975 resultados para positive predictive value


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Background: The presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent marker of increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality. However, the predictive value of thoracic aorta calcification (TAC), which can be additionally identified without further scanning during assessment of CAC, is unknown. Methods: We followed a cohort of 8401 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 53 +/- 10 years, 69% men) undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and TAC and CAC testing with electron beam computed tomography. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality based on the presence of TAC. Results: During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 124 (1.5%) deaths were observed. Overall survival was 96.9% and 98.9% for those with and without detectable TAC, respectively (p < 0.0001). Compared to those with no TAC, the hazard ratio for mortality in the presence of TAC was 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.65, p < 0.0001) in unadjusted analysis. After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking and family history of premature coronary artery disease, and presence of CAC the relationship remained robust (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.10-2.27, p = 0.015). Likelihood ratio chi(2) statistics demonstrated that the addition of TAC contributed significantly in predicting mortality to traditional risk factors alone (chi(2) = 13.62, p = 0.002) as well as risk factors + CAC (chi(2) = 5.84, p = 0.02) models. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of TAC was associated with all-cause mortality in our study; this relationship was independent of conventional CVD risk factors as well as the presence of CAC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is one of the most important causes of chronic liver disease in the world, potentially resulting in cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and the need for liver transplantation. Liver biopsy is currently performed before therapy indication. Although, it is the golden standard there are many reasons to avoid or delay the procedure. APRI Score is an easy, low cost and practice alternative method which was described as an alternative for assessing structural changes in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The rationale of this study was to observe the accuracy of APRI Score in comparison to liver biopsy in 400 patients divided into two groups of 200 carriers (Validation and Experimental groups respectively) selected at random or according to liver fibrosis staging (METAVIR). The ROC curves showed a concordance among these two methods of 92% and 88.5% when 1.05 was the cut off (F3 and F4), and 87% and 83%, on 0.75 cut offs (F2-F4). The discordance in advanced fibrosis staging (F3 and F4) was only 16 (8%) and 22 (11%) out of 200 patients in the experimental and validation groups, respectively. In 26 (13%) out of 200 patients in the experimental group and 34 (17%) out of 200 patients in the validation group, there was discordance between APRI Score and liver biopsy in moderate and advanced fibrosis (F2-F4). In conclusion APRI is a serological marker that has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity together with a high predictive value and it can be useful either in the absence of a biopsy or to reduce the frequency with which biopsies need to be carried out to monitor the evolution of chronic hepatitis C and the right moment for treatment indication.

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OBJECTIVE. Coronary MDCT angiography has been shown to be an accurate noninvasive tool for the diagnosis of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Its sensitivity and negative predictive value for diagnosing percentage of stenosis are unsurpassed compared with those of other noninvasive testing methods. However, in its current form, it provides no information regarding the physiologic impact of CAD and is a poor predictor of myocardial ischemia. CORE320 is a multicenter multinational diagnostic study with the primary objective to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 320-MDCT for detecting coronary artery luminal stenosis and corresponding myocardial perfusion deficits in patients with suspected CAD compared with the reference standard of conventional coronary angiography and SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging. CONCLUSION. We aim to describe the CT acquisition, reconstruction, and analysis methods of the CORE320 study.

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Aortic valve calcium (AVC) can be quantified on the same computed tomographic scan as coronary artery calcium (CAC). Although CAC is an established predictor of cardiovascular events, limited evidence is available for an independent predictive value for AVC. We studied a cohort of 8,401 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53 10 years, 69% men), who were free of known coronary heart disease and were undergoing electron beam computed tomography for assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis. The patients were followed for a median of 5 years (range 1 to 7) for the occurrence of mortality from any cause. Multivariate Cox regression models were developed to predict all-cause mortality according to the presence of AVC. A total of 517 patients (6%) had AVC on electron beam computed tomography. During follow-up, 124 patients died (1.5%), for an overall survival rate of 96.1% and 98.7% for those with and without AVC, respectively (hazard ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 2.09 to 5.49). After adjustment for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and a family history of premature coronary heart disease, AVC remained a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.98). Likelihood ratio chi-square statistics demonstrated that the addition of AVC contributed significantly to the prediction of mortality in a model adjusted for traditional risk factors (chi-square = 5.03, p = 0.03) as well as traditional risk factors plus the presence of CAC (chi-square = 3.58, p = 0.05). In conclusion, AVC was associated with increased all-cause mortality, independent of the traditional risk factors and the presence of CAC. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Inc. (Am J Cardiol 2010;106:1787-1791)

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Introduction: Lower urinary tract symptoms ( LUTS) are common in men over 50 years of age due to prostate enlargement. Diabetes mellitus is also more prevalent in this group. LUTS may result from bladder outlet obstruction ( BOO) secondary to prostate enlargement or bladder dysfunction secondary to diabetes or even from a combination of both. Objectives: The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of BOO and other urodynamic abnormalities in diabetic patients with LUTS and enlarged prostate. A secondary objective was to assess the predictive value of non-invasive tests for BOO diagnosis in this group of patients. Patients and Methods: 50 consecutive diabetic patients with enlarged prostate and LUTS were evaluated by the International Prostate Symptom Score ( IPSS), ultra sonography and urodynamics. BOO diagnosis was based on pressure/ flow measurements according to the International Continence Society`s standards. Results: Of the 50 patients in the study, 23 ( 46%) had BOO. There was no correlation between the IPSS, uroflowmetry, post- voiding residual urine or prostate volume and the presence of BOO ( p > 0.05). Conclusions: There is a relatively low prevalence of BOO in diabetic patients with prostate enlargement and LUTS. Non- invasive tests did not allow the identification of these subjects. Only urodynamic evaluation is able to determine symptom etiology. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

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Weight loss and nutritional status 5 or more years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was prospectively documented. The hypothesis was that even after clinical adaptation, imbalances might still occur. Seventy-five consecutive patients (age 49.3 +/- 10.6 years, 89.3% females) were recruited 83.4 +/- 14.3 months after the intervention. Weight loss and nutritional abnormalities were registered. Body mass index (BMI) was 56.5 +/- 10.0 preoperatively, 29.4 +/- 6. 2 by 24 months and 34.4 +/- 14.6 when last seen. Major current deficit occurred for magnesium (32.1% of the patients), hemoglobin (50.8%), iron (29.8%), ferritin (36.0%), zinc (40.5%), vitamin B(12) (61.8%), vitamin D(3) (60.5%), and beta-carotene (56.8%). Low preoperative measurements had already been unveiled for iron, transferrin, zinc, and vitamin B(12). Total drug consumption tended to decrease after operation, and present findings correlated with excess weight loss (EWL). Also presence of diabetes and BMI value were predictors of long-term EWL, along with biochemical profile by 2 years. Multivitamin supplementation and gastrointestinal complaints partially correlated with nutritional results. (1) Good initial weight loss with moderate late regain, anemia, and multiple nutrient deficits was the common pattern. (2) Massive weight loss, frequent vomiting, dumping syndrome, and women in reproductive age were risk factors for hemoglobin or vitamin deficits, whereas superobesity, diabetes, and use of multiple drugs were associated with EWL result. (3) Most laboratory tests became stable by 2 years and along with BMI correlated with late EWL. (4) Two-year nutritional investigation is especially recommended because of its long-term predictive value.

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Objective: To assess the association between the depth of trophoblastic penetration into the tubal wall with serum concentrations of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and beta-hCG and to assess its predictive value. Design: Prospective study. Setting: Tertiary care university hospital. Patient(s): Thirty patients with ampullary pregnancy undergoing salpingectomy were analyzed. Intervention(s): Trophoblastic invasion was histologically classified as stage I when limited to the tubal mucosa, stage II when extending to the muscle layer, and stage III in the case of complete tubal wall infiltration. Main Outcome Measure(s): The relation between depth of trophoblastic infiltration into the tubal wall with VEGF and beta-hCG serum concentrations on the day of surgery. Result(s): An association between the depth of trophoblastic invasion and maternal serum concentrations of VEGF and beta-hCG was observed. VEGF levels of 297.2 pg/mL showed 100.0% sensitivity and 90.0% specificity for stage I, and levels of 440.1 pg/mL showed 81.8% sensitivity and 88.8% specificity for stage III. Beta-hCG levels of 2590.0 mIU/mL showed 88.9% sensitivity and 80.0% specificity for stage I, and levels of 10,827.0 mUI/mL showed 72.7% sensitivity and 88.9% specificity for stage III. Conclusion(s): Maternal serum VEGF and beta-hCG concentrations are associated with depth of trophoblastic penetration into the tubal wall. (Fertil Steril (R) 2010;94:1595-600. (C) 2010 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

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Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background: The assessment of activities of daily living (ADL) is important both for the diagnosis and staging of dementia. The objective of this study was to verify the applicability and validity of the Brazilian version of the Disability Assessment for Dementia (DAD-Br). Methods: The DAD was applied to caregivers of 89 patients with probable Alzheimer disease (AD) and to 40 elderly individuals without cognitive impairment (controls). We assessed the construct validity of the scale and its diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value). In addition, intergroup and intragroup analyses were conducted to characterize patient performance on basic and instrumental ADL and to determine underlying deficits (initiation, planning, or effective execution). Results: AD patients and controls had mean ages of 76.4 +/- 6.9 years and 74.5 +/- 7.3 years (P = 0.08), respectively. Mean Mini-Mental State Examination scores were 17.4 +/- 5.0 and 26.1 +/- 5.1 (P < 0.001) and scores on the DAD were 68.4 +/- 19.0 and 99.8 +/- 0.9 (P < 0.001), for patients and controls, respectively. The DAD scale showed good internal consistency (Cronbach alpha = 0.77) and correlation with the Mini-Mental State Examination (r = 0.44; P < 0.001). The AD group did better on basic ADL than on instrumental ADL (P < 0.001). As expected, controls did not exhibit significant deficits on the items evaluated. Conclusion: The Brazilian version of the DAD is an adequate and reliable tool for assessing functional ability in AD patients.

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Purpose Revise role of hormonal basal and dynamic tests, as well as ultrasonographic measures as ovarian reserve markers, in order to provide better counseling to subfertile couples. Methods Review of publications on the topic, with an emphasis on recent well designed articles. Results Currently available ovarian reserve tests do not provide sufficient evidence to be solely considered ideal, even for premature ovarian senescence patients who do not present subfertility complaints. However, these markers occupy important place in initial approach to treatment of subfertile couples, predicting unsatisfactory results that could be improved by differentiated induction schemes and reducing excessive psychological and financial burdens, and adverse effects. Conclusions In order to remedy the limitations due to the scarcity of strong evidence about this topic, future studies should try to clarify predictive value of markers in groups of specific diseases-related subfertility and pay special attention to propaedeutic multivariate models including anti-Mullerian hormone and antral follicle count.

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Objective: To evaluate the validity and applicability of the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) used by family medicine residents in primary health care (PHC) in Brazil. Methods: Training for administrating the MINI was given as part of a broad psychiatry education program. Interviews were held with 120 PHC patients who were at least 15 years old. MINI was administered by 25 resident physicians, while the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnosis (SCID) was administered by a psychiatrist blind to patients` results on the MINI, and the diagnoses on both interviews were compared. The resident physicians answered questions on the applicability of the MINI. Results: Concordance levels for any mental disorder, the broader current diagnostic categories and the most common specific diagnoses were analyzed. Kappa coefficients ranged between 0.65 and 0.85; sensitivity, between 0.75 and 0.92; specificity, between 0.90 and 0.99; positive predictive values (PPV), between 0.60 and 0.86; negative predictive values (NPV), between 0.92 and 0.99; and accuracy, between 0.88 and 0.98. The resident physicians considered MINI comprehensibility and clinical relevance satisfactory. Conclusions: These good psychometric results in a real-world setting may be related to a special training program, which is more frequent, intensive and diversified. In these conditions, the MINI is a useful tool for general practitioners. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) is a common problem following cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) in neonates and infants, and its early recognition remains a challenging task. We aimed to test whether a multimarker approach combining inflammatory and cardiac markers provides complementary information for prediction of LCOS and death in children submitted to cardiac surgery with CPB. Forty-six children younger than 18 months with congenital heart defects were prospectively enrolled. No intervention was made. Blood samples were collected pre-operatively, during CPB and post-operatively (PO) for measurement of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Clinical data and outcome variables were recorded. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of LCOS and death. Multivariate logistic regression identified pre-operative NT-proBNP and IL-8 4 h PO as independent predictors of LCOS, while cTnI 4 h PO and CPB length were independent predictors of death. The use of inflammatory and cardiac markers in combination improved sensitivity, negative predictive value and accuracy of the models. In conclusion, the combined assessment of inflammatory and cardiac biochemical markers can be useful for identifying young children at increased risk for LCOS and death after heart surgery with CPB. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Objectives Posterior urethral valves (PUV) are the most common cause of renal impairment in boys during early childhood. Although antenatal suspicion of this pathology has become quite common in recent years, prenatal diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of different ultrasound criteria currently used to diagnose PUV. Methods We reviewed the antenatal and postnatal files of 54 male patients referred to our center from 2000 to 2006 after detection of fetal bilateral hydronephrosis. The following ultrasound criteria were evaluated in relation to the postnatal diagnosis of P U V: amniotic fluid volume, bladder wall thickness, bladder dilatation and the presence of the `keyhole sign`. Results Forty-two fetuses (77.8%) were suspected to have PUV on prenatal examination. Out of these, 29 (69.0%) had PUV confirmed postnatally. The sensitivity and specificity of the antenatal diagnosis of PUV were 94% and 43%, respectively. Increased bladder wall thickness and bladder dilatation were highly associated with the diagnosis of PUV (P < 0.001). However, a thick-walled bladder was observed in 39.1% and a dilated bladder in 47.8% of the infants with a postnatal diagnosis other than PUV. The presence of the keyhole sign was not found to predict a diagnosis of PUV (P = 0.27). Conclusion In this series the use of classical prenatal ultrasound signs to diagnose PUV showed high sensitivity but low specificity. The best diagnostic indicators were increased bladder wall thickness and dilatation of the bladder. The keyhole sign was not found to be a reliable predictor of PUV. Copyright (C) 2009 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Purpose: To compare visual inspection (VI), radiographic examination (RX) and the laser fluorescence device DIAGNOdent (L), as well as their combinations in vitro regarding treatment decisions for occlusal surfaces. Methods: 72 extracted human permanent teeth (molars and premolars) were used. Treatment decisions were recorded by three calibrated examiners, and the options available were fissure sealant and conservative restoration. For validation of treatment decisions, the teeth were sectioned and examined in a stereomicroscope. Thereafter, dental slices were scanned and the images were edited to facilitate classification of existing carious lesions. Intra and inter-examiner reproducibility for the determination of treatment plans were calculated using Cohen`s kappa test (95%-CI). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the area under the ROC curve were also calculated. Results: VI and L provided on average the greatest intra- and inter-examiner reproducibility, respectively. Although the combination of diagnostic methods may decrease both intra- and inter examiners reproducibility, combination of VI, L and RX resulted in the greatest sensitivity, being statistically superior to RX and L. There was more inter-examiner agreement for the option of restorative treatment, while the use of sealants as a treatment option yielded the lowest values. Negative predictive values were numerically inferior to positive predictive values, indicating that the examiners preferred not to restore a carious tooth than to proceed operatively in an intact tooth. The combination of the three methods studied showed the best results in determining treatment plans for occlusal surfaces, when compared to the other types of exams. On the other hand, radiographic examination and laser fluorescence were less efficient when used alone.

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Strong vascular endothelial growth factor-C (VEGF-C) expression has been correlated to occurrence of lymph-node metastases in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). The incidence of occult lymph-node metastasis remains a decisive factor in the prognosis of patients with early OSCC. The aim of this study was to evaluate VEGF-C expression as a predictor of occult lymph-node metastasis in OSCC. Eighty-seven patients with primary OSCC arising in the tongue or floor of mouth, clinically T1N0M0 or T2N0M0, with (pN+) and without (pN0) occult lymph-node metastases were analyzed for VEGF-C expression by malignant cells. Occult lymph-node metastases (pN+) were detected in 22% of the 64 patients who were submitted to elective neck dissection. No statistically significant difference was found between OSCC with and without occult lymph-node metastasis in regard to VEGF-C immunoexpression by malignant cells and clinicopathologic features. Independently of VEGF-C expression, lymph-node metastasis (PN+) was the most significant prognostic factor for overall survival of patients with OSCC (p = 0.030). These findings indicate that isolated VEGF-C expression by malignant cells is not of predictive value for occult lymph-node metastasis in the early stages of OSCC.