Energy Restriction During Breeding Gilt Development: An Economic Analysis

Swine production has increasingly become a lowmargin business. As costs of production have increased, producers are continuing to increase efficiency in both market pig production and gilt development. Restricting energy during gilt development reduces feeding costs and can enhance some productivity measures, but can also negatively impact other areas of production. Thus, the net economic returns from a restricted energy gilt development program are unclear. This study utilized gilt development and market pig production data for two genetic lines of hogs, LWxLR (a cross between industry Large White and Landrace) and L45X (a Nebraska line selected 23 generations for increased litter size) from Johnson and Miller and Johnson et al., to estimate the returns to finishing market hogs using conventional and restricted energy gilt development programs.

Community Life and Housing in Rural Nebraska: 2005 Nebraska Rural Poll Results

Many rural communities are experiencing population decline. However, rural residents have continued to show a strong attachment to their communities. How do rural Nebraskans feel about their community? Are they satisfied with the services provided? Do they own their home? What is the condition of their home? This report details 2,851 responses to the 2005 Nebraska Rural Poll, the tenth annual effort to understand rural Nebraskans’ perceptions. Respondents were asked a series of questions about their community and housing. Trends for some of these questions are examined by comparing data from the nine previous polls to this year’s results. For all questions, comparisons are made among different respondent subgroups, that is, comparisons by age, occupation, region, etc. Based on these analyses, some key findings emerged: Rural Nebraskans’ views of the change in their community are similar to those expressed last year. This year, 28 percent believe their community has changed for the better, compared to 26 percent last year. And, in 2005, only 20 percent think their community has changed for the worse, compared to 22 percent last year. The proportion of expected movers who plan to leave the state decreased this year. Last year, 56 percent of the persons planning to move from their community expected to leave the state. That proportion decreased to 47 percent this year. Rural Nebraskans living in or near the largest communities are more likely than persons living in or near the smaller communities to say their community has changed for the better. Thirty-nine percent of persons living in or near communities with populations of 10,000 or more believe their community has changed for the better during the past year, but only 15 percent of persons living in or near communities with less than 500 people share this opinion. The community services and amenities that rural Nebraskans are most dissatisfied with include: entertainment, retail shopping and restaurants. At least one-third of rural Nebraskans express dissatisfaction with these three services. They are most satisfied with parks and recreation, library services, basic medical care services, highways and bridges, and education (K - 12). At least one-half of rural Nebraskans are satisfied with the following items in their community: appearance of residential areas (66%), crime control (61%), maintenance of sidewalks and public areas (57%) and noise (54%). Rural Nebraskans generally have positive views about their community. Sixty percent agree that their community is an ideal place to live and 52 percent say their community has good business leaders. Rural Nebraskans have mixed opinions about the future of their community. Fortyfour percent agree that their community’s future looks bright, but 42 percent disagree with this statement. Fourteen percent have no opinion. Rural Nebraskans living in or near the larger communities are more likely than residents of the smaller communities to think their community’s future looks bright. Fifty-nine percent of persons living in or near communities with populations of 10,000 or more agree with this statement, compared to only 25 percent of residents living in or near communities with less than 500 people. Further, 61 percent of the residents of the smallest communities disagree with this statement, compared to only 28 percent of the residents of the largest communities. Over three-quarters of rural Nebraskans disagree that younger residents of their community tend to stay there after completing high school. Seventy-six percent disagree with this statement, 16 percent have no opinion and eight percent agree that younger residents stay after completing high school. When comparing responses by age, younger persons are more likely than older persons to agree that younger residents stay in their community after high school. Sixteen percent of persons age 19 to 29 agree with this statement, compared to only six percent of persons age 50 to 64. Younger persons are more likely than older persons to be planning to move from their community next year. Fifteen percent of persons between the ages of 19 and 29 are planning to move next year, compared to only two percent of persons age 65 and older. An additional 17 percent of the younger respondents indicate they are uncertain if they plan to move. Most rural Nebraskans own their home. Eighty-four percent of rural Nebraskans own their home. Older persons are more likely than younger persons to own their home. Eighty-eight percent of persons over the age of 50 own their home, compared to only 52 percent of persons age 19 to 29. Housing in rural Nebraska has an average age of 50 years. Twenty-four percent of residences were built before 1930. Another 24 percent were built between 1930 and 1959. Twenty-nine percent were built between 1960 and 1979 and the remaining 24 percent were built in 1980 or later. The housing stock in smaller communities is older than the housing located in larger communities. Over one-third (35%) of the residences in communities with less than 1,000 people were built before 1930. Only 12 percent of the homes in communities with populations of 10,000 or more were built in this time period. Most rural Nebraskans appear satisfied with their home. Only 24 percent say the current size of their home does not meet their needs. The same proportion (24%) say their home is in need of major repairs. Thirty-eight percent agree that their home needs a lot of routine maintenance, but 87 percent like the location (neighborhood) of their home. One-third of rural Nebraskans living in or near the smallest communities say their home is in need of major repairs. Only 19 percent of persons living in or near communities with populations of 5,000 or more are facing this problem. Home ownership is very important to most rural Nebraskans. Eighty-two percent believe it is very important to own their home. An additional 12 percent say it is somewhat important and six percent say it is not at all important. However, persons who do not currently own their home do not feel it is important for them to do so. Only 32 percent of renters say it is very important to own their home, compared to 91 percent of home owners. And, 35 percent of renters say it is not at all important to own their home.

System size and energy dependence of near-side dihadron correlations

Two-particle azimuthal (Delta phi) and pseudorapidity (Delta eta) correlations using a trigger particle with large transverse momentum (p(T)) in d+Au, Cu+Cu, and Au+Au collisions at root s(NN) = 62.4 GeV and 200 GeV from the STAR experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider are presented. The near-side correlation is separated into a jet-like component, narrow in both Delta phi and Delta eta, and the ridge, narrow in Delta phi but broad in Delta eta. Both components are studied as a function of collision centrality, and the jet-like correlation is studied as a function of the trigger and associated p(T). The behavior of the jet-like component is remarkably consistent for different collision systems, suggesting it is produced by fragmentation. The width of the jet-like correlation is found to increase with the system size. The ridge, previously observed in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV, is also found in Cu+Cu collisions and in collisions at root s(NN) = 62.4 GeV, but is found to be substantially smaller at root s(NN) = 62.4 GeV than at root s(NN) = 200 GeV for the same average number of participants (< N-part >). Measurements of the ridge are compared to models.

Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important biomes of Brazil. Originally covering approximately 1.5 million of km(2), today this area has been reduced to 12% of its original size. Climate changes may alter the structure and the functioning of this tropical forest. Here we explore how increases in temperature and changes in precipitation distribution could affect dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in coastal Atlantic Forest of the southeast region of Brazil The main conclusion of this article is that the coastal Atlantic Forest has high stocks of carbon and nitrogen above ground, and especially, below ground. An increase in temperature may transform these forests from important carbon sinks to carbon sources by increasing loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution because it is based on limited information. Therefore, more studies are urgently needed to enable us to make more accurate predictions.

Energy and system-size dependence of two- and four-particle nu(2) measurements in heavy-ion collisions at root S-NN=62.4 and 200 GeV and their implications on flow fluctuations and nonflow

We present STAR measurements of azimuthal anisotropy by means of the two- and four-particle cumulants nu(2) (nu(2){2} and nu(2){4}) for Au + Au and Cu + Cu collisions at center-of-mass energies root S-NN = 62.4 and 200 GeV. The difference between nu(2){2}(2) and nu(2){4}(2) is related to nu(2) fluctuations (sigma(nu 2)) and nonflow (delta(2)). We present an upper limit to sigma(nu 2)/nu 2. Following the assumption that eccentricity fluctuations sigma(epsilon) dominate nu(2) fluctuations nu(2)/sigma nu(2) approximate to epsilon/sigma epsilon we deduce the nonflow implied for several models of eccentricity fluctuations that would be required for consistency with nu(2){2} and nu(2){4}. We also present results on the ratio of nu(2) to eccentricity.

Essays in Applied Health Economics: Evidence on Health and Health Care in Italy and UK

This thesis is the result of my experience as a PhD student taking part in the Joint Doctoral Programme at the University of York and the University of Bologna. In my thesis I deal with topics that are of particular interest in Italy and in Great Britain. Chapter 2 focuses on the empirical test of the existence of the relationship between technological profiles and market structure claimed by Sutton’s theory (1991, 1998) in the specific economic framework of hospital care services provided by the Italian National Health Service (NHS). In order to test the empirical predictions by Sutton, we identify the relevant markets for hospital care services in Italy in terms of both product and geographic dimensions. In particular, the Elzinga and Hogarty (1978) approach has been applied to data on patients’ flows across Italian Provinces in order to derive the geographic dimension of each market. Our results provide evidence in favour of the empirical predictions of Sutton. Chapter 3 deals with the patient mobility in the Italian NHS. To analyse the determinants of patient mobility across Local Health Authorities, we estimate gravity equations in multiplicative form using a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method, as proposed by Santos-Silva and Tenreyro (2006). In particular, we focus on the scale effect played by the size of the pool of enrolees. In most of the cases our results are consistent with the predictions of the gravity model. Chapter 4 considers the effects of contractual and working conditions on selfassessed health and psychological well-being (derived from the General Health Questionnaire) using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We consider two branches of the literature. One suggests that “atypical” contractual conditions have a significant impact on health while the other suggests that health is damaged by adverse working conditions. The main objective of our paper is to combine the two branches of the literature to assess the distinct effects of contractual and working conditions on health. The results suggest that both sets of conditions have some influence on health and psychological well-being of employees.

Effetti degli accordi Euro-Mediterrani sul comparto dell'ortofrutta fresca

In 1995, the European Union (EU) Member States and 12 Mediterranean countries launched in Barcelona a liberalization process that aims at establishing a free trade area (to be realized by 2010) and at promoting a sustainable and balanced economic development by the adoption of a new generation of Agreements: the Euro-Mediterranean Agreements (EMA). For the Mediterranean partner countries, the main concern is a better access for their fruit and vegetable exports to the European market. These products represent the main exports of these countries, and the EU is their first trading partner. On the other side, for the EU the main issue is not only the promotion of its products, but also the protection of its fruit and vegetables producers. Moreover, the trade with third countries is the key element of the Common Market Organization of the sector. Fruit and vegetables represent a very sensitive sector since their high seasonality, high perishability, and especially since the production of the Mediterranean countries is often similar to the European Mediterranean’s countries one. In fact, the agreements define preferences at the entrance of the EU market providing limited concessions for each partner, for specific products, limited quantities and calendars. This research tries to analyze the bilateral trade volume for fresh fruit and vegetables in the European and Italian markets in order to assess the effects of Mediterranean liberalization on this sector. Free trade of agricultural products represents a very actual topic in international trade and the Mediterranean countries, recognised as big producers of fruit and vegetables, as big exporters of their crops and actually significantly present on the European market, could be high competitors with the inward production because the outlet could be the same. The goal of this study is to provide some considerations about the competitiveness of mediterranean fruit and vegetables productions after Barcelona Process, in a first step for the European market and then also for the Italian one. The aim is to discuss the influence of the euro-mediterranean agreements on the fruit and vegetables trade between 10 foreign Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, Syria, and Turkey) and 15 EU countries in the period 1995-2007, by means of a gravity model, which is a widespread methodology in international trade analysis. The basic idea of gravity models is that bilateral trade from one country to another (as the dependent variable) can be explained by a set of factors: - factors that capture the potential of a country to export goods and services; - factors that capture the propensity of a country to imports goods and services; - any other forces that either attract or inhibit bilateral trade. This analysis compares only imports’ flows by Europe and by Italy (in volumes) from Mediterranean countries, since the exports’ flows toward those foreign countries are not significant, especially for Italy. The market of fruit and vegetables appears as a high heterogeneous group so it is very difficult to show a synthesis of the analysis performed and the related results. In fact, this sector includes the so called “poor products” (such as potatoes and legumes), and the “rich product”, such as nuts or exotic fruit, and there are a lot of different goods that arouse a dissimilar consumer demand which directly influence the import requirements. Fruit and vegetables sector includes products with extremely different biological cycles, leading to a very unlike seasonality. Moreover, the Mediterranean area appears as a highly heterogeneous bloc, including countries which differ from the others for economic size, production potential, capability to export and for the relationships with the EU. The econometric estimation includes 68 analyses, 34 of which considering the European import and 34 the Italian import and the products are examined in their aggregated form and in their disaggregated level. The analysis obtains a very high R2 coefficient, which means that the methodology is able to assess the import effects on fruit and vegetables associated to the Association Agreements, preferential tariffs, regional integration, and others information involved in the equation. The empirical analysis suggests that fruits and vegetables trade flows are well explained by some parameters: size of the involved countries (especially GDP and population of the Mediterranean countries); distances; prices of imported products; local production for the aggregated products; preferential expressed tariffs like duty free; sub-regional agreements that enforce the export capability. The euro-mediterranean agreements are significant in some of the performed analysis, confirming the slow and gradual evolution of euro- Mediterranean liberalization. The euro-mediterranean liberalization provides opportunities from one side, and imposes a new important challenge from the other side. For the EU the chance is that fruit and vegetables imported from the mediterranean area represent a support for local supply and a possibility to increase the range of products existing on the market. The challenge regards the competition of foreign products with the local ones since the types of productions are similar and markets coincide, especially in the Italian issue. We need to apply a strategy based not on a trade antagonism, but on the realization of a common plane market with the Mediterranean countries. This goal could be achieved enhancing the industrial cooperation in addition to commercial relationships, and increasing investments’ flows in the Mediterranean countries aiming at transforming those countries from potential competitors to trade partners and creating new commercial policies to export towards extra European countries.

Flat roofs renovation: a life cycle approach for environmental impact assessment and economic effectiveness

The high energy consumption caused by the building sector and the continuous growth and ageing of the existing housing stock show the importance of housing renovation to improve the quality of the environment. This research compares the environmental performance of flat roof systems (insulation, roofing membrane and covering layer) using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The aim is to give indications on how to improve the environmental performance of housing. This research uses a reference building located in the Netherlands and considers environmental impacts related to materials, energy consumption for heating and maintenance activities. It indicates impact scores for each material taking into account interconnections between the layers and between the different parts of the life cycle. It compares the environmental and economic performances of PV panels and of different materials and thermal resistance values for the insulation. These comparisons show that PV panels are convenient from an environmental and economic point of view. The same is true for the insulation layer, especially for materials as PIR (polyisocyanurate) and EPS (expanded polystyrene). It shows that energy consumption for heating causes a larger share of impact scores than production of the materials and maintenance activities. The insulation also causes larger impact scores comparing to roofing membrane and covering layer. The results show which materials are preferable for flat roof renovation and what causes the largest shares of impact. This gives indication to the roofers and to other stakeholders about how to reduce the environmental impact of the existing housing stock.

Strumenti finanziari partecipativi e "nuovi" canali di finanziamento delle societa' per azioni

Il lavoro affronta il tema degli strumenti finanziari partecipativi e non partecipativi che possono essere emessi dalle società per azioni, alla luce della disciplina introdotta dalla riforma del diritto societario. Lo studio è diretto a fornire un inquadramento sistematico di queste modalità di finanziamento rispetto alla dicotomia azioni-obbligazioni, anche sotto il profilo contabile, per poi individuare le conseguenti implicazioni in termini di disciplina applicabile. Affrontando il dibattito dottrinale sulla collocazione complessiva degli strumenti ibridi rispetto alle forme di finanziamento tradizionali, si sposa l’opinione secondo cui tutti gli strumenti finanziari non possono essere ricompresi in una categoria unitaria, ma occorre mantenere distinti gli strumenti finanziari partecipativi indicati dall’art. 2346, comma 6, c.c., dagli altri strumenti finanziari ex art. 2411, comma 3, c.c., riconoscendo nei primi delle modalità di raccolta assimilabili al capitale di rischio e nei secondi delle forme di provvista di capitale di debito. Il connotato distintivo tra strumenti finanziari partecipativi e non partecipativi viene individuato non nell’attribuzione di diritti amministrativi – che possono anche non essere assegnati ai titolari di strumenti di cui all’art. 2346, comma 6 – bensì nell’assenza o nella presenza di un obbligo di rimborso dell’apporto fornito all’impresa. Il lavoro esamina inoltre vari profili di disciplina di entrambe le categorie di strumenti, concentrandosi prevalentemente sui diritti patrimoniali ad essi attribuibili, tra cui la partecipazione agli utili e alle perdite e i diritti in sede di liquidazione. Infine si esaminano le previsioni recentemente introdotte dal d.l. n. 83/2012 in tema di titoli obbligazionari, al fine di valutarne l’impatto sull’impianto complessivo della disciplina vigente. In particolare, viene data attenzione alle nuove disposizioni relative alle obbligazioni subordinate e/o partecipative che possono essere emesse dalle società non quotate, mettendo in evidenza le criticità dal punto di vista sistematico in tema di possibile partecipazione agli utili degli obbligazionisti.

Dal Bes ad Urbes: I piani di performance e di trasparenza nelle citta'

Obiettivo del lavoro è quello di legare tra di loro due aspetti che storicamente sono sempre stati scollegati. Il primo è il lungo dibattito sul tema “oltre il PIL”, che prosegue ininterrottamente da circa mezzo secolo. Il secondo riguarda l’utilizzo dei sistemi di misurazione e valutazione della performance nel settore pubblico italiano. Si illustra l’evoluzione del dibattito sul PIL facendo un excursus storico del pensiero critico che si è sviluppato nel corso di circa cinquanta anni analizzando le ragioni assunte dagli studiosi per confutare l’utilizzo del PIL quale misura universale del benessere. Cogliendo questa suggestione l’Istat, in collaborazione con il CNEL, ha avviato un progetto per individuare nuovi indicatori da affiancare al PIL, in grado di misurare il livello non solo della crescita economica, ma anche del benessere sociale e sostenibile, con l’analisi degli indicatori riferiti a 12 domini di benessere individuati. Al progetto Istat-CNEL si è affiancato il progetto UrBES, promosso dall’Istat e dal Coordinamento dei sindaci metropolitani dell’ANCI, che hanno costituito una rete di città metropolitane per sperimentare la misurazione e il confronto sulla base di indicatori di benessere urbano equo e sostenibile, facendo proprio un progetto del Comune di Bologna e di Laboratorio Urbano (Centro di documentazione, ricerca e proposta sulle città), che ha sottoposto a differenti target un questionario on line, i cui risultati, con riferimento alle risposte fornite alle domande aperte, sono stati elaborati attraverso l’utilizzo di Taltac, un software per l’analisi dei testi, al fine di individuare i “profili” dei rispondenti, associando i risultati dell’elaborazione alle variabili strutturali del questionario. Nell’ultima parte i servizi e progetti erogati dal comune di Bologna sono stati associati alle dimensioni UrBES, per valutare l’impatto delle politiche pubbliche sulla qualità della vita e sul benessere dei cittadini, indicando le criticità legate alla mancanza di dati adeguati.

Sustainable development in Darjeeling Hills, India : ecological and socio-economic aspects for small-scale farmers with supportive observations from Kanagawa, Japan

Organic farming means a holistic application of agricultural land-use, hence, this study aimed to assess ecological and socio-economic aspects that show benefits of the strategy and achievements of organic farming in comparison to conventional farming in Darjeeling District, State of West Bengal, India and Kanagawa Prefecture/Kanto in Central Japan. The objective of this study has been empirically analysed on aspects of crop diversity, yield, income and sales prices in the two study regions, where 50 households each, i.e. in total 100 households were interviewed at farm-level. Therefore, the small sample size does not necessarily reflect the broad-scale of the use and benefit of organic farming in both regions. The problems faced in mountainous regions in terms of agriculture and livelihoods for small-scale farmers, which are most affected and dependant on their immediate environment, such as low yields, income and illegal felling leading to soil erosion and landslides, are analyzed. Furthermore, factors such as climate, soils, vegetation and relief equally play an important role for these farmers, in terms of land-use. To supplement and improve the income of farmers, local NGOs have introduced organic farming and high value organic cash crops such as ginger, tea, orange and cardamom and small income generating means (floriculture, apiary etc.). For non-certified and certified organic products the volume is given for India, while for Japan only certified organic production figures are given, as there are several definitions for organic in Japan. Hence, prior to the implementation of organic laws and standards, even reduced chemical input was sold as non-certified organic. Furthermore, the distribution and certification system of both countries are explained in detail, including interviews with distribution companies and cooperatives. Supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are helpful and practical suggestions for organic farmers in Darjeeling District. Most of these are simple and applicable soil management measures, natural insect repelling applications and describe the direct marketing system practiced in Japan. The former two include compost, intercropping, Effective Microorganisms (EM), clover, rice husk charcoal and wood vinegar. More supportive observations have been made at organic and biodynamic tea estates in Darjeeling District, which use citronella, neem, marigold, leguminous and soil binding plants for soil management and natural insect control. Due to the close ties between farmers and consumers in Japan, certification is often neither necessary nor wanted by the producers. They have built a confidence relationship with their customers; thus, such measures are simply not required. Another option is group certification, instead of the expensive individual certification. The former aims at lower costs for farmers who have formed a cooperative or a farmers' group. Consumer awareness for organic goods is another crucial aspect to help improve the situation of organic farmers. Awareness is slightly more advanced in Kanto than in Darjeeling District, as it is improved due to the close (sales) ties between farmers and consumers in Kanto. Interviews conducted with several such cooperatives and companies underline the positive system of TEIKEI. The introduction of organic farming in the study regions has shown positive effects for those involved, even though it still in its beginning stages in Darjeeling District. This study was only partly able to assess the benefits of organic agriculture at its present level for Darjeeling District, while more positively for the organic farmers of Kanto. The organic farming practice needs further improvement, encouragement and monitoring for the Darjeeling District farmers by locals, consumers, NGOs and politicians. The supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are a small step in this direction, showing how, simple soil improvements and thus, yield and income increases, as well as direct sales options can enhance the livelihood of organic farmers without destroying their environment and natural resources.

The Effect Of Conformity On Economic Decision Making

Inspired by research in the field of behavioral economics as well as social psychology, this study aimed to explore if conformity plays a role in the occurrence of herd behavior in the financial market. Participants received one of nine different versions of a survey either online or on paper. They answered questions related to riskiness when making decisions, dependency on others when making decisions, and investment preferences among other questions. In experimental conditions, participants were told the majority of investors, either sixty percent or eighty percent, invested in a certain stock or won a game. It was predicted that individuals would conform to the group behavior in both experimental conditions with the highest level of conformity in the high pressure to conform condition. Results of experiments revealed that when the overwhelming majority of other investors behaved a certain way (80%), participants were more likely to behave that same way. Results of the third experiment supported previous research stating that emotion affects economic decision-making and facilitates herd behavior.

Estimating the Size of the Homeless Population in Budapest

Since 1990, the issue of homelessness has become increasingly important in Hungary as a result of economic and structural changes. Various suggestions as to how the problem may be solved have always been preceded by the question "How many homeless people are there?" and there is still no official consensus as to the answer. Counting of the homeless is particularly difficult because of the bias in the initial sampling frame due to two factors that characterise this population: the definition of homelessness, and its 'hidden' nature. David aimed to estimate the size of the homeless population of Budapest by using two non-standard sampling methods: snowball sampling and the capture-recapture method. Her calculations are based on three data sets: one snowball data set and two independent list data sets. These estimators, supported by other statistical data, suggest that in 1999 there were about 8000-10000 homeless people in Budapest.

Osteoarthritis: rational approach to treating the individual

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of joint disease and the leading cause of pain and physical disability in older people. Risk factors for incidence and progression of osteoarthritis vary considerably according to the type of joint. Disease assessment is difficult and the relationship between the radiographic severity of joint damage and the incidence and severity of pain is only modest. Psychosocial and socio-economic factors play an important role. This chapter will discuss four main guiding principles to the management of OA: (1) to avoid overtreating people with mild symptoms; (2) to attempt to avoid doing more harm than good ('primum non nocere'); (3) to base patient management on the severity of pain, disability and distress, and not on the severity of joint damage or radiographic change; and (4) to start with advice about simple measures that patients can take to help themselves, and only progress to interventions that require supervision or specialist knowledge if simple measures fail. Effect sizes derived from meta-analyses of large randomized trials in OA are only small to moderate for most therapeutic interventions, but they are still valuable for patients and clinically relevant for physicians. Joint replacement may be the only option with a large effect size, but is only appropriate for the relatively small number of people with OA who have advanced disease and severe symptoms. The key to successful management involves patient and health professionals working together to develop optimal treatment strategies for the individual.

Development of an optimization model for biofuel facility size and location and a simulation model for design of a biofuel supply chain

To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, the United States (U.S.) is pursuing several options to create biofuels from renewable woody biomass (hereafter referred to as “biomass”). Because of the distributed nature of biomass feedstock, the cost and complexity of biomass recovery operations has significant challenges that hinder increased biomass utilization for energy production. To facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization and tapping unused forest residues, it is proposed to develop biofuel supply chain models based on optimization and simulation approaches. The biofuel supply chain is structured around four components: biofuel facility locations and sizes, biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation, and storage. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach is proposed as a first step for selecting potential facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass based on a set of evaluation criteria, such as accessibility to biomass, railway/road transportation network, water body and workforce. The development of optimization and simulation models is also proposed. The results of the models will be used to determine (1) the number, location, and size of the biofuel facilities, and (2) the amounts of biomass to be transported between the harvesting areas and the biofuel facilities over a 20-year timeframe. The multi-criteria objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the delivered feedstock cost, energy consumption, and GHG emissions simultaneously. Finally, a series of sensitivity analyses will be conducted to identify the sensitivity of the decisions, such as the optimal site selected for the biofuel facility, to changes in influential parameters, such as biomass availability and transportation fuel price. Intellectual Merit The proposed research will facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization in the renewable biofuel industry. The GIS-based facility location analysis considers a series of factors which have not been considered simultaneously in previous research. Location analysis is critical to the financial success of producing biofuel. The modeling of woody biomass supply chains using both optimization and simulation, combing with the GIS-based approach as a precursor, have not been done to date. The optimization and simulation models can help to ensure the economic and environmental viability and sustainability of the entire biofuel supply chain at both the strategic design level and the operational planning level. Broader Impacts The proposed models for biorefineries can be applied to other types of manufacturing or processing operations using biomass. This is because the biomass feedstock supply chain is similar, if not the same, for biorefineries, biomass fired or co-fired power plants, or torrefaction/pelletization operations. Additionally, the research results of this research will continue to be disseminated internationally through publications in journals, such as Biomass and Bioenergy, and Renewable Energy, and presentations at conferences, such as the 2011 Industrial Engineering Research Conference. For example, part of the research work related to biofuel facility identification has been published: Zhang, Johnson and Sutherland [2011] (see Appendix A). There will also be opportunities for the Michigan Tech campus community to learn about the research through the Sustainable Future Institute.