Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

Zootherapy goes to town: the use of animal-based remedies in urban areas of NE and N Brazil

This paper examines the therapeutic possibilities offered by animal-based remedies in five Brazilian cities. Information was obtained through semi-structured questionnaires applied to 79 traders of medicinal animals at Sao Luis, Teresina, Joao Pessoa and Campina Grande (Northeastern) and Belem (Northern) Brazil. We recorded the use of 97 animal species as medicines, whose products were recommended for the treatment of 82 illnesses. The most frequently quoted treatments concerned the respiratory system (58 species; 407 use-citations), the osteomuscular system and conjunctive tissue (46 species; 384 use-citations), and the circulatory system (34 species; 124 use-citations). Mammals (27 species), followed by reptiles (24) and fishes (16) represented the bulk of medicinal species. In relation to users, 53% of the interviewees informed that zootherapeuticals resources were sought after by people from all social classes, while 47% stated that low income people were the main buyers. The notable use and commercialization of medicinal animals to alleviate and cure health problems and ailments in cities highlights the resilience of that resource in the folk medicine. Most remedies quoted by interviewees depend on wild-caught animals, including some species under official protection. Among other aspects, the harvesting of threatened species confers zootherapy a role in the discussions about biodiversity conservation in Brazil. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.

Influence of condensed tannins from Brazilian semi-arid legumes on ruminal degradability, microbial colonization and ruminal enzymatic activity in Saanen goats

The present study aimed at determining the influence of condensed tannins present in the Brazilian legume species Mimosa hostilis, Mimosa caesalpinifolia and Bauhinia cheilantha on ruminal degradability, microbial colonization and enzymatic activity. Polyethylene glycol (PEG) was used to reduce the astringency and concentration of soluble condensed tannins. Four ruminally-cannulated Saanen goats (60 +/- 8 kg BW) were fed, in two experimental periods, with a hay diet based on the studied legumes treated or non-treated with PEG. Voluntary intake, microbial colonization, DM, CP, NDF, and ruminal degradability of PEG treated and non-treated forage leaves, as well as pH, ammonia and 1,4 P-endoglucanase activity of the rumen content were evaluated. Astringency and soluble tannin concentration of the studied legumes were reduced by approximately 70% and 50%, respectively, with PEG treatment. Average DM intake was higher for the treated diet (16.76 g DM/kg BW/day against 13.06 g DM/kg BW/day). Percentile values for degradation parameters and for potential and effective degradabilities of DM, CP and NDF were also affected by the tannins, but at different intensities. Electron microscopic observations of ruminally-incubated legume leaves showed a more effective microbial colonization of PEG-treated leaves for all legume species. A decrease in pH and an increase in ammonia concentration and in endoglucanase activity in the ruminal content was also observed for PEG-treated diets at all sampling periods. Condensed tannins of the studied legume species have influenced the adhesion conditions, colonization and enzymatic activity of the microbial ecosystem, and consequently the ruminal degradation of the different dietary fractions. For this reason, the reduction in condensed tannin would be of great importance to improve the nutrition of ruminant feeding of these species. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the reversible photoinduced optical changes in Sb-based glasses

Changes occurring in absorption coefficients when glasses in the SbPO4-WO3 binary system were irradiated by light, at the edge of the absorption band, were measured in real time. These glasses present good thermal and optical properties and photoinduced changes in the absorption coefficients are reversible by heat treatment around 150 degrees C. Subsequent recording/erasing cycles could be made without sample degradation. The sensitivity of the induced optical changes was studied for different wavelengths, light powers and energy of light dose exposures, and for different compositions of the glasses. The changes in the absorption coefficients of the glass samples were accompanied by a color change from yellow to blue, and were also characterized by visible spectroscopy. The color changes occurred through the entire volume of the glass (similar to 2 mm thickness) for the Ar-ion laser lines at the edge of the absorption band. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Photoinduced structural changes in antimony polyphosphate based glasses

A photocontraction effect in amorphous films of the binary glass system 0.20 [Sb(PO3)(3)](n)-0.80 Sb2O3 has been observed after UV irradiation using the 350.7 nm Kr+ ion laser line with 5.0 W/cm(2). Good optical quality films up to 4.0 mum were deposited on silica substrates at room temperature in vacuum by electron beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) and characterized using WDX, XRD, optical absorption, infrared reflectance, profilometry and atomic force microscopy (AFM) techniques. Very stable glasses were prepared by the melt quenching technique and used as evaporation source for the production of films. The photoinduced structural change (PSC) was observed as a variation of about 6% in the film thickness and this effect is accompanied by a photobleaching of the irradiated area with a blue shift of the optical absorption edge. Otherwise this photoinduced change in the film thickness is very sensitive to the variations in the shape and intensity of the laser beam; therefore several possibilities in optical recording arise from these results. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Fluorescent lamp model based on equivalent resistances, considering the effects of dimming operation

This paper presents a new methodology for the determination of fluorescent lamp models based on equivalent resistances. One important feature of the proposed methodology is concerned with the inclusion of the filaments into the model, considering the effects of dimming operation on the equivalent resistances. The classical Series-Resonant Parallel-Loaded Half-Bridge inverter is used as the power stage of the ballast. Moreover, the variation of the inverter's switching frequency is the dimming technique assumed for the analyses. Results obtained with a F32T8 lamp indicate that the accuracy of the model is very satisfactory. Thus, the lamp models obtained with the proposed methodology have the potential to serve as an important tool for ballast designers, considering the necessity for evaluating the lamp/ballast compatibility, according to issues concerned to the operating conditions of the electrodes' filaments.

Antimony oxide based glasses

Glass formation has been investigated in binary systems based on antimony oxide as the main glass former: (100-x)Sb2O3-xWO3, (5 < x < 65), (100 - x)Sb2O3-xSbPO(4), (5 < x < 80) and (100 - x)Sb2O3-x[Sb(PO3)(3)](n), (10 < x < 40). Ternary systems derived from the Sb2O3-WO3 binary glass have also been studied: Sb2O3-WO3-BaF2 Sb2O3-WO3-NaF and Sb2O3-WO3-[Sb(PO3)(3)](n). Glass transition temperature ranges from 280 degreesC to 380 degreesC. It increases as the concentration in tungsten oxide or antimony phosphate increases. Refractive index is larger than 2. Tungsten-containing glasses are yellow in transmission and turn green at the largest WO3 content. Optical transmission and temperatures of glass transition, T-g, onset of the crystallization. T-x, and maximum of crystallization, T-p, have been measured using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). These glasses have potential photonic applications. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic Algorithms (Binary and Real Codes) for the Optimisation of a Fermentation Process for Butanol Production

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parentage testing in alpacas (Vicugna pacos) using semi-automated fluorescent multiplex PCRs with 10 microsatellite markers

The aim of this study was to assess and apply a microsatellite multiplex system for parentage determination in alpacas. An approach for parentage testing based on 10 microsatellites was evaluated in a population of 329 unrelated alpacas from different geographical zones in Peru. All microsatellite markers, which amplified in two multiplex reactions, were highly polymorphic with a mean of 14.5 alleles per locus (six to 28 alleles per locus) and an average expected heterozygosity (H-E) of 0.8185 (range of 0.698-0.946). The total parentage exclusion probability was 0.999456 for excluding a candidate parent from parentage of an arbitrary offspring, given only the genotype of the offspring, and 0.999991 for excluding a candidate parent from parentage of an arbitrary offspring, given the genotype of the offspring and the other parent. In a case test of parentage assignment, the microsatellite panel assigned 38 (from 45 cases) offspring parentage to 10 sires with LOD scores ranging from 2.19 x 10(+13) to 1.34 x 10(+15) and Delta values ranging from 2.80 x 10(+12) to 1.34 x 10(+15) with an estimated pedigree error rate of 15.5%. The performance of this multiplex panel of markers suggests that it will be useful in parentage testing of alpacas.

Particle Competition and Cooperation in Networks for Semi-Supervised Learning with Concept Drift

Concept drift is a problem of increasing importance in machine learning and data mining. Data sets under analysis are no longer only static databases, but also data streams in which concepts and data distributions may not be stable over time. However, most learning algorithms produced so far are based on the assumption that data comes from a fixed distribution, so they are not suitable to handle concept drifts. Moreover, some concept drifts applications requires fast response, which means an algorithm must always be (re) trained with the latest available data. But the process of labeling data is usually expensive and/or time consuming when compared to unlabeled data acquisition, thus only a small fraction of the incoming data may be effectively labeled. Semi-supervised learning methods may help in this scenario, as they use both labeled and unlabeled data in the training process. However, most of them are also based on the assumption that the data is static. Therefore, semi-supervised learning with concept drifts is still an open challenge in machine learning. Recently, a particle competition and cooperation approach was used to realize graph-based semi-supervised learning from static data. In this paper, we extend that approach to handle data streams and concept drift. The result is a passive algorithm using a single classifier, which naturally adapts to concept changes, without any explicit drift detection mechanism. Its built-in mechanisms provide a natural way of learning from new data, gradually forgetting older knowledge as older labeled data items became less influent on the classification of newer data items. Some computer simulation are presented, showing the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Bayesian outlier analysis in binary regression

We propose alternative approaches to analyze residuals in binary regression models based on random effect components. Our preferred model does not depend upon any tuning parameter, being completely automatic. Although the focus is mainly on accommodation of outliers, the proposed methodology is also able to detect them. Our approach consists of evaluating the posterior distribution of random effects included in the linear predictor. The evaluation of the posterior distributions of interest involves cumbersome integration, which is easily dealt with through stochastic simulation methods. We also discuss different specifications of prior distributions for the random effects. The potential of these strategies is compared in a real data set. The main finding is that the inclusion of extra variability accommodates the outliers, improving the adjustment of the model substantially, besides correctly indicating the possible outliers.

A Semi-Continuous Analyzer for the Fluorimetric Determination of Atmospheric Formaldehyde

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effects of thermal annealing on the semi-insulating properties of radio frequency magnetron sputtering-produced germanate thin films

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

SnO2, ZnO and related polycrystalline compound semiconductors: An overview and review on the voltage-dependent resistance (non-ohmic) feature

The present review describes mainly the history of SnO2-based voltage-dependent resistors, discusses the main characteristics of these polycrystalline semiconductor systems and includes a direct comparison with traditional ZnO-based voltage-dependent resistor systems to establish the differences and similarities, giving details of the basic physical principles involved with the non-ohmic properties in both polycrystalline systems. As an overview, the text also undertakes the main difficulties involved in processing SnO2- and ZnO-based non-ohmic systems, with an evaluation of the contribution of the dopants to the electronic properties and to the final microstructure and consequently to the system's non-ohmic behavior. However, since there are at least two review texts regarding ZnO-based systems [Levinson, L. M., and Philipp, H. R. Ceramic Bulletin 1985;64:639; Clarke, D. R. Journal of American Ceramic Society 1999;82:485], the main focus of the present text is dedicated to the SnO2-based varistor systems, although the basic physical principles described in the text are universally useful in the context of dense polycrystalline devices. However, the readers must be careful of how the microstructure heterogeneity and grain-boundary chemistry are capable to interfere in the global electrical response for particular systems. New perspectives for applications, commercialization and degradation studies involving SnO2-based polycrystalline non-ohmic systems are also outlined, including recent technological developments. Finally, at the end of this review a brief section is particularly dedicated to the presentation and discussions about others emerging non-ohmic polycrystalline ceramic devices (particularly based on perovskite ceramics) which must be deeply studied in the years to come, specially because some of these systems present combined high dielectric and non-ohmic properties. From both scientific and technological point of view these perovskite systems are quite interesting. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oriented texture classification based on self-organizing neural network and Hough transform

This paper presents a technique for oriented texture classification which is based on the Hough transform and Kohonen's neural network model. In this technique, oriented texture features are extracted from the Hough space by means of two distinct strategies. While the first operates on a non-uniformly sampled Hough space, the second concentrates on the peaks produced in the Hough space. The described technique gives good results for the classification of oriented textures, a common phenomenon in nature underlying an important class of images. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the new technique in comparison, with an implemented technique based on Gabor filters.