973 resultados para probability models


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Continuum, partial differential equation models are often used to describe the collective motion of cell populations, with various types of motility represented by the choice of diffusion coefficient, and cell proliferation captured by the source terms. Previously, the choice of diffusion coefficient has been largely arbitrary, with the decision to choose a particular linear or nonlinear form generally based on calibration arguments rather than making any physical connection with the underlying individual-level properties of the cell motility mechanism. In this work we provide a new link between individual-level models, which account for important cell properties such as varying cell shape and volume exclusion, and population-level partial differential equation models. We work in an exclusion process framework, considering aligned, elongated cells that may occupy more than one lattice site, in order to represent populations of agents with different sizes. Three different idealizations of the individual-level mechanism are proposed, and these are connected to three different partial differential equations, each with a different diffusion coefficient; one linear, one nonlinear and degenerate and one nonlinear and nondegenerate. We test the ability of these three models to predict the population level response of a cell spreading problem for both proliferative and nonproliferative cases. We also explore the potential of our models to predict long time travelling wave invasion rates and extend our results to two dimensional spreading and invasion. Our results show that each model can accurately predict density data for nonproliferative systems, but that only one does so for proliferative systems. Hence great care must be taken to predict density data for with varying cell shape.

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Many modern business environments employ software to automate the delivery of workflows; whereas, workflow design and generation remains a laborious technical task for domain specialists. Several differ- ent approaches have been proposed for deriving workflow models. Some approaches rely on process data mining approaches, whereas others have proposed derivations of workflow models from operational struc- tures, domain specific knowledge or workflow model compositions from knowledge-bases. Many approaches draw on principles from automatic planning, but conceptual in context and lack mathematical justification. In this paper we present a mathematical framework for deducing tasks in workflow models from plans in mechanistic or strongly controlled work environments, with a focus around automatic plan generations. In addition, we prove an associative composition operator that permits crisp hierarchical task compositions for workflow models through a set of mathematical deduction rules. The result is a logical framework that can be used to prove tasks in workflow hierarchies from operational information about work processes and machine configurations in controlled or mechanistic work environments.

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Nowadays, business process management is an important approach for managing organizations from an operational perspective. As a consequence, it is common to see organizations develop collections of hundreds or even thousands of business process models. Such large collections of process models bring new challenges and provide new opportunities, as the knowledge that they encapsulate requires to be properly managed. Therefore, a variety of techniques for managing large collections of business process models is being developed. The goal of this paper is to provide an overview of the management techniques that currently exist, as well as the open research challenges that they pose.

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The compressed gas industry and government agencies worldwide utilize "adiabatic compression" testing for qualifying high-pressure valves, regulators, and other related flow control equipment for gaseous oxygen service. This test methodology is known by various terms including adiabatic compression testing, gaseous fluid impact testing, pneumatic impact testing, and BAM testing as the most common terms. The test methodology will be described in greater detail throughout this document but in summary it consists of pressurizing a test article (valve, regulator, etc.) with gaseous oxygen within 15 to 20 milliseconds (ms). Because the driven gas1 and the driving gas2 are rapidly compressed to the final test pressure at the inlet of the test article, they are rapidly heated by the sudden increase in pressure to sufficient temperatures (thermal energies) to sometimes result in ignition of the nonmetallic materials (seals and seats) used within the test article. In general, the more rapid the compression process the more "adiabatic" the pressure surge is presumed to be and the more like an isentropic process the pressure surge has been argued to simulate. Generally speaking, adiabatic compression is widely considered the most efficient ignition mechanism for directly kindling a nonmetallic material in gaseous oxygen and has been implicated in many fire investigations. Because of the ease of ignition of many nonmetallic materials by this heating mechanism, many industry standards prescribe this testing. However, the results between various laboratories conducting the testing have not always been consistent. Research into the test method indicated that the thermal profile achieved (i.e., temperature/time history of the gas) during adiabatic compression testing as required by the prevailing industry standards has not been fully modeled or empirically verified, although attempts have been made. This research evaluated the following questions: 1) Can the rapid compression process required by the industry standards be thermodynamically and fluid dynamically modeled so that predictions of the thermal profiles be made, 2) Can the thermal profiles produced by the rapid compression process be measured in order to validate the thermodynamic and fluid dynamic models; and, estimate the severity of the test, and, 3) Can controlling parameters be recommended so that new guidelines may be established for the industry standards to resolve inconsistencies between various test laboratories conducting tests according to the present standards?

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There is an intimate interconnectivity between policy guidelines defining reform and the delineation of what research methods would be subsequently applied to determine reform success. Research is guided as much by the metaphors describing it as by the ensuing empirical definition of actions of results obtained from it. In a call for different reform policy metaphors Lumby and English (2010) note, “The primary responsibility for the parlous state of education... lies with the policy makers that have racked our schools with reductive and dehumanizing processes, following the metaphors of market efficiency, and leadership models based on accounting and the characteristics of machine bureaucracy” (p. 127)

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This paper presents an approach to building an observation likelihood function from a set of sparse, noisy training observations taken from known locations by a sensor with no obvious geometric model. The basic approach is to fit an interpolant to the training data, representing the expected observation, and to assume additive sensor noise. This paper takes a Bayesian view of the problem, maintaining a posterior over interpolants rather than simply the maximum-likelihood interpolant, giving a measure of uncertainty in the map at any point. This is done using a Gaussian process framework. To validate the approach experimentally, a model of an environment is built using observations from an omni-directional camera. After a model has been built from the training data, a particle filter is used to localise while traversing this environment

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Sourcing appropriate funding for the provision of new urban infrastructure has been a policy dilemma for governments around the world for decades. This is particularly relevant in high growth areas where new services are required to support swelling populations. The Australian infrastructure funding policy dilemmas are reflective of similar matters in many countries, particularly the United States of America, where infrastructure cost recovery policies have been in place since the 1970’s. There is an extensive body of both theoretical and empirical literature from these countries that discusses the passing on (to home buyers) of these infrastructure charges, and the corresponding impact on housing prices. The theoretical evidence is consistent in its findings that infrastructure charges are passed on to home buyers by way of higher house prices. The empirical evidence is also consistent in its findings, with “overshifting” of these charges evident in all models since the 1980’s, i.e. $1 infrastructure charge results in greater than $1 increase in house prices. However, despite over a dozen separate studies over two decades in the US on this topic, no empirical works have been carried out in Australia to test if similar shifting or overshifting occurs here. The purpose of this research is to conduct a preliminary analysis of the more recent models used in these US empirical studies in order to identify the key study area selection criteria and success factors. The paper concludes that many of the study area selection criteria are implicit rather than explicit. By collecting data across the models, some implicit criteria become apparent, whilst others remain elusive. This data will inform future research on whether an existing model can be adopted or adapted for use in Australia.

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The improvement and optimization of business processes is one of the top priorities in an organization. Although process analysis methods are mature today, business analysts and stakeholders are still hampered by communication issues. That is, analysts cannot effectively obtain accurate business requirements from stakeholders, and stakeholders are often confused about analytic results offered by analysts. We argue that using a virtual world to model a business process can benefit communication activities. We believe that virtual worlds can be used as an efficient model-view approach, increasing the cognition of business requirements and analytic results, as well as the possibility of business plan validation. A healthcare case study is provided as an approach instance, illustrating how intuitive such an approach can be. As an exploration paper, we believe that this promising research can encourage people to investigate more research topics in the interdisciplinary area of information system, visualization and multi-user virtual worlds.

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Multiple marker sets and models are currently available for assessing foot and ankle kinematics in gait. Despite the presence of such a wide variety of models, the reporting of methodological designs remains inconsistent and lacks clearly defined standards. This review highlights the variability found when reporting biomechanical model parameters, methodological design, and model reliability. Further, the review clearly demonstrates the need for a consensus of what methodological considerations to report in manuscripts, which focus on the topic of foot and ankle biomechanics. We propose five minimum reporting standards, that we believe will ensure the transparency of methods and begin to allow the community to move towards standard modelling practice. The strict adherence to these standards should ultimately improve the interpretation and clinical useability of foot and ankle marker sets and their corresponding models.

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Groundwater is a major resource on Bribie Island and its sustainable management is essential to maintain the natural and modified eco-systems, as well as the human population and the integrity of the island as a sand mass. An effective numerical model is essential to enable predictions, and to test various water use and rainfall/climate scenarios. Such a numerical model must, however, be based on a representative conceptual hydrogeological model to allow incorporation of realistic controls and processes. Here we discuss the various hydrogeological models and parameters, and hydrological properties of the materials forming the island. We discuss the hydrological processes and how they can be incorporated into these models, in an integrated manner. Processes include recharge, discharge to wetlands and along the coastline, abstraction, evapotranspiration and potential seawater intrusion. The types and distributions of groundwater bores and monitoring are considered, as are scenarios for groundwater supply abstraction. Different types of numerical models and their applicability are also considered

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Finite Element Modeling (FEM) has become a vital tool in the automotive design and development processes. FEM of the human body is a technique capable of estimating parameters that are difficult to measure in experimental studies with the human body segments being modeled as complex and dynamic entities. Several studies have been dedicated to attain close-to-real FEMs of the human body (Pankoke and Siefert 2007; Amann, Huschenbeth et al. 2009; ESI 2010). The aim of this paper is to identify and appraise the state of-the art models of the human body which incorporate detailed pelvis and/or lower extremity models. Six databases and search engines were used to obtain literature, and the search was limited to studies published in English since 2000. The initial search results identified 636 pelvis-related papers, 834 buttocks-related papers, 505 thigh-related papers, 927 femur-related papers, 2039 knee-related papers, 655 shank-related papers, 292 tibia-related papers, 110 fibula-related papers, 644 ankle related papers, and 5660 foot-related papers. A refined search returned 100 pelvis-related papers, 45 buttocks related papers, 65 thigh-related papers, 162 femur-related papers, 195 kneerelated papers, 37 shank-related papers, 80 tibia-related papers, 30 fibula-related papers and 102 ankle-related papers and 246 foot-related papers. The refined literature list was further restricted by appraisal against a modified LOW appraisal criteria. Studies with unclear methodologies, with a focus on populations with pathology or with sport related dynamic motion modeling were excluded. The final literature list included fifteen models and each was assessed against the percentile the model represents, the gender the model was based on, the human body segment/segments included in the model, the sample size used to develop the model, the source of geometric/anthropometric values used to develop the model, the posture the model represents and the finite element solver used for the model. The results of this literature review provide indication of bias in the available models towards 50th percentile male modeling with a notable concentration on the pelvis, femur and buttocks segments.

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Over the past decade our understanding of foot function has increased significantly[1,2]. Our understanding of foot and ankle biomechanics appears to be directly correlated to advances in models used to assess and quantify kinematic parameters in gait. These advances in models in turn lead to greater detail in the data. However, we must consider that the level of complexity is determined by the question or task being analysed. This systematic review aims to provide a critical appraisal of commonly used marker sets and foot models to assess foot and ankle kinematics in a wide variety of clinical and research purposes.

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In this work a biomechanical model is used for simulation of muscle forces necessary to maintain the posture in a car seat under different support conditions.

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This paper presents an innovative prognostics model based on health state probability estimation embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To employ an appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed prognostic model, the comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault levels of three faults in HP-LNG pump. Two sets of impeller-rubbing data were employed for the prediction of pump remnant life based on estimation of discrete health state probability using an outstanding capability of SVM and a feature selection technique. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

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In 2002, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) issued a report entitled Results of a pilot survey of forty selected organized criminal groups in sixteen countries which established five models of organised crime. This paper reviews these and other common organised crime models and drug trafficking models, and applies them to cases of South East Asian drug trafficking in the Australian state of Queensland. The study tests the following hypotheses: (1) South-East Asian drug trafficking groups in Queensland will operate within a criminal network or core group; (2) Wholesale drug distributors in Queensland will not fit consistently under any particular UN organised crime model; and (3) Street dealers will have no organisational structure. The study concluded that drug trafficking or importation closely resembles a criminal network or core group structure. Wholesale dealers did not fit consistently into any UN organised crime model. Street dealers had no organisational structure as an organisational structure is typically found in mid- to high-level drug trafficking.