestre Armindo Licínio da Silva Macedo

Failure of nitric oxide production by macrophages and decrease in CD4+ T cells in oral paracoccidioidomycosis: possible mechanisms that permit local fungal multiplication

Paracoccidioidomycosis is a chronic granulomatous disease that induces a specific inflammatory and immune response. The participation of nitric oxide (NO), a product of the inducible nitric oxide synthase enzyme (iNOS), as an important fungicidal molecule against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis has been demonstrated. In order to further characterize the Oral Paracoccidioidomycosis (OP), we undertook an immunohistochemical study of iNOS+, CD45RO+, CD3+, CD8+, CD20+, CD68+ cells and mast cells. The samples were distributed in groups according to the number of viable fungi per mm². Our results showed weak immunolabeling for iNOS in the multinucleated giant cells (MNGC) and in most of the mononuclear (MN) cells, and the proportion of iNOS+ MN/MNGC cells in the OP were comparable to Control (clinically healthy oral tissues). Additionally, our analysis revealed a similarity in the number of CD4+ cells between the Control and the OP groups with higher numbers of fungi. These findings suggest that a low expression of iNOS and a decrease in the CD4+ T cells in OP may represent possible mechanisms that permit the local fungal multiplication and maintenance of active oral lesions.

Cirurgias de Derivação do Ventrículo Pulmonar

Cavopulmonary connections have been extensively used in the palliation of complex forms of congenital heart disease requiring some form of right heart bypass. We examine the mid term outcomes of pulmonary ventricle bypass operations in a single institution and performed by the same surgical team. POPULATION: Between March 1999 and April 2006, 62 patients underwent pulmonary ventricle bypass operations: bidirectional cavopulmonary anastomosis (Glenn procedure), total cavopulmonary connections (Fontan procedure) and one and a half ventricle correction in two cases. Age at operation averaged three years (range: 0.42-25 years) for the Glenn procedure and seven years (range: 3-14 years) for the Fontan procedure. There were 36 male patients (58%) and 26 female patients (42%). The most common indication for surgery was the single ventricle defect, present in 66% of patients. Associated lesions included: transposition of the great arteries in 16 patients (35.6%), bilateral superior vena cava in four patients (8.9%), situs ambigus in five patients (11%), situs inversus in another patient (2.2%), Ebstein disease in one patient (2.2) and coronary fistula in another patient (2.2%). Sub-aortic stenosis was present in one patient (2.2%). Palliative surgery was performed in all, but three patients (5%), before the Fontan procedure. RESULTS: Thirty two patients underwent bidirectional cavopulmonary anastomosis and thirty patients underwent cavopulmonary connections, total or 2nd stage. Mean cardiopulmonary bypass times were 50.6+/-21.9 minutes for the Glenn procedure and 88.5+/-26.3 minutes for the Fontan procedure. There was no intra-operative mortality, but two patients (3.2% (died in the first month after surgery; one due to failure of the Glenn circuit and sepsis and the other due to a low cardiac output syndrome and multi-organ dysfunction. Mean ventilation time was 5.2+/-1.7 hours for the Glenn operation and 6.2+/-3.2 hours for the Fontan operation. The mean length of stay in ICU was 3.4+/-2.8 days for patients undergoing the Glenn operation and 4.6+/-3.1 days for patients undergoing the Fontan operation and the mean length of hospital stay was 10.6+/-5.8 days for the Glenn operation and 19.1+/-12.6 days for the Fontan operation respectively. The mean follow up time was 4+/-2.1 years (minimum 0 years and maximum seven years), most patients being in NYHA class I. Epicardiac pacemakers were implanted in three patients due to arrhythmias. Two re-operations (6.7%) were needed, both in the same patient, after the Fontan procedure, this patient eventually died a few years after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The immediate and mid term outcomes of pulmonary ventricle bypass operations can have excellent results. From our point of view there has been an improvement, namely in the use of the extracardiac conduit technique in the 2nd stage of the Fontan operation.

Estudo da resistência de juntas adesivas em L entre alumínio e material compósito

As ligações adesivas são frequentemente utilizadas na fabricação de estruturas complexas que não poderiam ou não seriam tão fáceis de ser fabricadas numa só peça, a fim de proporcionar uma união estrutural que, teoricamente, deve ser pelo menos tão resistente como o material de base. As juntas adesivas têm vindo a substituir métodos como a soldadura, e ligações parafusadas e rebitadas, devido à facilidade de fabricação, menor custo, facilidade em unir materiais diferentes, melhor resistência, entre outras características. Os materiais compósitos reforçados com fibra de carbono são amplamente utilizados em muitas indústrias, tais como de construção de barcos, automóvel e aeronáutica, sendo usados em estruturas que requerem elevada resistência e rigidez específicas, o que reduz o peso dos componentes, mantendo a resistência e rigidez necessárias para suportar as diversas cargas aplicadas. Embora estes métodos de fabricação reduzam ao máximo as ligações através de técnicas de fabrico avançadas, estas ainda são necessárias devido ao tamanho dos componentes, limitações de projecto tecnológicas e logísticas. Em muitas estruturas, a combinação de compósitos com metais tais como alumínio ou titânio traz vantagens de projecto. Este trabalho tem como objectivo estudar, experimentalmente e por modelos de dano coesivo (MDC), juntas adesivas em L entre componentes de alumínio e compósito de carbono epóxido quando solicitados a forças de arrancamento, considerando diferentes configurações de junta e adesivos de ductilidade distinta. Os parâmetros geométricos abordados são a espessura do aderente de alumínio (tP2) e comprimento de sobreposição (LO). A análise numérica permitiu o estudo da distribuição das tensões, evolução do dano, resistência e modos de rotura. Os testes experimentais validam os resultados numéricos e fornecem mecanismos de projecto para juntas em L. Foi mostrado que a geometria do aderente em L (alumínio) e o tipo de adesivo têm uma influência directa na resistência de junta.

Towards realistic core-failure-resilient scheduling and analysis

Presented at IEEE Real-Time Systems Symposium (RTSS 2015). 1 to 4, Dec, 2015. San Antonio, U.S.A..