859 resultados para robust hedging


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Aims. A model-independent reconstruction of the cosmic expansion rate is essential to a robust analysis of cosmological observations. Our goal is to demonstrate that current data are able to provide reasonable constraints on the behavior of the Hubble parameter with redshift, independently of any cosmological model or underlying gravity theory. Methods. Using type Ia supernova data, we show that it is possible to analytically calculate the Fisher matrix components in a Hubble parameter analysis without assumptions about the energy content of the Universe. We used a principal component analysis to reconstruct the Hubble parameter as a linear combination of the Fisher matrix eigenvectors (principal components). To suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the components, we considered the value of the Hubble parameter at high redshift as a free parameter. We first tested our procedure using a mock sample of type Ia supernova observations, we then applied it to the real data compiled by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) group. Results. In the mock sample analysis, we demonstrate that it is possible to drastically suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the principal components. Applying our procedure to the real data, we show that it allows us to determine the behavior of the Hubble parameter with reasonable uncertainty, without introducing any ad-hoc parameterizations. Beyond that, our reconstruction agrees with completely independent measurements of the Hubble parameter obtained from red-envelope galaxies.

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Mutualistic networks are crucial to the maintenance of ecosystem services. Unfortunately, what we know about seed dispersal networks is based only on bird-fruit interactions. Therefore, we aimed at filling part of this gap by investigating bat-fruit networks. It is known from population studies that: (i) some bat species depend more on fruits than others, and (ii) that some specialized frugivorous bats prefer particular plant genera. We tested whether those preferences affected the structure and robustness of the whole network and the functional roles of species. Nine bat-fruit datasets from the literature were analyzed and all networks showed lower complementary specialization (H(2)' = 0.3760.10, mean 6 SD) and similar nestedness (NODF = 0.5660.12) than pollination networks. All networks were modular (M=0.32 +/- 0.07), and had on average four cohesive subgroups (modules) of tightly connected bats and plants. The composition of those modules followed the genus-genus associations observed at population level (Artibeus-Ficus, Carollia-Piper, and Sturnira-Solanum), although a few of those plant genera were dispersed also by other bats. Bat-fruit networks showed high robustness to simulated cumulative removals of both bats (R = 0.55 +/- 0.10) and plants (R = 0.68 +/- 0.09). Primary frugivores interacted with a larger proportion of the plants available and also occupied more central positions; furthermore, their extinction caused larger changes in network structure. We conclude that bat-fruit networks are highly cohesive and robust mutualistic systems, in which redundancy is high within modules, although modules are complementary to each other. Dietary specialization seems to be an important structuring factor that affects the topology, the guild structure and functional roles in bat-fruit networks.

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Imprinted inactivation of the paternal X chromosome in marsupials is the primordial mechanism of dosage compensation for X-linked genes between females and males in Therians. In Eutherian mammals, X chromosome inactivation (XCI) evolved into a random process in cells from the embryo proper, where either the maternal or paternal X can be inactivated. However, species like mouse and bovine maintained imprinted XCI exclusively in extraembryonic tissues. The existence of imprinted XCI in humans remains controversial, with studies based on the analyses of only one or two X-linked genes in different extraembryonic tissues. Here we readdress this issue in human term placenta by performing a robust analysis of allele-specific expression of 22 X-linked genes, including XIST, using 27 SNPs in transcribed regions. We show that XCI is random in human placenta, and that this organ is arranged in relatively large patches of cells with either maternal or paternal inactive X. In addition, this analysis indicated heterogeneous maintenance of gene silencing along the inactive X, which combined with the extensive mosaicism found in placenta, can explain the lack of agreement among previous studies. Our results illustrate the differences of XCI mechanism between humans and mice, and highlight the importance of addressing the issue of imprinted XCI in other species in order to understand the evolution of dosage compensation in placental mammals.

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Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andren proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions - that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool for analysing the potential effectiveness of management interventions.

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Allometric growth analysis on chelac dimensions vs. carapace length (CL) was employed to estimate average size at the onset of morphometric maturity (= puberty molt) and sexual dimorphism regarding the pair of chelae in Aegla franca. Males attain morphometric maturity (12.15 mm of CL) at a larger size than females (10.93 mm of CL). After the puberty molt, an additional change in the allometry level regarding chelae dimensions was detected in adult males (average CL = 19.00 mm). As a result, two sequential morphotype groups of adult males, herein designated as morphotype I and morphotype II, were recognized according to the state of development of the pair of claws. We postulate that the second change in this allometry level is related to functional maturity in this sex, based on the following observations: 1) temporal variation in the proportion between the two morphotype groups reveals that morphotype II individuals make up most of adult males in the population at the beginning of the seasonal reproductive period of the species, and 2) morphotype II males show a more robust pair of claws as compared to the predecessor morphotype, which might represent an advantageous trait in reproductive competition. Males and females of Aegla franca are heterochelous with handedness preponderance of the left chela. Claw size is a distinct dimorphic trait in this species, being significantly larger in male specimens.

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The peritoneal cavity (PerC) is a singular compartment where many cell populations reside and interact. Despite the widely adopted experimental approach of intraperitoneal (i.p.) inoculation, little is known about the behavior of the different cell populations within the PerC. To evaluate the dynamics of peritoneal macrophage (Mempty set) subsets, namely small peritoneal Mempty set (SPM) and large peritoneal Mempty set (LPM), in response to infectious stimuli, C57BL/6 mice were injected i.p. with zymosan or Trypanosoma cruzi. These conditions resulted in the marked modification of the PerC myelo-monocytic compartment characterized by the disappearance of LPM and the accumulation of SPM and monocytes. In parallel, adherent cells isolated from stimulated PerC displayed reduced staining for beta-galactosidase, a biomarker for senescence. Further, the adherent cells showed increased nitric oxide (NO) and higher frequency of IL-12-producing cells in response to subsequent LPS and IFN-gamma stimulation. Among myelo-monocytic cells, SPM rather than LPM or monocytes, appear to be the central effectors of the activated PerC; they display higher phagocytic activity and are the main source of IL-12. Thus, our data provide a first demonstration of the consequences of the dynamics between peritoneal Mempty set subpopulations by showing that substitution of LPM by a robust SPM and monocytes in response to infectious stimuli greatly improves PerC effector activity.

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Investigations of chaotic particle transport by drift waves propagating in the edge plasma of tokamaks with poloidal zonal flow are described. For large aspect ratio tokamaks, the influence of radial electric field profiles on convective cells and transport barriers, created by the nonlinear interaction between the poloidal flow and resonant waves, is investigated. For equilibria with edge shear flow, particle transport is seen to be reduced when the electric field shear is reversed. The transport reduction is attributed to the robust invariant tori that occur in nontwist Hamiltonian systems. This mechanism is proposed as an explanation for the transport reduction in Tokamak Chauffage Alfven Bresilien [R. M. O. Galvao , Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 43, 1181 (2001)] for discharges with a biased electrode at the plasma edge.

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This work clarifies the relation between network circuit (topology) and behaviour (information transmission and synchronization) in active networks, e.g. neural networks. As an application, we show how one can find network topologies that are able to transmit a large amount of information, possess a large number of communication channels, and are robust under large variations of the network coupling configuration. This theoretical approach is general and does not depend on the particular dynamic of the elements forming the network, since the network topology can be determined by finding a Laplacian matrix (the matrix that describes the connections and the coupling strengths among the elements) whose eigenvalues satisfy some special conditions. To illustrate our ideas and theoretical approaches, we use neural networks of electrically connected chaotic Hindmarsh-Rose neurons.

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Positional information in developing embryos is specified by spatial gradients of transcriptional regulators. One of the classic systems for studying this is the activation of the hunchback (hb) gene in early fruit fly (Drosophila) segmentation by the maternally-derived gradient of the Bicoid (Bcd) protein. Gene regulation is subject to intrinsic noise which can produce variable expression. This variability must be constrained in the highly reproducible and coordinated events of development. We identify means by which noise is controlled during gene expression by characterizing the dependence of hb mRNA and protein output noise on hb promoter structure and transcriptional dynamics. We use a stochastic model of the hb promoter in which the number and strength of Bcd and Hb (self-regulatory) binding sites can be varied. Model parameters are fit to data from WT embryos, the self-regulation mutant hb(14F), and lacZ reporter constructs using different portions of the hb promoter. We have corroborated model noise predictions experimentally. The results indicate that WT (self-regulatory) Hb output noise is predominantly dependent on the transcription and translation dynamics of its own expression, rather than on Bcd fluctuations. The constructs and mutant, which lack self-regulation, indicate that the multiple Bcd binding sites in the hb promoter (and their strengths) also play a role in buffering noise. The model is robust to the variation in Bcd binding site number across a number of fly species. This study identifies particular ways in which promoter structure and regulatory dynamics reduce hb output noise. Insofar as many of these are common features of genes (e. g. multiple regulatory sites, cooperativity, self-feedback), the current results contribute to the general understanding of the reproducibility and determinacy of spatial patterning in early development.

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Complex networks have been characterised by their specific connectivity patterns (network motifs), but their building blocks can also be identified and described by node-motifs-a combination of local network features. One technique to identify single node-motifs has been presented by Costa et al. (L. D. F. Costa, F. A. Rodrigues, C. C. Hilgetag, and M. Kaiser, Europhys. Lett., 87, 1, 2009). Here, we first suggest improvements to the method including how its parameters can be determined automatically. Such automatic routines make high-throughput studies of many networks feasible. Second, the new routines are validated in different network-series. Third, we provide an example of how the method can be used to analyse network time-series. In conclusion, we provide a robust method for systematically discovering and classifying characteristic nodes of a network. In contrast to classical motif analysis, our approach can identify individual components (here: nodes) that are specific to a network. Such special nodes, as hubs before, might be found to play critical roles in real-world networks.

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In this article, we evaluate the use of simple Lee-Goldburg cross-polarization (LG-CP) NMR experiments for obtaining quantitative information of molecular motion in the intermediate regime. In particular, we introduce the measurement of Hartmann-Hahn matching profiles for the assessment of heteronuclear dipolar couplings as well as dynamics as a reliable and robust alternative to the more common analysis of build-up curves. We have carried out dynamic spin dynamics simulations in order to test the method's sensitivity to intermediate motion and address its limitations concerning possible experimental imperfections. We further demonstrate the successful use of simple theoretical concepts, most prominently Anderson-Weiss (AW) theory, to analyze the data. We further propose an alternative way to estimate activation energies of molecular motions, based upon the acquisition of only two LG-CP spectra per temperature at different temperatures. As experimental tests, molecular jumps in imidazole methyl sulfonate, trimethylsulfoxonium iodide, and bisphenol A polycarbonate were investigated with the new method.

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Alternative splicing of gene transcripts greatly expands the functional capacity of the genome, and certain splice isoforms may indicate specific disease states such as cancer. Splice junction microarrays interrogate thousands of splice junctions, but data analysis is difficult and error prone because of the increased complexity compared to differential gene expression analysis. We present Rank Change Detection (RCD) as a method to identify differential splicing events based upon a straightforward probabilistic model comparing the over-or underrepresentation of two or more competing isoforms. RCD has advantages over commonly used methods because it is robust to false positive errors due to nonlinear trends in microarray measurements. Further, RCD does not depend on prior knowledge of splice isoforms, yet it takes advantage of the inherent structure of mutually exclusive junctions, and it is conceptually generalizable to other types of splicing arrays or RNA-Seq. RCD specifically identifies the biologically important cases when a splice junction becomes more or less prevalent compared to other mutually exclusive junctions. The example data is from different cell lines of glioblastoma tumors assayed with Agilent microarrays.

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Despite the fact that the majority of the catalytic electro-oxidation of small organic molecules presents oscillatory kinetics under certain conditions, there are few systematic studies concerning the influence of experimental parameters on the oscillatory dynamics. Of the studies available, most are devoted to C1 molecules and just some scattered data are available for C2 molecules. We present in this work a comprehensive study of the electro-oxidation of ethylene glycol on polycrystalline platinum surfaces and in alkaline media. The system was studied by means of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, cyclic voltammetry, and chronoamperometry, and the impact of parameters such as applied current, ethylene glycol concentration, and temperature were investigated. As in the case of other parent systems, the instabilities in this system were associated with a hidden negative differential resistance, as identified by impedance data. Very rich and robust dynamics were observed, including the presence of harmonic and mixed mode oscillations and chaotic states, in some parameter region. Oscillation frequencies of about 16 Hz characterized the fastest oscillations ever reported for the electro-oxidation of small organic molecules. Those high frequencies were strongly influenced by the electrolyte pH and far less affected by the EG concentration. The system was regularly dependent on temperature under voltammetric conditions but rather independent within the oscillatory regime.

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The application of laser induced breakdown spectrometry (LIBS) aiming the direct analysis of plant materials is a great challenge that still needs efforts for its development and validation. In this way, a series of experimental approaches has been carried out in order to show that LIBS can be used as an alternative method to wet acid digestions based methods for analysis of agricultural and environmental samples. The large amount of information provided by LIBS spectra for these complex samples increases the difficulties for selecting the most appropriated wavelengths for each analyte. Some applications have suggested that improvements in both accuracy and precision can be achieved by the application of multivariate calibration in LIBS data when compared to the univariate regression developed with line emission intensities. In the present work, the performance of univariate and multivariate calibration, based on partial least squares regression (PLSR), was compared for analysis of pellets of plant materials made from an appropriate mixture of cryogenically ground samples with cellulose as the binding agent. The development of a specific PLSR model for each analyte and the selection of spectral regions containing only lines of the analyte of interest were the best conditions for the analysis. In this particular application, these models showed a similar performance. but PLSR seemed to be more robust due to a lower occurrence of outliers in comparison to the univariate method. Data suggests that efforts dealing with sample presentation and fitness of standards for LIBS analysis must be done in order to fulfill the boundary conditions for matrix independent development and validation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Background: Although the Clock Drawing Test (CDT) is the second most used test in the world for the screening of dementia, there is still debate over its sensitivity specificity, application and interpretation in dementia diagnosis. This study has three main aims: to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the CDT in a sample composed of older adults with Alzheimer`s disease (AD) and normal controls; to compare CDT accuracy to the that of the Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG), and to test whether the association of the MMSE with the CDT leads to higher or comparable accuracy as that reported for the CAMCOG. Methods: Cross-sectional assessment was carried out for 121 AD and 99 elderly controls with heterogeneous educational levels from a geriatric outpatient clinic who completed the Cambridge Examination for Mental Disorder of the Elderly (CAMDEX). The CDT was evaluated according to the Shulman, Mendez and Sunderland scales. Results: The CDT showed high sensitivity and specificity. There were significant correlations between the CDT and the MMSE (0.700-0.730; p < 0.001) and between the CDT and the CAMCOG (0.753-0.779; p < 0.001). The combination of the CDT with the MMSE improved sensitivity and specificity (SE = 89.2-90%; SP = 71.7-79.8%). Subgroup analysis indicated that for elderly people with lower education, sensitivity and specificity were both adequate and high. Conclusions: The CDT is a robust screening test when compared with the MMSE or the CAMCOG, independent of the scale used for its interpretation. The combination with the MMSE improves its performance significantly, becoming equivalent to the CAMCOG.