Space-time description of dengue epidemic in Cruzeiro, SP, in 2006 and 2011

Objective: to identify patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of cases of dengue fever occurring in the city of Cruzeiro, state of Sao Paulo (SP).Methods: an ecological and exploratory study was undertaken using spatial analysis tools and data from dengue cases obtained on the SinanNet. The analysis was carried out by area, using the IBGE census sector as a unit. The months of March to June 2006 and 2011 were assessed, revealing progress of the disease. TerraView 3.3.1 was used to calculate the Global Moran's I, month to month, and the Kernel estimator.Results: in the year 2006, 691 cases of dengue fever (rate of 864.2 cases/100,000 inhabitants) were georeferenced; and the Moran's I and p-values were significant in the months of April and May (TM = 0.28; p = 0.01; I-M = 0.20; p = 0.01) with higher densities in the central, north, northeast and south regions. In the year 2011, 654 cases of dengue fever (rate of 886.8 cases/100,000 inhabitants) were georeferenced; and the Moran's I and p-values were significant in the months of April and May (I, = 0.28; p = 0.01; I-M = 0.16; p = 0.05) with densities in the same regions as 2006. The Global Moran's I is a global measure of spatial autocorrelation, which indicates the degree of spatial association in the set of information from the product in relation to the average. The I varies between -1 and +1 and can be attributed to a level of significance (p-value). The positive value points to a positive or direct spatial autocorrelation.Conclusion: we were able to identify patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue cases occurring in the city of Cruzeiro, SP, and locate the census sectors where the outbreak began and how it evolved.

Variabilidade temporal e espacial da precipitação incidente sobre a unidade de gerenciamento de recursos hídricos Sorocaba e Médio Tietê e anomalias

Pós-graduação em Ciências Ambientais - Sorocaba

Estimating the extent of spatial association of Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers in Ireland

Mycobacterium bovis infects the wildlife species badgers Meles meles who are linked with the spread of the associated disease tuberculosis (TB) in cattle. Control of livestock infections depends in part on the spatial and social structure of the wildlife host. Here we describe spatial association of M. bovis infection in a badger population using data from the first year of the Four Area Project in Ireland. Using second-order intensity functions, we show there is strong evidence of clustering of TB cases in each the four areas, i.e. a global tendency for infected cases to occur near other infected cases. Using estimated intensity functions, we identify locations where particular strains of TB cluster. Generalized linear geostatistical models are used to assess the practical range at which spatial correlation occurs and is found to exceed 6 in all areas. The study is of relevance concerning the scale of localized badger culling in the control of the disease in cattle.

Cetaceans of Southeast Alaska: Distribution and Seasonal Occurrence

Aim To assess the distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends of cetaceans. Location The study area included all major inland waters of Southeast Alaska. Methods Between 1991 and 2007, cetacean surveys were conducted by observers who kept a constant watch when the vessel was underway and recorded all cetaceans encountered. For each species, we examined distributional patterns, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends. Analysis of variance (anova F) was used to test for differences in group sizes between multiple means, and Student’s t-test was used to detect differences between pairwise means. Cetacean seasonal occurrence and annual trends were investigated using a generalized linear model framework. Results Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) were seen throughout the region, with numbers lowest in spring and highest in the fall. Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) and minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) distributions were more restricted than that reported for humpback whales, and the low number of sightings precluded evaluating seasonal trends. Three killer whale (Orcinus orca) eco-types were documented with distributions occurring throughout inland waters. Seasonal patterns were not detected or could not be evaluated for resident and offshore killer whales, respectively; however, the transient eco-type was more abundant in the summer. Dall’s porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli) were distributed throughout the region, with more sightings in spring and summer than in fall. Harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution was clumped, with concentrations occurring in the Icy Strait/Glacier Bay and Wrangell areas and with no evidence of seasonality. Pacific white-sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens) were observed only occasionally, with more sightings in the spring. For most species, group size varied on both an annual and seasonal basis. Main conclusions Seven cetacean species occupy the inland waters of Southeast Alaska, with distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends varying by species. Future studies that compare spatial and temporal patterns with other features (e.g. oceanography, prey resources) may help in identifying the key factors that support the high density and biodiversity of cetaceans found in this region. An increased understanding of the region’s marine ecology is an essential step towards ensuring the long-term conservation of cetaceans in Southeast Alaska.

Killer Whales and Marine Mammal Trends in The North Pacific—A Re-Examination of Evidence for Sequential Megafauna Collapse and the Prey-Switching Hypothesis

Springer et al. (2003) contend that sequential declines occurred in North Pacific populations of harbor and fur seals, Steller sea lions, and sea otters. They hypothesize that these were due to increased predation by killer whales, when industrial whaling’s removal of large whales as a supposed primary food source precipitated a prey switch. Using a regional approach, we reexamined whale catch data, killer whale predation observations, and the current biomass and trends of potential prey, and found little support for the prey-switching hypothesis. Large whale biomass in the Bering Sea did not decline as much as suggested by Springer et al., and much of the reduction occurred 50–100 yr ago, well before the declines of pinnipeds and sea otters began; thus, the need to switch prey starting in the 1970s is doubtful. With the sole exception that the sea otter decline followed the decline of pinnipeds, the reported declines were not in fact sequential. Given this, it is unlikely that a sequential megafaunal collapse from whales to sea otters occurred. The spatial and temporal patterns of pinniped and sea otter population trends are more complex than Springer et al. suggest, and are often inconsistent with their hypothesis. Populations remained stable or increased in many areas, despite extensive historical whaling and high killer whale abundance. Furthermore, observed killer whale predation has largely involved pinnipeds and small cetaceans; there is little evidence that large whales were ever a major prey item in high latitudes. Small cetaceans (ignored by Springer et al.) were likely abundant throughout the period. Overall, we suggest that the Springer et al. hypothesis represents a misleading and simplistic view of events and trophic relationships within this complex marine ecosystem.

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

Ontogeny of manipulative behavior and nut-cracking in young tufted capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella): a Perception-action perspective

How do capuchin monkeys learn to use stones to crack open nuts? Perception-action theory posits that individuals explore producing varying spatial and force relations among objects and surfaces, thereby learning about affordances of such relations and how to produce them. Such learning supports the discovery of tool use. We present longitudinal developmental data from semifree-ranging tufted capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) to evaluate predictions arising from Perception-action theory linking manipulative development and the onset of tool-using. Percussive actions bringing an object into contact with a surface appeared within the first year of life. Most infants readily struck nuts and other objects against stones or other surfaces from 6 months of age, but percussive actions alone were not sufficient to produce nut-cracking sequences. Placing the nut on the anvil surface and then releasing it, so that it could be struck with a stone, was the last element necessary for nut-cracking to appear in capuchins. Young chimpanzees may face a different challenge in learning to crack nuts: they readily place objects on surfaces and release them, but rarely vigorously strike objects against surfaces or other objects. Thus the challenges facing the two species in developing the same behavior (nut-cracking using a stone hammer and an anvil) may be quite different. Capuchins must inhibit a strong bias to hold nuts so that they can release them; chimpanzees must generate a percussive action rather than a gentle placing action. Generating the right actions may be as challenging as achieving the right sequence of actions in both species. Our analysis suggests a new direction for studies of social influence on young primates learning sequences of actions involving manipulation of objects in relation to surfaces.

Probing the properties of Be star discs with spectroastrometry and NLTE radiative transfer modelling: beta CMi

While the presence of discs around classical Be stars is well established, their origin is still uncertain. To understand what processes result in the creation of these discs and how angular momentum is transported within them, their physical properties must be constrained. This requires comparing high spatial and spectral resolution data with detailed radiative transfer modelling. We present a high spectral resolution, R similar to 80 000, sub-milliarcsecond precision, spectroastrometric study of the circumstellar disc around the Be star beta CMi. The data are confronted with 3D, non-local thermodynamic equilibrium radiative transfer calculations to directly constrain the properties of the disc. Furthermore, we compare the data to disc models featuring two velocity laws: Keplerian, the prediction of the viscous disc model, and angular momentum conserving rotation. It is shown that the observations of beta CMi can only be reproduced using Keplerian rotation. The agreement between the model and the observed spectral energy distribution, polarization and spectroastrometric signature of beta CMi confirms that the discs around Be stars are well modelled as viscous decretion discs.

Prey-capture efficiency between juveniles and adults, feeding habitat and abundance of Wattled Jacana foragers in northern Pantanal, Mato Grosso state, Brazil

The choice of foraging strategies implies an attempt at gaining energy by predators. Supposedly, the difference in employing the "sit and wait" or "active foraging" behavior lays in hunter skills, experience and the kind of prey consumed. With the hypothesis that "active foraging" demands no learning, in this study we compared the prey capture efficiency among Wattled Jacana juveniles and adults, and also present descriptive information about feeding habitat and the abundance variation of foragers throughout the day in the northern Pantanal. Prey capture efficiency did not differ significantly among juveniles and adults, corroborating our initial hypothesis that "active foraging" is an instinctive behavior and demands no experience to be effective. However, future work is necessary to compare the energetic quality of consumed items by juveniles and adults, searching for differences explained by adults' experience. Foraging individuals were found at an average distance of 14 m ranging from 2 to 42 m) from the margin of the sampled swamps, however 64% of the foragers were found closer to the margins. The average depth of foraging sites was 17 cm, ranging from 5 to 40 cm, although no preference for specific classes of depth was found (p > 0,05). Despite the accepted general pattern of birds being more active in the early morning, the largest number of individuals foraging was observed between 11:00 and 12:00 AM, but no significant difference was found in the abundance of foraging individuals among different periods of the day. Factors, which were not analyzed, such as food availability and presence of competitors and predators need to be studied to reveal the main factors of the spatial and temporal distribution of the Wattled Jacana.

Pattern of distribution and environmental influences on the Scienidae community of the Southeastern Brazilian coast

The Sciaenids have among the highest species richness, numerical abundance and biomass of any family of fishes along the Brazilian coast. The aim of this study was to analyze the composition and spatial and temporal distribution of as well as the influence of temperature, salinity and depth on the sciaenid assemblage of Santos Bay. A total of 29,306 individuals belonging to 13 genera and 21 species were captured, between November 2004 and December 2005, with Stellifer rastrifer representing 70.4% of the total composition. Highest abundance and biomass occurred on the east side of the bay, and the highest species richness occurred near the mouth of the Santos Channel, which was also the site with least similarity to the other sites. Highest abundances occurred in April 2005 and lowest in September 2005. Key environmental factors influencing distribution of sciaenids were depth and temperature.

POPULATION BIOLOGY AND DIET OF THE SOUTHERN KINGCROAKER Menticirrhus americanus (LINNAEUS, 1758) (PERCIFORMES: SCIAENIDAE) IN CARAGUATATUBA BAY, SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL

This study evaluated the spatio-temporal distribution, population biology and diet of Menticirrhus americanus in Caraguatatuba Bay. Samples were taken monthly between August 2003 and October 2004, by trawling in two previously selected areas. The northern area is more exposed to wave activity and is influenced by a river, functioning as a small estuary. In contrast, the southern area is relatively sheltered from wave energy and influenced to a lesser degree by smaller rivers. The fishes' length was measured, and the sex and gonadal stage macroscopically identified. The abundance of this species was compared between areas and among months. The diet was identified and quantified. M. americanus occurred in equal proportions in the two study areas, being most abundant in April 2004, followed by December 2003 and January 2004. The population was dominated by small immature individuals. The few individuals in maturation or mature that were captured showed no seasonal pattern of distribution. This species had a varied diet, feeding on worms (nemerteans, sipunculans and echiurans), mollusks (bivalves and cephalopods), polychaetes, crustaceans and fish. The presence of intact nematodes in the intestine suggests that these are parasites. The results demonstrated that M. americanus has a homogeneous spatial and temporal distribution in Caraguatatuba Bay, being uniformly distributed between the south and north areas as well as across the months. This species can be considered a carnivorous predator, showing a preference for consuming benthic sandy-beach species such as glycerids and other polychaetes, crustaceans, and bivalve siphons.

Spatial-Temporal Variation in Orchid Bee Communities (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in Remnants of Arboreal Caatinga in the Chapada Diamantina Region, State of Bahia, Brazil

The spatial and temporal distribution of organisms is a fundamental aspect of biological communities. The present study focused on three remnants of arboreal Caatinga in northeastern Brazil between May, 2009 and April, 2010. A total of 627 euglossine males were captured in traps baited with artificial aromatic compounds. The specimens belonged to 14 species and four genera: Euglossa Latreille, Eulaema Lepeletier, Eufriesea Cockerell, and Exaerete Hoffmannsegg. Eulaema nigrita Lepeletier (41.6), Euglossa carolina Nem,sio (15.3%), Eulaema marcii Nem,sio (13.6%), and Euglossa melanotricha Moure (12.8%) were the most common species sampled. The distribution of collected specimens per fragment was as follows: BraA(0)na (280 ha)-259 individuals belonging to 14 species; Cambui (179 ha)-161 individuals from eight species; and Pindoba (100 ha)-207 individuals represented by seven species. BraA(0)na had the highest diversity (H'aEuro parts per thousand= 1.91) and estimated species richness. The largest fragment was the main source of the observed variation in species richness and abundance, indicating a non-random pattern of spatial distribution. The analysis of environmental factors indicated that seasonal variation in these factors was the principal determinant of species occurrence and abundance.

Spiroplasma in Drosophila melanogaster Populations: Prevalence, Male-Killing, Molecular Identification, and No Association with Wolbachia

Spiroplasma endosymbionts are maternally transmitted bacteria that may kill infected sons resulting in the production of female-biased broods. The prevalence of male killers varies considerably both between and within species. Here, we evaluate the spatial and temporal status of male-killing and non-male-killing Spiroplasma infection in three Brazilian populations of Drosophila melanogaster, nearly a decade after the first occurrence report for this species. The incidence of the male-killing Spiroplasma ranged from close to 0 to 17.7 % (so far the highest estimate for a Drosophila species) with a suggestion of temporal decline in a population. We also found non-male-killing Spiroplasma coexisting in one population at lower prevalence (3-5 %), and we did not detect it in the other two. This may be taken as a suggestion of a spreading advantage conferred by the male-killing strategy. Sequencing two loci, we identified the phylogenetic position of Spiroplasma strains from the three localities, showing that all strains group closely in the poulsonii clade. Due to intensive sampling effort, we were able to test the association between Spiroplasma infections and another widespread endosymbiont, Wolbachia, whose prevalence ranged from 81.8 to 100 %. The prevalence of Wolbachia did not differ between Spiroplasma-infected and uninfected strains in our largest sample nor were the prevalences of the two endosymbionts associated across localities.

Hunting in Ancient and Modern Amazonia: Rethinking Sustainability

We use a recently developed computerized modeling technique to explore the long-term impacts of indigenous Amazonian hunting in the past, present, and future. The model redefines sustainability in spatial and temporal terms, a major advance over the static "sustainability indices" currently used to study hunting in tropical forests. We validate the model's projections against actual field data from two sites in contemporary Amazonia and use the model to assess various management scenarios for the future of Manu National Park in Peru. We then apply the model to two archaeological contexts, show how its results may resolve long-standing enigmas regarding native food taboos and primate biogeography, and reflect on the ancient history and future of indigenous people in the Amazon.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

Introduction: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. Methods: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. Results: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirao Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. Conclusions: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.