Development of a 3-Dimensional Mathematical Collision Risk Model Based on Recorded Aircraft Trajectories to Estimate the Safety Level in High Density En-Route Airspaces

Como en todos los medios de transporte, la seguridad en los viajes en avión es de primordial importancia. Con los aumentos de tráfico aéreo previstos en Europa para la próxima década, es evidente que el riesgo de accidentes necesita ser evaluado y monitorizado cuidadosamente de forma continúa. La Tesis presente tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión exhaustivo como método para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en ruta del espacio aéreo europeo, considerando todos los factores de influencia. La mayor limitación en el desarrollo de metodologías y herramientas de monitorización adecuadas para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en espacios de ruta europeos, donde los controladores aéreos monitorizan el tráfico aéreo mediante la vigilancia radar y proporcionan instrucciones tácticas a las aeronaves, reside en la estimación del riesgo operacional. Hoy en día, la estimación del riesgo operacional está basada normalmente en reportes de incidentes proporcionados por el proveedor de servicios de navegación aérea (ANSP). Esta Tesis propone un nuevo e innovador enfoque para evaluar el nivel de seguridad basado exclusivamente en el procesamiento y análisis trazas radar. La metodología propuesta ha sido diseñada para complementar la información recogida en las bases de datos de accidentes e incidentes, mediante la provisión de información robusta de los factores de tráfico aéreo y métricas de seguridad inferidas del análisis automático en profundidad de todos los eventos de proximidad. La metodología 3-D CRM se ha implementado en un prototipo desarrollado en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente las trazas radar y planes de vuelo registrados por los Sistemas de Procesamiento de Datos Radar (RDP) e identificar y analizar todos los eventos de proximidad (conflictos, conflictos potenciales y colisiones potenciales) en un periodo de tiempo y volumen del espacio aéreo. Actualmente, el prototipo 3-D CRM está siendo adaptado e integrado en la herramienta de monitorización de prestaciones de Aena (PERSEO) para complementar las bases de accidentes e incidentes ATM y mejorar la monitorización y proporcionar evidencias de los niveles de seguridad. ABSTRACT As with all forms of transport, the safety of air travel is of paramount importance. With the projected increases in European air traffic in the next decade and beyond, it is clear that the risk of accidents needs to be assessed and carefully monitored on a continuing basis. The present thesis is aimed at the development of a comprehensive collision risk model as a method of assessing the European en-route risk, due to all causes and across all dimensions within the airspace. The major constraint in developing appropriate monitoring methodologies and tools to assess the level of safety in en-route airspaces where controllers monitor air traffic by means of radar surveillance and provide aircraft with tactical instructions lies in the estimation of the operational risk. The operational risk estimate normally relies on incident reports provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSPs). This thesis proposes a new and innovative approach to assessing aircraft safety level based exclusively upon the process and analysis of radar tracks. The proposed methodology has been designed to complement the information collected in the accident and incident databases, thereby providing robust information on air traffic factors and safety metrics inferred from the in depth assessment of proximate events. The 3-D CRM methodology is implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyze recorded aircraft tracks and flight plan data from the Radar Data Processing systems (RDP) and identify and analyze all proximate events (conflicts, potential conflicts and potential collisions) within a time span and a given volume of airspace. Currently, the 3D-CRM prototype is been adapted and integrated in AENA’S Performance Monitoring Tool (PERSEO) to complement the information provided by the ATM accident and incident databases and to enhance monitoring and providing evidence of levels of safety.

Radio propagation modeling and measurements for ZigBee based indoor wireless sensor networks

The deployment of nodes in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) arises as one of the biggest challenges of this field, which involves in distributing a large number of embedded systems to fulfill a specific application. The connectivity of WSNs is difficult to estimate due to the irregularity of the physical environment and affects the WSN designers? decision on deploying sensor nodes. Therefore, in this paper, a new method is proposed to enhance the efficiency and accuracy on ZigBee propagation simulation in indoor environments. The method consists of two steps: automatic 3D indoor reconstruction and 3D ray-tracing based radio simulation. The automatic 3D indoor reconstruction employs unattended image classification algorithm and image vectorization algorithm to build the environment database accurately, which also significantly reduces time and efforts spent on non-radio propagation issue. The 3D ray tracing is developed by using kd-tree space division algorithm and a modified polar sweep algorithm, which accelerates the searching of rays over the entire space. Signal propagation model is proposed for the ray tracing engine by considering both the materials of obstacles and the impact of positions along the ray path of radio. Three different WSN deployments are realized in the indoor environment of an office and the results are verified to be accurate. Experimental results also indicate that the proposed method is efficient in pre-simulation strategy and 3D ray searching scheme and is suitable for different indoor environments.

Implementation of a building automation system based on semantic modeling

This paper presents an Ontology-Based multi-technology platform designed to avoid some issues of Building Automation Systems. The platform allows the integration of several building automation protocols, eases the development and implementation of different kinds of services and allows sharing information related to the infrastructure and facilities within a building. The system has been implemented and tested in the Energy Efficiency Research Facility at CeDInt-UPM.

A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation

A multivariate analysis on flood variables is needed to design some hydraulic structures like dams, as the complexity of the routing process in a reservoir requires a representation of the full hydrograph. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume, in order to know the probability of occurrence of a given inflow hydrograph. However, the risk of dam overtopping is given by the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, which depends on the hydrograph variables, the reservoir volume and the spillway crest length. Consequently, an additional bivariate return period, the so-called routed return period, was defined in terms of risk of dam overtopping based on this maximum water elevation obtained after routing the inflow hydrographs. The theoretical return periods, which give the probability of occurrence of a hydrograph prior to accounting for the reservoir routing, were compared with the routed return period, as in both cases hydrographs with the same probability will draw a curve in the peak-volume space. The procedure was applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered to investigate the influence of the dam and reservoir characteristics on the results. The methodology improves the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph and can be applied to assess the risk of dam overtopping

The Role of Knowledge Modeling Techniques in Software Development: A General Approach Based on a Knowledge Management Tool

The aim of the paper is to discuss the use of knowledge models to formulate general applications. First, the paper presents the recent evolution of the software field where increasing attention is paid to conceptual modeling. Then, the current state of knowledge modeling techniques is described where increased reliability is available through the modern knowledge acquisition techniques and supporting tools. The KSM (Knowledge Structure Manager) tool is described next. First, the concept of knowledge area is introduced as a building block where methods to perform a collection of tasks are included together with the bodies of knowledge providing the basic methods to perform the basic tasks. Then, the CONCEL language to define vocabularies of domains and the LINK language for methods formulation are introduced. Finally, the object oriented implementation of a knowledge area is described and a general methodology for application design and maintenance supported by KSM is proposed. To illustrate the concepts and methods, an example of system for intelligent traffic management in a road network is described. This example is followed by a proposal of generalization for reuse of the resulting architecture. Finally, some concluding comments are proposed about the feasibility of using the knowledge modeling tools and methods for general application design.

Modeling Commercial Knowledge to Develop Advanced Agent-based Marketplaces for E-commerce

This paper argues about the utility of advanced knowledge-based techniques to develop web-based applications that help consumers in finding products within marketplaces in e-commerce. In particular, we describe the idea of model-based approach to develop a shopping agent that dynamically configures a product according to the needs and preferences of customers. Finally, the paper summarizes the advantages provided by this approach.

Modeling of dangerous phenomena and innovative techniques for hazard evaluation and risk mitigation

Society is frequently exposed to and threatened by dangerous phenomena in many parts of the world. Different types of such phenomena require specific actions for proper risk management, from the stages of hazard identification to those of mitigation (including monitoring and early-warning) and/or reduction. The understanding of both predisposing factors and triggering mechanisms of a given danger and the prediction of its evolution from the source to the overall affected zone are relevant issues that must be addressed to properly evaluate a given hazard.

Microstructure-based numerical modeling of the mechanical behavior of Mg alloys

Dentro de los materiales estructurales, el magnesio y sus aleaciones están siendo el foco de una de profunda investigación. Esta investigación está dirigida a comprender la relación existente entre la microestructura de las aleaciones de Mg y su comportamiento mecánico. El objetivo es optimizar las aleaciones actuales de magnesio a partir de su microestructura y diseñar nuevas aleaciones. Sin embargo, el efecto de los factores microestructurales (como la forma, el tamaño, la orientación de los precipitados y la morfología de los granos) en el comportamiento mecánico de estas aleaciones está todavía por descubrir. Para conocer mejor de la relación entre la microestructura y el comportamiento mecánico, es necesaria la combinación de técnicas avanzadas de caracterización experimental como de simulación numérica, a diferentes longitudes de escala. En lo que respecta a las técnicas de simulación numérica, la homogeneización policristalina es una herramienta muy útil para predecir la respuesta macroscópica a partir de la microestructura de un policristal (caracterizada por el tamaño, la forma y la distribución de orientaciones de los granos) y el comportamiento del monocristal. La descripción de la microestructura se lleva a cabo mediante modernas técnicas de caracterización (difracción de rayos X, difracción de electrones retrodispersados, así como con microscopia óptica y electrónica). Sin embargo, el comportamiento del cristal sigue siendo difícil de medir, especialmente en aleaciones de Mg, donde es muy complicado conocer el valor de los parámetros que controlan el comportamiento mecánico de los diferentes modos de deslizamiento y maclado. En la presente tesis se ha desarrollado una estrategia de homogeneización computacional para predecir el comportamiento de aleaciones de magnesio. El comportamiento de los policristales ha sido obtenido mediante la simulación por elementos finitos de un volumen representativo (RVE) de la microestructura, considerando la distribución real de formas y orientaciones de los granos. El comportamiento del cristal se ha simulado mediante un modelo de plasticidad cristalina que tiene en cuenta los diferentes mecanismos físicos de deformación, como el deslizamiento y el maclado. Finalmente, la obtención de los parámetros que controlan el comportamiento del cristal (tensiones críticas resueltas (CRSS) así como las tasas de endurecimiento para todos los modos de maclado y deslizamiento) se ha resuelto mediante la implementación de una metodología de optimización inversa, una de las principales aportaciones originales de este trabajo. La metodología inversa pretende, por medio del algoritmo de optimización de Levenberg-Marquardt, obtener el conjunto de parámetros que definen el comportamiento del monocristal y que mejor ajustan a un conjunto de ensayos macroscópicos independientes. Además de la implementación de la técnica, se han estudiado tanto la objetividad del metodología como la unicidad de la solución en función de la información experimental. La estrategia de optimización inversa se usó inicialmente para obtener el comportamiento cristalino de la aleación AZ31 de Mg, obtenida por laminado. Esta aleación tiene una marcada textura basal y una gran anisotropía plástica. El comportamiento de cada grano incluyó cuatro mecanismos de deformación diferentes: deslizamiento en los planos basal, prismático, piramidal hc+ai, junto con el maclado en tracción. La validez de los parámetros resultantes se validó mediante la capacidad del modelo policristalino para predecir ensayos macroscópicos independientes en diferentes direcciones. En segundo lugar se estudió mediante la misma estrategia, la influencia del contenido de Neodimio (Nd) en las propiedades de una aleación de Mg-Mn-Nd, obtenida por extrusión. Se encontró que la adición de Nd produce una progresiva isotropización del comportamiento macroscópico. El modelo mostró que este incremento de la isotropía macroscópica era debido tanto a la aleatoriedad de la textura inicial como al incremento de la isotropía del comportamiento del cristal, con valores similares de las CRSSs de los diferentes modos de deformación. Finalmente, el modelo se empleó para analizar el efecto de la temperatura en el comportamiento del cristal de la aleación de Mg-Mn-Nd. La introducción en el modelo de los efectos non-Schmid sobre el modo de deslizamiento piramidal hc+ai permitió capturar el comportamiento mecánico a temperaturas superiores a 150_C. Esta es la primera vez, de acuerdo con el conocimiento del autor, que los efectos non-Schmid han sido observados en una aleación de Magnesio. The study of Magnesium and its alloys is a hot research topic in structural materials. In particular, special attention is being paid in understanding the relationship between microstructure and mechanical behavior in order to optimize the current alloy microstructures and guide the design of new alloys. However, the particular effect of several microstructural factors (precipitate shape, size and orientation, grain morphology distribution, etc.) in the mechanical performance of a Mg alloy is still under study. The combination of advanced characterization techniques and modeling at several length scales is necessary to improve the understanding of the relation microstructure and mechanical behavior. Respect to the simulation techniques, polycrystalline homogenization is a very useful tool to predict the macroscopic response from polycrystalline microstructure (grain size, shape and orientation distributions) and crystal behavior. The microstructure description is fully covered with modern characterization techniques (X-ray diffraction, EBSD, optical and electronic microscopy). However, the mechanical behaviour of single crystals is not well-known, especially in Mg alloys where the correct parameterization of the mechanical behavior of the different slip/twin modes is a very difficult task. A computational homogenization framework for predicting the behavior of Magnesium alloys has been developed in this thesis. The polycrystalline behavior was obtained by means of the finite element simulation of a representative volume element (RVE) of the microstructure including the actual grain shape and orientation distributions. The crystal behavior for the grains was accounted for a crystal plasticity model which took into account the physical deformation mechanisms, e.g. slip and twinning. Finally, the problem of the parametrization of the crystal behavior (critical resolved shear stresses (CRSS) and strain hardening rates of all the slip and twinning modes) was obtained by the development of an inverse optimization methodology, one of the main original contributions of this thesis. The inverse methodology aims at finding, by means of the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm, the set of parameters defining crystal behavior that best fit a set of independent macroscopic tests. The objectivity of the method and the uniqueness of solution as function of the input information has been numerically studied. The inverse optimization strategy was first used to obtain the crystal behavior of a rolled polycrystalline AZ31 Mg alloy that showed a marked basal texture and a strong plastic anisotropy. Four different deformation mechanisms: basal, prismatic and pyramidal hc+ai slip, together with tensile twinning were included to characterize the single crystal behavior. The validity of the resulting parameters was proved by the ability of the polycrystalline model to predict independent macroscopic tests on different directions. Secondly, the influence of Neodymium (Nd) content on an extruded polycrystalline Mg-Mn-Nd alloy was studied using the same homogenization and optimization framework. The effect of Nd addition was a progressive isotropization of the macroscopic behavior. The model showed that this increase in the macroscopic isotropy was due to a randomization of the initial texture and also to an increase of the crystal behavior isotropy (similar values of the CRSSs of the different modes). Finally, the model was used to analyze the effect of temperature on the crystal behaviour of a Mg-Mn-Nd alloy. The introduction in the model of non-Schmid effects on the pyramidal hc+ai slip allowed to capture the inverse strength differential that appeared, between the tension and compression, above 150_C. This is the first time, to the author's knowledge, that non-Schmid effects have been reported for Mg alloys.

Qualitative operational value at risk for an electric utility based on the guidelines of the basel committee

This paper presents a model for determining value at operational risk ?OpVaR? in electric utilities, with the aim to confirm the versatility of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) proposals. The model intends to open a new methodological approach in risk management, paying special attention to underlying operational sources of risk.

A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

Modeling of GRBAS perceptual evaluation using spectral features obtained from an auditory-based filterbank.

Perceptual voice evaluation according to the GRBAS scale is modelled using a linear combination of acoustic parameters calculated after a filter-bank analysis of the recorded voice signals. Modelling results indicate that for breathiness and asthenia more than 55% of the variance of perceptual rates can be explained by such a model, with only 4 latent variables. Moreover, the greatest part of the explained variance can be attributed to only one or two latent variables similarly weighted by all 5 listeners involved in the experiment. Correlation factors between actual rates and model predictions around 0.6 are obtained.