Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Green Guide to the Cayman Islands 2: Climate change and the sea around us

This Green Guide provides a brief summary of the alarming evidence of changing climate in the Cayman Islands. As we illustrated in our first Green Guide (2008), our lives on these three magical islands are intimately connected to the land and the surrounding sea. Our economy depends on keeping our islands healthy, because our coral reefs, our beaches, our natural heritage, all draw many thousands of overseas visitors to our shores. It is our responsibility, as stakeholders sharing this beautiful environment, to do what we can to minimise our impact upon it... [PDF contains 32 pages]

Adaptation of coastal communities in the Philippines to the impacts climate change

The Quedan and Rural Credit Guarantee Corporation (Quedancor) of the Philippine Department of Agriculture has the critical responsibility of providing and improving credit assistance to fishers, it also has the task of helping its beneficiaries meet the repayment obligations of their loans. One reason for defaults can be attributed to the devastating impact of natural calamities. Schemes in place are still insufficient to help safeguard lending programs and operations from non-repayment of loans due to production losses and damages to personal properties.(PDF contains 5 pages) Natural calamities include the uncertainties and vagaries of weather and climate that bring about typhoons, floods, and drought; earthquakes; volcanic eruption as well as pests and diseases that affect the productivity of fisheries. When natural calamities occur, small fishers are unable to pay their loans from Quedancor, moreover they have difficulty renewing their loan applications from Quedancor or accessing credit from other sources. Failure to access credit could disable them to continue venture on fishing activities and could eventually jeopardize the welfare of their entire household. The inability of creditors to pay their loans and meet their obligations also impair, to a large extent, the financial operation and viability of the lending institutions. Risk management schemes currently employed include price stabilization measures, targeted relief` to typhoons and drought victims, and crop insurance systems, to name a few. Some of these schemes are becoming very expensive to implement. Moreover, they fail to enable fishers regain sufficient resources so that they may continue production.

Integrating climate change impacts to improve understanding of coastal climate change: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas in coastal Hawaii, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them pose a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific basin, from the tropics to the high latitudes. To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and correspondingly enhance their resiliency), decision-makers in coastal communities require timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. This includes information about the potential for coastal flooding, inundation and erosion at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the longterm climatological context of this information. The Pacific Storms Climatology Project (PSCP) was formed in 2006 with the intent of improving scientific understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - “storminess”- and related impacts of these extreme events. The project is currently developing a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors, including: water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. The PSCP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three primary thematic areas: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas. To address these thematic areas, PSCP has focused on developing analyses of historical climate records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time observations to put recent weather and climate events into a longer-term perspective.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Warning to navigators: IPCC report on climate change mitigation

6 p.

Modelling the Effect of Climate Change on Environmental Pollution Losses from Dairy Systems in the UK

21 p.

Storm track response to perturbations in climate

This thesis advances our understanding of midlatitude storm tracks and how they respond to perturbations in the climate system. The midlatitude storm tracks are regions of maximal turbulent kinetic energy in the atmosphere. Through them, the bulk of the atmospheric transport of energy, water vapor, and angular momentum occurs in midlatitudes. Therefore, they are important regulators of climate, controlling basic features such as the distribution of surface temperatures, precipitation, and winds in midlatitudes. Storm tracks are robustly projected to shift poleward in global-warming simulations with current climate models. Yet the reasons for this shift have remained unclear. Here we show that this shift occurs even in extremely idealized (but still three-dimensional) simulations of dry atmospheres. We use these simulations to develop an understanding of the processes responsible for the shift and develop a conceptual model that accounts for it.

We demonstrate that changes in the convective static stability in the deep tropics alone can drive remote shifts in the midlatitude storm tracks. Through simulations with a dry idealized general circulation model (GCM), midlatitude storm tracks are shown to be located where the mean available potential energy (MAPE, a measure of the potential energy available to be converted into kinetic energy) is maximal. As the climate varies, even if only driven by tropical static stability changes, the MAPE maximum shifts primarily because of shifts of the maximum of near-surface meridional temperature gradients. The temperature gradients shift in response to changes in the width of the tropical Hadley circulation, whose width is affected by the tropical static stability. Storm tracks generally shift in tandem with shifts of the subtropical terminus of the Hadley circulation.

We develop a one-dimensional diffusive energy-balance model that links changes in the Hadley circulation to midlatitude temperature gradients and so to the storm tracks. It is the first conceptual model to incorporate a dynamical coupling between the tropical Hadley circulation and midlatitude turbulent energy transport. Numerical and analytical solutions of the model elucidate the circumstances of when and how the storm tracks shift in tandem with the terminus of the Hadley circulation. They illustrate how an increase of only the convective static stability in the deep tropics can lead to an expansion of the Hadley circulation and a poleward shift of storm tracks.

The simulations with the idealized GCM and the conceptual energy-balance model demonstrate a clear link between Hadley circulation dynamics and midlatitude storm track position. With the help of the hierarchy of models presented in this thesis, we obtain a closed theory of storm track shifts in dry climates. The relevance of this theory for more realistic moist climates is discussed.

Biological response to changes in climate patterns: population increases of gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) in Texas bays and estuaries

The increase in the abundance of gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) in Texas bays and estuaries over the past 30 years is correlated to increased wintertime surface water temperatures. Trends in the relative abundance of gray snapper are evaluated by using monthly fishery-independent monitoring data from each of the seven major estuaries along the Texas coast from 1978 through 2006. Environmental conditions during this period demonstrated increasing annual sea surface temperatures, although this increase was not seasonally uniform. The largest proportion of temperature increases was attributed to higher winter temperature minimums since 1993. Positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, resulting in wetter, warmer winters in the eastern United States have occurred nearly uninterrupted since the late 1970s, and unprecedented positive index values occurred between 1989 and 1995. Increases in water temperature in Texas estuaries, beginning in the early 1990s, are postulated to provide both favorable over-wintering conditions for the newly settled juveniles and increased recruitment success. In the absence of cold winters, this species has established semipermanent estuarine populations across the entire Texas coast. A shift to negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation will likely result in returns to colder winter temperature minimums that could reverse any recent population gains.

Impacts of climate change and variability on fish value chains in Uganda

This study examines the vulnerability of fish pr oduction in Uganda, particularly as it r elates to the predicted impacts from climate change, using the concept of the value chain. The value chain approach has been recommended as a useful tool to study specific challenges facing a sector resulting from various drivers of change, including climate. Critically, such analyses can reveal context-specific response strategies to enhance a sector (Jacinto and Pomer oy 2010). The specific purpose of the study was to identify curr ent and potential impacts of climate change and corresponding adaptation strategies in fish value chains. The study builds upon information fr om earlier value chain analyses on fisheries and aquaculture production in Uganda to provide a more in-depth understanding of issues facing the fish industry, in particular, those to be incorporated in the CGIAR Resear ch Program Livestock and Fish.

High-resolution record of climate change in the Owens Lake Basin, California, for the period 52,500 to 12,500 YBP

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High-resolution oxygen-18 and total inorganic carbon (TIC) studies of cored sediments from the Owens Lake Basin, California, indicate that Owens Lake was hydrologically open (overflowing) most of the time between 52,500 and 12,500 carbon-14 YBP. ... The lack of a strong correspondence between North Atlantic climate records and the Owens Lake delta-oxygen-18 record has two possible explanations: (1) the sequence of large and abrupt climate change indicated in North Atlantic records is not global in scope and is largely confined to the North Atlantic and surrounding areas, or (2) Owens Lake is located in a part of the Great Basin that is relatively insensitive to the effects of climate perturbations recorded in the North Atlantic region.

Elemental carbon record of paleofire history on the Chinese Loess Plateau during the last 420 ka and its response to environmental and climate changes

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