The determinants of default risk in Brazil

We formulated a general unrestricted model of the Brazilian Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) spreads, a proxy for the country`s default risk. Employing algorithms that perform automated model selection, we found that macroeconomic fundamentals, such as current account deficit ratio to gross domestic product, public deficit ratio to gross domestic product and imports over foreign exchange reserves, can explain a great part of the variation in EMBI+ spreads. There is also robust evidence of systematic contagion from Argentina and Mexico and that the variance of the spread also affects its mean.

Event-related potentials in the emotional colour naming stroop task and the emotional counting stroop task

This study compared emotional Stroop interference in the emotional colour naming Stroop and the emotional counting Stroop by measuring reaction times and event-related potentials to positive, negative and neutral words. Twenty participants had ERPs recorded at 61 sites while performing both types of emotional Stroop tasks as well as congruent and incongruent conflict conditions. All participants rated stimulus emotionality retrospectively. A robust reaction time Stroop effect was observed in response latency for the traditional ‘‘conflict’’ conditions (congruent vs. incongruent) for the counting Stroop though not the colour naming Stroop task. There was also no evidence of emotional interference for either of the tasks; however, there was trend for positive interference in the colour naming Stroop. The P5 was identified as the event-related potential associated with emotional processing. For the P5 component, significant emotionality effects were evident in the emotional colour naming Stroop for latency (542 ms). There was a significant interaction between valence and hemisphere. The latency of the P5 in the right hemisphere was later for the positive words than negative and neutral. Comparable effects of valence were evident for the emotional counting Stroop for amplitude but not latency.

ANNA: A new prediction method for bioassessment programs

1. Cluster analysis of reference sites with similar biota is the initial step in creating River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) and similar river bioassessment models such as Australian River Assessment System (AUSRIVAS). This paper describes and tests an alternative prediction method, Assessment by Nearest Neighbour Analysis (ANNA), based on the same philosophy as RIVPACS and AUSRIVAS but without the grouping step that some people view as artificial. 2. The steps in creating ANNA models are: (i) weighting the predictor variables using a multivariate approach analogous to principal axis correlations, (ii) calculating the weighted Euclidian distance from a test site to the reference sites based on the environmental predictors, (iii) predicting the faunal composition based on the nearest reference sites and (iv) calculating an observed/expected (O/E) analogous to RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS. 3. The paper compares AUSRIVAS and ANNA models on 17 datasets representing a variety of habitats and seasons. First, it examines each model's regressions for Observed versus Expected number of taxa, including the r(2), intercept and slope. Second, the two models' assessments of 79 test sites in New Zealand are compared. Third, the models are compared on test and presumed reference sites along a known trace metal gradient. Fourth, ANNA models are evaluated for western Australia, a geographically distinct region of Australia. The comparisons demonstrate that ANNA and AUSRIVAS are generally equivalent in performance, although ANNA turns out to be potentially more robust for the O versus E regressions and is potentially more accurate on the trace metal gradient sites. 4. The ANNA method is recommended for use in bioassessment of rivers, at least for corroborating the results of the well established AUSRIVAS- and RIVPACS-type models, if not to replace them.

Molecular phylogenetics of Chaetodon and the Chaetodontidae (Teleostei : Perciformes) with reference to morphology

Butterflyfish are colourful, pan-tropical coastal fish that are important and distinctive members of coral reef communities. A successful systematic scheme and a robust phylogeny is considered essential in understanding further their biogeography and ecology, although recent cladistic treatments of butterflyfish phylogeny, based on soft tissue and bone morphology and coded at the generic and subgeneric levels, differ in character coding and subsequently tree topology. This study provides an independent test of the morphologically based hypotheses, using molecular systematic data from two partial mitochondrial gene fragments, cytochrome b (cytb) and small subunit rRNA (rrnS), for 52 ingroup chaetodontids and seven pomacanthids used to root the molecular trees. Individual gene trees were largely compatible and a combined molecular phylogeny, inferred from Bayesian analysis, was used to test alternative hypotheses suggested by morphological analyses. The tree was also used to map the latest morphological matrix in order to evaluate potential synapomorphies for various nodes defining butterflyfish interrelationships. A clade comprised of Chelmon and Coradion was sister group to other chaetodontids. Heniochus and Hemitaurichthys were each resolved as monophyletic groups, and as sister taxa Of the taxa sampled, Prognothodes was resolved as the sister genus to Chaeotodon. Of the ten Chaetodon subgenera sampled, all were monophyletic but their interrelationships differed significantly from that inferred from morphological characters. Lepidochaetodon was the most basal subgenus followed by Exornator and the remaining subgenera. Molecular data support the sister group relationship between Corallochaetodon and Citharoedus suggested by morphology, but major differences occur among the remaining more derived taxa. Chaetodon trifascialis and C. oligacanthus were resolved as sister taxa adding weight to the inclusion of the latter in C. Megaprotodon. Of those pairs of taxa known to hybridize and sampled with molecular data, all were closely related phylogenetically, except those hybrids known to occur in the Rabdophorus subgenus. Two base changes separated C. pelewensis from C. paucifasciatus which have been regarded previously as a single species. Cytb provided greater resolution than rrnS and will likely provide additional resolution with greater taxon sampling.

Activation of visual areas during the attentional blink

When two targets are presented in rapid succession, identification of the first target is nearly perfect while identification of the second is severely impaired at shorter inter-target lags, and then gradually improves as lag increases. This second-target deficit is known as the attentional blink (AB). Numerous studies have implicated competition for access to higher-order processing mechanisms as the primary cause of the AB. However, relatively few studies have directly examined how the AB modulates activity in specific brain areas. To this end, we used fMRI to measure activation in the occipital and parietal cortices (including V1, V2, and area MT) during an AB task. Participants were presented with an initial target of oriented line segments embedded in a central stream of letter distractors. This central target was followed 100 - 700 ms later by a peripheral ‘X’ presented at one of four locations along with three ‘+’ distractors. All peripheral items were presented in the centre of a small field of moving dots. Participants made non-speeded judgments about line-segment orientation and the location of the second target at the end of a trial and to ignore all other stimuli. The results showed a robust AB characterised by a linear improvement in second-target accuracy as lag increased. This pattern of behavioural results was mirrored by changes in activation patterns across a number of visual areas indicating robust modulation of brain activity by the AB.

L-Allylglycine dissociates the neural substrates of fear in the periaqueductal gray of rats

The dorsal (dPAG) and ventral (vPAG) regions of the periaqueductal gray are well known to contain the neural substrates of fear and anxiety. Chemical or electrical stimulation of the dPAG induces freezing, followed by a robust behavioral reaction that has been considered an animal model of panic attack. In contrast, the vPAG is part of a neural system, in which immobility is the usual response to its stimulation. The defense reaction induced by the stimulation of either region is accompanied by anti nociception. Although GABAergic mechanisms are known to exert tonic inhibitory control on the neural substrates of fear in the dPAG, the role of these mechanisms in the vPAG is still unclear. The present study examined defensive behaviors and antinociception induced by microinjections of an inhibitor of gamma-aminobutyric acid synthesis, L-allylglycine (L-AG; 1, 3, and 5 mu g/0.2 mu l), into either the dPAG or vPAG of rats subjected to the open field and tail-flick tests. Passive or tense immobility was the predominant behavior after L-AG (1 or 3 mu g) microinjection into the vPAG and dPAG, respectively, which was replaced with intense hyperactivity, including jumps or rearings, after injections of a higher dose (5 mu g/0.2 mu l) into the dPAG or vPAG. Moreover, whereas intra-dPAG injection of 3 mu g L-AG produced intense antinociception, only weak antinociception was induced by intra-vPAG injections of 5 mu g L-AG. These findings suggest that GABA mechanisms are involved in the mediation of antinociception and behavioral inhibition to aversive stimulation of the vPAG and exert powerful control over the neural substrates of fear in the dPAG to prevent a full-blown defense reaction possibly associated with panic disorder. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thoracic aorta calcification detected by electron beam tomography predicts all-cause mortality

Background: The presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent marker of increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality. However, the predictive value of thoracic aorta calcification (TAC), which can be additionally identified without further scanning during assessment of CAC, is unknown. Methods: We followed a cohort of 8401 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 53 +/- 10 years, 69% men) undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and TAC and CAC testing with electron beam computed tomography. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality based on the presence of TAC. Results: During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 124 (1.5%) deaths were observed. Overall survival was 96.9% and 98.9% for those with and without detectable TAC, respectively (p < 0.0001). Compared to those with no TAC, the hazard ratio for mortality in the presence of TAC was 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.65, p < 0.0001) in unadjusted analysis. After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking and family history of premature coronary artery disease, and presence of CAC the relationship remained robust (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.10-2.27, p = 0.015). Likelihood ratio chi(2) statistics demonstrated that the addition of TAC contributed significantly in predicting mortality to traditional risk factors alone (chi(2) = 13.62, p = 0.002) as well as risk factors + CAC (chi(2) = 5.84, p = 0.02) models. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of TAC was associated with all-cause mortality in our study; this relationship was independent of conventional CVD risk factors as well as the presence of CAC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

EEG-based Brain-Computer Interfaces: An Overview of Basic Concepts and Clinical Applications in Neurorehabilitation

Some patients are no longer able to communicate effectively or even interact with the outside world in ways that most of us take for granted. In the most severe cases, tetraplegic or post-stroke patients are literally `locked in` their bodies, unable to exert any motor control after, for example, a spinal cord injury or a brainstem stroke, requiring alternative methods of communication and control. But we suggest that, in the near future, their brains may offer them a way out. Non-invasive electroencephalogram (EEG)-based brain-computer interfaces (BCD can be characterized by the technique used to measure brain activity and by the way that different brain signals are translated into commands that control an effector (e.g., controlling a computer cursor for word processing and accessing the internet). This review focuses on the basic concepts of EEG-based BC!, the main advances in communication, motor control restoration and the down-regulation of cortical activity, and the mirror neuron system (MNS) in the context of BCI. The latter appears to be relevant for clinical applications in the coming years, particularly for severely limited patients. Hypothetically, MNS could provide a robust way to map neural activity to behavior, representing the high-level information about goals and intentions of these patients. Non-invasive EEG-based BCIs allow brain-derived communication in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and motor control restoration in patients after spinal cord injury and stroke. Epilepsy and attention deficit and hyperactive disorder patients were able to down-regulate their cortical activity. Given the rapid progression of EEG-based BCI research over the last few years and the swift ascent of computer processing speeds and signal analysis techniques, we suggest that emerging ideas (e.g., MNS in the context of BC!) related to clinical neuro-rehabilitation of severely limited patients will generate viable clinical applications in the near future.

Anthropometric measures in relation to Basal Cell Carcinoma: a longitudinal study

Background: The relationship between anthropometric indices and risk of basal cell carcinoma ( BCC) is largely unknown. We aimed to examine the association between anthropometric measures and development of BCC and to demonstrate whether adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference, and waist/ hip ratio was associated with risk of BCC, independent of sun exposure. Methods: Study participants were participants in a community- based skin cancer prevention trial in Nambour, a town in southeast Queensland ( latitude 26 degrees S). In 1992, height, weight, and waist and hip circumferences were measured for all 1621 participants and weight was remeasured at the end of the trial in 1996. Prevalence proportion ratios were calculated using a log- binomial model to estimate the risk of BCC prior to or prevalent in 1992, while Poisson regression with robust error variances was used to estimate the relative risk of BCC during the follow- up period. Results: At baseline, 94 participants had a current BCC, and 202 had a history of BCC. During the 5- year follow- up period, 179 participants developed one or more new BCCs. We found no significant association between any of the anthropometric measures or indices and risk of BCC after controlling for potential confounding factors including sun exposure. There was a suggestion that short- term weight gain may increase the risk of developing BCC for women only. Conclusion: Adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference and waist/ hip ratio is not significantly associated with occurrence of basal cell carcinomas of the skin.

Nutrition-related habits and associated factors of Brazilian adolescents

To investigate the nutrition-related habits (NRH) of Brazilian adolescents and evaluate the associations with risk factors. Cross-sectional school-based was carried out among high school adolescents aged 14-18 years (n = 1,759) from public and private schools from two cities. The NRH were investigated by the weekly consumption of vegetables, fruit, sweet food and fried food. Risk factors investigated were: city, sex, age, socioeconomic status and nutritional status. In statistics, Poisson regression was used with robust variance adjustment. Data indicated low consumption of fruits and vegetables, 70.0 and 71.0%, respectively, and high consumption of sweets and fried food, 66.7 and 63%, respectively. Boys showed risk of inadequate intake of vegetables [prevalence ratios (PR) 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.16] and fruit (PR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.16). Furthermore, adolescents who live in Maringa had greater likelihood of consuming vegetables and fruit (20 and 25%, respectively). However, they presented risk of inadequate consumption of sweets (PR 1.19, 95% CI 1.11-1.28) for adolescents who live in Presidente Prudente. We concluded that inadequate NRH show high prevalence among adolescents and indicate the need to employ educational strategies that promote the adoption of more healthy habits and behaviors.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Sequential Changes of Longitudinal and Radial Myocardial Deformation Indices in the Healthy Neonate Heart

Background: Significant hemodynamic changes, including preload and afterload modifications, occur during the transition from the fetal to the neonatal environment. The ductus arteriosus closes, pulmonary vascular resistance decreases, and pulmonary blood flow increases. Strain rate (SR) and strain (e) have been proposed as ultrasound indices for quantifying regional wall deformation. This study was designed to determine if these indices can detect variations in regional deformation between early and late neonatal periods. Methods: Data were obtained from 30 healthy neonates (15 male). The initial study was performed at a mean age of 20.1614 hours (exam 1) and the second at 31.962.9 days (exam 2). Apical and parasternal views were used to quantify regional left ventricular (LV) and right ventricular (RV) longitudinal and radial SR and e, and systolic, early, and late diastolic values were calculated from these curves. A paired-samples t test was performed comparing the two groups. Results: Compared with exam 1, LV radial deformation showed significant reductions in peak systolic e in the basal and mid segments (51615% vs 4669%, P < .01). LV longitudinal deformation behaved similarly, showing significant peak systolic e reductions in all measured segments. Systolic SR showed reductions only in the basal and apical segments of the lateral wall and in the mid portion of the inferior wall (-1.9 +/- 0.5 vs -1.7 +/- 0.3 s(-1) and -1.9 +/- 0.4 vs -1.7 +/- 0.2 s(-1), respectively, P = .03). RV longitudinal free and inferior wall systolic SR and e values were significantly higher in exam 2. Conclusions: LV peak systolic e decreases in exam 2 were possibly due to afterload increase and preload decrease. The lower RV initial deformation indices could be attributed to increased afterload caused by physiologic pulmonary hypertension or immature RV contractile properties. SR seemed to be a more robust index than e and less influenced by preload and afterload hemodynamic alteration. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2010;23:294-300.)

Diagnosis, Assessment, and Treatment of Non-Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Pulmonary Hypertension

The 4th World Symposium on Pulmonary Hypertension was the first international meeting to focus not only on pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) but also on the so-called non-PAH forms of pulmonary hypertension (PH). The term ""non-PAH PH"" summarizes those forms of PH that are found in groups 2 to 5 of the current classification of PH, that is, those forms associated with left heart disease, chronic lung disease, recurrent venous thromboembolism, and other diseases. Many of these forms of PH are much more common than PAH, but all of them have been less well studied, especially in terms of medical therapy. The working group on non-PAH PH focused mainly on 4 conditions: chronic obstructive lung disease, interstitial lung disease, chronic thromboembolic PH, and left heart disease. The medical literature regarding the role of PH in these diseases was reviewed, and recommendations regarding diagnosis and treatment of PH in these conditions are provided. Given the lack of robust clinical trials addressing PH in any of these conditions, it is important to conduct further studies to establish the role of medical therapy in non-PAH PH. (J Am Coll Cardiol 2009;54:S85-96) (C) 2009 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Air Pollution and Mortality in Latin America The Role of Education

Background: People with less education in Europe, Asia, and the United States are at higher risk of mortality associated with daily and longer-term air pollution exposure. We examined whether educational level modified associations between mortality and ambient particulate pollution (PM(10)) in Latin America, using several timescales. Methods: The study population included people who died during 1998-2002 in Mexico City, Mexico; Santiago, Chile; and Sao Paulo, Brazil. We fit city-specific robust Poisson regressions to daily deaths for nonexternal-cause mortality, and then stratified by age, sex, and educational attainment among adults older than age 21 years (none, some primary, some secondary, and high school degree or more). Predictor variables included a natural spline for temporal trend, linear PM(10) and apparent temperature at matching lags, and day-of-week indicators. We evaluated PM(10) for lags 0 and I day, and fit an unconstrained distributed lag model for cumulative 6-day effects. Results: The effects of a 10-mu g/m(3) increment in lag 1 PM(10) on all nonextemal-cause adult mortality were for Mexico City 0.39% (95% confidence interval = 0.131/-0.65%); Sao Paulo 1.04% (0.71%-1.38%); and for Santiago 0.61% (0.40%-0.83%. We found cumulative 6-day effects for adult mortality in Santiago (0.86% [0.48%-1.23%]) and Sao Paulo (1.38% [0.85%-1.91%]), but no consistent gradients by educational status. Conclusions: PM(10) had important short- and intermediate-term effects on mortality in these Latin American cities, but associations did not differ consistently by educational level.

Inhibition of motor cortex excitability with 15 Hz transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS)

There remains a lack of solid evidence showing whether transcranial stimulation with weak alternating current (transcranial alternating current stimulation, tACS) can in fact induce significant neurophysiological effects. Previously, a study in which tACS was applied for 2 and 5 min with current density = 0.16-0.25 A/m(2) was unable to show robust effects on cortical excitability. Here we applied tACS at a significantly higher current density (0.80 A/m(2)) for a considerably longer duration (20 min) and were indeed able to demonstrate measurable changes to cortical excitability. Our results show that active 15 Hz tACS of the motor cortex (electrodes placed at C3 and C4) significantly diminished the amplitude of motor evoked potentials and decreased intracortical facilitation (ICF) as compared to baseline and sham stimulation. In addition, we show that our method of sham tACS is a reliable control condition. These results support the notion that AC stimulation with weak currents can induce significant changes in brain excitability; in this case, 15 Hz tACS led to a pattern of inhibition of cortical excitability. We propose that tACS may have a dampening effect on cortical networks and perhaps interfere with the temporal and spatial summation of weak subthreshold electric potentials. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.