Predicting hurricane evacuation decisions: When, how many, and how far

Traffic from major hurricane evacuations is known to cause severe gridlocks on evacuation routes. Better prediction of the expected amount of evacuation traffic is needed to improve the decision-making process for the required evacuation routes and possible deployment of special traffic operations, such as contraflow. The objective of this dissertation is to develop prediction models to predict the number of daily trips and the evacuation distance during a hurricane evacuation. ^ Two data sets from the surveys of the evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Ivan were used in the models' development. The data sets included detailed information on the evacuees, including their evacuation days, evacuation distance, distance to the hurricane location, and their associated socioeconomic characteristics, including gender, age, race, household size, rental status, income, and education level. ^ Three prediction models were developed. The evacuation trip and rate models were developed using logistic regression. Together, they were used to predict the number of daily trips generated before hurricane landfall. These daily predictions allowed for more detailed planning over the traditional models, which predicted the total number of trips generated from an entire evacuation. A third model developed attempted to predict the evacuation distance using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), which was able to account for the spatial variations found among the different evacuation areas, in terms of impacts from the model predictors. All three models were developed using the survey data set from Hurricane Katrina and then evaluated using the survey data set from Hurricane Ivan. ^ All of the models developed provided logical results. The logistic models showed that larger households with people under age six were more likely to evacuate than smaller households. The GWR-based evacuation distance model showed that the household with children under age six, income, and proximity of household to hurricane path, all had an impact on the evacuation distances. While the models were found to provide logical results, it was recognized that they were calibrated and evaluated with relatively limited survey data. The models can be refined with additional data from future hurricane surveys, including additional variables, such as the time of day of the evacuation. ^

A View of Faculty Library Use and Perception From an Organizational Culture Lens

This study investigated faculty library demand from an organizational culture perspective at one college where annual requests for library instruction are received from a mere six percent of faculty. Analysis of survey data revealed a statistically significant difference in academic discipline assignment of library research, with the English-Humanities faculty group far exceeding all other faculty groups including the Social Sciences.

The Indigenous in Plurinational Bolivia: Perceptions of Indigenous People in Bolivia Before & During the Morales Government

Indigenous people in Bolivia have historically been excluded from the social and political life of their country, where socioeconomic differences are highly correlated with ethnic identities. However, after a serious political crisis, in 2005 an indigenous leader was elected President in an unprecedented election, and the country has since faced aggressive social and political transformations. Using survey data that ranges from 1998 to 2010, this paper shows some relevant changes in the perceptions and attitudes of indigenous people towards the democratic regime, its political institutions, and other citizens. The trends shown suggest that the average relationship of indigenous citizens with the estate and its institutions has improved both in relative and in absolute terms. However, levels of political tolerance among indigenous Bolivians do not seem to have increased at the same rate as those of non-indigenous Bolivians.

Not getting by: Poverty management and homelessness in Miami

Urban inequality has emerged as one of the dominant themes of modern life and globalization. More than three million people experienced homelessness in the United States last year; in Miami-Dade, more than 15,000 individuals were homeless. Surviving extreme poverty, and exiting or avoiding homelessness, involves negotiating a complex mix of public and private assistance. However, a range of factors influence what types of help are available and how they can be accessed. Frequently, larger social structures determine which resource are available, leaving many choices entirely out of the individual's control. For single men, who are ineligible for many benefits, homelessness can be difficult to avoid and even harder to exit. My study seeks to better understand how adult, minority men living in extreme poverty in Miami-Dade negotiate their daily survival. Specific research questions address: Do black and Hispanic men who are homeless or at risk of homelessness have different personal characteristics and different experiences in avoiding or exiting homelessness? How does Miami's response to extreme poverty/homelessness, including availability of public benefits and public and private service organizations, either maximize or constrain the choices available to this population? And, what is the actual experience of single, adult men who are homeless or at risk of homelessness, in negotiating their daily survival? A mixed methods approach combines quantitative survey data from 7,605 homeless men, with qualitative data from 54 semi-structured interviews incorporating the visual ethnography techniques of Photo Elicitation Interviewing. Results show the differences experienced by black and Hispanic men who are poor and homeless in Miami. Findings also highlight how the community's official and unofficial responses to homelessness intersect with the actual experiences of the persons targeted by the policies and programs, challenging preconceived notions regarding the lives of persons living in extreme poverty. It adds to the existing body of literature by focusing on the urban Miami context, emphasizing disparities amongst racial and ethnic groups. Findings are intended to provide an empirically grounded thesis that humanizes the subjects and illuminates their personal experiences, helping to inform public policy around the needs of extremely poor populations.

Gender differences in the influence of protective factors, risk factors, and health risk behaviors on HIV risk behaviors among youth in South Florida

Adolescents engage in a range of risk behaviors during their transition from childhood to adulthood. Identifying and understanding interpersonal and socio-environmental factors that may influence risk-taking is imperative in order to meet the Healthy People 2020 goals of reducing the incidence of unintended pregnancies, HIV, and other sexually transmitted infections among youth. The purpose of this study was to investigate gender differences in the predictors of HIV risk behaviors among South Florida youth. More specifically, this study examined how protective factors, risk factors, and health risk behaviors, derived from a guiding framework using the Theory of Problem Behavior and Theory of Gender and Power, were associated with HIV risk behavior. A secondary analysis of 2009 Youth Risk Behavior Survey data sets from Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach school districts tested hypotheses for factors associated with HIV risk behaviors. The sample consisted of 5,869 high school students (mean age 16.1 years), with 69% identifying as Black or Hispanic. Logistic regression analyses revealed gender differences in the predictors of HIV risk behavior. An increase in the health risk behaviors was related to an increase in the odds that a student would engage in HIV risk behavior. An increase in risk factors was also found to significantly predict an increase in the odds of HIV risk behavior, but only in females. Also, the probability of participation in HIV risk behavior increased with grade level. Post-hoc analyses identified recent sexual activity (past 3 months) as the strongest predictor of condom nonuse and having four or more sexual partners for both genders. The strongest predictors of having sex under the influence of drugs/alcohol were alcohol use in both genders, marijuana use in females, and physical fighting in males. Gender differences in the predictors of unprotected sex, multiple sexual partners, and having sex under the influence were also found. Additional studies are warranted to understand the gender differences in predictors of HIV risk behavior among youth in order to better inform prevention programming and policy, as well as meet the national Healthy People 2020 goals.

Norm-based comparison of SF -12 physical and mental health scale scores for a sample of employees of Broward County

In the new health paradigm, the connotation of health has extended beyond the measures of morbidity and mortality to include wellness and quality of life. Comprehensive assessments of health go beyond traditional biological indicators to include measures of physical and mental health status, social role-functioning, and general health perceptions. To meet these challenges, tools for assessment and outcome evaluation are being designed to collect information about functioning and well-being from the individual's point of view.^ The purpose of this study was to profile the physical and mental health status of a sample of county government employees against U.S. population norms. A second purpose of the study was to determine if significant relationships existed between respondent characteristics and personal health practices, lifestyle and other health how the tools and methods used in this investigation can be used to guide program development and facilitate monitoring of health promotion initiatives.^ The SF-12 Health Survey (Ware, Kosinski, & Keller, 1995), a validated measure of health status, was administered to a convenience sample of 450 employees attending one of nine health fairs at an urban worksite. The instrument has been utilized nationally which enabled a comparative analysis of findings of this study with national results.^ Results from this study demonstrated that several respondent characteristics and personal health practices were associated with a greater percentage of physical and/or mental scale scores that were significantly "worse" or significantly "better" than the general population. Respondent characteristics that were significantly related to the SF-12 physical and/or mental health scale scores were gender, age, education, ethnicity, and income status. Personal health practices that were significantly related to SF-12 physical and/or mental scale scores were frequency of vigorous exercise, presence of chronic illness, being at one's prescribed height and weight, eating breakfast, smoking and drinking status. This study provides an illustration of the methods used to analyze and interpret SF-12 Health Survey data, using norm-based interpretation guidelines which are useful for purposes of program development and collecting information on health at the community level. ^

Cultural perceptions of space and place in the South Florida *environment

Public opinion polls in the United States reveal that a great majority of Americans are aware and show concern about ecological issues and the need to preserve natural areas. In South Florida, natural resources have been subjected to enormous strain as the pressure to accommodate a growing population has led to rapid development. Suburbs have been built on areas that were once natural wetlands and farmlands, and the impact today shows a landscape where natural places have all but disappeared. This dissertation examines the intersection between the perceptions that individuals living in the South Florida region have with respect to the natural environment and local ecological problems with where their relationship to nature takes place. ^ The research is based upon both quantitative and qualitative data. The principal methodology used in this research is the ethnographic method, which employed the data gathering techniques of in-depth interviewing and participant observation. The objective of the qualitative portion of the study was to determine how people perceive and relate to their immediate environment. The quantitative portion of the study employed telephone survey data from the FIU/Florida Poll 2000. Data collected through this survey provided the basis to statistically test responses to the research questions. ^ The findings show that people in South Florida have a general idea of the relationship between the human population and the environment but very little knowledge of how they individually affect each other. The experience of private places and public spaces in everyday life permits people to compartmentalize cultural values and understandings of the natural world in separate cognitive schemas. The appreciation of the natural world has almost no connection to their personal sense of obligation to preserve the environment. That obligation is only felt in their home space even though the South Florida environment overall struggles desperately with water shortages, land encroachment, and a rapidly expanding human population whose activities continuously aggravate an already delicate natural balance. ^

Individuals with mental disabilities: perceptions of work limitations

This research investigates the perceptions that individuals with mental illnesses have about the employment experience as a whole. Survey data from 72 respondents with mental disabilities were used to identify areas of perceived work limitations. Comparisons regarding employee work performance were made between eleven individuals with mental disabilities and their supervisors. Functional limitations identified by respondents with mental disabilities and the characteristic symptoms set forth in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders were compared. Overall findings showed that individuals with mental disabilities in this study had problems in the areas of judgment, initiative, interacting and rapport with co-workers and supervisors, frustration tolerance and coping with job stress, and adapting to changes at work. Comparison of identified work task difficulties with diagnostic criteria indicate active symptomatology to have an effect on job performance. Recommendations regarding occupational therapy assessment approaches and roles to facilitate ADA implementation are presented.

The Electoral Geography of the Slovak Republic: A Comparison of the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Parliamentary Elections

In what can rightly be said to be one of the most dramatic geopolitical shifts in modern times, the collapse of communist regimes in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union brought about dramatic changes in the entire region. As a consequence, wide ranging political, economic, and social transformations have occurred in almost all of these countries since 1989. The Slovak Republic, as a newly democratic country, went through the establishment of the electoral and party systems that are the central mechanisms to the formation of almost all modern democratic governments. The primary research purpose of this dissertation was to describe and explain regional variations in party support during Slovakia’s ten years of democratic transformation. A secondary purpose was to relate these spatial variations to the evolution of political parties in the post-independence period in light of the literature on transitional electoral systems. Research questions were analyzed using both aggregate and survey data. Specifically, the study utilized electoral data from 1994, 1998, and 2002 Slovak parliamentary elections and socio-economic data of the population within Slovak regions which were eventually correlated with the voting results by party in the 79 Slovak districts. The results of this study demonstrate that there is a tendency among voters in certain regions to provide continuous support to the same political parties/movements over time. In addition, the socio-economic characteristics of the Slovak population (gender, age, education, religion, nationality, unemployment, work force distribution, wages, urban-rural variable, and population density) in different regions tend to influence voting preferences in the parliamentary elections. Finally, there is an evident correlation between party preference and the party’s position on integration into European Union, as measured by perceived attitudes regarding the benefits of EU membership.

Diet Self-efficacy and Physical Self-concept of College Students at Risk for Eating Disorders

Background: Both eating disorders and body image dissatisfaction affect a high proportion of college students. Self-esteem and self-efficacy may be protective factors for eating disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate diet self-efficacy, the confidence to maintain or lose weight, and its association with physical selfconcept using data from an online survey of health literacy, body image, and eating disorders. Study Population and Methods: This cross-sectional study collected online survey data from college students within the United States. The inclusion criteria allowed for 1612 college students, ages 17-35 years (597 males, 1015 females) belonging to the following racial/ethnic categories: Black (187); White, non-Hispanic (244), Hispanic (1035), and other (146). Specifically, the study aimed to examine (a) whether and to what degree diet self-efficacy and physical self-concept were associated with risk of eating disorders; (b) the interaction of gender by ethnicity on diet self-efficacy, physical self-concept and risk of eating disorders; and, (c) the relationship of diet self-efficacy with physical self-description and body mass index (BMI) in college students. Results:Low diet self-efficacy was associated with a lower score on physical self-concept (B = −0.52 [−0.90, −0.15], P = 0.007). Males had a higher physical self-concept as compared to females (B = 14.0 [8.2, 19.8], P Conclusion: College students in this study who had a poor body image were less confident with diet control. Poorer body image and low diet selfefficacy were associated with higher BMI. These findings suggest lifestyle management interventions may be of value to improve physical self-concept and lower risk of eating disorders for college students.

Labor turnover : its causes, consequences, and control strategy in five selected restaurants in the Miami area

The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the basic causes of food service employee turnover in five selected restaurants in the Miami area. The withdrawal behavior in this study is treated in terms of controllable turnover, for the purpose of management, learning more about what action to take to solve this problem which has eaten into the fabric of the hospitality industry. The aim is to find out from the food service employees and management view of work for the purpose of identifying the variables which cause an employee to voluntarily leave a job. The objective is therefore, to analyze and describe the problem of labor turnover in these selected restaurants. Such description must precede efforts to arrive at solutions to the problem if these efforts are ever to be more than haphazard and superficial. Sigmund Freud once stated: "The true beginning of scientific activity consists in describing phenomena and only then in proceeding to group, classify and correlate them."1 The nature of the study is basically descriptive survey. Data is collected by the use of management questionnaire, food service employee questionnaire and finally employees job description index. The survey consisted of a series of well defined questions with open and closed endings dealing with employee with employee turnover. As Robert Ferber and P. J. Verdoom state in their book titled Research Method in Economics of Business: "Structured questionnaires, by supplying question formulations in very specific terms as well as the different possible answers are easier for the sample members to answer and also serve to reduce the danger of interviewer bias."2 The answers to the prepared questionnaire by sample members were then recorded. The results of the questionnaire responses were then compiled for presentation and analysis. 1 Julian Simon, Basic Research Methods in Social Science. Random House, New York, 1969, p.53. 2 Robert J. Ferber and P.J. Verdoon, Research Methods in Economics and Business, The McMillan Company, 1962, p. 20 9 .

Avaliação de usabilidade em materiais interativos de ensino a distância da UFRN-SEDIS

This study aims to assess the usability of Interactive Materials developed for the courses offered by UFRN SEDIS the modality of distance education (DE), using the techniques of focus group cooperative evaluation and assessment of satisfaction. The Interactive Materials are intended to serve as an avenue where the course content reaches the student in an educational, stimulating and self-instructive enough for the student to engage and find no difficulty in using it so. After the survey data in this context were selected four Interactive Materials ("Introduction to Applied Calculus", "Science, Technology and Society", "studies the Semi-Arid" and "Cultural Geography") that adopt the framework established by UFRN for SEDIS be evaluated for their usability. Initially, a preliminary test was conducted from cooperative assessment with a student interacting with the four learning objects in order to reveal and map the major failures of usability, supporting deeper questions later. The recordings of this preliminary test were analyzed by a focus group composed of two graphic designers and two multimedia designers, and developers responsible for these objects, which helped to analyze the gap between "what was designed" and "as was used "structuring and supplementing the roadmap for cooperative evaluation and assessment of subsequent satisfaction. The cooperative evaluation was applied individually to ten students of undergraduate UFRN that tested each of the four materials. At the end, every student completed a questionnaire assessing satisfaction form adapted Wanted (Questionnaire for User Interaction Satisfaction). The analysis of the data collected in this study revealed positive, negative and notes to be considered to guide the future development of Interactive Materials, in the context of UFRN SEDIS, feedback to the process of design and evaluation with user participation

Aprender e ensinar na escola inclusiva: desafios na construção da identidade de pedagogos

The democratization of Brazilian education and discussion about the educational rights of persons with disabilities in refer to reflection on the conceptions of teaching and learning and the folding of these concepts in practice and in the formation of professional identity of the teacher educator. Thus, the proposed research in this dissertation aimed to describe educational processes developed by educators in classrooms in which they are enrolled students with disabilities a view to considering how these processes affect the construction of their professional identity of the pedagogue. As the methodology used to research is classified as Case Study. This methodological approach enables the analysis of singularities of educational contexts. In this work, the case investigated consisted of the analytical study of the pedagogical practices developed in classrooms where there are students with disabilities and their relation to the establishment of the professional identity of the teacher in a school linked to a non-governmental organization supporting people with disabilities in the city of Natal / RN. The Data were collected through the use of the following instruments: exploratory questionnaires, observation and respective registration in the field diary of research and interviews with educators in different professional cycles proposed by Huberman. The data reveal didactic and pedagogical aspects common in educational processes in the observed classes and differences concerning the specifics of pedagogues in the teaching profession in different moments of their professional careers. The analysis of the conceptions tell us the nuances of meanings constructed on teaching and learning and its interface with the reflection on teaching practice. As to the meaning assigned to be pedagogue research highlights the professional identification related to the meanings of teaching and learning in school. The experiences in the teaching profession according to the survey data point to changes in teachers conceptions about teaching and learning disabled people in the perspective of inclusion. Therefore, the study concludes that the pedagogical practices with students with disabilities the different experiences add up and can transform conceptions of teachers about teaching and learning interfering with constant reflection on practices and the construction of professional identities of pedagogues.

Efeitos do freio magnético sobre a distribuição da rotação estelar

The pioneering work proposed by Skumanich (1972) has shown that the projected mean rotational velocity < v sini > for solar type stars follows a rotation law decreases with the time given by t −1/2 , where t is the stellar age. This relationship is consistent with the theories of the angular momentum loss through the ionized stellar wind, which in turn is coupled to the star through its magnetic field. Several authors (e.g.: Silva et al. 2013 and de Freitas et al. 2014) have analyzed the possible matches between the rotational decay and the profile of the velocity distribution. These authors came to a simple heuristic relationship, but did not build a direct path between the exponent of the rotational decay (j) and the exponent of the distribution of the rotational velocity (q). The whole theoretical scenario has been proposed using an efficient and strong statistical mechanics well known as non-extensive statistical mechanics. The present dissertation proposes effectively to close this issue by elaborating a theoretical way to modify the q-Maxwellians’ distributions into q-Maxwellians with physics links extracted from the theory of magnetic braking. In order to test our distributions we have used the GenevaCapenhagen Survey data with approximately 6000 F and G field stars limited by age. As a result, we obtained that the exponents of the decay law and distribution follow a similar relationship to that proposed by Silva et al. (2013).

Transplantes de córneas no estado do Rio Grande do Norte: aspectos epidemiológicos e clínicos

This study aimed to characterize in a clinical and epidemiological way the patients who are on a waiting list for transplantation and the patients transplanted with corneal tissue in a corneal transplants reference service in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. It is an epidemiological study of a quantitative approach, with cross-sectional, descriptive and analytical cut including all patients on the waiting list for transplantation (population A) and the patients already transplanted with a corneal tissue (population B) in a reference service. In population A, there was a census conducted of patients on the waiting list for corneal transplantation (n=62 patients). In population B, the sample was non-probabilistic and corresponded to all corneal transplants performed in the service in the period from 2010 to 2014 (n=258). This study is approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, in Opinion 876 177 and CAAE 37533014.8.0000.5537. Data were collected in full in the period from January to April 2015, by two instruments built to systematize the necessary data collection. After being coded and tabulated, data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences software, version 20.0. The definition of variables and their distribution patterns were presented as frequencies and measures of central tendency while, for multivariate analysis, the effect of magnitude measures were applied (prevalence ratio) and measures of association (chi-square test or Fisher's exact test) for a 0.05 significance level. The results are shown in two scientific articles coming from the field survey data. It was found that the epidemiological profile of patients on the waiting list (n=62) showed a prevalence of individuals aged over 50 years old, female (54.84%) and residents of the middle region of East Rio Grande do Norte (66.13%). The clinical profile of patients with corneal transplantation (n=258) was characterized by being male (51.16%) with an average age of 49.33 years old and 57.75% were coming from East Rio Grande do Norte. The average time on the waiting list was 172.63 days in elective transplants and 9.03 days in urgent transplants. Keratoconus was the main indicator condition to perform the transplant. For patients on the waiting list, the variable “type of disorder of the cornea” showed statistically significant association with gender and age. For patients with corneal transplants, the variable "type of disorder of the cornea" was associated with the variables gender, age, previous surgery, failure of previous graft, classification of the eye and glaucoma. By characterizing the clinical and epidemiological profile of corneal transplants, it is possible to question the reality, pointing about the care that should be offered and develop targeted interventions to collective and individual needs intrinsic to patients who need this surgery as a treatment option.