Hierarchical Task Network Planning with Common-Sense Reasoning for Multiple-People Behaviour Analysis

Safety on public transport is a major concern for the relevant authorities. We
address this issue by proposing an automated surveillance platform which combines data from video, infrared and pressure sensors. Data homogenisation and integration is achieved by a distributed architecture based on communication middleware that resolves interconnection issues, thereby enabling data modelling. A common-sense knowledge base models and encodes knowledge about public-transport platforms and the actions and activities of passengers. Trajectory data from passengers is modelled as a time-series of human activities. Common-sense knowledge and rules are then applied to detect inconsistencies or errors in the data interpretation. Lastly, the rationality that characterises human behaviour is also captured here through a bottom-up Hierarchical Task Network planner that, along with common-sense, corrects misinterpretations to explain passenger behaviour. The system is validated using a simulated bus saloon scenario as a case-study. Eighteen video sequences were recorded with up to six passengers. Four metrics were used to evaluate performance. The system, with an accuracy greater than 90% for each of the four metrics, was found to outperform a rule-base system and a system containing planning alone.

A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

Temporal reasoning about action and change

Abstract not available

A discrete formalism for reasoning about action and change

This paper presents a discrete formalism for temporal reasoning about actions and change, which enjoys an explicit representation of time and action/event occurrences. The formalism allows the expression of truth values for given fluents over various times including nondecomposable points/moments and decomposable intervals. Two major problems which beset most existing interval-based theories of action and change, i.e., the so-called dividing instant problem and the intermingling problem, are absent from this new formalism. The dividing instant problem is overcome by excluding the concepts of ending points of intervals, and the intermingling problem is bypassed by means of characterising the fundamental time structure as a well-ordered discrete set of non-decomposable times (points and moments), from which decomposable intervals are constructed. A comprehensive characterisation about the relationship between the negation of fluents and the negation of involved sentences is formally provided. The formalism provides a flexible expression of temporal relationships between effects and their causal events, including delayed effects of events which remains a problematic question in most existing theories about action and change.

Reasoning about change over time: Actions, events and their effects

This paper presents a new formalism for reasoning about change over time. The formalism derives a clean separation between the notion of states and situations. It allows more flexible temporal causal relationships than do other formalisms for reasoning about causal change, such as the situation calculus and the event calculus. It includes effects that start during, immediately after, or some time after their causes, and which end before, simultaneously with, or after their causes. A formal distinction between actions, action-types and events is proposed, which allows the expression of common-sense causal laws at high level. It is shown how these laws can be used to deduce state change over time at low level, when events occur under certain preconditions hold. Two problems that beset most interval-based temporal systems, i.e., the so-called dividing instant problem and intermingling problem, are absent from the formalism.

Application of meta-analytical probabilistic approach for reliability benefits reflective optimal transmission costing – the case of India

In the deregulated Power markets it is necessary to have a appropriate Transmission Pricing methodology that also takes into account “Congestion and Reliability”, in order to ensure an economically viable, equitable, and congestion free power transfer capability, with high reliability and security. This thesis presents results of research conducted on the development of a Decision Making Framework (DMF) of concepts and data analytic and modelling methods for the Reliability benefits Reflective Optimal “cost evaluation for the calculation of Transmission Cost” for composite power systems, using probabilistic methods. The methodology within the DMF devised and reported in this thesis, utilises a full AC Newton-Raphson load flow and a Monte-Carlo approach to determine, Reliability Indices which are then used for the proposed Meta-Analytical Probabilistic Approach (MAPA) for the evaluation and calculation of the Reliability benefit Reflective Optimal Transmission Cost (ROTC), of a transmission system. This DMF includes methods for transmission line embedded cost allocation among transmission transactions, accounting for line capacity-use as well as congestion costing that can be used for pricing using application of Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) as well as Bialek’s method to determine a methodology which consists of a series of methods and procedures as explained in detail in the thesis for the proposed MAPA for ROTC. The MAPA utilises the Bus Data, Generator Data, Line Data, Reliability Data and Customer Damage Function (CDF) Data for the evaluation of Congestion, Transmission and Reliability costing studies using proposed application of PTDF and other established/proven methods which are then compared, analysed and selected according to the area/state requirements and then integrated to develop ROTC. Case studies involving standard 7-Bus, IEEE 30-Bus and 146-Bus Indian utility test systems are conducted and reported throughout in the relevant sections of the dissertation. There are close correlation between results obtained through proposed application of PTDF method with the Bialek’s and different MW-Mile methods. The novel contributions of this research work are: firstly the application of PTDF method developed for determination of Transmission and Congestion costing, which are further compared with other proved methods. The viability of developed method is explained in the methodology, discussion and conclusion chapters. Secondly the development of comprehensive DMF which helps the decision makers to analyse and decide the selection of a costing approaches according to their requirements. As in the DMF all the costing approaches have been integrated to achieve ROTC. Thirdly the composite methodology for calculating ROTC has been formed into suits of algorithms and MATLAB programs for each part of the DMF, which are further described in the methodology section. Finally the dissertation concludes with suggestions for Future work.

Case-based reasoning as a tool to improve the usability of numerical models

There may be advantages to be gained by combining Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) techniques with numerical models. In this paper we consider how CBR can be used as a flexible query engine to improve the usability of numerical models. Particularly they can help to solve inverse and mixed problems, and to solve constraint problems. We discuss this idea with reference to the illustrative example of a pneumatic conveyor. We describe a model of the problem of particle degradation in such a conveyor, and the problems faced by design engineers. The solution of these problems requires a system that allows iterative sharing of control between user, CBR system, and numerical model. This multi-initiative interaction is illustrated for the pneumatic conveyor by means of Unified Modeling Language (UML) collaboration and sequence diagrams. We show approaches to the solution of these problems via a CBR tool.

Structured cases in case-based reasoning: re-using and adapting cases for time-tabling problems

In this paper, we present a case-based reasoning (CBR) approach solving educational time-tabling problems. Following the basic idea behind CBR, the solutions of previously solved problems are employed to aid finding the solutions for new problems. A list of feature-value pairs is insufficient to represent all the necessary information. We show that attribute graphs can represent more information and thus can help to retrieve re-usable cases that have similar structures to the new problems. The case base is organised as a decision tree to store the attribute graphs of solved problems hierarchically. An example is given to illustrate the retrieval, re-use and adaptation of structured cases. The results from our experiments show the effectiveness of the retrieval and adaptation in the proposed method.

Multiple-Retrieval Case-Based Reasoning for Course Timetabling Problems

The structured representation of cases by attribute graphs in a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) system for course timetabling has been the subject of previous research by the authors. In that system, the case base is organised as a decision tree and the retrieval process chooses those cases which are sub attribute graph isomorphic to the new case. The drawback of that approach is that it is not suitable for solving large problems. This paper presents a multiple-retrieval approach that partitions a large problem into small solvable sub-problems by recursively inputting the unsolved part of the graph into the decision tree for retrieval. The adaptation combines the retrieved partial solutions of all the partitioned sub-problems and employs a graph heuristic method to construct the whole solution for the new case. We present a methodology which is not dependant upon problem specific information and which, as such, represents an approach which underpins the goal of building more general timetabling systems. We also explore the question of whether this multiple-retrieval CBR could be an effective initialisation method for local search methods such as Hill Climbing, Tabu Search and Simulated Annealing. Significant results are obtained from a wide range of experiments. An evaluation of the CBR system is presented and the impact of the approach on timetabling research is discussed. We see that the approach does indeed represent an effective initialisation method for these approaches.

Case-Based Reasoning as a Heuristic Selector in a Hyper-Heuristic for Course Timetabling Problems

This paper studies Knowledge Discovery (KD) using Tabu Search and Hill Climbing within Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) as a hyper-heuristic method for course timetabling problems. The aim of the hyper-heuristic is to choose the best heuristic(s) for given timetabling problems according to the knowledge stored in the case base. KD in CBR is a 2-stage iterative process on both case representation and the case base. Experimental results are analysed and related research issues for future work are discussed.

Knowledge discovery in hyper-heuristic using case-based reasoning on course timetabling

This paper presents a new hyper-heuristic method using Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) for solving course timetabling problems. The term Hyper-heuristics has recently been employed to refer to 'heuristics that choose heuristics' rather than heuristics that operate directly on given problems. One of the overriding motivations of hyper-heuristic methods is the attempt to develop techniques that can operate with greater generality than is currently possible. The basic idea behind this is that we maintain a case base of information about the most successful heuristics for a range of previous timetabling problems to predict the best heuristic for the new problem in hand using the previous knowledge. Knowledge discovery techniques are used to carry out the training on the CBR system to improve the system performance on the prediction. Initial results presented in this paper are good and we conclude by discussing the con-siderable promise for future work in this area.

Case-based reasoning in course timetabling: an attribute graph approach

An earlier Case-based Reasoning (CBR) approach developed by the authors for educational course timetabling problems employed structured cases to represent the complex relationships between courses. Previous solved cases represented by attribute graphs were organized hierarchically into a decision tree. The retrieval searches for graph isomorphism among these attribute graphs. In this paper, the approach is further developed to solve a wider range of problems. We also attempt to retrieve those graphs that have common similar structures but also have some differences. Costs that are assigned to these differences have an input upon the similarity measure. A large number of experiments are performed consisting of different randomly produced timetabling problems and the results presented here strongly indicate that a CBR approach could provide a significant step forward in the development of automated system to solve difficult timetabling problems. They show that using relatively little effort, we can retrieve these structurally similar cases to provide high quality timetables for new timetabling problems.

Multiple-retrieval case-based reasoning for course timetabling problems

The structured representation of cases by attribute graphs in a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) system for course timetabling has been the subject of previous research by the authors. In that system, the case base is organised as a decision tree and the retrieval process chooses those cases which are sub attribute graph isomorphic to the new case. The drawback of that approach is that it is not suitable for solving large problems. This paper presents a multiple-retrieval approach that partitions a large problem into small solvable sub-problems by recursively inputting the unsolved part of the graph into the decision tree for retrieval. The adaptation combines the retrieved partial solutions of all the partitioned sub-problems and employs a graph heuristic method to construct the whole solution for the new case. We present a methodology which is not dependant upon problem specific information and which, as such, represents an approach which underpins the goal of building more general timetabling systems. We also explore the question of whether this multiple-retrieval CBR could be an effective initialisation method for local search methods such as Hill Climbing, Tabu Search and Simulated Annealing. Significant results are obtained from a wide range of experiments. An evaluation of the CBR system is presented and the impact of the approach on timetabling research is discussed. We see that the approach does indeed represent an effective initialisation method for these approaches.