Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Systolic array system for vector quantization using transformed sub-band coding.

The use of bit-level systolic arrays in the design of a vector quantized transformed subband coding system for speech signals is described. It is shown how the major components of this system can be decomposed into a small number of highly regular building blocks that interface directly to one another. These include circuits for the computation of the discrete cosine transform, the inverse discrete cosine transform, and vector quantization codebook search.

Application of artificial neural network techniques to low bit-rate speech coding

Research has been undertaken to investigate the use of artificial neural network (ANN) techniques to improve the performance of a low bit-rate vector transform coder. Considerable improvements in the perceptual quality of the coded speech have been obtained. New ANN-based methods for vector quantiser (VQ) design and for the adaptive updating of VQ codebook are introduced for use in speech coding applications.

HIGH-FIDELITY MUSIC CODING AT 4 BITS.

A very high-quality sub-band ADPCM music coding scheme which compresses high-fidelity music signals, bandlimited to 15kHz, to an equivalent PCM representation of only 4 bits per sample, is described. By processing music sampled at 32 kHz, this coder exhibits a total bit rate of only 128kbit/s and is consequently applicable to the ISDN. Subjective tests conducted with this coder have shown that music recovered from the compression scheme is essentially indistinguishable from the original material. The results obtained are of major importance, not only for ISDN and broadcasting, but also for other digital audio technology such as compact disc (CD) and digital audio tape.

VLSI architectures for digital image coding

A number of high-performance VLSI architectures for real-time image coding applications are described. In particular, attention is focused on circuits for computing the 2-D DCT (discrete cosine transform) and for 2-D vector quantization. The former circuits are based on Winograd algorithms and comprise a number of bit-level systolic arrays with a bit-serial, word-parallel input. The latter circuits exhibit a similar data organization and consist of a number of inner product array circuits. Both circuits are highly regular and allow extremely high data rates to be achieved through extensive use of parallelism.

INDEPENDENT EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE CCITT G. 722 WIDEBAND CODING RECOMMENDATION.

The subjective performance of the G. 722 7-kHz wideband speech coding recommendation using music signals is described. A number of audible distortions specific to music signals were found to be present in real-time evaluations of the coder. As a result, three modifications are proposed which are found to improve the performance for music signals. These modifications are compatible with the G. 722 system configuration. Modifications made to G. 722 to alleviate the most serious aspects of the noise modulation are described: (1) an adaptive bit allocation scheme is used to reduce short and long-term nonoptimality; (2) spectral noise shaping is incorporated, significantly enhancing the subjective performance of certain modes; and (3) backward block adaptive prediction is used.

INDEPENDENT EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE CCITT G. 722 WIDEBAND CODING RECOMMENDATION USING MUSIC SIGNALS.

The subjective performance of the G. 722 7-kHz wideband speech-coding recommendation using music signals is described. A number of audible distortions specific to music signals were found to be present in real-time evaluations of the coder. As a result, three modifications are proposed which are found to improve the performance for music signals. These modifications are compatible with the G. 722 system configuration. The results obtained clearly demonstrate the very high coding efficiency of subband ADPCM (adaptive differential pulse-code modulation) with comparison to digitally companding and ADM schemes when applied to music signals.

Efficiently exploring architectural design spaces via predictive modeling

Architects use cycle-by-cycle simulation to evaluate design choices and understand tradeoffs and interactions among design parameters. Efficiently exploring exponential-size design spaces with many interacting parameters remains an open problem: the sheer number of experiments renders detailed simulation intractable. We attack this problem via an automated approach that builds accurate, confident predictive design-space models. We simulate sampled points, using the results to teach our models the function describing relationships among design parameters. The models produce highly accurate performance estimates for other points in the space, can be queried to predict performance impacts of architectural changes, and are very fast compared to simulation, enabling efficient discovery of tradeoffs among parameters in different regions. We validate our approach via sensitivity studies on memory hierarchy and CPU design spaces: our models generally predict IPC with only 1-2% error and reduce required simulation by two orders of magnitude. We also show the efficacy of our technique for exploring chip multiprocessor (CMP) design spaces: when trained on a 1% sample drawn from a CMP design space with 250K points and up to 55x performance swings among different system configurations, our models predict performance with only 4-5% error on average. Our approach combines with techniques to reduce time per simulation, achieving net time savings of three-four orders of magnitude. Copyright © 2006 ACM.

Neonatal Facial Coding System for assessing postoperative pain in infants:item reduction is valid and feasible

The objectives of this study were to: (1). evaluate the validity of the Neonatal Facial Coding System (NFCS) for assessment of postoperative pain and (2). explore whether the number of NFCS facial actions could be reduced for assessing postoperative pain.

Bedside application of the Neonatal Facial Coding System in pain assessment of premature neonates

Assessment of infant pain is a pressing concern, especially within the context of neonatal intensive care where infants may be exposed to prolonged and repeated pain during lengthy hospitalization. In the present study the feasibility of carrying out the complete Neonatal Facial Coding System (NFCS) in real time at bedside, specifically reliability, construct and concurrent validity, was evaluated in a tertiary level Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). Heel lance was used as a model of procedural pain, and observed with n = 40 infants at 32 weeks gestational age. Infant sleep/wake state, NFCS facial activity and specific hand movements were coded during baseline, unwrap, swab, heel lance, squeezing and recovery events. Heart rate was recorded continuously and digitally sampled using a custom designed computer system. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed statistically significant differences across events for facial activity (P <0.0001) and heart rate (P <0.0001). Planned comparisons showed facial activity unchanged during baseline, swab and unwrap, then increased significantly during heel lance (P <0.0001), increased further during squeezing (P <0.003), then decreased during recovery (P <0.0001). Systematic shifts in sleep/wake state were apparent. Rise in facial activity was consistent with increased heart rate, except that facial activity more closely paralleled initiation of the invasive event. Thus facial display was more specific to tissue damage compared with heart rate. Inter-observer reliability was high. Construct validity of the NFCS at bedside was demonstrated as invasive procedures were distinguished from tactile. While bedside coding of behavior does not permit raters to be blind to events, mechanical recording of heart rate allowed for an independent source of concurrent validation for bedside application of the NFCS scale.

Efficient Architectural Design Space Exploration via Predictive Modeling

Efficiently exploring exponential-size architectural design spaces with many interacting parameters remains an open problem: the sheer number of experiments required renders detailed simulation intractable.We attack this via an automated approach that builds accurate predictive models. We simulate sampled points, using results to teach our models the function describing relationships among design parameters. The models can be queried and are very fast, enabling efficient design tradeoff discovery. We validate our approach via two uniprocessor sensitivity studies, predicting IPC with only 1–2% error. In an experimental study using the approach, training on 1% of a 250-K-point CMP design space allows our models to predict performance with only 4–5% error. Our predictive modeling combines well with techniques that reduce the time taken by each simulation experiment, achieving net time savings of three-four orders of magnitude.

In silico prediction of the effects of mutations in the human UDP-galactose 4'-epimerase gene:Towards a predictive framework for type III galactosemia

The enzyme UDP-galactose 4'-epimerase (GALE) catalyses the reversible epimerisation of both UDP-galactose and UDP-N-acetyl-galactosamine. Deficiency of the human enzyme (hGALE) is associated with type III galactosemia. The majority of known mutations in hGALE are missense and private thus making clinical guidance difficult. In this study a bioinformatics approach was employed to analyse the structural effects due to each mutation using both the UDP-glucose and UDP-N-acetylglucosamine bound structures of the wild-type protein. Changes to the enzyme's overall stability, substrate/cofactor binding and propensity to aggregate were also predicted. These predictions were found to be in good agreement with previous in vitro and in vivo studies when data was available and allowed for the differentiation of those mutants that severely impair the enzyme's activity against UDP-galactose. Next this combination of techniques were applied to another twenty-six reported variants from the NCBI dbSNP database that have yet to be studied to predict their effects. This identified p.I14T, p.R184H and p.G302R as likely severely impairing mutations. Although severely impaired mutants were predicted to decrease the protein's stability, overall predicted stability changes only weakly correlated with residual activity against UDP-galactose. This suggests other protein functions such as changes in cofactor and substrate binding may also contribute to the mechanism of impairment. Finally this investigation shows that this combination of different in silico approaches is useful in predicting the effects of mutations and that it could be the basis of an initial prediction of likely clinical severity when new hGALE mutants are discovered.

The predictive science of community ecology

Body mass measures provide a tantalizing tool for explaining both variation in emergent community-level patterns and as a mechanistic basis for fundamental processes such as metabolism, consumption and competition. The unification of body mass, abundance and food web (ecological network) structure in community ecology is an effective way to explore future scenarios of environmental change. However, constraints over the availability of data against which to validate model predictions limit the application of size-based approaches. Here, I explore issues over the use of body size for predicting interaction strengths and hence the dynamics of natural ecosystems. The advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and limitations of such approaches are explored. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.