装配系统中缓冲区容量的研究

为了确定装配系统中的缓冲区容量,在建立缓冲区状态数学模型的基础上,根据随机过程的原理,提出了缓冲区被充满概率和缓冲区容量之间的函数关系。以缓冲区被充满概率最小化为目标,确定合理的缓冲区容量。最后给出一种递进算法,通过回归方程计算缓冲区对装配工位生产率的影响,逐步求出由多个工位组成的整个装配系统各个工位之间的缓冲区容量。

Prediction of soil adsorption coefficients from retention parameters on three reversed-phase liquid chromatographic columns

Reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatographic (RP-HPLC) retention parameters, which are determined by the intermolecular interactions in retention process, can be considered as the chemical molecular descriptors in linear free energy relationships (LFERs). On the basis of the characterization and comparison of octadecyl-bonded silica gel (ODS), cyano-bonded silica gel (CN), and phenyl-bonded silica gel (Ph) columns with linear solvation energy relationships (LSERs), a new multiple linear regression model using RP-HPLC retention parameters on ODS and CN columns as variables for estimation of soil adsorption coefficients was developed. It was tested on a set of reference substances from various chemical classes. The results showed that the multicolumn method was more promising than a single-column method was for the estimation of soil adsorption coefficients. The accuracy of the suggested model is identical with that of LSERs.

对癌症生存者应对资源的研究

A survey study of cancer survivors was conducted to explore the coping resources, which buffers the life of cancer survivors against stressful situation. Participants reported coping strategies, positive affect and negative affect, personality, perceived social support, fighting spirit and helpless/hopeless as well as quality of life through a set of self-assessment questionnaire. The results indicated that the frequency of coping strategies used by cancer survivors from high to low were: growing, problem solving, seeking support,self-controlling, wishful thinking, and distancing. The correlational analysis indicated that among the six sets of coping strategies, growing was positively correlated most strongly with most of the dimensions in quality of life as well as positive affect. Among the five personality, Neuroticism was positively correlated most strongly with helpless/hopeless and negative affect; and was negatively correlated most strongly with fighting spirit and positive affect. Extraversion was positively correlated most strongly with positive affect and negatively correlated most strongly with helpless/hopeless; Agreeableness was negatively correlated most strongly with negative affect; Conscientiousness was positively correlated most strongly with fighting spirit. Subjects with higher score in quality of life reported higher frequency of coping strategies in growing and problem solving and less in wishful thinking. They also reported higher scores in Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness as well as lower scores in Neuroticism. The regression analysis displayed that not negative affect but positive affect entered the regression model when all the psychological and social variables in the study were accounted for. Taken together, these data suggested that, growing was the most effective coping strategy among the six sets of strategies for cancer survivors to improve quality of life, to maintain positive affect and to enhance fighting spirit. Neuroticism was vulnerable to resist stressors; Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness were stress-resisted factors. Positive affect may has more adaptational significance than negative affect during chronic stress. These data also implicated that positive affect should be paid more attention to in coping research.

Pressure support versus T-tube for weaning from mechanical ventilation in adults

BackgroundMechanical ventilation is important in caring for patients with critical illness. Clinical complications, increased mortality, and high costs of health care are associated with prolonged ventilatory support or premature discontinuation of mechanical ventilation. Weaning refers to the process of gradually or abruptly withdrawing mechanical ventilation. the weaning process begins after partial or complete resolution of the underlying pathophysiology precipitating respiratory failure and ends with weaning success (successful extubation in intubated patients or permanent withdrawal of ventilatory support in tracheostomized patients).ObjectivesTo evaluate the effectiveness and safety of two strategies, a T-tube and pressure support ventilation, for weaning adult patients with respiratory failure that required invasive mechanical ventilation for at least 24 hours, measuring weaning success and other clinically important outcomes.Search methodsWe searched the following electronic databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2012, Issue 6); MEDLINE (via PubMed) (1966 to June 2012); EMBASE (January 1980 to June 2012); LILACS (1986 to June 2012); CINAHL (1982 to June 2012); SciELO (from 1997 to August 2012); thesis repository of CAPES (Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior) (http://capesdw.capes.gov.br/capesdw/) (August 2012); and Current Controlled Trials (August 2012).We reran the search in December 2013. We will deal with any studies of interest when we update the review.Selection criteriaWe included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared a T-tube with pressure support (PS) for the conduct of spontaneous breathing trials and as methods of gradual weaning of adult patients with respiratory failure of various aetiologies who received invasive mechanical ventilation for at least 24 hours.Data collection and analysisTwo authors extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. Meta-analyses using the random-effects model were conducted for nine outcomes. Relative risk (RR) and mean difference (MD) or standardized mean difference (SMD) were used to estimate the treatment effect, with 95% confidence intervals (CI).Main resultsWe included nine RCTs with 1208 patients; 622 patients were randomized to a PS spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) and 586 to a T-tube SBT. the studies were classified into three categories of weaning: simple, difficult, and prolonged. Four studies placed patients in two categories of weaning. Pressure support ventilation (PSV) and a T-tube were used directly as SBTs in four studies (844 patients, 69.9% of the sample). in 186 patients (15.4%) both interventions were used along with gradual weaning from mechanical ventilation; the PS was gradually decreased, twice a day, until it was minimal and periods with a T-tube were gradually increased to two and eight hours for patients with difficult and prolonged weaning. in two studies (14.7% of patients) the PS was lowered to 2 to 4 cm H2O and 3 to 5 cm H2O based on ventilatory parameters until the minimal PS levels were reached. PS was then compared to the trial with the T-tube (TT).We identified 33 different reported outcomes in the included studies; we took 14 of them into consideration and performed meta-analyses on nine. With regard to the sequence of allocation generation, allocation concealment, selective reporting and attrition bias, no study presented a high risk of bias. We found no clear evidence of a difference between PS and TT for weaning success (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.17, 9 studies, low quality of evidence), intensive care unit (ICU) mortality (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.23, 5 studies, low quality of evidence), reintubation (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.26, 7 studies, low quality evidence), ICU and long-term weaning unit (LWU) length of stay (MD -7.08 days, 95% CI -16.26 to 2.1, 2 studies, low quality of evidence) and pneumonia (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.08 to 5.85, 2 studies, low quality of evidence). PS was significantly superior to the TT for successful SBTs (RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.17, 4 studies, moderate quality of evidence). Four studies reported on weaning duration, however we were unable to combined the study data because of differences in how the studies presented their data. One study was at high risk of other bias and four studies were at high risk for detection bias. Three studies reported that the weaning duration was shorter with PS, and in one study the duration was shorter in patients with a TT.Authors' conclusionsTo date, we have found evidence of generally low quality from studies comparing pressure support ventilation (PSV) and with a T-tube. the effects on weaning success, ICU mortality, reintubation, ICU and LWU length of stay, and pneumonia were imprecise. However, PSV was more effective than a T-tube for successful spontaneous breathing trials (SBTs) among patients with simple weaning. Based on the findings of single trials, three studies presented a shorter weaning duration in the group undergoing PS SBT, however a fourth study found a shorter weaning duration with a T-tube.

Prevalence of overweight and obesity among nurses in Scotland: A cross-sectional study using the Scottish Health Survey.

Background Increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity represents a global pandemic. As the largest occupational group in international healthcare systems nurses are at the forefront of health promotion to address this pandemic. However, nurses own health behaviours are known to influence the extent to which they engage in health promotion and the public's confidence in advice offered. Estimating the prevalence of overweight and obesity among nurses is therefore important. However, to date, prevalence estimates have been based on non-representative samples and internationally no studies have compared prevalence of overweight and obesity among nurses to other healthcare professionals using representative data. Objectives To estimate overweight and obesity prevalence among nurses in Scotland, and compare to other healthcare professionals and those working in non-heath related occupations. Design Cross-sectional study using a nationally representative sample of five aggregated annual rounds (2008-2012) of the Scottish Health Survey. Setting Scotland. Participants: 13,483 adults aged 17 to 65 indicating they had worked in the past 4 weeks, classified in four occupational groups: nurses (n = 411), other healthcare professionals (n = 320), unqualified care staff (n = 685), and individuals employed in non-health related occupations (n = 12,067). Main outcome measures: Prevalence of overweight and obesity defined as Body Mass Index ≥ 25.0. Methods Estimates of overweight and obesity prevalence in each occupational group were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI). A logistic regression model was then built to compare the odds of being overweight or obese with not being overweight or obese for nurses in comparison to the other occupational categories. Data were analysed using SAS 9.1.3. Results 69.1% (95% CI 64.6,73.6) of Scottish nurses were overweight or obese. Prevalence of overweight and obesity was higher in nurses than other healthcare professionals (51.3%, CI 45.8,56.7), unqualified care staff (68.5%, CI 65.0,72.0) and those in non-health related occupations (68.9%, CI 68.1,69.7). A logistic regression model adjusted for socio-demographic composition indicated that, compared to nurses, the odds of being overweight or obese was statistically significantly lower for other healthcare professionals (Odds Ratio [OR] 0.45, CI 0.33,0.61) and those in non-health related occupations (OR 0.78, CI 0.62,0.97). Conclusions Prevalence of overweight and obesity among Scottish nurses is worryingly high, and significantly higher than those in other healthcare professionals and non-health related occupations. High prevalence of overweight and obesity potentially harms nurses’ own health and hampers the effectiveness of nurses’ health promotion role. Interventions are therefore urgently required to address overweight and obesity among the Scottish nursing workforce.

Human papillomavirus detection in women with and without human immunodeficiency virus infection in Colombia

Background: HIV infection leads to a decreasing immune response, thereby facilitating the appearance of other infections, one of the most important ones being HPV. However, studies are needed for determining associations between immunodeficiency caused by HIV and/or the presence of HPV during the course of cervical lesions and their degree of malignancy. This study describes the cytological findings revealed by the Papanicolaou test, laboratory characteristics and HPV molecular profile in women with and without HIV infection. Methods: A total of 216 HIV-positive and 1,159 HIV-negative women were invited to participate in the study; PCR was used for the molecular detection of HPV in cervical samples. Statistical analysis (such as percentages, Chi-square test and Fisher's exact test when applicable) determined human papillomavirus (HPV) infection frequency (single and multiple) and the distribution of six types of high-risk-HPV in women with and without HIV infection. Likewise, a logistic regression model was run to evaluate the relationship between HIV-HPV infection and different risk factors. Results: An association was found between the frequency of HPV infection and infection involving 2 or more HPV types (also known as multiple HPV infection) in HIV-positive women (69.0% and 54.2%, respectively); such frequency was greater than that found in HIV-negative women (44.3% and 22.7%, respectively). Statistically significant differences were observed between both groups (p = 0.001) regarding HPV presence (both in infection and multiple HPV infection). HPV-16 was the most prevalent type in the population being studied (p = 0.001); other viral types had variable distribution in both groups (HIV-positive and HIV-negative). HPV detection was associated with <500 cell/mm(3) CD4-count (p = 0.004) and higher HIV-viral-load (p = 0.001). HPV-DNA detection, <200 cell/mm(3) CD4-count (p = 0.001), and higher HIV-viral-load (p = 0.001) were associated with abnormal cytological findings. Conclusions: The HIV-1 positive population in this study had high multiple HPV infection prevalence. The results for this population group also suggested a greater association between HPV-DNA presence and cytological findings. HPV detection, together with low CD4 count, could represent useful tools for identifying HIV-positive women at risk of developing cervical lesions.

Baseline health-related quality-of-life data as prognostic factors in a phase III multicentre study of women with metastatic breast cancer.

The potential value of baseline health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) and clinical factors in predicting prognosis was examined using data from an international randomised phase III trial which compared doxorubicin and paclitaxel with doxorubicin and cylophosphamide as first line chemotherapy in 275 women with metastatic breast cancer. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-C30 and the related breast module (QLQ-BR23) were used to assess baseline HRQOL data. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used for both univariate and multivariate analyses of survival. In the univariate analyses, performance status (P<0.001) and number of sites involved (P=0.001) were the most important clinical prognostic factors. The HRQOL variables at baseline most strongly associated with longer survival were better appetite, physical and role functioning, as well as less fatigue (P<0.001). The final multivariate model retained performance status (P<0.001) and appetite loss (P=0.005) as the variables best predicting survival. Substantial loss of appetite was the only independent HRQOL factor predicting poor survival and was strongly correlated (/r/>0.5) with fatigue, role and physical functioning. In addition to known clinical factors, appetite loss appears to be a significant prognostic factor for survival in women with metastatic breast cancer. However, the mechanism underlying this association remains to be precisely defined in future studies.

Aging African American Women and the Impact of Positive Psychological Factors on Quality of Life

Aging African-American women are disproportionately affected by negative health outcomes and mortality. Life stress has strong associations with these health outcomes. The purpose of this research was to understand how aging African American women manage stress. Specifically, the effects of coping, optimism, resilience, and religiousness as it relates to quality of life were examined. This cross-sectional exploratory study used a self-administered questionnaire and examined quality of life in 182 African-American women who were 65 years of age or older living in senior residential centers in Baltimore using convenience sampling. The age range for these women was 65 to 94 years with a mean of 71.8 years (SD = 5.6). The majority (53.1%) of participants completed high school, with 23 percent (N = 42) obtaining college degrees and 19 percent (N = 35) holding advanced degrees. Nearly 58 percent of participants were widowed and 81 percent were retired. In addition to demographics, the questionnaire included the following reliable and valid survey instruments: The Brief Cope Scale (Carver, Scheier, & Weintraub, 1989), Optimism Questionnaire (Scheier, Carver, & Bridges, 1994), Resilience Survey (Wagnild & Young, 1987), Religiousness Assessment (Koenig, 1997), and Quality of Life Questionnaire (Cummins, 1996). Results revealed that the positive psychological factors examined were positively associated with and significant predictors of quality of life. The bivariate correlations indicated that of the six coping dimensions measured in this study, planning (r=.68) was the most positively associated with quality of life. Optimism (r=.33), resilience (=.48), and religiousness (r=.30) were also significantly correlated with quality of life. In the linear regression model, again the coping dimension of planning was the best predictor of quality of life (beta = .75, p <.001). Optimism (beta = .31, p <.001), resilience (beta = .34, p, .001) and religiousness (beta = .17, p <.01) were also significant predictors of quality of life. It appears as if positive psychology plays an important role in improving quality of life among aging African-American women.

Gender differences in the risk of HIV infection among persons reporting abstinence, monogamy, and multiple sexual partners in northern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Monogamy, together with abstinence, partner reduction, and condom use, is widely advocated as a key behavioral strategy to prevent HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the association between the number of sexual partners and the risk of HIV seropositivity among men and women presenting for HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) in northern Tanzania. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Clients presenting for HIV VCT at a community-based AIDS service organization in Moshi, Tanzania were surveyed between November 2003 and December 2007. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, reasons for testing, sexual behaviors, and symptoms were collected. Men and women were categorized by number of lifetime sexual partners, and rates of seropositivity were reported by category. Factors associated with HIV seropositivity among monogamous males and females were identified by a multivariate logistic regression model. Of 6,549 clients, 3,607 (55%) were female, and the median age was 30 years (IQR 24-40). 939 (25%) females and 293 (10%) males (p<0.0001) were HIV seropositive. Among 1,244 (34%) monogamous females and 423 (14%) monogamous males, the risk of HIV infection was 19% and 4%, respectively (p<0.0001). The risk increased monotonically with additional partners up to 45% (p<0.001) and 15% (p<0.001) for women and men, respectively with 5 or more partners. In multivariate analysis, HIV seropositivity among monogamous women was most strongly associated with age (p<0.0001), lower education (p<0.004), and reporting a partner with other partners (p = 0.015). Only age was a significant risk factor for monogamous men (p = 0.0004). INTERPRETATION: Among women presenting for VCT, the number of partners is strongly associated with rates of seropositivity; however, even women reporting lifetime monogamy have a high risk for HIV infection. Partner reduction should be coupled with efforts to place tools in the hands of sexually active women to reduce their risk of contracting HIV.

Bacteria localization and chorion thinning among preterm premature rupture of membranes.

OBJECTIVE: Bacterial colonization of the fetal membranes and its role in pathogenesis of membrane rupture is poorly understood. Prior retrospective work revealed chorion layer thinning in preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) subjects. Our objective was to prospectively examine fetal membrane chorion thinning and to correlate to bacterial presence in PPROM, preterm, and term subjects. STUDY DESIGN: Paired membrane samples (membrane rupture and membrane distant) were prospectively collected from: PPROM = 14, preterm labor (PTL = 8), preterm no labor (PTNL = 8), term labor (TL = 10), and term no labor (TNL = 8), subjects. Sections were probed with cytokeratin to identify fetal trophoblast layer of the chorion using immunohistochemistry. Fluorescence in situ hybridization was performed using broad range 16 s ribosomal RNA probe. Images were evaluated, chorion and choriodecidua were measured, and bacterial fluorescence scored. Chorion thinning and bacterial presence were compared among and between groups using Student's t-test, linear mixed effect model, and Poisson regression model (SAS Cary, NC). RESULTS: In all groups, the fetal chorion cellular layer was thinner at rupture compared to distant site (147.2 vs. 253.7 µm, p<0.0001). Further, chorion thinning was greatest among PPROM subjects compared to all other groups combined, regardless of site sampled [PPROM(114.9) vs. PTL(246.0) vs. PTNL(200.8) vs. TL(217.9) vs. TNL(246.5)]. Bacteria counts were highest among PPROM subjects compared to all other groups regardless of site sampled or histologic infection [PPROM(31) vs. PTL(9) vs. PTNL(7) vs. TL(7) vs. TNL(6)]. Among all subjects at both sites, bacterial counts were inversely correlated with chorion thinning, even excluding histologic chorioamnionitis (p<0.0001 and p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Fetal chorion was uniformly thinner at rupture site compared to distant sites. In PPROM fetal chorion, we demonstrated pronounced global thinning. Although cause or consequence is uncertain, bacterial presence is greatest and inversely correlated with chorion thinning among PPROM subjects.

Antisense Gene Silencing and Bacteriophages as Novel Disinfection Processes for Engineered Systems

The growth and proliferation of invasive bacteria in engineered systems is an ongoing problem. While there are a variety of physical and chemical processes to remove and inactivate bacterial pathogens, there are many situations in which these tools are no longer effective or appropriate for the treatment of a microbial target. For example, certain strains of bacteria are becoming resistant to commonly used disinfectants, such as chlorine and UV. Additionally, the overuse of antibiotics has contributed to the spread of antibiotic resistance, and there is concern that wastewater treatment processes are contributing to the spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria.

Due to the continually evolving nature of bacteria, it is difficult to develop methods for universal bacterial control in a wide range of engineered systems, as many of our treatment processes are static in nature. Still, invasive bacteria are present in many natural and engineered systems, where the application of broad acting disinfectants is impractical, because their use may inhibit the original desired bioprocesses. Therefore, to better control the growth of treatment resistant bacteria and to address limitations with the current disinfection processes, novel tools that are both specific and adaptable need to be developed and characterized.

In this dissertation, two possible biological disinfection processes were investigated for use in controlling invasive bacteria in engineered systems. First, antisense gene silencing, which is the specific use of oligonucleotides to silence gene expression, was investigated. This work was followed by the investigation of bacteriophages (phages), which are viruses that are specific to bacteria, in engineered systems.


For the antisense gene silencing work, a computational approach was used to quantify the number of off-targets and to determine the effects of off-targets in prokaryotic organisms. For the organisms of Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 and Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv the mean number of off-targets was found to be 15.0 + 13.2 and 38.2 + 61.4, respectively, which results in a reduction of greater than 90% of the effective oligonucleotide concentration. It was also demonstrated that there was a high variability in the number of off-targets over the length of a gene, but that on average, there was no general gene location that could be targeted to reduce off-targets. Therefore, this analysis needs to be performed for each gene in question. It was also demonstrated that the thermodynamic binding energy between the oligonucleotide and the mRNA accounted for 83% of the variation in the silencing efficiency, compared to the number of off-targets, which explained 43% of the variance of the silencing efficiency. This suggests that optimizing thermodynamic parameters must be prioritized over minimizing the number of off-targets. In conclusion for the antisense work, these results suggest that off-target hybrids can account for a greater than 90% reduction in the concentration of the silencing oligonucleotides, and that the effective concentration can be increased through the rational design of silencing targets by minimizing off-target hybrids.

Regarding the work with phages, the disinfection rates of bacteria in the presence of phages was determined. The disinfection rates of E. coli K12 MG1655 in the presence of coliphage Ec2 ranged up to 2 h-1, and were dependent on both the initial phage and bacterial concentrations. Increasing initial phage concentrations resulted in increasing disinfection rates, and generally, increasing initial bacterial concentrations resulted in increasing disinfection rates. However, disinfection rates were found to plateau at higher bacterial and phage concentrations. A multiple linear regression model was used to predict the disinfection rates as a function of the initial phage and bacterial concentrations, and this model was able to explain 93% of the variance in the disinfection rates. The disinfection rates were also modeled with a particle aggregation model. The results from these model simulations suggested that at lower phage and bacterial concentrations there are not enough collisions to support active disinfection rates, which therefore, limits the conditions and systems where phage based bacterial disinfection is possible. Additionally, the particle aggregation model over predicted the disinfection rates at higher phage and bacterial concentrations of 108 PFU/mL and 108 CFU/mL, suggesting other interactions were occurring at these higher concentrations. Overall, this work highlights the need for the development of alternative models to more accurately describe the dynamics of this system at a variety of phage and bacterial concentrations. Finally, the minimum required hydraulic residence time was calculated for a continuous stirred-tank reactor and a plug flow reactor (PFR) as a function of both the initial phage and bacterial concentrations, which suggested that phage treatment in a PFR is theoretically possible.

In addition to determining disinfection rates, the long-term bacterial growth inhibition potential was determined for a variety of phages with both Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria. It was determined, that on average, phages can be used to inhibit bacterial growth for up to 24 h, and that this effect was concentration dependent for various phages at specific time points. Additionally, it was found that a phage cocktail was no more effective at inhibiting bacterial growth over the long-term than the best performing phage in isolation.

Finally, for an industrial application, the use of phages to inhibit invasive Lactobacilli in ethanol fermentations was investigated. It was demonstrated that phage 8014-B2 can achieve a greater than 3-log inactivation of Lactobacillus plantarum during a 48 h fermentation. Additionally, it was shown that phages can be used to protect final product yields and maintain yeast viability. Through modeling the fermentation system with differential equations it was determined that there was a 10 h window in the beginning of the fermentation run, where the addition of phages can be used to protect final product yields, and after 20 h no additional benefit of the phage addition was observed.

In conclusion, this dissertation improved the current methods for designing antisense gene silencing targets for prokaryotic organisms, and characterized phages from an engineering perspective. First, the current design strategy for antisense targets in prokaryotic organisms was improved through the development of an algorithm that minimized the number of off-targets. For the phage work, a framework was developed to predict the disinfection rates in terms of the initial phage and bacterial concentrations. In addition, the long-term bacterial growth inhibition potential of multiple phages was determined for several bacteria. In regard to the phage application, phages were shown to protect both final product yields and yeast concentrations during fermentation. Taken together, this work suggests that the rational design of phage treatment is possible and further work is needed to expand on this foundation.

Discounting the distant future: How much do uncertain rates increase valuations?

We demonstrate that when the future path of the discount rate is uncertain and highly correlated, the distant future should be discounted at significantly lower rates than suggested by the current rate. We then use two centuries of US interest rate data to quantify this effect. Using both random walk and mean-reverting models, we compute the "certainty-equivalent rate" that summarizes the effect of uncertainty and measures the appropriate forward rate of discount in the future. Under the random walk model we find that the certainty-equivalent rate falls continuously from 4% to 2% after 100 years, 1% after 200 years, and 0.5% after 300 years. At horizons of 400 years, the discounted value increases by a factor of over 40,000 relative to conventional discounting. Applied to climate change mitigation, we find that incorporating discount rate uncertainty almost doubles the expected present value of mitigation benefits. © 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Preoperative pain level and patient expectation predict hospital length of stay after total hip arthroplasty.

The purpose of this study was to identify preoperative predictors of length of stay after primary total hip arthroplasty in a patient population reflecting current trends toward shorter hospitalization and using readily obtainable factors that do not require scoring systems. A retrospective review of 112 consecutive patients was performed. High preoperative pain level and patient expectation of discharge to extended care facilities (ECFs) were the only significant multivariable predictors of hospitalization extending beyond 2 days (P=0.001 and P<0.001 respectively). Patient expectation remained significant after adjusting for Medicare's 3-day requirement for discharge to ECFs (P<0.001). The study was adequately powered to analyze the variables in the multivariable logistic regression model, which had a concordance index of 0.857.

Patient expectation is the most important predictor of discharge destination after primary total joint arthroplasty.

The purpose of this study was to identify preoperative predictors of discharge destination after total joint arthroplasty. A retrospective study of three hundred and seventy-two consecutive patients who underwent primary total hip and knee arthroplasty was performed. The mean length of stay was 2.9 days and 29.0% of patients were discharged to extended care facilities. Age, caregiver support at home, and patient expectation of discharge destination were the only significant multivariable predictors regardless of the type of surgery (total knee versus total hip arthroplasty). Among those variables, patient expectation was the most important predictor (P < 0.001; OR 169.53). The study was adequately powered to analyze the variables in the multivariable logistic regression model, which had a high concordance index of 0.969.

Preoperative predictors of extended hospital length of stay following total knee arthroplasty.

The purpose of this study was to identify the preoperative predictors of hospital length of stay after primary total knee arthroplasty in a patient population reflecting current trends toward shorter hospitalization and using readily obtainable factors that do not require scoring systems. A single-center, multi-surgeon retrospective chart review of two hundred and sixty consecutive patients who underwent primary total knee arthroplasty was performed. The mean length of stay was 3.0 days. Among the different variables studied, increasing comorbidities, lack of adequate assistance at home, and bilateral surgery were the only multivariable significant predictors of longer length of stay. The study was adequately powered for statistical analyses and the concordance index of the multivariable logistic regression model was 0.815.