Incremental Prognostic Value of Myocardial Blood Flow Quantification with Rb-82 Cardiac PET in Patients With Known or Suspected CAD

Rb-82cardiac PET has been used to non-invasively assess myocardial blood flow (MBF)and myocardial flow reserve (MFR). The impact of MBF and MFR for predictingmajor adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has not been investigated in aprospective study, which was our aim. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In total, 280patients (65±10y, 36% women) with known or suspected CAD were prospectivelyenrolled. They all underwent both a rest and adenosine stress Rb-82 cardiacPET/CT. Dynamic acquisitions were processed with the FlowQuant 2.1.3 softwareand analyzed semi-quantitatively (SSS, SDS) and quantitatively (MBF, MFR) andreported using the 17-segment AHA model. Patients were stratified based on SDS,stress MBF and MFR and allocated into tertiles. For each group, annualizedevent rates were computed by dividing the number of annualized MACE (cardiacdeath, myocardial infarction, revascularisation or hospitalisation forcardiac-related event) by the sum of individual follow-up periods in years.Outcome were analysed for each group using Kaplan-Meier event-free survivalcurves and compared using the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis wasperformed in a stepwise fashion using Cox proportional hazards regressionmodels (p<0.05 for model inclusion). RESULTS: In a median follow-up of 256days (range 168-440d), 44 MACE were observed. Ischemia (SDS≥2) was observed in95 patients who had higher annualized MACE rate as compared to those without(55% vs. 9.8%, p<0.0001). The group with the lowest MFR tertile (MFR<1.76)had higher MACE rate than the two highest tertiles (51% vs. 9% and 14%,p<0.0001). Similarly, the group with the lowest stress MBF tertile(MBF<1.78mL/min/g) had the highest annualized MACE rate (41% vs. 26% and 6%,p=0.0002). On multivariate analysis, the addition of MFR or stress MBF to SDSsignificantly increased the global χ2 (from 56 to 60, p=0.04; and from56 to 63, p=0.01). The best prognostic power was obtained in a model combiningSDS (p<0.001) and stress MBF (p=0.01). Interestingly, the integration ofstress MBF enhanced risk stratification even in absence of ischemia.CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of MBF or MFR in Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT providesindependent and incremental prognostic information over semi-quantitativeassessment with SDS and is of value for risk stratification.

Psychiatric Status across Body Mass Index in a Mediterranean Spanish Population.

BACKGROUND Mental and body weight disorders are among the major global health challenges, and their comorbidity may play an important role in treatment and prevention of both pathologies. A growing number of studies have examined the relationship between psychiatric status and body weight, but our knowledge is still limited. OBJECTIVE The present study aims to investigate the cross-sectional relationships of psychiatric status and body mass index (BMI) in Málaga, a Mediterranean city in the South of Spain. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of 563 participants were recruited from those who came to his primary care physician, using a systematic random sampling, non-proportional stratified by BMI categories. Structured clinical interviews were used to assess current Axes-I and II mental disorders according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision (DSM-IV-TR). BMI was calculated as weight (Kg) divided by square of height in meters (m2). Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between BMI and the presence of any mental disorder. BMI was introduced in the models using restricted cubic splines. RESULTS We found that high BMI values were directly associated with mood and adjustment disorders, and low BMI values were directly associated with avoidant and dependent personality disorders (PDs). We observed an inverse relationship between low BMI values and cluster A PDs. There were not significant relationships between anxiety or substance-related disorders and BMI. CONCLUSION Psychiatric status and BMI are related in a Mediterranean Spanish population. A multidisciplinary approach to both pathologies becomes increasingly more necessary.

Association of alcohol consumption and HIV surrogate markers in participants of the swiss HIV cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption may affect the course of HIV infection and/or antiretroviral therapy (ART). The authors investigated the association between self-reported alcohol consumption and HIV surrogate markers in both treated and untreated individuals. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: Over a 7-year period, the authors analyzed 2 groups of individuals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: (1) ART-naïve individuals remaining off ART and (2) individuals initiating first ART. For individuals initiating first ART, time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between alcohol consumption, virological failure, and ART interruption. For both groups, trajectories of log-transformed CD4 cell counts were analyzed using linear mixed models with repeated measures. RESULTS: The authors included 2982 individuals initiating first ART and 2085 ART naives. In individuals initiating first ART, 241 (8%) experienced virological failure. Alcohol consumption was not associated with virological failure. ART interruption was noted in 449 (15%) individuals and was more prevalent in severe compared with none/light health risk drinkers [hazard ratio: 2.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.42 to 3.52]. The association remained significant even after adjusting for nonadherence. The authors did not find an association between alcohol consumption and change in CD4 cell count over time in either group. CONCLUSIONS: No effect of alcohol consumption on either virological failure or CD4 cell count in both groups of ART-initiating and ART-naive individuals was found. However, severe drinkers were more likely to interrupt ART. Efforts on ART continuation should be especially implemented in individuals reporting high alcohol consumption.

Fitness, inclusive fitness, and optimization

Individual-as-maximizing agent analogies result in a simple understanding of the functioning of the biological world. Identifying the conditions under which individuals can be regarded as fitness maximizing agents is thus of considerable interest to biologists. Here, we compare different concepts of fitness maximization, and discuss within a single framework the relationship between Hamilton's (J Theor Biol 7: 1-16, 1964) model of social interactions, Grafen's (J Evol Biol 20: 1243-1254, 2007a) formal Darwinism project, and the idea of evolutionary stable strategies. We distinguish cases where phenotypic effects are additive separable or not, the latter not being covered by Grafen's analysis. In both cases it is possible to define a maximand, in the form of an objective function phi(z), whose argument is the phenotype of an individual and whose derivative is proportional to Hamilton's inclusive fitness effect. However, this maximand can be identified with the expression for fecundity or fitness only in the case of additive separable phenotypic effects, making individual-as-maximizing agent analogies unattractive (although formally correct) under general situations of social interactions. We also feel that there is an inconsistency in Grafen's characterization of the solution of his maximization program by use of inclusive fitness arguments. His results are in conflict with those on evolutionary stable strategies obtained by applying inclusive fitness theory, and can be repaired only by changing the definition of the problem.

Effect of weight reduction in moderately overweight patients on recorded ambulatory blood pressure and free cytosolic platelet calcium.

Although platelet cytosolic calcium has been shown to decrease during pharmacological treatment of hypertension, there is no evidence that cytosolic calcium also falls during a nonpharmacological reduction in blood pressure. To provide such evidence, we examined prospectively the relation between platelet cytosolic calcium and ambulatory blood pressure during weight reduction in moderately overweight (body mass index [BMI] greater than 25), mildly hypertensive individuals. The experimental group (responders: BMI reduction greater than 5%) consisted of 19 patients who lost 8.5 +/- 2.9 kg (mean +/- SD, p less than 0.05) during a 10-week hypocaloric diet, whereas the control group (nonresponders: BMI reduction less than 5%) consisted of 12 patients who showed no relevant change in body weight (-2.0 +/- 1.3 kg) during the same period of time. The moderate weight loss of the responders decreased blood pressure by 14/5 mm Hg (p less than 0.05), as measured by ambulatory monitoring, which renders a placebo effect unlikely. This nonpharmacological reduction in blood pressure was accompanied by a proportional 11% decrease (p less than 0.05) in platelet cytosolic calcium and also by significant (p less than 0.05) decreases in plasma catecholamines and serum cholesterol. These findings establish the concept of a nonpharmacological reduction in free cytosolic platelet calcium in humans and add further evidence suggesting a link between intracellular calcium homeostasis and blood pressure regulation.

Genetic dissection of azole resistance mechanisms in Candida albicans and their validation in a mouse model of disseminated infection.

Principal mechanisms of resistance to azole antifungals include the upregulation of multidrug transporters and the modification of the target enzyme, a cytochrome P450 (Erg11) involved in the 14alpha-demethylation of ergosterol. These mechanisms are often combined in azole-resistant Candida albicans isolates recovered from patients. However, the precise contributions of individual mechanisms to C. albicans resistance to specific azoles have been difficult to establish because of the technical difficulties in the genetic manipulation of this diploid species. Recent advances have made genetic manipulations easier, and we therefore undertook the genetic dissection of resistance mechanisms in an azole-resistant clinical isolate. This isolate (DSY296) upregulates the multidrug transporter genes CDR1 and CDR2 and has acquired a G464S substitution in both ERG11 alleles. In DSY296, inactivation of TAC1, a transcription factor containing a gain-of-function mutation, followed by sequential replacement of ERG11 mutant alleles with wild-type alleles, restored azole susceptibility to the levels measured for a parent azole-susceptible isolate (DSY294). These sequential genetic manipulations not only demonstrated that these two resistance mechanisms were those responsible for the development of resistance in DSY296 but also indicated that the quantitative level of resistance as measured in vitro by MIC determinations was a function of the number of genetic resistance mechanisms operating in any strain. The engineered strains were also tested for their responses to fluconazole treatment in a novel 3-day model of invasive C. albicans infection of mice. Fifty percent effective doses (ED(50)s) of fluconazole were highest for DSY296 and decreased proportionally with the sequential removal of each resistance mechanism. However, while the fold differences in ED(50) were proportional to the fold differences in MICs, their magnitude was lower than that measured in vitro and depended on the specific resistance mechanism operating.

Stone-ground wood pulp-reinforced polypropylene composites: water uptake and thermal properties

Two of the drawbacks of using natural-based composites in industrial applications are thermal instability and water uptake capacity. In this work, mechanical wood pulp was used to reinforce polypropylene at a level of 20 to 50 wt. %. Composites were mixed by means of a Brabender internal mixer for both non-coupled and coupled formulations. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) were used to determine the thermal properties of the composites. The water uptake behavior was evaluated by immersion of the composites in water until an equilibrium state was reached. Results of water absorption tests revealed that the amount of water absorption was clearly dependent upon the fiber content. The coupled composites showed lower water absorption compared to the uncoupled composites. The incorporation of mechanical wood pulp into the polypropylene matrix produced a clear nucleating effect by increasing the crystallinity degree of the polymer and also increasing the temperature of polymer degradation. The maximum degradation temperature for stone ground wood pulp–reinforced composites was in the range of 330 to 345 ºC

Tensile strength characteristics of polypropylene composites reinforced with stone groundwood fibers from softwood

The behavior of stone groundwood / polypropylene injection-molded composites was evaluated with and without coupling agent. Stone groundwood (SGW) is a fibrous material commonly prepared in a high yield process and mainly used for papermaking applications. In this work, the use of SGW fibers was explored as a reinforcing element of polypropylene (PP) composites. The surface charge density of the composite components was evaluated, as well as the fiber’s length and diameter inside the composite material. Two mixing extrusion processes were evaluated, and the use of a kinetic mixer, instead of an internal mixer, resulted in longer mean fiber lengths of the reinforcing fibers. On the other hand, the accessibility of surface hydroxyl groups of stone groundwood fibers was improved by treating the fibers with 5% of sodium hydroxide, resulting in a noticeable increase of the tensile strength of the composites, for a similar percentage of coupling agent. A new parameter called Fiber Tensile Strength Factor is defined and used as a baseline for the comparison of the properties of the different composite materials. Finally the competitiveness of stone groundwood / polypropylene / polypropylene-co-maleic anhydride system, which compared favorably to sized glass-fiber / polypropylene GF/PP and glass-fiber / polypropylene / polypropylene-co-maleic anhydride composite formulations, was quantified by means of the fiber tensile strength factor

When to initiate combined antiretroviral therapy to reduce mortality and AIDS-defining illness in HIV-infected persons in developed countries: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Most clinical guidelines recommend that AIDS-free, HIV-infected persons with CD4 cell counts below 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L initiate combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), but the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated remains a matter of debate. OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated. DESIGN: Prospective observational data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and dynamic marginal structural models were used to compare cART initiation strategies for CD4 thresholds between 0.200 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L. SETTING: HIV clinics in Europe and the Veterans Health Administration system in the United States. PATIENTS: 20, 971 HIV-infected, therapy-naive persons with baseline CD4 cell counts at or above 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L and no previous AIDS-defining illnesses, of whom 8392 had a CD4 cell count that decreased into the range of 0.200 to 0.499 × 10(9) cells/L and were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios and survival proportions for all-cause mortality and a combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. RESULTS: Compared with initiating cART at the CD4 cell count threshold of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L, the mortality hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.22) for the 0.350 threshold and 1.20 (CI, 0.97 to 1.48) for the 0.200 threshold. The corresponding hazard ratios were 1.38 (CI, 1.23 to 1.56) and 1.90 (CI, 1.67 to 2.15), respectively, for the combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. Limitations: CD4 cell count at cART initiation was not randomized. Residual confounding may exist. CONCLUSION: Initiation of cART at a threshold CD4 count of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L increases AIDS-free survival. However, mortality did not vary substantially with the use of CD4 thresholds between 0.300 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L.

Life-history consequences of adaptation to larval nutritional stress in Drosophila.

Many animal species face periods of chronic nutritional stress during which the individuals must continue to develop, grow, and/or reproduce despite low quantity or quality of food. Here, we use experimental evolution to study adaptation to such chronic nutritional stress in six replicate Drosophila melanogaster populations selected for the ability to survive and develop within a limited time on a very poor larval food. In unselected control populations, this poor food resulted in 20% lower egg-to-adult viability, 70% longer egg-to-adult development, and 50% lower adult body weight (compared to the standard food on which the flies were normally maintained). The evolutionary changes associated with adaptation to the poor food were assayed by comparing the selected and control lines in a common environment for different traits after 29-64 generations of selection. The selected populations evolved improved egg-to-adult viability and faster development on poor food. Even though the adult dry weight of selected flies when raised on the poor food was lower than that of controls, their average larval growth rate was higher. No differences in proportional pupal lipid content were observed. When raised on the standard food, the selected flies showed the same egg-to-adult viability and the same resistance to larval heat and cold shock as the controls and a slightly shorter developmental time. However, despite only 4% shorter development time, the adults of selected populations raised on the standard food were 13% smaller and showed 20% lower early-life fecundity than the controls, with no differences in life span. The selected flies also turned out less tolerant to adult malnutrition. Thus, fruit flies have the genetic potential to adapt to poor larval food, with no detectable loss of larval performance on the standard food. However, adaptation to larval nutritional stress is associated with trade-offs with adult fitness components, including adult tolerance to nutritional stress.

Respiratory variability in mechanically ventilated patients. Critical Care 2011

Introduction: Increased respiratory pattern variability is associated with improved oxygenation. Pressure support (PS) is a widely used partial-assist mechanical ventilation (MV) mode, in which each breathing cycle is initiated by flow or pressure variation at the airway due to patient inspiratory effort. Neurally adjusted ventilatory assist (NAVA) is relatively new and uses the electrical activity of the diaphragm (Eadi) to deliver ventilatory support proportional to the patient's inspiratory demand. We hypothesize that respiratory variability should be greater with NAVA compared with PS.Methods: Twenty-two patients underwent 20 minutes of PS followed by 20 minutes of NAVA. Flow and Eadi curves were used to obtain tidal volume (Vt) and ∫Eadi for 300 to 400 breaths in each patient. Patient-specific cumulative distribution functions (CDF) show the percentage Vt and ∫Eadi within a clinically defined (±10%) variability band for each patient. Values are normalized to patient-specific medians for direct comparison. Variability in Vt (outcome) is thus expressed in terms of variability in ∫Eadi (demand) on the same plot.Results: Variability in Vt relative to variability in ∫Eadi is significantly greater for NAVA than PS (P = 0.00012). Hence, greater variability in outcome Vt is obtained for a given demand in ∫Eadi, under NAVA, as illustrated in Figure 1 for a typical patient. A Fisher 2 × 2 contingency analysis showed that 45% of patients under NAVA had a Vt variability in equal proportion to ∫Eadi variability, versus 0% for PS (P < 0.05).Conclusions: NAVA yields greater variability in tidal volume, relative to ∫Eadi demand, and a better match between Vt and ∫Eadi. These results indicate that NAVA could achieve improved oxygenation compared with PS when sufficient underlying variability in ∫Eadi is present, due to its ability to achieve higher tidal volume variability from a given variability in ∫Eadi.

Health behaviours, socioeconomic status, and mortality: further analyses of the British Whitehall II and the French GAZEL prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND: Differences in morbidity and mortality between socioeconomic groups constitute one of the most consistent findings of epidemiologic research. However, research on social inequalities in health has yet to provide a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying this association. In recent analysis, we showed health behaviours, assessed longitudinally over the follow-up, to explain a major proportion of the association of socioeconomic status (SES) with mortality in the British Whitehall II study. However, whether health behaviours are equally important mediators of the SES-mortality association in different cultural settings remains unknown. In the present paper, we examine this issue in Whitehall II and another prospective European cohort, the French GAZEL study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We included 9,771 participants from the Whitehall II study and 17,760 from the GAZEL study. Over the follow-up (mean 19.5 y in Whitehall II and 16.5 y in GAZEL), health behaviours (smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity), were assessed longitudinally. Occupation (in the main analysis), education, and income (supplementary analysis) were the markers of SES. The socioeconomic gradient in smoking was greater (p<0.001) in Whitehall II (odds ratio [OR] = 3.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.11-4.36) than in GAZEL (OR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.18-1.49); this was also true for unhealthy diet (OR = 7.42, 95% CI 5.19-10.60 in Whitehall II and OR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.15-1.49 in GAZEL, p<0.001). Socioeconomic differences in mortality were similar in the two cohorts, a hazard ratio of 1.62 (95% CI 1.28-2.05) in Whitehall II and 1.94 in GAZEL (95% CI 1.58-2.39) for lowest versus highest occupational position. Health behaviours attenuated the association of SES with mortality by 75% (95% CI 44%-149%) in Whitehall II but only by 19% (95% CI 13%-29%) in GAZEL. Analysis using education and income yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Health behaviours were strong predictors of mortality in both cohorts but their association with SES was remarkably different. Thus, health behaviours are likely to be major contributors of socioeconomic differences in health only in contexts with a marked social characterisation of health behaviours. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Assembling genes from predicted exons in linear time with dynamic programming

In a number of programs for gene structure prediction in higher eukaryotic genomic sequences, exon prediction is decoupled from gene assembly: a large pool of candidate exons is predicted and scored from features located in the query DNA sequence, and candidate genes are assembled from such a pool as sequences of nonoverlapping frame-compatible exons. Genes are scored as a function of the scores of the assembled exons, and the highest scoring candidate gene is assumed to be the most likely gene encoded by the query DNA sequence. Considering additive gene scoring functions, currently available algorithms to determine such a highest scoring candidate gene run in time proportional to the square of the number of predicted exons. Here, we present an algorithm whose running time grows only linearly with the size of the set of predicted exons. Polynomial algorithms rely on the fact that, while scanning the set of predicted exons, the highest scoring gene ending in a given exon can be obtained by appending the exon to the highest scoring among the highest scoring genes ending at each compatible preceding exon. The algorithm here relies on the simple fact that such highest scoring gene can be stored and updated. This requires scanning the set of predicted exons simultaneously by increasing acceptor and donor position. On the other hand, the algorithm described here does not assume an underlying gene structure model. Indeed, the definition of valid gene structures is externally defined in the so-called Gene Model. The Gene Model specifies simply which gene features are allowed immediately upstream which other gene features in valid gene structures. This allows for great flexibility in formulating the gene identification problem. In particular it allows for multiple-gene two-strand predictions and for considering gene features other than coding exons (such as promoter elements) in valid gene structures.

Effects of KRAS, BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA mutations on the efficacy of cetuximab plus chemotherapy in chemotherapy-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer: a retrospective consortium analysis.

Background Following the discovery that mutant KRAS is associated with resistance to anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies, the tumours of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer are now profiled for seven KRAS mutations before receiving cetuximab or panitumumab. However, most patients with KRAS wild-type tumours still do not respond. We studied the effect of other downstream mutations on the efficacy of cetuximab in, to our knowledge, the largest cohort to date of patients with chemotherapy-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab plus chemotherapy in the pre-KRAS selection era. Methods 1022 tumour DNA samples (73 from fresh-frozen and 949 from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue) from patients treated with cetuximab between 2001 and 2008 were gathered from 11 centres in seven European countries. 773 primary tumour samples had sufficient quality DNA and were included in mutation frequency analyses; mass spectrometry genotyping of tumour samples for KRAS, BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA was done centrally. We analysed objective response, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival in molecularly defined subgroups of the 649 chemotherapy-refractory patients treated with cetuximab plus chemotherapy. Findings 40.0% (299/747) of the tumours harboured a KRAS mutation, 14.5% (108/743) harboured a PIK3CA mutation (of which 68.5% [74/108] were located in exon 9 and 20.4% [22/108] in exon 20), 4.7% (36/761) harboured a BRAF mutation, and 2.6% (17/644) harboured an NRAS mutation. KRAS mutants did not derive benefit compared with wild types, with a response rate of 6.7% (17/253) versus 35.8% (126/352; odds ratio [OR] 0.13, 95% CI 0.07-0.22; p<0.0001), a median PFS of 12. weeks versus 24 weeks (hazard ratio [HR] 1 98, 1.66-2.36; p<0.0001), and a median overall survival of 32 weeks versus 50 weeks (1.75, 1.47-2.09; p<0.0001). In KRAS wild types, carriers of BRAF and NRAS mutations had a significantly lower response rate than did BRAF and NRAS wild types, with a response rate of 8.3% (2/24) in carriers of BRAF mutations versus 38.0% in BRAF wild types (124/326; OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.02-0.51; p=0.0012); and 7.7% (1/13) in carriers of NRAS mutations versus 38.1% in NRAS wild types (110/289; OR 0.14, 0.007-0.70; p=0.013). PIK3CA exon 9 mutations had no effect, whereas exon 20 mutations were associated with a worse outcome compared with wild types, with a response rate of 0.0% (0/9) versus 36.8% (121/329; OR 0.00,0.00-0.89; p=0.029), a median PFS of 11.5 weeks versus 24 weeks (HR 2.52, 1.33-4.78; p=0.013), and a median overall survival of 34 weeks versus 51 weeks (3.29, 1.60-6.74; p=0.0057). Multivariate analysis and conditional inference trees confirmed that, if KRAS is not mutated, assessing BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA exon 20 mutations (in that order) gives additional information about outcome. Objective response rates in our series were 24.4% in the unselected population, 36.3% in the KRAS wild-type selected population, and 41.2% in the KRAS, BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA exon 20 wild-type population. Interpretation While confirming the negative effect of KRAS mutations on outcome after cetuximab, we show that BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA,exon 20 mutations are significantly associated with a low response rate. Objective response rates could be improved by additional genotyping of BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA exon 20 mutations in a KRAS wild-type population.

ASTRAL Score Predicts 5-Year Dependence and Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was externally validated showing remarkable consistency on 3-month outcome prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The present study aimed to evaluate ASTRAL score's prognostic accuracy to predict 5-year outcome. METHODS: All consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke registered in the Athens Stroke Registry between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2010, were included. Patients were excluded if admitted >24 hours after symptom onset or if any ASTRAL score component was missing. End points were 5-year unfavorable functional outcome, defined as modified Rankin Scale 3 to 6, and 5-year mortality. For each outcome, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated; also, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to investigate whether the ASTRAL score was an independent predictor of outcome. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate the probability of 5-year survival for each ASTRAL score quartile. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the score to predict 5-year unfavorable functional outcome was 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.91. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year unfavorable functional outcome (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the ASTRAL score's discriminatory power to predict 5-year mortality was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.83). In multivariate analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). During the 5-year follow-up, the probability of survival was significantly lower with increasing ASTRAL score quartiles (log-rank test <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score reliably predicts 5-year functional outcome and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke.