Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

Protecting a threatened coastal fish species through regional collaboration

Rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) are small anadromous fish that live in nearshore coastal waters during much of the year and migrate to tidal rivers to spawn during the spring. They are a key prey species in marine food webs, as they are consumed by larger organisms such as striped bass, bluefish, and seabirds. In addition, smelt are valued culturally and economically, as they support important recreational and commercial fisheries. The Atlantic Coast range of rainbow smelt has been contracting in recent decades. Historically, populations extended from the Delaware River to eastern Labrador and the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Buckley 1989). More recent observations indicate that rainbow smelt spawning populations have been extirpated south of Long Island Sound, and evidence of spawning activity is extremely limited between Long Island and Cape Cod, MA. In the Gulf of Maine region, spawning runs are still observed, but monitoring surveys as well as commercial and recreational catches indicate that these populations have also declined (e.g., Chase and Childs 2001). Many diverse factors could drive the recently noted declines in rainbow smelt populations, including spawning habitat conditions, fish health, marine environmental conditions, and fishing pressure. Few studies have assessed any of these potential threats or their joint implications. In 2004, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) listed rainbow smelt as a species of concern. Subsequently, the states of Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts were awarded a grant through NMFS’s Proactive Conservation Program to gather new information on the status of rainbow smelt, identify factors that affect spawning populations, and develop a multi-state conservation program. This paper provides an overview of this collaborative project, highlighting key biological monitoring and threats assessment research that is being conducted throughout the Gulf of Maine. (PDF contains 4 pages)

The distribution and ages of regional lithologies in the lunar maria

A research program was designed (1) to map regional lithological units of the lunar surface based on measurements of spatial variations in spectral reflectance, and, (2) to establish the sequence of the formation of such lithological units from measurements of the accumulated affects of impacting bodies.

Spectral reflectance data were obtained by scanning luminance variations over the lunar surface at three wavelengths (0.4µ, 0.52µ, and 0.7µ). These luminance measurements were reduced to normalized spectral reflectance values relative to a standard area in More Serenitotis. The spectral type of each lunar area was identified from the shape of its reflectance spectrum. From these data lithological units or regions of constant color were identified. The maria fall into two major spectral classes: circular moria like More Serenitotis contain S-type or red material and thin, irregular, expansive maria like Mare Tranquillitatis contain T-type or blue material. Four distinct subtypes of S-type reflectances and two of T-type reflectances exist. As these six subtypes occur in a number of lunar regions, it is concluded that they represent specific types of material rather than some homologous set of a few end members.

The relative ages or sequence of formation of these more units were established from measurements of the accumulated impacts which have occurred since more formation. A model was developed which relates the integrated flux of particles which hove impacted a surface to the distribution of craters as functions of size and shape. Erosion of craters is caused chiefly by small bodies which produce negligible individual changes in crater shape. Hence the shape of a crater can be used to estimate the total number of small impacts that have occurred since the crater was formed. Relative ages of a surface can then be obtained from measurements of the slopes of the walls of the oldest craters formed on the surface. The results show that different maria and regions within them were emplaced at different times. An approximate absolute time scale was derived from Apollo 11 crystallization ages under an assumption of a constant rote of impacting for the last 4 x 10^9 yrs. Assuming, constant flux, the period of mare formation lasted from over 4 x 10^9 yrs to about 1.5 x 10^9 yrs ago.

A synthesis of the results of relative age measurements and of spectral reflectance mapping shows that (1) the formation of the lunar maria occurred in three stages; material of only one spectral type was deposited in each stage, (2) two distinct kinds of maria exist, each type distinguished by morphology, structure, gravity anomalies, time of formation, and spectral reflectance type, and (3) individual maria have complicated histories; they contain a variety of lithic units emplaced at different times.

Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation

25 p.

Cooperative and market-based solutions to pollution abatement problems

This work concerns itself with the possibility of solutions, both cooperative and market based, to pollution abatement problems. In particular, we are interested in pollutant emissions in Southern California and possible solutions to the abatement problems enumerated in the 1990 Clean Air Act. A tradable pollution permit program has been implemented to reduce emissions, creating property rights associated with various pollutants.

Before we discuss the performance of market-based solutions to LA's pollution woes, we consider the existence of cooperative solutions. In Chapter 2, we examine pollutant emissions as a trans boundary public bad. We show that for a class of environments in which pollution moves in a bi-directional, acyclic manner, there exists a sustainable coalition structure and associated levels of emissions. We do so via a new core concept, one more appropriate to modeling cooperative emissions agreements (and potential defection from them) than the standard definitions.

However, this leaves the question of implementing pollution abatement programs unanswered. While the existence of a cost-effective permit market equilibrium has long been understood, the implementation of such programs has been difficult. The design of Los Angeles' REgional CLean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) alleviated some of the implementation problems, and in part exacerbated them. For example, it created two overlapping cycles of permits and two zones of permits for different geographic regions. While these design features create a market that allows some measure of regulatory control, they establish a very difficult trading environment with the potential for inefficiency arising from the transactions costs enumerated above and the illiquidity induced by the myriad assets and relatively few participants in this market.

It was with these concerns in mind that the ACE market (Automated Credit Exchange) was designed. The ACE market utilizes an iterated combined-value call market (CV Market). Before discussing the performance of the RECLAIM program in general and the ACE mechanism in particular, we test experimentally whether a portfolio trading mechanism can overcome market illiquidity. Chapter 3 experimentally demonstrates the ability of a portfolio trading mechanism to overcome portfolio rebalancing problems, thereby inducing sufficient liquidity for markets to fully equilibrate.

With experimental evidence in hand, we consider the CV Market's performance in the real world. We find that as the allocation of permits reduces to the level of historical emissions, prices are increasing. As of April of this year, prices are roughly equal to the cost of the Best Available Control Technology (BACT). This took longer than expected, due both to tendencies to mis-report emissions under the old regime, and abatement technology advances encouraged by the program. Vve also find that the ACE market provides liquidity where needed to encourage long-term planning on behalf of polluting facilities.

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.

An integrated design approach to power systems : from power flows to electricity markets

Power system is at the brink of change. Engineering needs, economic forces and environmental factors are the main drivers of this change. The vision is to build a smart electrical grid and a smarter market mechanism around it to fulfill mandates on clean energy. Looking at engineering and economic issues in isolation is no longer an option today; it needs an integrated design approach. In this thesis, I shall revisit some of the classical questions on the engineering operation of power systems that deals with the nonconvexity of power flow equations. Then I shall explore some issues of the interaction of these power flow equations on the electricity markets to address the fundamental issue of market power in a deregulated market environment. Finally, motivated by the emergence of new storage technologies, I present an interesting result on the investment decision problem of placing storage over a power network. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that modern optimization and game theory can provide unique insights into this complex system. Some of the ideas carry over to applications beyond power systems.

Evolución del mercado de trabajo regional en tiempos de crisis: Madrid

Análisis de la situación laboral de la comunidad de Madrid, realizando una descripción de la evolución del panorama laboral en dicha región y comparando ésta con otros ámbitos geográficos, así como con otros contextos económicos. Utilizando datos de la EPA. Idioma: Español

Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

A média complexidade no quadro da Política Nacional de Saúde Bucal: uma abordagem do seu processo de desenvolvimento em uma perspectiva regional

Esta tese tem por objeto o processo de regionalização das ações de média complexidade e da oferta de próteses dentárias no âmbito da Política Nacional de Saúde Bucal (PNSB). Foram realizadas duas pesquisas fundamentais para o entendimento desse processo: a primeira esteve voltada para o levantamento da descrição da oferta de ações especializadas e de próteses dentárias nos Planos Diretores de Regionalização (PDR) nas 27 unidades federadas do país. A segunda pesquisa verificou a cobertura por Equipes de Saúde Bucal (ESBs) na Estratégia de Saúde da Família (ESF) e a distribuição dos 844 Centros de Especialidades Odontológicas (CEOs) e dos 526 Laboratórios Regionais de Próteses Dentárias (LRPDs) implantados até setembro de 2010 nas regiões de saúde do Brasil dos 27 estados da federação. Essas pesquisas permitiram concluir que: os PDRs, na grande maioria dos estados brasileiros, não contribuíram para a organização regionalizada da distribuição de CEOs e LRPDs no Brasil. A cobertura por Equipes de Saúde Bucal é heterogênea, com predominância da Região Nordeste e dos municípios de pequeno porte, em detrimento das capitais e dos estados das regiões Sul e Sudeste. No tocante à distribuição das unidades CEO e LRPD pelas regiões de saúde, a pesquisa mostrou que os critérios normativos para a seleção dos municípios a sediarem essas unidades vêm sendo cumpridos de forma precária na maior parte do país. Além disso, a distribuição dessas unidades não apresenta coerência com os princípios da regionalização prevista pelo Pacto de Gestão do SUS.

Regional variations in upper mantle structure beneath North America

Several types of seismological data, including surface wave group and phase velocities, travel times from large explosions, and teleseismic travel time anomalies, have indicated that there are significant regional variations in the upper few hundred kilometers of the mantle beneath continental areas. Body wave travel times and amplitudes from large chemical and nuclear explosions are used in this study to delineate the details of these variations beneath North America.

As a preliminary step in this study, theoretical P wave travel times, apparent velocities, and amplitudes have been calculated for a number of proposed upper mantle models, those of Gutenberg, Jeffreys, Lehman, and Lukk and Nersesov. These quantities have been calculated for both P and S waves for model CIT11GB, which is derived from surface wave dispersion data. First arrival times for all the models except that of Lukk and Nersesov are in close agreement, but the travel time curves for later arrivals are both qualitatively and quantitatively very different. For model CIT11GB, there are two large, overlapping regions of triplication of the travel time curve, produced by regions of rapid velocity increase near depths of 400 and 600 km. Throughout the distance range from 10 to 40 degrees, the later arrivals produced by these discontinuities have larger amplitudes than the first arrivals. The amplitudes of body waves, in fact, are extremely sensitive to small variations in the velocity structure, and provide a powerful tool for studying structural details.

Most of eastern North America, including the Canadian Shield has a Pn velocity of about 8.1 km/sec, with a nearly abrupt increase in compressional velocity by ~ 0.3 km/sec near at a depth varying regionally between 60 and 90 km. Variations in the structure of this part of the mantle are significant even within the Canadian Shield. The low-velocity zone is a minor feature in eastern North America and is subject to pronounced regional variations. It is 30 to 50 km thick, and occurs somewhere in the depth range from 80 to 160 km. The velocity decrease is less than 0.2 km/sec.

Consideration of the absolute amplitudes indicates that the attenuation due to anelasticity is negligible for 2 hz waves in the upper 200 km along the southeastern and southwestern margins of the Canadian Shield. For compressional waves the average Q for this region is > 3000. The amplitudes also indicate that the velocity gradient is at least 2 x 10^-3 both above and below the low-velocity zone, implying that the temperature gradient is < 4.8°C/km if the regions are chemically homogeneous.

In western North America, the low-velocity zone is a pronounced feature, extending to the base of the crust and having minimum velocities of 7.7 to 7.8 km/sec. Beneath the Colorado Plateau and Southern Rocky Mountains provinces, there is a rapid velocity increase of about 0.3 km/sec, similar to that observed in eastern North America, but near a depth of 100 km.

Complicated travel time curves observed on profiles with stations in both eastern and western North America can be explained in detail by a model taking into account the lateral variations in the structure of the low-velocity zone. These variations involve primarily the velocity within the zone and the depth to the top of the zone; the depth to the bottom is, for both regions, between 140 and 160 km.

The depth to the transition zone near 400 km also varies regionally, by about 30-40 km. These differences imply variations of 250 °C in the temperature or 6 % in the iron content of the mantle, if the phase transformation of olivine to the spinel structure is assumed responsible. The structural variations at this depth are not correlated with those at shallower depths, and follow no obvious simple pattern.

The computer programs used in this study are described in the Appendices. The program TTINV (Appendix IV) fits spherically symmetric earth models to observed travel time data. The method, described in Appendix III, resembles conventional least-square fitting, using partial derivatives of the travel time with respect to the model parameters to perturb an initial model. The usual ill-conditioned nature of least-squares techniques is avoided by a technique which minimizes both the travel time residuals and the model perturbations.

Spherically symmetric earth models, however, have been found inadequate to explain most of the observed travel times in this study. TVT4, a computer program that performs ray theory calculations for a laterally inhomogeneous earth model, is described in Appendix II. Appendix I gives a derivation of seismic ray theory for an arbitrarily inhomogeneous earth model.

The regulators and the regulated: fisheries management, options and dynamics in Kenya's Lake Victoria fishery

The study divides the history of the fishery into five 'regulatory periods': the pre-colonial fishery (pre-1901), the colonial fishery (1901-1963), the post indipendence fishery (1963-1980), the Nile perch 'boom' years (1980-1989), and finally the fishery in the 1990's. Within each of these periods, the nature of and the relationship between, formal and informal regulations differs and changes with time. In the pre-colonial period, the outcome of formal and informal regulations largely sustained the fishery in a productive and species diverse state. However, at no time since then have formal regulations worked, with the result that the nature of production from the fishery changes over time and is dependent on a number of factors, amongst which the most important are effort level increases, technological introductions, species introductions, changes in regional and national job markets, the change from community-based controls to state-based controls within the fishery, and finally, considerable changes to the fish markets.

A harmonização do direito penal econômico em face da integração regional na África Austral

A dissertação analisa as possibilidades e apresenta os pressupostos para harmonização do Direito Penal Económico na África Austral. Nela trabalha-se com a hipótese de que o referido processo é inexorável no âmbito da integração regional. Para o efeito, são abordadas questões criminologicas, exigências político-criminais bem como dogmáticas que permitam propor a referida harmonização legislativas, na perspectiva do direito a constituir. É destacada a pertinência de se empreenderem reformas nas legislações penais dos Estados-membros, com vista a atender aos ilícitos econômicos, considerando que a acentuada disparidade legislativa é um factor que, de certa forma, pode cercear as acções que têm sido realizadas no âmbito da prevenção e combate a criminalidade econômica na região. Disserta-se sobre as peculiaridades do delinquente e especificidades da delinquência econômica ao nível da SADC e, seguidamente, se descreve a forma de concretização da almejada harmonização, tendo como base dois estudos realizados sobre a matéria e igual número de modelos, os quais priorizam dois eixos, designadamente: o eixo dos delitos e o das penas; sendo que no primeiro descata-se a necessidade de uniformizar não só as condutas delituosas a tipificar, mas, sobretudo a técnica para sua tipificação. Como segundo eixo, aborda-se a pertinência de se aproximar as medidas de reação penal as sanções penais. Por fim, em sede da conclusão realça-se a existência de fundamentos e requisitos dogmáticos, político-criminais e criminológicos que permitem realizar a harmonização do Direito penal econômico na SADC, como medida necessária para a prevenção e represão da criminalidade econômica transnacional, intrínsecamente ligada aos processos da globalização e de integração regional em curso.

Crecimiento y rentabilidad en el mercado emergente brasileño

[ES] En los últimos años, las economías emergentes están tomando las primeras posiciones a nivel mundial. Las consecuencias de la crisis financiera han provocado que inversores y empresas dirijan sus capitales y esfuerzo hacia los mercados emergentes en busca de crecimiento y rentabilidad empresarial que los países desarrollados no ofrecen. En este contexto, el objetivo del presente estudio consiste en analizar el crecimiento empresarial en Brasil durante el periodo 1995-2011 y, más específicamente, sus variables explicativas y la interrelación con la rentabilidad empresarial. Para ello, en primer lugar realizamos la estimación de un modelo de regresión dinámico con datos de panel empleando el Método Generalizado de los Momentos (GMM). En segundo lugar, empleamos un sistema de Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR) para analizar la relación entre crecimiento y rentabilidad. Los principales resultados obtenidos nos indican que la obtención de mayores tasas de rentabilidad proporcionan un mayor crecimiento empresarial, pero no al contrario. Además cabe señalar que el comportamiento del crecimiento empresarial es diferente según la propiedad y el control de las empresas. Además, aportan un mayor conocimiento del comportamiento del crecimiento empresarial en Brasil, siendo útil para la toma de decisiones de empresarios e inversores, y así pueden ser utilizados para la toma de decisiones en el ámbito de la política regional y social.

Avaliação regional da contaminação por hidrocarbonetos policíclicos aromáticos (HPAs) na região costeira do sudeste do Brasil usando mexilhões (Perna perna Linneaus 1758) como biomonitores

O objetivo do presente trabalho foi avaliar a presença e a distribuição de hidrocarbonetos policíclicos aromáticos (HPAs) em mexilhões coletados em 23 estações, divididas em três regiões: (i) cultivos localizados no Estado do Rio de Janeiro (7 estações) e em Ubatuba/SP (1 estação); (ii) áreas costeiras no Estado do Rio de Janeiro (7 estações) e (iii) na Baía de Guanabara/RJ (8 estações). Os HPAs foram determinados em triplicata de cada estação, sendo cada réplica formada por uma média de 10 indivíduos, através de cromatografia em fase gasosa acoplada a espectrometria de massas (GC/MS), totalizando 38 compostos entre parentais e alquilados. A concentração média do total de HPAs nos cultivos, excluindo o cultivo de Mombaça (Ilha Grande), foi de 24,7 22,3 ng g-1, para as áreas costeiras foi de 89,7 25,8 ng g-1 e para a Baía de Guanabara, 760,9 456,3 ng g-1. Esses resultados indicam que os cultivos (exceto Mombaça) e as áreas costeiras selecionadas apresentam baixos níveis de contaminação. Já na Baía de Guanabara, os resultados foram comparáveis a dados pretéritos e confirmam o estado de degradação ambiental da baía. Na amostra coletada no cultivo de Mombaça, a alta concentração do total de HPAs (584 ng g-1) e a predominância de compostos alquilados sobre parentais sugerem contaminação relativamente alta por hidrocarbonetos petrogênicos. A análise de agrupamento, considerando o total de HPAs, confirmou a separação entre as três áreas coletadas, mas com algumas exceções: (i) o cultivo de Mombaça assemelha-se ao grupo da Baía de Guanabara; (ii) a estação da Praia Vermelha, na saída da Baía de Guanabara, se assemelha com áreas costeiras fora da baía; (iii) as estações Ilha Redonda, Ilha Comprida e Pontal, distantes mais de 5 km da costa, se agruparam com os cultivos. Somente nas amostras da Baía de Guanabara foi possível avaliar a origem dos HPAs através da análise de componentes principais (PCA). A maioria das amostras da baía apresenta contaminação por fontes mistas de hidrocarbonetos, e apenas na praia Vermelha o aporte pirolítico é mais significativo. Por fim, ressalta-se que os níveis de HPAs nos mexilhões das três áreas ficaram abaixo de valores de referência exigidos internacionalmente para o consumo humano. No entanto, é necessário uma análise de risco específica para melhor compreender a qualidade do mexilhão para consumo humano, particularmente os da Baía de Guanabara.