Moral Behaviour, Altruism and Environmental Policy

Free‐riding is often associated with self‐interested behaviour. However if there is a global mixed pollutant, free‐riding will arise if individuals calculate that their emissions are negligible relative to the total, so total emissions and hence any damage that they and others suffer will be unaffected by whatever consumption choice they make. In this context consumer behaviour and the optimal environmental tax are independent of the degree of altruism. For behaviour to change, individuals need to make their decisions in a different way. We propose a new theory of moral behaviour whereby individuals recognise that they will be worse off by not acting in their own self‐interest, and balance this cost off against the hypothetical moral value of adopting a Kantian form of behaviour, that is by calculating the consequences of their action by asking what would happen if everyone else acted in the same way as they did. We show that: (a) if individuals behave this way, then altruism matters and the greater the degree of altruism the more individuals cut back their consumption of a ’dirty’ good; (b) nevertheless the optimal environmental tax is exactly the same as that emerging from classical analysis where individuals act in self‐interested fashion.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Spanish pension system: population aging and immigration policy

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029

The Monetary policy rules and the inflation process in open emerging

This paper has three objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authorities of 12 new EU members. Using estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that this setting was not always consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not only driven by backward persistency but also held a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of PC is used for this purpose. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allowed decreasing the inflation rate and anchored its volatility.

Partial Knowledge Restrictions on theTwo-Stage Threshold Model of Choice

In the context of the two-stage threshold model of decision making, with the agent’s choices determined by the interaction Of three “structural variables,” we study the restrictions on behavior that arise when one or more variables are xogenously known. Our results supply necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency with the model for all possible states of partial Knowledge, and for both single- and multivalued choice functions.

Stochastic Complementarity

Classical definitions of complementarity are based on cross price elasticities, and so they do not apply, for example, when goods are free. This context includes many relevant cases such as online newspapers and public attractions. We look for a complementarity notion that does not rely on price variation and that is: behavioural (based only on observable choice data); and model-free (valid whether the agent is rational or not). We uncover a conflict between properties that complementarity should intuitively possess. We discuss three ways out of the impossibility.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

Multiple Objectives in Monetary Policy: A de Facto Analysis for ‘Advanced’ Countries

A statistical methodology is developed by which realised outcomes can be used to identify, for calendar years between 1974 and 2012, when policy makers in ‘advanced’ economies have successfully pursued single objectives of different kinds, or multiple objectives. A simple criterion is then used to distinguish between multiple objectives pure and simple and multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint. The overall and individual country results which this methodology produces seem broadly plausible. Unconditional and conditional analyses of the inflation and growth associated with different types of objectives reveal that multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint are associated with roughly as good economic performance as the single objective of inflation. A proposal is then made as to how the remit of an inflation-targeting central bank could be adjusted to allow it to pursue other objectives in extremis without losing the credibility effects associated with inflation targeting.

Global Warming and Fat Tailed-uncertainty: Rethinking the Timing and Intensity of Climate Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme natural events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

From Bretton Woods to inflation targeting: financial change and monetary policy evolution in Europe

Different ‘monetary architectures’ are distinguished, as a background to a discussion of the change in developed country monetary policy frameworks from fixed exchange rates under the Bretton Woods international monetary system to, ultimately, formal or informal inflation targeting. The introduction and experience of monetary targets in the 1970s is considered, followed by an analysis of the changes in countries’ monetary architectures, with particular reference to money and bond markets and to France and Italy, in the 1980s. Exchange rate targeting in Europe in the 1980s and 1990s is examined, followed by the changes in central bank independence in the 1990s. This leads to a discussion of the introduction of inflation targeting, and the issues raised for inflation targeting by the financial crisis of the late 2000s.

Monetary policy strategies, financial institutions and financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa: an overview

Three polar types of monetary architecture are identified together with the institutional and market infrastructure required for each type and the kinds of monetary policy feasible in each case: a ‘basic’ architecture where there is little or no financial system as such but an elementary central bank which is able to fix the exchange rate, as a substitute for a proper monetary policy; a ‘modern’ monetary architecture with developed banks, financial markets and central bank where policy choices include types of inflation targeting; and an ‘intermediate’ monetary architecture where less market-based monetary policies involving less discretion are feasible. A range of data is used to locate the various MENA countries with respect to these polar types. Five countries (Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) are identified as those with the least developed monetary architecture, while Bahrain and Jordan are identified as the group at the other end of the spectrum, reaching beyond the intermediate polar type in some dimensions but not others. The countries in between vary on different dimensions but all lie between basic and intermediate architectures. The key general findings are that the MENA countries are both less differentiated and less ‘developed’ than might have been expected. The paper ends by calling for research on the costs and benefits of different types of monetary architecture.

Computing Markov-Perfect Optimal Policies in Business-Cycle Models

Time-inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler-equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a scal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, while lacking the ability to commit, we show that the solutions obtained using value function iteration and generalized Euler equations are somewhat more accurate than that obtained using parameterized shadow prices. Among these three methods, we show that value function iteration can be applied easily, even to environments that include a risk-sensitive scal authority and/or inequality constraints on government spending. We show that the risk-sensitive scal authority lowers government spending and income-taxation, reducing the disincentive households face to accumulate wealth.

Policy initiatives and firms’ access to external finance: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies

This paper analyses the impact of policy initiatives co-ordinated by Asian national governments on firms' access to external finance, using a unique firm-level database of eight Asian countries- Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand over the period of 1996-2012. Using a difference-indifferences approach and controlling for firm-level and macroeconomic factors, the results show a significant impact of policy on firms' access to external finance. After splitting firms into constrained and unconstrained, using several criteria, the results document that unconstrained firms benefited significantly in obtaining external finance, compared to their constrained counterparts. Finally, we show that the increase in access to external finance after the policy initiative helped firms to raise their investment spending, especially for unconstrained firms.

Optimisation of antiretroviral therapy : pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic approaches

Les progrès de la thérapie antirétrovirale ont transformé l'infection par le VIH d'une condition inévitablement fatale à une maladie chronique. En dépit de ce succès, l'échec thérapeutique et la toxicité médicamenteuse restent fréquents. Une réponse inadéquate au traitement est clairement multifactorielle et une individualisation de la posologie des médicaments qui se baserait sur les facteurs démographiques et génétiques des patients et sur les taux sanguins totaux, libres et/ou cellulaires des médicaments pourrait améliorer à la fois l'efficacité et la tolérance de la thérapie, cette dernière étant certainement un enjeu majeur pour un traitement qui se prend à vie.L'objectif global de cette thèse était de mieux comprendre les facteurs pharmacocinétiques (PK) et pharmacogénétiques (PG) influençant l'exposition aux médicaments antirétroviraux (ARVs) nous offrant ainsi une base rationnelle pour l'optimisation du traitement antiviral et pour l'ajustement posologique des médicaments chez les patients VIH-positifs. Une thérapie antirétrovirale adaptée au patient est susceptible d'augmenter la probabilité d'efficacité et de tolérance à ce traitement, permettant ainsi une meilleure compliance à long terme, et réduisant le risque d'émergence de résistance et d'échec thérapeutique.A cet effet, des méthodes de quantification des concentrations plasmatiques totales, libres et cellulaires des ARVs ainsi que de certains de leurs métabolites ont été développées et validées en utilisant la chromatographie liquide coupée à la spectrométrie de masse en tandem. Ces méthodes ont été appliquées pour la surveillance des taux d'ARVs dans diverses populations de patients HIV-positifs. Une étude clinique a été initiée dans le cadre de l'étude VIH Suisse de cohorte mère-enfant afin de déterminer si la grossesse influence la cinétique des ARVs. Les concentrations totales et libres du lopînavir, de l'atazanavir et de la névirapine ont été déterminées chez les femmes enceintes suivies pendant leur grossesse, et celles-ci ont été trouvées non influencées de manière cliniquement significative par la grossesse. Un ajustement posologique de ces ARVs n'est donc pas nécessaire chez les femmes enceintes. Lors d'une petite étude chez des patients HIV- positifs expérimentés, la corrélation entre l'exposition cellulaire et plasmatique des nouveaux ARVs, notamment le raltégravir, a été déterminée. Une bonne corrélation a été obtenue entre taux plasmatiques et cellulaires de raltégravir, suggérant que la surveillance des taux totaux est un substitut satisfaisant. Cependant, une importante variabilité inter¬patient a été observée dans les ratios d'accumulation cellulaire du raltégravir, ce qui devrait encourager des investigations supplémentaires chez les patients en échec sous ce traitement. L'efficacité du suivi thérapeutique des médicaments (TDM) pour l'adaptation des taux d'efavirenz chez des patients avec des concentrations au-dessus de la cible thérapeutique recommandée a été évaluée lors d'une étude prospective. L'adaptation des doses d'efavirenz basée sur le TDM s'est montrée efficace et sûre, soutenant l'utilisation du TDM chez les patients avec concentrations hors cible thérapeutique. L'impact des polymorphismes génétiques des cytochromes P450 (CYP) 2B6, 2A6 et 3A4/5 sur la pharmacocinétique de l'efavirenz et de ces métabolites a été étudié : un modèle de PK de population intégrant les covariats génétiques et démographiques a été construit. Les variations génétiques fonctionnelles dans les voies de métabolisation principales (CYP2B6) et accessoires {CYP2A6et 3A4/S) de l'efavirenz ont un impact sur sa disposition, et peuvent mener à des expositions extrêmes au médicament. Un? ajustement des doses guidé par le TDM est donc recommandé chez ces patients, en accord avec les polymorphismes génétiques.Ainsi, nous avons démonté qu'en utilisant une approche globale tenant compte à la fois des facteurs PK et PG influençant l'exposition aux ARVs chez les patients infectés, il est possible, si nécessaire, d'individualiser la thérapie antirétrovirale dans des situations diverses. L'optimisation du traitement antirétroviral contribue vraisemblablement à une meilleure efficacité thérapeutique à iong terme tout en réduisant la survenue d'effets indésirables.Résumé grand publicOptimisation de la thérapie antirétrovirale: approches pharmacocinétiques et pharmacogénétiquesLes progrès effectués dans le traitement de l'infection par le virus de llmmunodéficienoe humaine acquise (VIH) ont permis de transformer une affection mortelle en une maladie chronique traitable avec des médicaments de plus en plus efficaces. Malgré ce succès, un certain nombre de patients ne répondent pas de façon optimale à leur traitement etyou souffrent d'effets indésirables médicamenteux entraînant de fréquentes modifications dans leur thérapie. Il a été possible de mettre en évidence que l'efficacité d'un traitement antirétroviral est dans la plupart des cas corrélée aux concentrations de médicaments mesurées dans le sang des patients. Cependant, le virus se réplique dans la cellule, et seule la fraction des médicaments non liée aux protéines du plasma sanguin peut entrer dans la cellule et exercer l'activité antirétrovirale au niveau cellulaire. Il existe par ailleurs une importante variabilité des concentrations sanguines de médicament chez des patients prenant pourtant la même dose de médicament. Cette variabilité peut être due à des facteurs démographiques et/ou génétiques susceptibles d'influencer la réponse au traitement antirétroviral.Cette thèse a eu pour objectif de mieux comprendre les facteurs pharmacologiques et génétiques influençant l'efficacité et ta toxicité des médicaments antirétroviraux, dans le but d'individualiser la thérapie antivirale et d'améliorer le suivi des patients HIV-positifs.A cet effet, des méthodes de dosage très sensibles ont été développées pour permettre la quantification des médicaments antirétroviraux dans le sang et les cellules. Ces méthodes analytiques ont été appliquées dans le cadre de diverses études cliniques réalisées avec des patients. Une des études cliniques a recherché s'il y avait un impact des changements physiologiques liés à la grossesse sur les concentrations des médicaments antirétroviraux. Nous avons ainsi pu démontrer que la grossesse n'influençait pas de façon cliniquement significative le devenir des médicaments antirétroviraux chez les femmes enceintes HIV- positives. La posologie de médicaments ne devrait donc pas être modifiée dans cette population de patientes. Par ailleurs, d'autres études ont portés sur les variations génétiques des patients influençant l'activité enzymatique des protéines impliquées dans le métabolisme des médicaments antirétroviraux. Nous avons également étudié l'utilité d'une surveillance des concentrations de médicament (suivi thérapeutique) dans le sang des patients pour l'individualisation des traitements antiviraux. Il a été possible de mettre en évidence des relations significatives entre l'exposition aux médicaments antirétroviraux et l'existence chez les patients de certaines variations génétiques. Nos analyses ont également permis d'étudier les relations entre les concentrations dans le sang des patients et les taux mesurés dans les cellules où le virus HIV se réplique. De plus, la mesure des taux sanguins de médicaments antirétroviraux et leur interprétation a permis d'ajuster la posologie de médicaments chez les patients de façon efficace et sûre.Ainsi, la complémentarité des connaissances pharmacologiques, génétiques et virales s'inscrit dans l'optique d'une stratégie globale de prise en charge du patient et vise à l'individualisation de la thérapie antirétrovirale en fonction des caractéristiques propres de chaque individu. Cette approche contribue ainsi à l'optimisation du traitement antirétroviral dans la perspective d'un succès du traitement à long terme tout en réduisant la probabilité des effets indésirables rencontrés. - The improvement in antirétroviral therapy has transformed HIV infection from an inevitably fatal condition to a chronic, manageable disease. However, treatment failure and drug toxicity are frequent. Inadequate response to treatment is clearly multifactorial and, therefore, dosage individualisation based on demographic factors, genetic markers and measurement of total, free and/or cellular drug level may increase both drug efficacy and tolerability. Drug tolerability is certainly a major issue for a treatment that must be taken indefinitely.The global objective of this thesis aimed at increasing our current understanding of pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacogenetic (PG) factors influencing the exposition to antirétroviral drugs (ARVs) in HIV-positive patients. In turn, this should provide us with a rational basis for antiviral treatment optimisation and drug dosage adjustment in HIV- positive patients. Patient's tailored antirétroviral regimen is likely to enhance treatment effectiveness and tolerability, enabling a better compliance over time, and hence reducing the probability of emergence of viral resistance and treatment failure.To that endeavour, analytical methods for the measurement of total plasma, free and cellular concentrations of ARVs and some of their metabolites have been developed and validated using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. These assays have been applied for the monitoring of ARVs levels in various populations of HIV- positive patients. A clinical study has been initiated within the frame of the Mother and Child Swiss HIV Cohort Study to determine whether pregnancy influences the exposition to ARVs. Free and total plasma concentrations of lopinavir, atazanavir and nevirapine have been determined in pregnant women followed during the course of pregnancy, and were found not influenced to a clinically significant extent by pregnancy. Dosage adjustment for these drugs is therefore not required in pregnant women. In a study in treatment- experienced HIV-positive patients, the correlation between cellular and total plasma exposure to new antirétroviral drugs, notably the HIV integrase inhibitor raltegravir, has been determined. A good correlation was obtained between total and cellular levels of raltegravir, suggesting that monitoring of total levels are a satisfactory. However, significant inter-patient variability was observed in raltegravir cell accumulation which should prompt further investigations in patients failing under an integrase inhibitor-based regimen. The effectiveness of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) to guide efavirenz dose reduction in patients having concentrations above the recommended therapeutic range was evaluated in a prospective study. TDM-guided dosage adjustment of efavirenz was found feasible and safe, supporting the use of TDM in patients with efavirenz concentrations above therapeutic target. The impact of genetic polymorphisms of cytochromes P450 (CYP) 2B6, 2A6 and 3A4/5 on the PK of efavirenz and its metabolites was studied: a population PK model was built integrating both genetic and demographic covariates. Functional genetic variations in main (CYP2B6) and accessory (2A6, 3A4/5) metabolic pathways of efavirenz have an impact on efavirenz disposition, and may lead to extreme drug exposures. Dosage adjustment guided by TDM is thus required in those patients, according to the pharmacogenetic polymorphism.Thus, we have demonstrated, using a comprehensive approach taking into account both PK and PG factors influencing ARVs exposure in HIV-infected patients, the feasibility of individualising antirétroviral therapy in various situations. Antiviral treatment optimisation is likely to increase long-term treatment success while reducing the occurrence of adverse drug reactions.