850 resultados para relative risk


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La ricerca è strutturata in due sezioni: nella prima, dopo una premessa storica sul suicidio ed una lettura dei relativi dati statistici italiani integrata dall’analisi delle principali teorie sociologiche e dei principali aspetti psicopatologici e di psicologia clinica, vengono esaminati i risultati forniti da numerosi studi scientifici sul tema complementare delle morti equivoche, con particolare riferimento alle categorie a rischio rappresentate da anziani, carcerati, piloti di aerei, soggetti dediti a pratiche di asfissia autoerotica o roulette russa, istigatori delle forze di polizia e suicida stradali. Successivamente sono esaminati gli aspetti investigativi e medico-legali in tema di suicidi e morti equivoche con particolare riferimento alla tecnica dell’autopsia psicologica analizzandone le origini ed evoluzioni, il suo ambito di utilizzo ed i relativi aspetti metodologici. Nella seconda sezione del lavoro il tema dei suicidi e delle morti equivoche viene approfondito grazie all’apporto di professionisti di discipline diverse esperti in materia di autopsia psicologica ed indagini giudiziarie. A questi è stata presentata, con l’utilizzo della tecnica qualitativa “Dephi, una iniziale ipotesi di protocollo di autopsia psicologica, con le relative modalità applicative, al fine di procedere ad una sua revisione ed adattamento alle esigenze operative italiane grazie alle specifiche esperienze professionali e multidisciplinari maturate dagli esperti. I dati raccolti hanno permesso di giungere alla formulazione di un protocollo di autopsia psicologica, basato sulla elaborazione di domande generali, specifiche e conclusive, a risposta aperta, che possono esser formulate, secondo le modalità previste, alle persone affettivamente significative per la vittima nei confronti della quale si intende procedere con tale strumento investigativo.

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Questo lavoro di tesi muove da tematiche relative alla sicurezza IT e risulta dagli otto mesi di lavoro all’interno della funzione Technical Security di Telecom Italia Information Technology. Il compito primario di questa unità di business è ridurre il rischio informatico dei sistemi di Telecom Italia per mezzo dell’attuazione del processo di ICT Risk Management, che coinvolge l’intera organizzazione ed è stato oggetto di una riprogettazione nel corso del 2012. Per estendere tale processo a tutti i sistemi informatici, nello specifico a quelli caratterizzati da non conformità, all’inizio del 2013 è stato avviato il Programma Strutturato di Sicurezza, un aggregato di quattro progetti dalla durata triennale particolarmente articolato e complesso. La pianificazione di tale Programma ha visto coinvolto, tra gli altri, il team di cui ho fatto parte, che ha collaborato con Telecom Italia assolvendo alcune delle funzioni di supporto tipiche dei Project Management Office (PMO).

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La stima della frequenza di accadimento di eventi incidentali di tipo random da linee e apparecchiature è in generale effettuata sulla base delle informazioni presenti in banche dati specializzate. I dati presenti in tali banche contengono informazioni relative ad eventi incidentali avvenuti in varie tipologie di installazioni, che spaziano dagli impianti chimici a quelli petrolchimici. Alcune di queste banche dati risultano anche piuttosto datate, poiché fanno riferimento ad incidenti verificatisi ormai molto addietro negli anni. Ne segue che i valori relativi alle frequenze di perdita forniti dalle banche dati risultano molto conservativi. Per ovviare a tale limite e tenere in conto il progresso tecnico, la linea guida API Recommended Pratice 581, pubblicata nel 2000 e successivamente aggiornata nel 2008, ha introdotto un criterio per determinare frequenze di perdita specializzate alla realtà propria impiantistica, mediante l’ausilio di coefficienti correttivi che considerano il meccanismo di guasto del componente, il sistema di gestione della sicurezza e l’efficacia dell’attività ispettiva. Il presente lavoro di tesi ha lo scopo di mettere in evidenza l’evoluzione dell’approccio di valutazione delle frequenze di perdita da tubazione. Esso è articolato come descritto nel seguito. Il Capitolo 1 ha carattere introduttivo. Nel Capitolo 2 è affrontato lo studio delle frequenze di perdita reperibili nelle banche dati generaliste. Nel Capitolo 3 sono illustrati due approcci, uno qualitativo ed uno quantitativo, che permettono di determinare le linee che presentano priorità più alta per essere sottoposte all’attività ispettiva. Il Capitolo 4 è dedicato alla descrizione della guida API Recomended Practice 581. L’applicazione ad un caso di studio dei criteri di selezione delle linee illustrati nel Capitolo 3 e la definizione delle caratteristiche dell’attività ispettiva secondo la linea guida API Recomended Practice 581 sono illustrati nel Capitolo 5. Infine nel Capitolo 6 sono rese esplicite le considerazioni conclusive dello studio effettuato.

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Since 2007, more than 250,000 American students have studied abroad annually for a semester or more. While there are obvious benefits associated with study abroad programs, personal risks (including interpersonal victimization such as sexual and physical assault) occurring during the experience have been anecdotally reported but not systematically assessed. This study is the first to investigate the possibility of increased risk for sexual assault in female undergraduates while abroad. Two hundred eighteen female undergraduates completed a modified version of the Sexual Experiences Survey (SES: Koss et al., 2007) about their sexual experiences abroad and on campus. Findings indicate increased risk for sexual assault while abroad relative to on-campus rates, particularly in non-English speaking countries. Study abroad programs should consider educating students about increased risk and develop response protocols when sexual assaults happen while abroad.

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Learned irrelevance (LIrr) refers to a form of selective learning that develops as a result of prior noncorrelated exposures of the predicted and predictor stimuli. In learning situations that depend on the associative link between the predicted and predictor stimuli, LIrr is expressed as a retardation of learning. It represents a form of modulation of learning by selective attention. Given the relevance of selective attention impairment to both positive and cognitive schizophrenia symptoms, the question remains whether LIrr impairment represents a state (relating to symptom manifestation) or trait (relating to schizophrenia endophenotypes) marker of human psychosis. We examined this by evaluating the expression of LIrr in an associative learning paradigm in (1) asymptomatic first-degree relatives of schizophrenia patients (SZ-relatives) and in (2) individuals exhibiting prodromal signs of psychosis ("ultrahigh risk" [UHR] patients) in each case relative to demographically matched healthy control subjects. There was no evidence for aberrant LIrr in SZ-relatives, but LIrr as well as associative learning were attenuated in UHR patients. It is concluded that LIrr deficiency in conjunction with a learning impairment might be a useful state marker predictive of psychotic state but a relatively weak link to a potential schizophrenia endophenotype.

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The parasite Echinococcus multilocularis was first detected in The Netherlands in 1996 and repeated studies have shown that the parasite subsequently spread in the local population of foxes in the province of Limburg. It was not possible to quantify the human risk of alveolar echinococcosis because no relationship between the amount of parasite eggs in the environment and the probability of infection in humans was known. Here, we used the spread of the parasite in The Netherlands as a predictor, together with recently published historical records of the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in Switzerland, to achieve a relative quantification of the risk. Based on these analyses, the human risk in Limburg was simulated and up to three human cases are predicted by 2018. We conclude that the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in The Netherlands might have changed from a period of negligible risk in the past to a period of increasing risk in the forthcoming years.

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Knowledge on the relative importance of alternative sources of human campylobacteriosis is important in order to implement effective disease prevention measures. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of three key exposure pathways (travelling abroad, poultry meat, pet contact) for different patient age groups in Switzerland. With a stochastic exposure model data on Campylobacter incidence for the years 2002-2007 were linked with data for the three exposure pathways and the results of a case-control study. Mean values for the population attributable fractions (PAF) over all age groups and years were 27% (95% CI 17-39) for poultry consumption, 27% (95% CI 22-32) for travelling abroad, 8% (95% CI 6-9) for pet contact and 39% (95% CI 25-50) for other risk factors. This model provided robust results when using data available for Switzerland, but the uncertainties remained high. The output of the model could be improved if more accurate input data are available to estimate the infection rate per exposure. In particular, the relatively high proportion of cases attributed to 'other risk factors' requires further attention.

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Published opinions regarding the outcomes and complications in older patients have a broad spectrum and there is a disagreement whether surgery in older patients entails a higher risk. Therefore this study examines the risk of surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis relative to age in the pooled data set of the Spine Tango registry.

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Objectives: Neurofunctional alterations are correlates of vulnerability to psychosis, as well as of the disorder itself. How these abnormalities relate to different probabilities for later transition to psychosis is unclear. We investigated vulnerability- versus disease-related versus resilience biomarkers of psychosis during working memory (WM) processing in individuals with an at-risk mental state (ARMS). Experimental design: Patients with “first-episode psychosis” (FEP, n = 21), short-term ARMS (ARMS-ST, n = 17), long-term ARMS (ARMS-LT, n = 16), and healthy controls (HC, n = 20) were investigated with an n-back WM task. We examined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data in conjunction using biological parametric mapping (BPM) toolbox. Principal observations: There were no differences in accuracy, but the FEP and the ARMS-ST group had longer reaction times compared with the HC and the ARMS-LT group. With the 2-back > 0-back contrast, we found reduced functional activation in ARMS-ST and FEP compared with the HC group in parietal and middle frontal regions. Relative to ARMS-LT individuals, FEP patients showed decreased activation in the bilateral inferior frontal gyrus and insula, and in the left prefrontal cortex. Compared with the ARMS-LT, the ARMS-ST subjects showed reduced activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus and insula. Reduced insular and prefrontal activation was associated with gray matter volume reduction in the same area in the ARMS-LT group. Conclusions: These findings suggest that vulnerability to psychosis was associated with neurofunctional alterations in fronto-temporo-parietal networks in a WM task. Neurofunctional differences within the ARMS were related to different duration of the prodromal state and resilience factors

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Biomarkers are currently best used as mechanistic "signposts" rather than as "traffic lights" in the environmental risk assessment of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs). In field studies, biomarkers of exposure [e.g., vitellogenin (VTG) induction in male fish] are powerful tools for tracking single substances and mixtures of concern. Biomarkers also provide linkage between field and laboratory data, thereby playing an important role in directing the need for and design of fish chronic tests for EDCs. It is the adverse effect end points (e.g., altered development, growth, and/or reproduction) from such tests that are most valuable for calculating adverseNOEC (no observed effect concentration) or adverseEC10 (effective concentration for a 10% response) and subsequently deriving predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs). With current uncertainties, biomarkerNOEC or biomarkerEC10 data should not be used in isolation to derive PNECs. In the future, however, there may be scope to increasingly use biomarker data in environmental decision making, if plausible linkages can be made across levels of organization such that adverse outcomes might be envisaged relative to biomarker responses. For biomarkers to fulfil their potential, they should be mechanistically relevant and reproducible (as measured by interlaboratory comparisons of the same protocol). VTG is a good example of such a biomarker in that it provides an insight to the mode of action (estrogenicity) that is vital to fish reproductive health. Interlaboratory reproducibility data for VTG are also encouraging; recent comparisons (using the same immunoassay protocol) have provided coefficients of variation (CVs) of 38-55% (comparable to published CVs of 19-58% for fish survival and growth end points used in regulatory test guidelines). While concern over environmental xenoestrogens has led to the evaluation of reproductive biomarkers in fish, it must be remembered that many substances act via diverse mechanisms of action such that the environmental risk assessment for EDCs is a broad and complex issue. Also, biomarkers such as secondary sexual characteristics, gonadosomatic indices, plasma steroids, and gonadal histology have significant potential for guiding interspecies assessments of EDCs and designing fish chronic tests. To strengthen the utility of EDC biomarkers in fish, we need to establish a historical control database (also considering natural variability) to help differentiate between statistically detectable versus biologically significant responses. In conclusion, as research continues to develop a range of useful EDC biomarkers, environmental decision-making needs to move forward, and it is proposed that the "biomarkers as signposts" approach is a pragmatic way forward in the current risk assessment of EDCs.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the influence of recipient's and donor's factors as well as surgical events on the occurrence of reperfusion injury after lung transplantation. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective study in the surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university hospital. METHODS: We collected data on 60 lung transplantation donor/recipient pairs from June 1993 to May 2001, and compared the demographic, peri- and postoperative variables of patients who experienced reperfusion injury (35%) and those who did not. RESULTS: The occurrence of high systolic pulmonary pressure immediately after transplantation and/or its persistence during the first 48[Symbol: see text]h after surgery was associated with reperfusion injury, independently of preoperative values. Reperfusion injury was associated with difficult hemostasis during transplantation (p[Symbol: see text]=[Symbol: see text]0.03). Patients with reperfusion injury were more likely to require the administration of catecholamine during the first 48[Symbol: see text]h after surgery (p[Symbol: see text]=[Symbol: see text]0.014). The extubation was delayed (p[Symbol: see text]=[Symbol: see text]0.03) and the relative odds of ICU mortality were significantly greater (OR 4.8, 95% CI: 1.06, 21.8) in patients with reperfusion injury. Our analysis confirmed that preexisting pulmonary hypertension increased the incidence of reperfusion injury (p[Symbol: see text]<[Symbol: see text]0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Difficulties in perioperative hemostasis were associated with reperfusion injury. Occurrence of reperfusion injury was associated with postoperative systolic pulmonary hypertension, longer mechanical ventilation and higher mortality. Whether early recognition and treatment of pulmonary hypertension during transplantation can prevent the occurrence of reperfusion injury needs to be investigated.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Time delays from stroke onset to arrival at the hospital are the main obstacles for widespread use of thrombolysis. In order to decrease the delays, educational campaigns try to inform the general public how to act optimally in case of stroke. To determine the content of such a campaign, we assessed the stroke knowledge in our population. METHODS: The stroke knowledge was studied by means of a closed-ended questionnaire. 422 randomly chosen inhabitants of Bern, Switzerland, were interviewed. RESULTS: The knowledge of stroke warning signs (WS) was classified as good in 64.7%. A good knowledge of stroke risk factors (RF) was noted in 6.4%. 4.2% knew both the WS and the RF of stroke indicating a very good global knowledge of stroke. Only 8.3% recognized TIA as symptoms of stroke resolving within 24 hours, and only 2.8% identified TIA as a disease requiring immediate medical help. In multivariate analysis being a woman, advancing age, and having an afflicted relative were associated with a good knowledge of WS (p = 0.048, p < 0.001 and p = 0.043). Good knowledge of RF was related to university education (p < 0.001). The good knowledge of TIA did not depend on age, sex, level of education or having an afflicted relative. CONCLUSIONS: The study brings to light relevant deficits of stroke knowledge in our population. A small number of participants could recognize TIA as stroke related symptoms resolving completely within 24 hours. Only a third of the surveyed persons would seek immediate medical help in case of TIA. The information obtained will be used in the development of future educational campaigns.

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Contracts paying a guaranteed minimum rate of return and a fraction of a positive excess rate, which is specified relative to a benchmark portfolio, are closely related to unit-linked life-insurance products and can be considered as alternatives to direct investment in the underlying benchmark. They contain an embedded power option, and the key issue is the tractable and realistic hedging of this option, in order to rigorously justify valuation by arbitrage arguments and prevent the guarantees from becoming uncontrollable liabilities to the issuer. We show how to determine the contract parameters conservatively and implement robust risk-management strategies.

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Meat and meat products can be contaminated with different species of bacteria resistant to various antimicrobials. The human health risk of a type of meat or meat product carry by emerging antimicrobial resistance depends on (i) the prevalence of contamination with resistant bacteria, (ii) the human health consequences of an infection with a specific bacterium resistant to a specific antimicrobial and (iii) the consumption volume of a specific product. The objective of this study was to compare the risk for consumers arising from their exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria from meat of four different types (chicken, pork, beef and veal), distributed in four different product categories (fresh meat, frozen meat, dried raw meat products and heat-treated meat products). A semi-quantitative risk assessment model, evaluating each food chain step, was built in order to get an estimated score for the prevalence of Campylobacter spp., Enterococcus spp. and Escherichia coli in each product category. To assess human health impact, nine combinations of bacterial species and antimicrobial agents were considered based on a published risk profile. The combination of the prevalence at retail, the human health impact and the amount of meat or product consumed, provided the relative proportion of total risk attributed to each category of product, resulting in a high, medium or low human health risk. According to the results of the model, chicken (mostly fresh and frozen meat) contributed 6.7% of the overall risk in the highest category and pork (mostly fresh meat and dried raw meat products) contributed 4.0%. The contribution of beef and veal was of 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The results were tested and discussed for single parameter changes of the model. This risk assessment was a useful tool for targeting antimicrobial resistance monitoring to those meat product categories where the expected risk for public health was greater.

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OBJECTIVES: To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome. METHODS: A total of 1061 HIV patients diagnosed with TB in four regions, Central/Northern, Southern and Eastern Europe and Argentina, between January 2004 and December 2006 were enrolled in the TB-HIV study. A weighted HCI score (range 0–5), based on independent prognostic factors identified in multivariable Cox models and the final score, included performance of TB drug susceptibility testing (DST), an initial TB regimen containing a rifamycin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide, and start of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART). RESULTS: The mean HCI score was highest in Central/Northern Europe (3.2, 95%CI 3.1–3.3) and lowest in Eastern Europe (1.6, 95%CI 1.5–1.7). The cumulative probability of death 1 year after TB diagnosis decreased from 39% (95%CI 31–48) among patients with an HCI score of 0, to 9% (95%CI 6–13) among those with a score of ≥4. In an adjusted Cox model, a 1-unit increase in the HCI score was associated with 27% reduced mortality (relative hazard 0.73, 95%CI 0.64–0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that DST, standard anti-tuberculosis treatment and early cART may improve outcome for TB-HIV patients. The proposed HCI score provides a tool for future research and monitoring of the management of TB-HIV patients. The highest HCI score may serve as a benchmark to assess TB-HIV management, encouraging continuous health care improvement.