Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

Cool Roofs for improving thermal performance of EU office buildings: an investigation for different climates and building layouts

Cool materials are characterized by having a high solar reflectance r – which is able to reduce heat gains during daytime - and a high thermal emissivity ε that enables them to dissipate the heat absorbed throughout the day during night. Despite the concept of cool roofs - i.e. the application of cool materials to roof surfaces - is well known in US since 1990s, many studies focused on their performance in both residential and commercial sectors under various climatic conditions for US countries, while only a few case studies are analyzed in EU countries. The present work aims at analyzing the thermal benefits due to their application to existing office buildings located in EU countries. Indeed, due to their weight in the existing buildings stock, as well as the very low rate of new buildings construction, the retrofit of office buildings is a topic of great concern worldwide. After an in-depth characterization of the existing buildings stock in the EU, the book gives an insight into roof energy balance due to different technological solutions, showing in which cases and to what extent cool roofs are preferable. A detailed description of the physical properties of cool materials and their availability on the market provides a solid background for the parametric analysis carried out by means of detailed numerical models that aims at evaluating cool roofs performance for various climates and office buildings configurations. With the help of dynamic simulations, the thermal behavior of representative office buildings of the existing EU buildings stock is assessed in terms of thermal comfort and energy needs for air conditioning. The results, which consider several variations of building features that may affect the resulting energy balance, show how cool roofs are an effective strategy for reducing overheating occurrences and thus improving thermal comfort in any climate. On the other hand, potential heating penalties due to a reduction in the incoming heat fluxes through the roof are taken into account, as well as the aging process of cool materials. Finally, an economic analysis of the best performing models shows the boundaries for their economic convenience.

Effects of Cobalt Chloride in Junctional Epithelium and Reduced Enamel Epithelium of the Rat Maxillary First Molar

Cobalt is one of the main components of cast metal alloys broadly used in dentistry. It is the constituent of 45 to 70% of numerous prosthetic works. There are evidences that metal elements cause systemic and local toxicity. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the effects of cobalt on the junctional epithelium and reduced enamel epithelium of the first superior molar in rats, during lactation. To do this, 1-day old rats were used, whose mothers received 300mg of cobalt chloride per liter of distilled water in the drinker, during lactation. After 21 days, the rat pups were killed with an anesthetic overdose. The heads were separated, fixed in ""alfac"", decalcified and embedded in paraffin. Frontal sections stained with hematoxylin and eosin were employed. Karyometric methods allowed to estimate the following parameters: biggest, smallest and mean diameters, D/d ratio, perimeter, area, volume, volume/area ratio, eccentricity, form coefficient and contour index. Stereologic methods allow to evaluate: cytoplasm/nucleus ratio, cell and cytoplasm volume, cell number density, external surface/basal membrane ratio, thickness of the epithelial layers and surface density. All the collected data were subjected to statistic analysis by the non-parametric Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test. The nuclei of the studied tissues showed smaller values after karyometry for: diameters; perimeter, area, volume and volume/area ratio. Stereologically, it was observed, in the junctional epithelium and in the reduced enamel epithelium, smaller cells with scarce cytoplasm, reflected in the greater number of cells per mm3 of tissue. In this study, cobalt caused epithelial atrophy, indicating a direct action on the junctional and enamel epithelium.

Caries, gender and socio-economic change in the Xavante Indians from Central Brazil

Background: The oral health conditions of indigenous peoples in Amazonia are closely associated with ecological and dietary changes related to interaction with non-Indians. Aim: The study investigated the incidence of caries in an indigenous community from Central Brazil focusing on gender differences. Subjects and methods: The research was conducted among the Xavante Indians and was based on longitudinal data collected in two surveys (1999 and 2004). The study included 128 individuals, 63 (49.2%) males and 65 (50.8%) females, divided in four age brackets (6-12, 13-19, 20-34, 35-60 years of age). The DMFT (decayed, missing and filled teeth) index and incidences (difference between 1999 and 2004) were calculated for each individual. The proportion of incidence was also calculated. Differences in caries risk between gender and age brackets were compared by parametric and non-parametric tests. Results: There were statistically significant differences in relation to caries incidence between age brackets and gender. The greatest incidence was observed in the 20-34 age bracket, which presented 3.30 new decayed teeth, twice the risk of the 6-12 age bracket (p0.01), chosen as reference. While females in most age groups did not show higher risk for caries when compared to males, there was a 4.04-fold risk in the 20-34 age bracket (p0.01). Conclusion: It is concluded that factors related to the social functions of each sex (gender issues) and differential access to information, health services, and education may help to understand the differences observed in the incidence of caries.

Clock Genes, Melanopsins, Melatonin, and Dopamine Key Enzymes and Their Modulation by Light and Glutamate in Chicken Embryonic Retinal Cells

The avian circadian system is composed of the retina, the mammalian homolog region of the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SNC), and the pineal gland. The retina, itself, displays many rhythmic physiological events, such as movements of photoreceptor cells, opsin expression, retinal reisomerization, and melatonin and dopamine production and secretion. Altogether, these rhythmic events are coordinated to predict environmental changes in light conditions during the day, optimizing retina function. The authors investigated the expression pattern of the melanopsin genes Opn4x and Opn4m, the clock genes Clock and Per2, and the genes for the key enzymes N-Acetyltransferase and Tyrosine Hidroxylase in chicken embryo dispersed retinal cells. Primary cultures of chicken retina from 8-day-old embryos were kept in constant dark (DD), in 12-h light/12-h dark (12L:12D), in 12L:12D followed by DD, or in DD in the absence or presence of 100 mu M glutamate for 12 h. Total RNA was extracted throughout a 24-h span, every 3 h starting at zeitgeber time 0 (ZT0) of the 6th day, and submitted to reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) followed by quantitative PCR (qPCR) for mRNA quantification. The data showed no rhythmic pattern of transcription for any gene in cells kept in DD. However under a light-dark cycle, Clock, Per2, Opn4m, N-Acetyltransferase, and Tyrosine Hydroxylase exhibited rhythmic patterns of transcription. In DD, 100 mu M glutamate was able to induce rhythmic expression of Clock, strongly inhibited the expression of Tyrosine Hydroxylase, and, only at some ZTs, of Opn4x and Opn4m. The neurotransmitter had no effect on Per2 and N-Acetyltransferase transcription. The authors confirmed the expression of the protein OPN4x by immunocytochemistry. These results suggest that chicken embryonic retinal cells contain a functional circadian clock, whose synchronization requires light-dark cycle or glutamate stimuli. (Author correspondence: amdlcast@ib.usp.br).

Dissociation of circadian and light inhibition of melatonin release through forced desynchronization in the rat

Pineal melatonin release exhibits a circadian rhythm with a tight nocturnal pattern. Melatonin synthesis is regulated by the master circadian clock within the hypothalamic suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) and is also directly inhibited by light. The SCN is necessary for both circadian regulation and light inhibition of melatonin synthesis and thus it has been difficult to isolate these two regulatory limbs to define the output pathways by which the SCN conveys circadian and light phase information to the pineal. A 22-h light-dark (LD) cycle forced desynchrony protocol leads to the stable dissociation of rhythmic clock gene expression within the ventrolateral SCN (vlSCN) and the dorsomedial SCN (dmSCN). In the present study, we have used this protocol to assess the pattern of melatonin release under forced desynchronization of these SCN subregions. In light of our reported patterns of clock gene expression in the forced desynchronized rat, we propose that the vlSCN oscillator entrains to the 22-h LD cycle whereas the dmSCN shows relative coordination to the light-entrained vlSCN, and that this dual-oscillator configuration accounts for the pattern of melatonin release. We present a simple mathematical model in which the relative coordination of a single oscillator within the dmSCN to a single light-entrained oscillator within the vlSCN faithfully portrays the circadian phase, duration and amplitude of melatonin release under forced desynchronization. Our results underscore the importance of the SCN`s subregional organization to both photic input processing and rhythmic output control.

Melanopsin and Clock Genes: Regulation by Light and Endothelin in the Zebrafish ZEM-2S Cell Line

It is well known that clocks are present in brain regions other than the suprachiasmatic nucleus and in many peripheral tissues. In the teleost, Danio rerio, peripheral oscillators can be directly synchronized by light. Danio rerio ZEM-2S embryonic cells respond to light with differential growth: cells kept in constant light exhibited a strong inhibition of proliferation, whereas in cells kept in light:dark (LD) cycles (14L:10D and 10L:14D) or in constant darkness (DD), the doubling times were not statistically different. We demonstrated by RT-PCR followed by PCR that ZEM-2S cells express two melanopsins, Opn4x and Opn4m, and the six Cry genes. The presence of the protein OPN4x was demonstrated by immunocytochemistry. The pattern of temporal expression of the genes Opn4x, Per1, Cry1b, and Clock was studied in ZEM-2S cells kept for five days in 12L:12D or DD. In 12L:12D, the clock genes Per 1 and Cry1b exhibited robust circadian expression, while Opn4x and Clock expression seemed to vary in an ultradian pattern. Both Per1 and Cry1b genes had higher expression during the L phase; Clock gene had an increase in expression coincident with the D phase, and during the subjective night. In DD, the temporal variation of Per1 and Cry1b genes was greatly attenuated but not extinguished, and the higher expressions were shifted to the transition times between subjective day and night, demonstrating that Per and Cry1b were synchronized by the LD cycle. Clock and Opn4x kept the ultradian oscillation, but the rhythm was not statistically significant. As endothelins (ET) have been reported to be a potent stimulator of Per genes in rodents, we investigated the effect of endothelin on ZEM-2S cells, which express ETA receptors. Cells were kept in 12D:12L for five days, and then treated with 10-11 to 10-8M ET-1 for 24h. ET-1 exhibited a biphasic effect on Opn4x expression. At 10-11M, the hormone exerted a highly significant stimulation of Opn4x expression during the L phase and introduced a circadian oscillatory pattern. At 10-10M, a significant increase was seen at ZT21 and ZT0 (i.e., at the end of the D phase and beginning of the L phase), whereas 10-9 and 10-8M ET-1 inhibited the expression of Opn4x at most ZTs. Clock expression was unaffected by 10-8M ET-1; however, in the presence of lower concentrations, the expression was enhanced at some ZTs, strengthening the ultradian oscillation. ET-1 at 10-11 and 10-10M had no effect on Per1 circadian expression; however, 10-9 and 10-8M ET-1 reduced the amplitude of Per1 expression in the beginning of the L phase. ET-1 effects were less evident on Cry 1b. For both genes, the reduction in expression was not sufficient to abolish the circadian oscillatory pattern. Based on these results and data in the literature, a link between ET-1 stimulation of ETA receptors may be established by E4BP4 binding to the promoters and consequent inhibition of gene expression.

Chaotic phase synchronization and desynchronization in an oscillator network for object selection

Object selection refers to the mechanism of extracting objects of interest while ignoring other objects and background in a given visual scene. It is a fundamental issue for many computer vision and image analysis techniques and it is still a challenging task to artificial Visual systems. Chaotic phase synchronization takes place in cases involving almost identical dynamical systems and it means that the phase difference between the systems is kept bounded over the time, while their amplitudes remain chaotic and may be uncorrelated. Instead of complete synchronization, phase synchronization is believed to be a mechanism for neural integration in brain. In this paper, an object selection model is proposed. Oscillators in the network representing the salient object in a given scene are phase synchronized, while no phase synchronization occurs for background objects. In this way, the salient object can be extracted. In this model, a shift mechanism is also introduced to change attention from one object to another. Computer simulations show that the model produces some results similar to those observed in natural vision systems.

A network of integrate and fire neurons for visual selection

Biological systems have facility to capture salient object(s) in a given scene, but it is still a difficult task to be accomplished by artificial vision systems. In this paper a visual selection mechanism based on the integrate and fire neural network is proposed. The model not only can discriminate objects in a given visual scene, but also can deliver focus of attention to the salient object. Moreover, it processes a combination of relevant features of an input scene, such as intensity, color, orientation, and the contrast of them. In comparison to other visual selection approaches, this model presents several interesting features. It is able to capture attention of objects in complex forms, including those linearly nonseparable. Moreover, computer simulations show that the model produces results similar to those observed in natural vision systems.

Parametric analysis of discrepant sets of data

In this paper a new parametric method to deal with discrepant experimental results is developed. The method is based on the fit of a probability density function to the data. This paper also compares the characteristics of different methods used to deduce recommended values and uncertainties from a discrepant set of experimental data. The methods are applied to the (137)Cs and (90)Sr published half-lives and special emphasis is given to the deduced confidence intervals. The obtained results are analyzed considering two fundamental properties expected from an experimental result: the probability content of confidence intervals and the statistical consistency between different recommended values. The recommended values and uncertainties for the (137)Cs and (90)Sr half-lives are 10,984 (24) days and 10,523 (70) days, respectively. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Schenberg spherical gravitational wave detector: the first commissioning runs

Here we present a status report of the first spherical antenna project equipped with a set of parametric transducers for gravitational detection. The Mario Schenberg, as it is called, started its commissioning phase at the Physics Institute of the University of Sao Paulo, in September 2006, under the full support of FAPESP. We have been testing the three preliminary parametric transducer systems in order to prepare the detector for the next cryogenic run, when it will be calibrated. We are also developing sapphire oscillators that will replace the current ones thereby providing better performance. We also plan to install eight transducers in the near future, six of which are of the two-mode type and arranged according to the truncated icosahedron configuration. The other two, which will be placed close to the sphere equator, will be mechanically non-resonant. In doing so, we want to verify that if the Schenberg antenna can become a wideband gravitational wave detector through the use of an ultra-high sensitivity non-resonant transducer constructed using the recent achievements of nanotechnology.

The Schenberg data acquisition and analysis: results from its first commissioning run

The Mario Schenberg gravitational wave detector has started its commissioning phase at the Physics Institute of the University of Sao Paulo. We have collected almost 200 h of data from the instrument in order to check out its behavior and performance. We have also been developing a data acquisition system for it under a VXI System. Such a system is composed of an analog-to-digital converter and a GPS receiver for time synchronization. We have been building the software that controls and sets up the data acquisition. Here we present an overview of the Mario Schenberg detector and its data acquisition system, some results from the first commissioning run and solutions for some problems we have identified.

Er : YAB nanoparticles and vitreous thin films by the polymeric precursor method

The synthesis of Y(0.9)Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) crystalline powders and vitreous thin films were studied. Precursor solutions were obtained using a modified polymeric precursor method using D-sorbitol as complexant agent. The chemical reactions were described. Y(0.)9Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) composition presents good thermal stability with regard to crystallization. The Y(0.9)Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) crystallized phase can be obtained at 1,150 degrees C, in agreement with other authors. Crack- and porosity-free films were obtained with very small grain size and low RMS roughness. The films thickness revealed to be linearly dependent on precursor solution viscosity, being the value of 25 mPa s useful to prepare high-quality amorphous multi-layers (up to similar to 800 nm) at 740 degrees C during 2 h onto silica substrates by spin coating with a gyrset technology.

The double Caldeira-Leggett model: Derivation and solutions of the master equations, reservoir-induced interactions and decoherence

In this paper we analyze the double Caldeira-Leggett model: the path integral approach to two interacting dissipative harmonic oscillators. Assuming a general form of the interaction between the oscillators, we consider two different situations: (i) when each oscillator is coupled to its own reservoir, and (ii) when both oscillators are coupled to a common reservoir. After deriving and solving the master equation for each case, we analyze the decoherence process of particular entanglements in the positional space of both oscillators. To analyze the decoherence mechanism we have derived a general decay function, for the off-diagonal peaks of the density matrix, which applies both to common and separate reservoirs. We have also identified the expected interaction between the two dissipative oscillators induced by their common reservoir. Such a reservoir-induced interaction, which gives rise to interesting collective damping effects, such as the emergence of relaxation- and decoherence-free subspaces, is shown to be blurred by the high-temperature regime considered in this study. However, we find that different interactions between the dissipative oscillators, described by rotating or counter-rotating terms, result in different decay rates for the interference terms of the density matrix. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Erbium and Ytterbium Codoped Titanoniobophosphate Glasses for Ion-Exchange-Based Planar Waveguides

This work presents the optical properties of erbium-doped and erbium/ytterbium codoped Na(2)O-Al(2)O(3)-TiO(2)-Nb(2)O(5)-P(2)O(5) glass systems and also the characterization of planar waveguides obtained by typical thermally assisted Ag+<-> Na+ ion-exchange process. The glass systems allow the preparation of single mode and multimode planar waveguides presenting a strong and relatively broad emission at 1536 nm. The emission signal in the infrared region is intensified for silver-containing samples when compared with free-silver samples. The emission signal intensification may be attributed to a nonplasmonic energy transfer from silver species to Er3+ ions as no bands related to surface plasmon resonance (SPR) of silver nanoparticles were observed.