Astronomical site testing in the era of the extremely large telescopes

The quality of astronomical sites is the first step to be considered to have the best performances from the telescopes. In particular, the efficiency of large telescopes in UV, IR, radio etc. is critically dependent on atmospheric transparency. It is well known that the random optical effects induced on the light propagation by turbulent atmosphere also limit telescope’s performances. Nowadays, clear appears the importance to correlate the main atmospheric physical parameters with the optical quality reachable by large aperture telescopes. The sky quality evaluation improved with the introduction of new techniques, new instrumentations and with the understanding of the link between the meteorological (or synoptical parameters and the observational conditions thanks to the application of the theories of electromagnetic waves propagation in turbulent medias: what we actually call astroclimatology. At the present the site campaigns are evolved and are performed using the classical scheme of optical seeing properties, meteorological parameters, sky transparency, sky darkness and cloudiness. New concept are added and are related to the geophysical properties such as seismicity, microseismicity, local variability of the climate, atmospheric conditions related to the ground optical turbulence and ground wind regimes, aerosol presence, use of satellite data. The purpose of this project is to provide reliable methods to analyze the atmospheric properties that affect ground-based optical astronomical observations and to correlate them with the main atmospheric parameters generating turbulence and affecting the photometric accuracy. The first part of the research concerns the analysis and interpretation of longand short-time scale meteorological data at two of the most important astronomical sites located in very different environments: the Paranal Observatory in the Atacama Desert (Chile), and the Observatorio del Roque de Los Muchachos(ORM) located in La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain). The optical properties of airborne dust at ORM have been investigated collecting outdoor data using a ground-based dust monitor. Because of its dryness, Paranal is a suitable observatory for near-IR observations, thus the extinction properties in the spectral range 1.00-2.30 um have been investigated using an empirical method. Furthermore, this PhD research has been developed using several turbulence profilers in the selection of the site for the European Extremely Large Telescope(E-ELT). During the campaigns the properties of the turbulence at different heights at Paranal and in the sites located in northern Chile and Argentina have been studied. This given the possibility to characterize the surface layer turbulence at Paranal and its connection with local meteorological conditions.

LBT AO system: tests and calibration

An Adaptive Optic (AO) system is a fundamental requirement of 8m-class telescopes. We know that in order to obtain the maximum possible resolution allowed by these telescopes we need to correct the atmospheric turbulence. Thanks to adaptive optic systems we are able to use all the effective potential of these instruments, drawing all the information from the universe sources as best as possible. In an AO system there are two main components: the wavefront sensor (WFS) that is able to measure the aberrations on the incoming wavefront in the telescope, and the deformable mirror (DM) that is able to assume a shape opposite to the one measured by the sensor. The two subsystem are connected by the reconstructor (REC). In order to do this, the REC requires a “common language" between these two main AO components. It means that it needs a mapping between the sensor-space and the mirror-space, called an interaction matrix (IM). Therefore, in order to operate correctly, an AO system has a main requirement: the measure of an IM in order to obtain a calibration of the whole AO system. The IM measurement is a 'mile stone' for an AO system and must be done regardless of the telescope size or class. Usually, this calibration step is done adding to the telescope system an auxiliary artificial source of light (i.e a fiber) that illuminates both the deformable mirror and the sensor, permitting the calibration of the AO system. For large telescope (more than 8m, like Extremely Large Telescopes, ELTs) the fiber based IM measurement requires challenging optical setups that in some cases are also impractical to build. In these cases, new techniques to measure the IM are needed. In this PhD work we want to check the possibility of a different method of calibration that can be applied directly on sky, at the telescope, without any auxiliary source. Such a technique can be used to calibrate AO system on a telescope of any size. We want to test the new calibration technique, called “sinusoidal modulation technique”, on the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) AO system, which is already a complete AO system with the two main components: a secondary deformable mirror with by 672 actuators, and a pyramid wavefront sensor. My first phase of PhD work was helping to implement the WFS board (containing the pyramid sensor and all the auxiliary optical components) working both optical alignments and tests of some optical components. Thanks to the “solar tower” facility of the Astrophysical Observatory of Arcetri (Firenze), we have been able to reproduce an environment very similar to the telescope one, testing the main LBT AO components: the pyramid sensor and the secondary deformable mirror. Thanks to this the second phase of my PhD thesis: the measure of IM applying the sinusoidal modulation technique. At first we have measured the IM using a fiber auxiliary source to calibrate the system, without any kind of disturbance injected. After that, we have tried to use this calibration technique in order to measure the IM directly “on sky”, so adding an atmospheric disturbance to the AO system. The results obtained in this PhD work measuring the IM directly in the Arcetri solar tower system are crucial for the future development: the possibility of the acquisition of IM directly on sky means that we are able to calibrate an AO system also for extremely large telescope class where classic IM measurements technique are problematic and, sometimes, impossible. Finally we have not to forget the reason why we need this: the main aim is to observe the universe. Thanks to these new big class of telescopes and only using their full capabilities, we will be able to increase our knowledge of the universe objects observed, because we will be able to resolve more detailed characteristics, discovering, analyzing and understanding the behavior of the universe components.

Development of muliplexed analytical methods based on bioluminescent whole-cell biosensors

The subject of this Ph.D. research thesis is the development and application of multiplexed analytical methods based on bioluminescent whole-cell biosensors. One of the main goals of analytical chemistry is multianalyte testing in which two or more analytes are measured simultaneously in a single assay. The advantages of multianalyte testing are work simplification, high throughput, and reduction in the overall cost per test. The availability of multiplexed portable analytical systems is of particular interest for on-field analysis of clinical, environmental or food samples as well as for the drug discovery process. To allow highly sensitive and selective analysis, these devices should combine biospecific molecular recognition with ultrasensitive detection systems. To address the current need for rapid, highly sensitive and inexpensive devices for obtaining more data from each sample,genetically engineered whole-cell biosensors as biospecific recognition element were combined with ultrasensitive bioluminescence detection techniques. Genetically engineered cell-based sensing systems were obtained by introducing into bacterial, yeast or mammalian cells a vector expressing a reporter protein whose expression is controlled by regulatory proteins and promoter sequences. The regulatory protein is able to recognize the presence of the analyte (e.g., compounds with hormone-like activity, heavy metals…) and to consequently activate the expression of the reporter protein that can be readily measured and directly related to the analyte bioavailable concentration in the sample. Bioluminescence represents the ideal detection principle for miniaturized analytical devices and multiplexed assays thanks to high detectability in small sample volumes allowing an accurate signal localization and quantification. In the first chapter of this dissertation is discussed the obtainment of improved bioluminescent proteins emitting at different wavelenghts, in term of increased thermostability, enhanced emission decay kinetic and spectral resolution. The second chapter is mainly focused on the use of these proteins in the development of whole-cell based assay with improved analytical performance. In particular since the main drawback of whole-cell biosensors is the high variability of their analyte specific response mainly caused by variations in cell viability due to aspecific effects of the sample’s matrix, an additional bioluminescent reporter has been introduced to correct the analytical response thus increasing the robustness of the bioassays. The feasibility of using a combination of two or more bioluminescent proteins for obtaining biosensors with internal signal correction or for the simultaneous detection of multiple analytes has been demonstrated by developing a dual reporter yeast based biosensor for androgenic activity measurement and a triple reporter mammalian cell-based biosensor for the simultaneous monitoring of two CYP450 enzymes activation, involved in cholesterol degradation, with the use of two spectrally resolved intracellular luciferases and a secreted luciferase as a control for cells viability. In the third chapter is presented the development of a portable multianalyte detection system. In order to develop a portable system that can be used also outside the laboratory environment even by non skilled personnel, cells have been immobilized into a new biocompatible and transparent polymeric matrix within a modified clear bottom black 384 -well microtiter plate to obtain a bioluminescent cell array. The cell array was placed in contact with a portable charge-coupled device (CCD) light sensor able to localize and quantify the luminescent signal produced by different bioluminescent whole-cell biosensors. This multiplexed biosensing platform containing whole-cell biosensors was successfully used to measure the overall toxicity of a given sample as well as to obtain dose response curves for heavy metals and to detect hormonal activity in clinical samples (PCT/IB2010/050625: “Portable device based on immobilized cells for the detection of analytes.” Michelini E, Roda A, Dolci LS, Mezzanotte L, Cevenini L , 2010). At the end of the dissertation some future development steps are also discussed in order to develop a point of care (POCT) device that combine portability, minimum sample pre-treatment and highly sensitive multiplexed assays in a short assay time. In this POCT perspective, field-flow fractionation (FFF) techniques, in particular gravitational variant (GrFFF) that exploit the earth gravitational field to structure the separation, have been investigated for cells fractionation, characterization and isolation. Thanks to the simplicity of its equipment, amenable to miniaturization, the GrFFF techniques appears to be particularly suited for its implementation in POCT devices and may be used as pre-analytical integrated module to be applied directly to drive target analytes of raw samples to the modules where biospecifc recognition reactions based on ultrasensitive bioluminescence detection occurs, providing an increase in overall analytical output.

New discotic liquid crystals based on large polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons as materials for molecular electronics

A series of new columnar discotic liquid crystalline materials based on the superphenalene (C96) core has been synthesized by oxidative cyclodehydrogenation with iron(III) chloride of suitable three-dimensional oligophenylene precursors. These compounds were investigated by means of differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), polarized optical microscopy (POM) and wide angle X-ray scattering (WAXS), and showed highly ordered supramolecular arrays and mesophase behavior over a broad temperature range. Good solubility, through the introduction of long alkyl chains, and the fact that these new superphenalene derivatives were found to be liquid crystalline at room temperature enabled the formation of highly ordered films (using the zone-casting technique), a requirement for application in organic electronic devices. The one-dimensional, intracolumnar charge carrier mobilities of superphenalene derivatives were determined using the pulse-radiolysis time-resolved microwave conductivity technique (PR-TRMC). Electrical properties of different C96-C12 architectures on mica surfaces were examined by using Electrostatic Force Microscopy (EFM) and Kelvin Probe Force Microscopy (KPFM). Hexa-peri-hexabenzocoronene (C42) derivatives substituted at the periphery with six branched alkyl ether chains were also synthesized. It was found that the introduction of ether groups within the side chains enhances the affinity of the discotic molecules towards polar surfaces, resulting in homeotropic self-assembly (as shown by POM and 2D-WAXS) when the compounds are processed from the isotropic state between two surfaces. A new, insoluble, superphenalene building block bearing six reactive sites was prepared, and was further used for the preparation of dendronized superphenalenes with bulky dendritic substituents around the core. UV/Vis and fluorescence experiments suggest reduced π-π stacking of the superphenalene cores as a result of steric hindrance between the peripheral dendritic units. A new family of graphitic molecules with partial ”zig-zag” periphery has been established. The incorporation of ”zig-zag” edges was shown to have a strong influence on the electronic properties of the new molecules (as studied by solution and solid-state UV/Vis, and fluorescence spectroscopy), leading to a significant bathochromic shift with respect to the parent PAHs (C42 and C96). The reactivity of the additional double bonds was examined. The attachment of long alkyl chains to a ”zig-zag” superphenalene core afforded a new, processable, liquid crystalline material.

A Design Methodology for Computer Security Testing

The field of "computer security" is often considered something in between Art and Science. This is partly due to the lack of widely agreed and standardized methodologies to evaluate the degree of the security of a system. This dissertation intends to contribute to this area by investigating the most common security testing strategies applied nowadays and by proposing an enhanced methodology that may be effectively applied to different threat scenarios with the same degree of effectiveness. Security testing methodologies are the first step towards standardized security evaluation processes and understanding of how the security threats evolve over time. This dissertation analyzes some of the most used identifying differences and commonalities, useful to compare them and assess their quality. The dissertation then proposes a new enhanced methodology built by keeping the best of every analyzed methodology. The designed methodology is tested over different systems with very effective results, which is the main evidence that it could really be applied in practical cases. Most of the dissertation discusses and proves how the presented testing methodology could be applied to such different systems and even to evade security measures by inverting goals and scopes. Real cases are often hard to find in methodology' documents, in contrary this dissertation wants to show real and practical cases offering technical details about how to apply it. Electronic voting systems are the first field test considered, and Pvote and Scantegrity are the two tested electronic voting systems. The usability and effectiveness of the designed methodology for electronic voting systems is proved thanks to this field cases analysis. Furthermore reputation and anti virus engines have also be analyzed with similar results. The dissertation concludes by presenting some general guidelines to build a coordination-based approach of electronic voting systems to improve the security without decreasing the system modularity.

Advanced Numerical Simulation of Silicon-Based Solar Cells

Photovoltaic (PV) conversion is the direct production of electrical energy from sun without involving the emission of polluting substances. In order to be competitive with other energy sources, cost of the PV technology must be reduced ensuring adequate conversion efficiencies. These goals have motivated the interest of researchers in investigating advanced designs of crystalline silicon solar (c-Si) cells. Since lowering the cost of PV devices involves the reduction of the volume of semiconductor, an effective light trapping strategy aimed at increasing the photon absorption is required. Modeling of solar cells by electro-optical numerical simulation is helpful to predict the performance of future generations devices exhibiting advanced light-trapping schemes and to provide new and more specific guidelines to industry. The approaches to optical simulation commonly adopted for c-Si solar cells may lead to inaccurate results in case of thin film and nano-stuctured solar cells. On the other hand, rigorous solvers of Maxwell equations are really cpu- and memory-intensive. Recently, in optical simulation of solar cells, the RCWA method has gained relevance, providing a good trade-off between accuracy and computational resources requirement. This thesis is a contribution to the numerical simulation of advanced silicon solar cells by means of a state-of-the-art numerical 2-D/3-D device simulator, that has been successfully applied to the simulation of selective emitter and the rear point contact solar cells, for which the multi-dimensionality of the transport model is required in order to properly account for all physical competing mechanisms. In the second part of the thesis, the optical problems is discussed. Two novel and computationally efficient RCWA implementations for 2-D simulation domains as well as a third RCWA for 3-D structures based on an eigenvalues calculation approach have been presented. The proposed simulators have been validated in terms of accuracy, numerical convergence, computation time and correctness of results.

Testing future weak lensing surveys through simulations of observations

Weak lensing experiments such as the future ESA-accepted mission Euclid aim to measure cosmological parameters with unprecedented accuracy. It is important to assess the precision that can be obtained in these measurements by applying analysis software on mock images that contain many sources of noise present in the real data. In this Thesis, we show a method to perform simulations of observations, that produce realistic images of the sky according to characteristics of the instrument and of the survey. We then use these images to test the performances of the Euclid mission. In particular, we concentrate on the precision of the photometric redshift measurements, which are key data to perform cosmic shear tomography. We calculate the fraction of the total observed sample that must be discarded to reach the required level of precision, that is equal to 0.05(1+z) for a galaxy with measured redshift z, with different ancillary ground-based observations. The results highlight the importance of u-band observations, especially to discriminate between low (z < 0.5) and high (z ~ 3) redshifts, and the need for good observing sites, with seeing FWHM < 1. arcsec. We then construct an optimal filter to detect galaxy clusters through photometric catalogues of galaxies, and we test it on the COSMOS field, obtaining 27 lensing-confirmed detections. Applying this algorithm on mock Euclid data, we verify the possibility to detect clusters with mass above 10^14.2 solar masses with a low rate of false detections.

Monitoring Complex Processes to Verify System Conformance: A Declarative Rule-Based Framework

Over the last 60 years, computers and software have favoured incredible advancements in every field. Nowadays, however, these systems are so complicated that it is difficult – if not challenging – to understand whether they meet some requirement or are able to show some desired behaviour or property. This dissertation introduces a Just-In-Time (JIT) a posteriori approach to perform the conformance check to identify any deviation from the desired behaviour as soon as possible, and possibly apply some corrections. The declarative framework that implements our approach – entirely developed on the promising open source forward-chaining Production Rule System (PRS) named Drools – consists of three components: 1. a monitoring module based on a novel, efficient implementation of Event Calculus (EC), 2. a general purpose hybrid reasoning module (the first of its genre) merging temporal, semantic, fuzzy and rule-based reasoning, 3. a logic formalism based on the concept of expectations introducing Event-Condition-Expectation rules (ECE-rules) to assess the global conformance of a system. The framework is also accompanied by an optional module that provides Probabilistic Inductive Logic Programming (PILP). By shifting the conformance check from after execution to just in time, this approach combines the advantages of many a posteriori and a priori methods proposed in literature. Quite remarkably, if the corrective actions are explicitly given, the reactive nature of this methodology allows to reconcile any deviations from the desired behaviour as soon as it is detected. In conclusion, the proposed methodology brings some advancements to solve the problem of the conformance checking, helping to fill the gap between humans and the increasingly complex technology.

Lateral tires characterization: testing, analytical models and applications for aeronautic purpose

The lateral characteristics of tires in terms of lateral forces as a function of sideslip angle is a focal point in the prediction of ground loads and ground handling aircraft behavior. However, tests to validate such coefficients are not mandatory to obtain Aircraft Type Certification and so they are not available for ATR tires. Anyway, some analytical values are implemented in ATR calculation codes (Flight Qualities in-house numerical code and Loads in-house numerical code). Hence, the goal of my work is to further investigate and validate lateral tires characteristics by means of: exploitation and re-parameterization of existing test on NLG tires, implementation of easy-handle model based on DFDR parameters to compute sideslip angles, application of this model to compute lateral loads on existing flight tests and incident cases, analysis of results. The last part of this work is dedicated to the preliminary study of a methodology to perform a test to retrieve lateral tire loads during ground turning with minimum requirements in terms of aircraft test instrumentation. This represents the basis for future works.

From inverted pendulum to N-link chain: inertial sensors-based assessment of movement kinematics and dynamics for functional evaluation and rehabilitation

Despite several clinical tests that have been developed to qualitatively describe complex motor tasks by functional testing, these methods often depend on clinicians' interpretation, experience and training, which make the assessment results inconsistent, without the precision required to objectively assess the effect of the rehabilitative intervention. A more detailed characterization is required to fully capture the various aspects of motor control and performance during complex movements of lower and upper limbs. The need for cost-effective and clinically applicable instrumented tests would enable quantitative assessment of performance on a subject-specific basis, overcoming the limitations due to the lack of objectiveness related to individual judgment, and possibly disclosing subtle alterations that are not clearly visible to the observer. Postural motion measurements at additional locations, such as lower and upper limbs and trunk, may be necessary in order to obtain information about the inter-segmental coordination during different functional tests involved in clinical practice. With these considerations in mind, this Thesis aims: i) to suggest a novel quantitative assessment tool for the kinematics and dynamics evaluation of a multi-link kinematic chain during several functional motor tasks (i.e. squat, sit-to-stand, postural sway), using one single-axis accelerometer per segment, ii) to present a novel quantitative technique for the upper limb joint kinematics estimation, considering a 3-link kinematic chain during the Fugl-Meyer Motor Assessment and using one inertial measurement unit per segment. The suggested methods could have several positive feedbacks from clinical practice. The use of objective biomechanical measurements, provided by inertial sensor-based technique, may help clinicians to: i) objectively track changes in motor ability, ii) provide timely feedback about the effectiveness of administered rehabilitation interventions, iii) enable intervention strategies to be modified or changed if found to be ineffective, and iv) speed up the experimental sessions when several subjects are asked to perform different functional tests.

Investigation of a superthermal ultracold neutron source based on a solid deuterium converter for the TRIGA Mainz reactor

Research in fundamental physics with the free neutron is one of the key tools for testing the Standard Model at low energies. Most prominent goals in this field are the search for a neutron electric dipole moment (EDM) and the measurement of the neutron lifetime. Significant improvements of the experimental performance using ultracold neutrons (UCN) require reduction of both systematic and statistical errors.rnThe development and construction of new UCN sources based on the superthermal concept is therefore an important step for the success of future fundamental physics with ultracold neutrons. rnSignificant enhancement of today available UCN densities strongly correlates with an efficient use of an UCN converter material. The UCN converter here is to be understood as a medium which reduces the velocity of cold neutrons (CN, velocity of about 600 m/s) to the velocity of UCN (velocity of about 6 m/s).rnSeveral big research centers around the world are presently planning or constructing new superthermal UCN sources, which are mainly based on the use of either solid deuterium or superfluid helium as UCN converter.rnThanks to the idea of Yu.Pokotilovsky, there exists the opportunity to build competitive UCN sources also at small research reactors of the TRIGA type. Of course these smaller facilities don't promise high UCN densities of several 1000 UCN/cm³, but they are able to provide densities around 100 UCN/cm³ for experiments.rnIn the context of this thesis, it was possible to demonstrate succesfully the feasibility of a superthermal UCN source at the tangential beamport C of the research reactor TRIGA Mainz. Based on a prototype for the future UCN source at the Forschungs-Neutronenquelle Heinz Maier-Leibnitz (FRMII) in munich, which was planned and built in collaboration with the Technical University of Munich, further investigations and improvements were done and are presented in this thesis. rnIn parallel, a second UCN source for the radial beamport D was designed and built. The comissioning of this new source is foreseen in spring 2010.rnAt beamport D with its higher thermal neutron flux, it should be possible to increase the available UCN densities of 4 UCN/cm³ by minimum one order of magnitude.

Maternal Smoking Impact on the Delivery Cost: a population-based study in the Emilia-Romagna region

This doctoral thesis is devoted to the study of the causal effects of the maternal smoking on the delivery cost. The interest of economic consequences of smoking in pregnancy have been studied fairly extensively in the USA, and very little is known in European context. To identify the causal relation between different maternal smoking status and the delivery cost in the Emilia-Romagna region two distinct methods were used. The first - geometric multidimensional - is mainly based on the multivariate approach and involves computing and testing the global imbalance, classifying cases in order to generate well-matched comparison groups, and then computing treatment effects. The second - structural modelling - refers to a general methodological account of model-building and model-testing. The main idea of this approach is to decompose the global mechanism into sub-mechanisms though a recursive decomposition of a multivariate distribution.

Diagnosis and Fault detection in Electrical Machines and Drives based on Advanced Signal Processing Techniques

In the present thesis, a new methodology of diagnosis based on advanced use of time-frequency technique analysis is presented. More precisely, a new fault index that allows tracking individual fault components in a single frequency band is defined. More in detail, a frequency sliding is applied to the signals being analyzed (currents, voltages, vibration signals), so that each single fault frequency component is shifted into a prefixed single frequency band. Then, the discrete Wavelet Transform is applied to the resulting signal to extract the fault signature in the frequency band that has been chosen. Once the state of the machine has been qualitatively diagnosed, a quantitative evaluation of the fault degree is necessary. For this purpose, a fault index based on the energy calculation of approximation and/or detail signals resulting from wavelet decomposition has been introduced to quantify the fault extend. The main advantages of the developed new method over existing Diagnosis techniques are the following: - Capability of monitoring the fault evolution continuously over time under any transient operating condition; - Speed/slip measurement or estimation is not required; - Higher accuracy in filtering frequency components around the fundamental in case of rotor faults; - Reduction in the likelihood of false indications by avoiding confusion with other fault harmonics (the contribution of the most relevant fault frequency components under speed-varying conditions are clamped in a single frequency band); - Low memory requirement due to low sampling frequency; - Reduction in the latency of time processing (no requirement of repeated sampling operation).

Characterization of optical transduction-based molecular systems and nanoparticles for the development of chemical sensors

With the increasing importance that nanotechnologies have in everyday life, it is not difficult to realize that also a single molecule, if properly designed, can be a device able to perform useful functions: such a chemical species is called chemosensor, that is a molecule of abiotic origin that signals the presence of matter or energy. Signal transduction is the mechanism by which an interaction of a sensor with an analyte yields a measurable form of energy. When dealing with the design of a chemosensor, we need to take into account a “communication requirement” between its three component: the receptor unit, responsible for the selective analyte binding, the spacer, which controls the geometry of the system and modulates the electronic interaction between the receptor and the signalling unit, whose physico-chemical properties change upon complexation. A luminescent chemosensor communicates a variation of the physico-chemical properties of the receptor unit with a luminescence output signal. This thesis work consists in the characterization of new molecular and nanoparticle-based system which can be used as sensitive materials for the construction of new optical transduction devices able to provide information about the concentration of analytes in solution. In particular two direction were taken. The first is to continue in the development of new chemosensors, that is the first step for the construction of reliable and efficient devices, and in particular the work will be focused on chemosensors for metal ions for biomedical and environmental applications. The second is to study more efficient and complex organized systems, such as derivatized silica nanoparticles. These system can potentially have higher sensitivity than molecular systems, and present many advantages, like the possibility to be ratiometric, higher Stokes shifts and lower signal-to-noise ratio.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.