Ecological-economic modeling for biodiversity management: Potential, pitfalls, and prospects

Ecologists and economists both use models to help develop strategies for biodiversity management. The practical use of disciplinary models, however, can be limited because ecological models tend not to address the socioeconomic dimension of biodiversity management, whereas economic models tend to neglect the ecological dimension. Given these shortcomings of disciplinary models, there is a necessity to combine ecological and economic knowledge into ecological-economic models. It is insufficient if scientists work separately in their own disciplines and combine their knowledge only when it comes to formulating management recommendations. Such an approach does not capture feedback loops between the ecological and the socioeconomic systems. Furthermore, each discipline poses the management problem in its own way and comes up with its own most appropriate solution. These disciplinary solutions, however are likely to be so different that a combined solution considering aspects of both disciplines cannot be found. Preconditions for a successful model-based integration of ecology and economics include (1) an in-depth knowledge of the two disciplines, (2) the adequate identification and framing of the problem to be investigated, and (3) a common understanding between economists and ecologists of modeling and scale. To further advance ecological-economic modeling the development of common benchmarks, quality controls, and refereeing standards for ecological-economic models is desirable.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parthenium weed: a potential major weed for agro-ecosystems in Pakistan

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is a new and potentially major weed in Pakistan. This weed, originating from central America, is now a major weed in many regions of the world including Eastern Africa, India, parts of South East Asia and Australia. Presumably its recent arrival in Pakistan has been due to its movement from India, but this has yet to be established. In Australia it has been present for about 50 years, in which time it has spread from isolated infestations to establish core populations in central Queensland with scattered and isolated plants occurring south into New South Wales and north-west into the Northern Territory. Its spread in Pakistan is likely to be much more rapid, but lessons learnt in Australia will be of great value for weed managers in Pakistan. This annual herb has the potential to spread to all medium rainfall rangeland, dairy and summer cropping areas in Pakistan. In Australia its main effect is upon livestock production, but it is also causing health concerns in regional communities. However, in India it has also had a significant impact in cropping systems. To help coordinate actions on its management in Australia, a National Weeds Program has created a Parthenium Weed Management Group (PWMG) and under this group a Parthenium Weed Research Group (PWRG) has been formed. Funding coming from this national program and other sources has supported the PWRG to undertake a collaborative and technology exchange research program in two main areas: 1) biology and ecology and 2) management; while the PWMG has focused on community awareness and the production of various extension and management packages. Research in the area of biology and ecology has included studies on the evaluation of competitive plants to displace parthenium weed, the use of process-based simulation models to monitor and predict future spread and abundance under present and future climate conditions, the effect of the weed on human health and the ecology of its seed bank. Management research has focussed on the development of biological control approaches using plant-feeding insects and pathogens. The effectiveness of biological control is also being monitored through long term studies on seed bank size and dynamics. The use of fire as another potential management tool is also being evaluated. In addition to this important research, an effort has also been made to spread the most important findings and management outcomes to the wider community through an extension and education program driven by the PWMG. These developments within Australia, in parthenium weed management, will be of great help to P

Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

Centralised or decentralised? Strategic implications of resource allocation models

This paper examines the strategic implications of resource allocation models (RAMs). Four interrelated aspects of resource allocation are discussed: degree of centralisation, locus of strategic direction, cross-subsidy, and locus of control. The paper begins with a theoretical overview of these concepts, locating the study in the contexts of both strategic management literature and the university. The concepts are then examined empirically, drawing upon a longitudinal study of three UK universities, Warwick, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), and Oxford Brookes. Findings suggest that RAMs are historically and culturally situated within the context of each university and this is associated with different patterns of strategic direction and forms of strategic control. As such, the RAM in use may be less a matter of best practice than one of internal fit. The paper concludes with some implications for theory and practice by discussing the potential trajectories of each type of RAM.

Design and synthesis of potential antimicrobial agents

Chorismate mutase is one of the essential enzymes in the shikimate pathway and is key to the survival of the organism Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The x-ray crystal structure of this enzyme from Mycobacterium tuberculosis was manipulated to prepare an initial set of in silico protein models of the active site. Known inhibitors of the enzyme were docked into the active site using the flexible ligand / flexible active site side chains approach implemented in CAChe Worksystem (Fujitsu Ltd). The resulting complexes were refined by molecular dynamics studies in explicit water using Amber 9. This yielded a further set of protein models that were used for additional rounds of ligand docking. A binding hypothesis was established for the enzyme and this was used to screen a database of commercially available drug-like compounds. From these results new potential ligands were designed that fitted appropriately into the active site and matched the functional groups and binding motifs founds therein. Some of these compounds and close analogues were then synthesized and submitted for biological evaluation. As a separate part of this thesis, analogues of very active anti-tuberculosis pyridylcarboxamidrazone were also prepared. This was carried out by the addition and the deletion of the substitutions from the lead compound thereby preparing heteroaryl carboxamidrazone derivatives and related compounds. All these compounds were initially evaluated for biological activity against various gram positive organisms and then sent to the TAACF (USA) for screening against Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Some of the new compounds proved to be at least as potent as the original lead compound but less toxic.

Models of gas-liquid solubilities

A recent method for phase equilibria, the AGAPE method, has been used to predict activity coefficients and excess Gibbs energy for binary mixtures with good accuracy. The theory, based on a generalised London potential (GLP), accounts for intermolecular attractive forces. Unlike existing prediction methods, for example UNIFAC, the AGAPE method uses only information derived from accessible experimental data and molecular information for pure components. Presently, the AGAPE method has some limitations, namely that the mixtures must consist of small, non-polar compounds with no hydrogen bonding, at low moderate pressures and at conditions below the critical conditions of the components. Distinction between vapour-liquid equilibria and gas-liquid solubility is rather arbitrary and it seems reasonable to extend these ideas to solubility. The AGAPE model uses a molecular lattice-based mixing rule. By judicious use of computer programs a methodology was created to examine a body of experimental gas-liquid solubility data for gases such as carbon dioxide, propane, n-butane or sulphur hexafluoride which all have critical temperatures a little above 298 K dissolved in benzene, cyclo-hexane and methanol. Within this methodology the value of the GLP as an ab initio combining rule for such solutes in very dilute solutions in a variety of liquids has been tested. Using the GLP as a mixing rule involves the computation of rotationally averaged interactions between the constituent atoms, and new calculations have had to be made to discover the magnitude of the unlike pair interactions. These numbers have been seen as significant in their own right in the context of the behaviour of infinitely-dilute solutions. A method for extending this treatment to "permanent" gases has also been developed. The findings from the GLP method and from the more general AGAPE approach have been examined in the context of other models for gas-liquid solubility, both "classical" and contemporary, in particular those derived from equations-of-state methods and from reference solvent methods.

Development of performance models for co-operative information systems in an organisational context

The thesis reports of a study into the effect upon organisations of co-operative information systems (CIS) incorporating flexible communications, group support and group working technologies. A review of the literature leads to the development of a model of effect based upon co-operative business tasks. CIS have the potential to change how co-operative business tasks are carried out and their principal effect (or performance) may therefore be evaluated by determining to what extent they are being employed to perform these tasks. A significant feature of CIS use identified is the extent to which they may be designed to fulfil particular tasks, or by contrast, may be applied creatively by users in an emergent fashion to perform tasks. A research instrument is developed using a survey questionnaire to elicit users judgements of the extent to which a CIS is employed to fulfil a range of co-operative tasks. This research instrument is applied to a longitudinal study of Novell GroupWise introduction at Northamptonshire County Council during which qualitative as well as quantitative data were gathered. A method of analysis of questionnaire results using principles from fuzzy mathematics and artificial intelligence is developed and demonstrated. Conclusions from the longitudinal study include the importance of early experiences in setting patterns for use for CIS, the persistence of patterns of use over time and the dominance of designed usage of the technology over emergent use.

Investigation of potential intervention targets to improve insulin action: a therapeutic approach

Impaired insulin action (insulin resistance) is a key factor in the pathogenesis of diabetes mellitus. To investigate therapeutic targets against insulin resistance, this thesis explores the mechanism of action of pharmacological agents and exogenous peptides known or suspected to modify insulin action. These included leptin, a hormone primarily involved in the regulation of body weight; sibutramine, an antiobesity agent; plant-derived compounds (pinitol and chamaemeloside) and agents known to affect insulin sensitivity, e.g. metformin, tolbutamide, thiazolidinediones, vanadyl sulphate and thioctic acid. Models used for investigation included the L6 skeletal muscle cell line and isolated skeletal muscles. In vivo studies were undertaken to investigate glycaemia, insulinaemia, satiety and body weight in streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice and obese (ob/ob) mice. Leptin acutely altered insulin action in skeletal muscle cells via the short form of the leptin receptor. This direct action of leptin was mediated via a pathway involving PI 3-kinase but not Jak2. The active metabolites of sibutramine had antidiabetic properties in vivo and directly improved insulin sensitivity in vitro. This effect appeared to be conducted via a non-PI 3-kinase-mediated increase in protein synthesis with facilitated glucose transport, and was independent of the serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibition produced by sibutramine. Pinitol (a methyl inositol) had an insulin mimetic effect and was an effective glucose-lowering agent in insulinopenic states, acting directly on skeletal muscle. Conversely chamaemeloside appeared to improve glucose tolerance without directly altering glucose transport. Metformin directly increased basal glucose uptake independently of PI 3-kinase, possibly via an increase in the intrinsic activity of glucose transporters. Neither tolbutamide nor thiazolidinediones directly altered insulin sensitivity in L6 skeletal muscle cells: however vanadyl sulphate and thioctic acid increased glucose transport but appeared to exert toxic effects at therapeutic concentrations. Examination of glucose transport in skeletal muscle in this thesis has identified various components of post-receptor insulin signalling pathways which may be targeted to ameliorate insulin resistance. Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Obesity L6 Skeletal Muscle Cells Glucose Transport Insulin Signalling 2

Computer aided manufacturing of geometric models

As systems for computer-aided-design and production of mechanical parts have developed, there has arisen a need for techniques for the comprehensive description of the desired part, including its 3-D shape. The creation and manipulation of shapes is generally known as geometric modelling. It is desirable that links be established between geometric modellers and machining programs. Currently, unbounded APT and some bounded geometry systems are being widely used in manufacturing industry for machining operations such as: milling, drilling, boring and turning, applied mainly to engineering parts. APT systems, however, are presently only linked to wire-frame drafting systems. The combination of a geometric modeller and APT will provide a powerful manufacturing system for industry from the initial design right through part manufacture using NC machines. This thesis describes a recently developed interface (ROMAPT) between a bounded geometry modeller (ROMULUS) and an unbounded NC processor (APT). A new set of theoretical functions and practical algorithms for the computer aided manufacturing of 3D solid geometric model has been investigated. This work has led to the development of a sophisticated computer program, ROMAPT, which provides a new link between CAD (in form of a goemetric modeller ROMULUS) and CAM (in form of the APT NC system). ROMAPT has been used to machine some engineering prototypes successfully both in soft foam material and aluminium. It has been demonstrated above that the theory and algorithms developed by the author for the development of computer aided manufacturing of 3D solid modelling are both valid and applicable. ROMAPT allows the full potential of a solid geometric modeller (ROMULUS) to be further exploited for NC applications without requiring major investment in new NC processor. ROMAPT supports output in APT-AC, APT4 and the CAM-I SSRI NC languages.

Free radicals as potential antitumour agents

The aim of this work was to use extremely low concentrations of free radical generating compounds as a 'catalyst' to trigger endogenous free radical chain reactions in the host and to selectively eliminate neoplastic cells in the host. To test the hypothesis, a number of free radical generating compounds were screened on several malignant cell lines in vitro to select model compounds that were used against tumour models in vivo. 2,2-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) and its derivatives were selected at the model compounds for in vivo experiments in view of their high cytotoxic potency against several malignant cell lines in vitro. The water soluble derivative, 2,2-diphenyl-1-(2', 4'-dinitro-6'-sulphophenyl) hydrazyl (DDSH) given by subcutaneous injections demonstrated significant antitumour activities against the MAC 16 murine colon adenocarcinoma implanted subcutaneously in male NMRI mice at nanomolar concentration range. 40-60% of long term survival of over 60 days was achieved (compared with control survival of 20 days) with total tumour elimination. This compound was also active against both P388 leukaemia in male BDF1 mice and TLX5 lymphoid tumour in male CBA/CA mice at a similar concentration range. However, some of these animals died suddenly after treatment with no evidence of disease present at post mortem. The cause of death was unknown but thought to be related to the treatment. There was significant increase in serum level of malondialdehyde (MDA) following treatment, but did not correlate to the antitumour activities of these compounds. Induction of supcroxide dismutase (SOD), and glutathione peroxidase (GPx) occurred around day 8 after the administration of DDSH. Histological sections of MAC16 tumours showed areas of extensive massive haemorrhagic necrosis and vascular collapse associated with perivascular cell death following the administration of nanomolar concentration of DDSH which was probably compatible with the effects of free radicals. It was concluded that the antitumour activities of these compounds may be related to free radical and cytokine production.

Lipophilic antifolates as potential antipsoriatic agents

The lipophilic dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) inhibitor m-azidopyrimethamine (MZP) was investigated for suitability for development as a topical antipsoriatic agent. The clinical features and treatments for psoriasis were reviewed. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) was employed as the main analytical method, with UV spectroscopy being used in some cases. Reduction of the azido-group was proposed as a potential detoxification mechanism for MZP. The rates of reduction of a series of substituted phenyl azide compounds by dithiothreitol were investigated and found to depend on the substitution pattern of the aryl azide molecular, with electron deficient azides exhibiting faster rates of reduction in the system studied. The rates of reduction of MZP and analogous compounds were also studied using this model. The skin penetration of MZP was assessed using an in vitro hairless mouse skin model. The rate of permeation (flux) of MZP across hairless mouse skin was found to be dependent on the quantity of propylene glycol used as cosolvent in the vehicle and the pH. The use of a pretreatment regime of oleic acid in propylene glycol was shown to greatly increase the penetration of MZP through the hairless mouse skin as compared to application without pretreatment, or pretreatment with other penetration enhancers. The metabolism of MZP was studied in in vitro models comprising skin homogenates, SV-K14 human keratinocyte cell cultures and skin commensal bacterial cultures. No conversion of MZP to the corresponding amine was detected in any of the models. The growth inhibitory properties of MZP were investigated in an in vitro SV-K14 human keratinocyte cell culture model and compared with those of other DHFR inhibitors. [14C]-pyrimethamine was shown to be taken up by the SV-K14 keratinocytes.

Bromelain's activity and potential as an anti-cancer agent:Current evidence and perspectives

The medicinal qualities of pineapple are recognized in many traditions in South America, China and Southeast Asia. These qualities are attributed to bromelain, a 95%-mixture of proteases. Medicinal qualities of bromelain include anti-inflammatory, anti-thrombotic, fibrinolytic and anti-cancer functions. Existing evidence derived from clinical observations as well as from mouse- and cell-based models suggests that bromelain acts systemically, affecting multiple cellular and molecular targets. In recent years, studies have shown that bromelain has the capacity to modulate key pathways that support malignancy. It is now possible to suggest that the anti-cancer activity of bromelain consists in the direct impact on cancer cells and their micro-environment, as well as in the modulation of immune, inflammatory and haemostatic systems. This review will summarize existing data relevant to bromelain's anti-cancer activity and will suggest mechanisms which account for bromelain's effect, in the light of research involving non-cancer models. The review will also identify specific new research questions that will need to be addressed in order for a full assessment of bromelain-based anti-cancer therapy.

Enhanced semantic access to formal software models

The success of the Semantic Web, as the next generation of Web technology, can have profound impact on the environment for formal software development. It allows both the software engineers and machines to understand the content of formal models and supports more effective software design in terms of understanding, sharing and reusing in a distributed manner. To realise the full potential of the Semantic Web in formal software development, effectively creating proper semantic metadata for formal software models and their related software artefacts is crucial. In this paper, a methodology with tool support is proposed to automatically derive ontological metadata from formal software models and semantically describe them.

Assessment of different formulations of oral Mycobacterium bovis Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine in rodent models for immunogenicity and protection against aerosol challenge with M-bovis

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis is causing considerable economic loss to farmers and Government in the United Kingdom as its incidence is increasing. Efforts to control bTB in the UK are hampered by the infection in Eurasian badgers (Metes metes) that represent a wildlife reservoir and source of recurrent M. bovis exposure to cattle. Vaccination of badgers with the human TB vaccine, M. bovis Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), in oral bait represents a possible disease control tool and holds the best prospect for reaching badger populations over a wide geographical area. Using mouse and guinea pig models, we evaluated the immunogenicity and protective efficacy, respectively, of candidate badger oral vaccines based on formulation of BCG in lipid matrix, alginate beads, or a novel microcapsular hybrid of both lipid and alginate. Two different oral doses of BCG were evaluated in each formulation for their protective efficacy in guinea pigs, while a single dose was evaluated in mice. In mice, significant immune responses (based on lymphocyte proliferation and expression of IFN-gamma) were only seen with the lipid matrix and the lipid in alginate microcapsular formulation, corresponding to the isolation of viable BCG from alimentary tract lymph nodes. In guinea pigs, only BCG formulated in lipid matrix conferred protection to the spleen and lungs following aerosol route challenge with M. bovis. Protection was seen with delivery doses in the range 10(6)-10(7) CFU, although this was more consistent in the spleen at the higher dose. No protection in terms of organ CFU was seen with BCG administered in alginate beads or in lipid in alginate microcapsules, although 10(7) in the latter formulation conferred protection in terms of increasing body weight after challenge and a smaller lung to body weight ratio at necropsy. These results highlight the potential for lipid, rather than alginate, -based vaccine formulations as suitable delivery vehicles for an oral BCG vaccine in badgers.