Employment Effects of Product and Labour Market Reforms: Are There Synergies?

This article investigates the effect of product market liberalisation on employment allowing for interactions between policies and institutions in product and labour markets. Using panel data for OECD countries over the period 19802002, we present evidence that product market deregulation is more effective at the margin when labour market regulation is high. The data also suggest that product market liberalisation may promote employment-enhancing labour market reforms.

An overview of biodiesel soil pollution: Data based on cytotoxicity and genotoxicity assessments

Biodiesel production has received considerable attention in the recent past as a nonpolluting fuel. However, this assertion has been based on its biodegradability and reduction in exhaust emissions. Assessments of water and soil biodiesel pollution are still limited. Spill simulation with biodiesel and their diesel blends in soils were carried out, aiming at analyzing their cytotoxic and genotoxic potentials. While the cytotoxicity observed may be related to diesel contaminants, the genotoxic and mutagenic effects can be ascribed to biodiesel pollutants. Thus, taking into account that our data stressed harmful effects on organisms exposed to biodiesel-polluted soils, the designation of this biofuel as an environmental-friendly fuel should be carefully reviewed to assure environmental quality. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transiting exoplanets from the CoRoT space mission XXII. CoRoT-16b: a hot Jupiter with a hint of eccentricity around a faint solar-like star

Aims. We report the discovery of CoRoT-16b, a low density hot jupiter that orbits a faint G5V star (mV = 15.63) in 5.3523 +/- 0.0002 days with slight eccentricity. A fit of the data with no a priori assumptions on the orbit leads to an eccentricity of 0.33 +/- 0.1. We discuss this value and also derive the mass and radius of the planet. Methods. We analyse the photometric transit curve of CoRoT-16 given by the CoRoT satellite, and radial velocity data from the HARPS and HIRES spectrometers. A combined analysis using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to get the system parameters. Results. CoRoT-16b is a 0.535 -0.083/+0.085 M-J, 1.17 -0.14/+0.16 R-J hot Jupiter with a density of 0.44 -0.14/+0.21 g cm(-3). Despite its short orbital distance (0.0618 +/- 0.0015 AU) and the age of the parent star (6.73 +/- 2.8 Gyr), the planet orbit exhibits significantly non-zero eccentricity. This is very uncommon for this type of objects as tidal effects tend to circularise the orbit. This value is discussed taking into account the characteristics of the star and the observation accuracy.

Influence diagnostics in heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data

In this paper, we propose nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data with heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive structures. Our aim is to extend the models proposed by Russo et al. [22] by considering a more sophisticated scale structure to deal with variations in data dispersion and/or a possible autocorrelation among measurements taken throughout the same experimental unit. Moreover, to avoid the possible influence of outlying observations or to take into account the non-normal symmetric tails of the data, we assume elliptical contours for the joint distribution of random effects and errors, which allows us to attribute different weights to the observations. We propose an iterative algorithm to obtain the maximum-likelihood estimates for the parameters and derive the local influence curvatures for some specific perturbation schemes. The motivation for this work comes from a pharmacokinetic indomethacin data set, which was analysed previously by Bocheng and Xuping [1] under normality.

The submarine volcano eruption off El Hierro Island: Effects on the scattering migrant biota and the evolution of the pelagic communities

[EN] The submarine volcano eruption off El Hierro Island (Canary Islands) on 10 October 2011 promoted dramatic perturbation of the water column leading to changes in the distribution of pelagic fauna. To study the response of the scattering biota, we combined acoustic data with hydrographic profiles and concurrent sea surface turbidity indexes from satellite imagery. We also monitored changes in the plankton and nekton communities through the eruptive and post-eruptive phases. Decrease of oxygen, acidification, rising temperature and deposition of chemicals in shallow waters resulted in a reduction of epipelagic stocks and a disruption of diel vertical migration (nocturnal ascent) of mesopelagic organisms. Furthermore, decreased light levels at depth caused by extinction in the volcanic plume resulted in a significant shallowing of the deep acoustic scattering layer. Once the eruption ceased, the distribution and abundances of the pelagic biota returned to baseline levels. There was no evidence of a volcano-induced bloom in the plankton community.

The firm. Techno-organizational changes, industrial relations and performances. An enquiry on Reggio Emilia local industrial system

It is not unknown that the evolution of firm theories has been developed along a path paved by an increasing awareness of the organizational structure importance. From the early “neoclassical” conceptualizations that intended the firm as a rational actor whose aim is to produce that amount of output, given the inputs at its disposal and in accordance to technological or environmental constraints, which maximizes the revenue (see Boulding, 1942 for a past mid century state of the art discussion) to the knowledge based theory of the firm (Nonaka & Takeuchi, 1995; Nonaka & Toyama, 2005), which recognizes in the firm a knnowledge creating entity, with specific organizational capabilities (Teece, 1996; Teece & Pisano, 1998) that allow to sustaine competitive advantages. Tracing back a map of the theory of the firm evolution, taking into account the several perspectives adopted in the history of thought, would take the length of many books. Because of that a more fruitful strategy is circumscribing the focus of the description of the literature evolution to one flow connected to a crucial question about the nature of firm’s behaviour and about the determinants of competitive advantages. In so doing I adopt a perspective that allows me to consider the organizational structure of the firm as an element according to which the different theories can be discriminated. The approach adopted starts by considering the drawbacks of the standard neoclassical theory of the firm. Discussing the most influential theoretical approaches I end up with a close examination of the knowledge based perspective of the firm. Within this perspective the firm is considered as a knowledge creating entity that produce and mange knowledge (Nonaka, Toyama, & Nagata, 2000; Nonaka & Toyama, 2005). In a knowledge intensive organization, knowledge is clearly embedded for the most part in the human capital of the individuals that compose such an organization. In a knowledge based organization, the management, in order to cope with knowledge intensive productions, ought to develop and accumulate capabilities that shape the organizational forms in a way that relies on “cross-functional processes, extensive delayering and empowerment” (Foss 2005, p.12). This mechanism contributes to determine the absorptive capacity of the firm towards specific technologies and, in so doing, it also shape the technological trajectories along which the firm moves. After having recognized the growing importance of the firm’s organizational structure in the theoretical literature concerning the firm theory, the subsequent point of the analysis is that of providing an overview of the changes that have been occurred at micro level to the firm’s organization of production. The economic actors have to deal with challenges posed by processes of internationalisation and globalization, increased and increasing competitive pressure of less developed countries on low value added production activities, changes in technologies and increased environmental turbulence and volatility. As a consequence, it has been widely recognized that the main organizational models of production that fitted well in the 20th century are now partially inadequate and processes aiming to reorganize production activities have been widespread across several economies in recent years. Recently, the emergence of a “new” form of production organization has been proposed both by scholars, practitioners and institutions: the most prominent characteristic of such a model is its recognition of the importance of employees commitment and involvement. As a consequence it is characterized by a strong accent on the human resource management and on those practices that aim to widen the autonomy and responsibility of the workers as well as increasing their commitment to the organization (Osterman, 1994; 2000; Lynch, 2007). This “model” of production organization is by many defined as High Performance Work System (HPWS). Despite the increasing diffusion of workplace practices that may be inscribed within the concept of HPWS in western countries’ companies, it is an hazard, to some extent, to speak about the emergence of a “new organizational paradigm”. The discussion about organizational changes and the diffusion of HPWP the focus cannot abstract from a discussion about the industrial relations systems, with a particular accent on the employment relationships, because of their relevance, in the same way as production organization, in determining two major outcomes of the firm: innovation and economic performances. The argument is treated starting from the issue of the Social Dialogue at macro level, both in an European perspective and Italian perspective. The model of interaction between the social parties has repercussions, at micro level, on the employment relationships, that is to say on the relations between union delegates and management or workers and management. Finding economic and social policies capable of sustaining growth and employment within a knowledge based scenario is likely to constitute the major challenge for the next generation of social pacts, which are the main social dialogue outcomes. As Acocella and Leoni (2007) put forward the social pacts may constitute an instrument to trade wage moderation for high intensity in ICT, organizational and human capital investments. Empirical evidence, especially focused on the micro level, about the positive relation between economic growth and new organizational designs coupled with ICT adoption and non adversarial industrial relations is growing. Partnership among social parties may become an instrument to enhance firm competitiveness. The outcome of the discussion is the integration of organizational changes and industrial relations elements within a unified framework: the HPWS. Such a choice may help in disentangling the potential existence of complementarities between these two aspects of the firm internal structure on economic and innovative performance. With the third chapter starts the more original part of the thesis. The data utilized in order to disentangle the relations between HPWS practices, innovation and economic performance refer to the manufacturing firms of the Reggio Emilia province with more than 50 employees. The data have been collected through face to face interviews both to management (199 respondents) and to union representatives (181 respondents). Coupled with the cross section datasets a further data source is constituted by longitudinal balance sheets (1994-2004). Collecting reliable data that in turn provide reliable results needs always a great effort to which are connected uncertain results. Data at micro level are often subjected to a trade off: the wider is the geographical context to which the population surveyed belong the lesser is the amount of information usually collected (low level of resolution); the narrower is the focus on specific geographical context, the higher is the amount of information usually collected (high level of resolution). For the Italian case the evidence about the diffusion of HPWP and their effects on firm performances is still scanty and usually limited to local level studies (Cristini, et al., 2003). The thesis is also devoted to the deepening of an argument of particular interest: the existence of complementarities between the HPWS practices. It has been widely shown by empirical evidence that when HPWP are adopted in bundles they are more likely to impact on firm’s performances than when adopted in isolation (Ichniowski, Prennushi, Shaw, 1997). Is it true also for the local production system of Reggio Emilia? The empirical analysis has the precise aim of providing evidence on the relations between the HPWS dimensions and the innovative and economic performances of the firm. As far as the first line of analysis is concerned it must to be stressed the fundamental role that innovation plays in the economy (Geroski & Machin, 1993; Stoneman & Kwoon 1994, 1996; OECD, 2005; EC, 2002). On this point the evidence goes from the traditional innovations, usually approximated by R&D investment expenditure or number of patents, to the introduction and adoption of ICT, in the recent years (Brynjolfsson & Hitt, 2000). If innovation is important then it is critical to analyse its determinants. In this work it is hypothesised that organizational changes and firm level industrial relations/employment relations aspects that can be put under the heading of HPWS, influence the propensity to innovate in product, process and quality of the firm. The general argument may goes as follow: changes in production management and work organization reconfigure the absorptive capacity of the firm towards specific technologies and, in so doing, they shape the technological trajectories along which the firm moves; cooperative industrial relations may lead to smother adoption of innovations, because not contrasted by unions. From the first empirical chapter emerges that the different types of innovations seem to respond in different ways to the HPWS variables. The underlying processes of product, process and quality innovations are likely to answer to different firm’s strategies and needs. Nevertheless, it is possible to extract some general results in terms of the most influencing HPWS factors on innovative performance. The main three aspects are training coverage, employees involvement and the diffusion of bonuses. These variables show persistent and significant relations with all the three innovation types. The same do the components having such variables at their inside. In sum the aspects of the HPWS influence the propensity to innovate of the firm. At the same time, emerges a quite neat (although not always strong) evidence of complementarities presence between HPWS practices. In terns of the complementarity issue it can be said that some specific complementarities exist. Training activities, when adopted and managed in bundles, are related to the propensity to innovate. Having a sound skill base may be an element that enhances the firm’s capacity to innovate. It may enhance both the capacity to absorbe exogenous innovation and the capacity to endogenously develop innovations. The presence and diffusion of bonuses and the employees involvement also spur innovative propensity. The former because of their incentive nature and the latter because direct workers participation may increase workers commitment to the organizationa and thus their willingness to support and suggest inovations. The other line of analysis provides results on the relation between HPWS and economic performances of the firm. There have been a bulk of international empirical studies on the relation between organizational changes and economic performance (Black & Lynch 2001; Zwick 2004; Janod & Saint-Martin 2004; Huselid 1995; Huselid & Becker 1996; Cappelli & Neumark 2001), while the works aiming to capture the relations between economic performance and unions or industrial relations aspects are quite scant (Addison & Belfield, 2001; Pencavel, 2003; Machin & Stewart, 1990; Addison, 2005). In the empirical analysis the integration of the two main areas of the HPWS represent a scarcely exploited approach in the panorama of both national and international empirical studies. As remarked by Addison “although most analysis of workers representation and employee involvement/high performance work practices have been conducted in isolation – while sometimes including the other as controls – research is beginning to consider their interactions” (Addison, 2005, p.407). The analysis conducted exploiting temporal lags between dependent and covariates, possibility given by the merger of cross section and panel data, provides evidence in favour of the existence of HPWS practices impact on firm’s economic performance, differently measured. Although it does not seem to emerge robust evidence on the existence of complementarities among HPWS aspects on performances there is evidence of a general positive influence of the single practices. The results are quite sensible to the time lags, inducing to hypothesize that time varying heterogeneity is an important factor in determining the impact of organizational changes on economic performance. The implications of the analysis can be of help both to management and local level policy makers. Although the results are not simply extendible to other local production systems it may be argued that for contexts similar to the Reggio Emilia province, characterized by the presence of small and medium enterprises organized in districts and by a deep rooted unionism, with strong supporting institutions, the results and the implications here obtained can also fit well. However, a hope for future researches on the subject treated in the present work is that of collecting good quality information over wider geographical areas, possibly at national level, and repeated in time. Only in this way it is possible to solve the Gordian knot about the linkages between innovation, performance, high performance work practices and industrial relations.

Effects of environmental complexity on neurogenesis in the hippocampal dentate gyrus

Introduction. Postnatal neurogenesis in the hippocampal dentate gyrus, can be modulated by numerous determinants, such as hormones, transmitters and stress. Among the factors positively interfering with neurogenesis, the complexity of the environment appears to play a particularly striking role. Adult mice reared in an enriched environment produce more neurons and exhibit better performance in hippocampus-specific learning tasks. While the effects of complex environments on hippocampal neurogenesis are well documented, there is a lack of information on the effects of living under socio-sensory deprivation conditions. Due to the immaturity of rats and mice at birth, studies dealing with the effects of environmental enrichment on hippocampal neurogenesis were carried out in adult animals, i.e. during a period of relatively low rate of neurogenesis. The impact of environment is likely to be more dramatic during the first postnatal weeks, because at this time granule cell production is remarkably higher than at later phases of development. The aim of the present research was to clarify whether and to what extent isolated or enriched rearing conditions affect hippocampal neurogenesis during the early postnatal period, a time window characterized by a high rate of precursor proliferation and to elucidate the mechanisms underlying these effects. The experimental model chosen for this research was the guinea pig, a precocious rodent, which, at 4-5 days of age can be independent from maternal care. Experimental design. Animals were assigned to a standard (control), an isolated, or an enriched environment a few days after birth (P5-P6). On P14-P17 animals received one daily bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) injection, to label dividing cells, and were sacrificed either on P18, to evaluate cell proliferation or on P45, to evaluate cell survival and differentiation. Methods. Brain sections were processed for BrdU immunhistochemistry, to quantify the new born and surviving cells. The phenotype of the surviving cells was examined by means of confocal microscopy and immunofluorescent double-labeling for BrdU and either a marker of neurons (NeuN) or a marker of astrocytes (GFAP). Apoptotic cell death was examined with the TUNEL method. Serial sections were processed for immunohistochemistry for i) vimentin, a marker of radial glial cells, ii) BDNF (brain-derived neurotrofic factor), a neurotrophin involved in neuron proliferation/survival, iii) PSA-NCAM (the polysialylated form of the neural cell adhesion molecule), a molecule associated with neuronal migration. Total granule cell number in the dentate gyrus was evaluated by stereological methods, in Nissl-stained sections. Results. Effects of isolation. In P18 isolated animals we found a reduced cell proliferation (-35%) compared to controls and a lower expression of BDNF. Though in absolute terms P45 isolated animals had less surviving cells than controls, they showed no differences in survival rate and phenotype percent distribution compared to controls. Evaluation of the absolute number of surviving cells of each phenotype showed that isolated animals had a reduced number of cells with neuronal phenotype than controls. Looking at the location of the new neurons, we found that while in control animals 76% of them had migrated to the granule cell layer, in isolated animals only 55% of the new neurons had reached this layer. Examination of radial glia cells of P18 and P45 animals by vimentin immunohistochemistry showed that in isolated animals radial glia cells were reduced in density and had less and shorter processes. Granule cell count revealed that isolated animals had less granule cells than controls (-32% at P18 and -42% at P45). Effects of enrichment. In P18 enriched animals there was an increase in cell proliferation (+26%) compared to controls and a higher expression of BDNF. Though in both groups there was a decline in the number of BrdU-positive cells by P45, enriched animals had more surviving cells (+63) and a higher survival rate than controls. No differences were found between control and enriched animals in phenotype percent distribution. Evaluation of the absolute number of cells of each phenotype showed that enriched animals had a larger number of cells of each phenotype than controls. Looking at the location of cells of each phenotype we found that enriched animals had more new neurons in the granule cell layer and more astrocytes and cells with undetermined phenotype in the hilus. Enriched animals had a higher expression of PSA-NCAM in the granule cell layer and hilus Vimentin immunohistochemistry showed that in enriched animals radial glia cells were more numerous and had more processes.. Granule cell count revealed that enriched animals had more granule cells than controls (+37% at P18 and +31% at P45). Discussion. Results show that isolation rearing reduces hippocampal cell proliferation but does not affect cell survival, while enriched rearing increases both cell proliferation and cell survival. Changes in the expression of BDNF are likely to contribute to he effects of environment on precursor cell proliferation. The reduction and increase in final number of granule neurons in isolated and enriched animals, respectively, are attributable to the effects of environment on cell proliferation and survival and not to changes in the differentiation program. As radial glia cells play a pivotal role in neuron guidance to the granule cell layer, the reduced number of radial glia cells in isolated animals and the increased number in enriched animals suggests that the size of radial glia population may change dynamically, in order to match changes in neuron production. The high PSA-NCAM expression in enriched animals may concur to favor the survival of the new neurons by facilitating their migration to the granule cell layer. Conclusions. By using a precocious rodent we could demonstrate that isolated/enriched rearing conditions, at a time window during which intense granule cell proliferation takes place, lead to a notable decrease/increase of total granule cell number. The time-course and magnitude of postnatal granule cell production in guinea pigs are more similar to the human and non-human primate condition than in rats and mice. Translation of current data to humans would imply that exposure of children to environments poor/rich of stimuli may have a notably large impact on dentate neurogenesis and, very likely, on hippocampus dependent memory functions.

Modelli non lineari statici e dinamici su dati microeconomici: analisi delle condizioni finanziarie delle famiglie italiane

The thesis studies the economic and financial conditions of Italian households, by using microeconomic data of the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) over the period 1998-2006. It develops along two lines of enquiry. First it studies the determinants of households holdings of assets and liabilities and estimates their correlation degree. After a review of the literature, it estimates two non-linear multivariate models on the interactions between assets and liabilities with repeated cross-sections. Second, it analyses households financial difficulties. It defines a quantitative measure of financial distress and tests, by means of non-linear dynamic probit models, whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulties is persistent over time. Chapter 1 provides a critical review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the estimation of assets and liabilities holdings, on their interactions and on households net wealth. The review stresses the fact that a large part of the literature explain households debt holdings as a function, among others, of net wealth, an assumption that runs into possible endogeneity problems. Chapter 2 defines two non-linear multivariate models to study the interactions between assets and liabilities held by Italian households. Estimation refers to a pooling of cross-sections of SHIW. The first model is a bivariate tobit that estimates factors affecting assets and liabilities and their degree of correlation with results coherent with theoretical expectations. To tackle the presence of non normality and heteroskedasticity in the error term, generating non consistent tobit estimators, semi-parametric estimates are provided that confirm the results of the tobit model. The second model is a quadrivariate probit on three different assets (safe, risky and real) and total liabilities; the results show the expected patterns of interdependence suggested by theoretical considerations. Chapter 3 reviews the methodologies for estimating non-linear dynamic panel data models, drawing attention to the problems to be dealt with to obtain consistent estimators. Specific attention is given to the initial condition problem raised by the inclusion of the lagged dependent variable in the set of explanatory variables. The advantage of using dynamic panel data models lies in the fact that they allow to simultaneously account for true state dependence, via the lagged variable, and unobserved heterogeneity via individual effects specification. Chapter 4 applies the models reviewed in Chapter 3 to analyse financial difficulties of Italian households, by using information on net wealth as provided in the panel component of the SHIW. The aim is to test whether households persistently experience financial difficulties over time. A thorough discussion is provided of the alternative approaches proposed by the literature (subjective/qualitative indicators versus quantitative indexes) to identify households in financial distress. Households in financial difficulties are identified as those holding amounts of net wealth lower than the value corresponding to the first quartile of net wealth distribution. Estimation is conducted via four different methods: the pooled probit model, the random effects probit model with exogenous initial conditions, the Heckman model and the recently developed Wooldridge model. Results obtained from all estimators accept the null hypothesis of true state dependence and show that, according with the literature, less sophisticated models, namely the pooled and exogenous models, over-estimate such persistence.

Patterns of regional differentiation in post-Soviet Russia

This doctoral thesis aims at contributing to the literature on transition economies focusing on the Russian Federations and in particular on regional income convergence and fertility patterns. The first two chapter deal with the issue of income convergence across regions. Chapter 1 provides an historical-institutional analysis of the period between the late years of the Soviet Union and the last decade of economic growth and a presentation of the sample with a description of gross regional product composition, agrarian or industrial vocation, labor. Chapter 2 contributes to the literature on exploratory spatial data analysis with a application to a panel of 77 regions in the period 1994-2008. It provides an analysis of spatial patterns and it extends the theoretical framework of growth regressions controlling for spatial correlation and heterogeneity. Chapter 3 analyses the national demographic patterns since 1960 and provides a review of the policies on maternity leave and family benefits. Data sources are the Statistical Yearbooks of USSR, the Statistical Yearbooks of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and the Demographic Yearbooks of Russia. Chapter 4 analyses the demographic patterns in light of the theoretical framework of the Becker model, the Second Demographic Transition and an economic-crisis argument. With national data from 1960, the theoretically issue of the pro or countercyclical relation between income and fertility is graphically analyzed and discussed, together with female employment and education. With regional data after 1994 different panel data models are tested. Individual level data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey are employed using the logit model. Chapter 5 employs data from the Generations and Gender Survey by UNECE to focus on postponement and second births intentions. Postponement is studied through cohort analysis of mean maternal age at first birth, while the methodology used for second birth intentions is the ordered logit model.

Multilevel Analysis in Household Survey: An Application to Health Condition Data

The aim of this thesis is to apply multilevel regression model in context of household surveys. Hierarchical structure in this type of data is characterized by many small groups. In last years comparative and multilevel analysis in the field of perceived health have grown in size. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a multilevel analysis with three level of hierarchy for Physical Component Summary outcome to: evaluate magnitude of within and between variance at each level (individual, household and municipality); explore which covariates affect on perceived physical health at each level; compare model-based and design-based approach in order to establish informativeness of sampling design; estimate a quantile regression for hierarchical data. The target population are the Italian residents aged 18 years and older. Our study shows a high degree of homogeneity within level 1 units belonging from the same group, with an intraclass correlation of 27% in a level-2 null model. Almost all variance is explained by level 1 covariates. In fact, in our model the explanatory variables having more impact on the outcome are disability, unable to work, age and chronic diseases (18 pathologies). An additional analysis are performed by using novel procedure of analysis :"Linear Quantile Mixed Model", named "Multilevel Linear Quantile Regression", estimate. This give us the possibility to describe more generally the conditional distribution of the response through the estimation of its quantiles, while accounting for the dependence among the observations. This has represented a great advantage of our models with respect to classic multilevel regression. The median regression with random effects reveals to be more efficient than the mean regression in representation of the outcome central tendency. A more detailed analysis of the conditional distribution of the response on other quantiles highlighted a differential effect of some covariate along the distribution.

Measurement and modeling of cloud condensation nuclei in continental air

Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of CCN in the atmosphere is essential to understand and describe the effects of aerosols in meteorological models. In this study, CCN properties were measured in polluted and pristine air of different continental regions, and the results were parameterized for efficient prediction of CCN concentrations.The continuous-flow CCN counter used for size-resolved measurements of CCN efficiency spectra (activation curves) was calibrated with ammonium sulfate and sodium chloride aerosols for a wide range of water vapor supersaturations (S=0.068% to 1.27%). A comprehensive uncertainty analysis showed that the instrument calibration depends strongly on the applied particle generation techniques, Köhler model calculations, and water activity parameterizations (relative deviations in S up to 25%). Laboratory experiments and a comparison with other CCN instruments confirmed the high accuracy and precision of the calibration and measurement procedures developed and applied in this study.The mean CCN number concentrations (NCCN,S) observed in polluted mega-city air and biomass burning smoke (Beijing and Pearl River Delta, China) ranged from 1000 cm−3 at S=0.068% to 16 000 cm−3 at S=1.27%, which is about two orders of magnitude higher than in pristine air at remote continental sites (Swiss Alps, Amazonian rainforest). Effective average hygroscopicity parameters, κ, describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles were derived from the measurement data. They varied in the range of 0.3±0.2, were size-dependent, and could be parameterized as a function of organic and inorganic aerosol mass fraction. At low S (≤0.27%), substantial portions of externally mixed CCN-inactive particles with much lower hygroscopicity were observed in polluted air (fresh soot particles with κ≈0.01). Thus, the aerosol particle mixing state needs to be known for highly accurate predictions of NCCN,S. Nevertheless, the observed CCN number concentrations could be efficiently approximated using measured aerosol particle number size distributions and a simple κ-Köhler model with a single proxy for the effective average particle hygroscopicity. The relative deviations between observations and model predictions were on average less than 20% when a constant average value of κ=0.3 was used in conjunction with variable size distribution data. With a constant average size distribution, however, the deviations increased up to 100% and more. The measurement and model results demonstrate that the aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the measurement results and parameterizations presented in this study can be directly implemented in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models for efficient description of the CCN activity of atmospheric aerosols.

Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Genetic dynamics across early life stages in the tropical tree Prunus africana (Rosaceae)

In many plant species, the genetic template of early life-stages is formed by animal-mediated pollination and seed dispersal and has profound impact on further recruitment and population dynamics. Understanding the impact of pollination and seed dispersal on genetic patterns is a central issue in plant population biology. In my thesis, I investigated (i) contemporary dispersal and gene flow distances as well as (ii) genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure (SGS) across subsequent recruitment stages in a population of the animal-pollinated and dispersed tree Prunus africana in Kakamega Forest, West Kenya. Using microsatellite markers and parentage analyses, I inferred distances of pollen dispersal (father-to-mother), seed dispersal/maternal gene flow (mother-to-offspring) as well as paternal gene flow (father-to-offspring) for four early life stages of the species (seeds and fruits, current year seedlings, seedlings ≤ 3yr, seedlings > 3yr). Distances of pollen and seed dispersal as well as paternal gene flow were significantly shorter than expected from the spatial arrangement of trees and sampling plots. They were not affected by the density of conspecific trees in the surrounding. At the propagule stage, mean pollen dispersal distances were considerably (23-fold) longer than seed dispersal distances, and paternal gene flow distances exceeded maternal gene flow by a factor of 25. Seed dispersal distances were remarkably restricted, potentially leading to a strong initial SGS. The initial genetic template created by pollination and seed dispersal was extensively altered during later recruitment stages. Potential Janzen-Connell effects led to markedly increasing distances between offspring and both parental trees in older life stages. This showed that distance and density-dependent mortality factors are not exclusively related to the mother tree, but also to the father. Across subsequent recruitment stages, the pollen to seed dispersal ratio and the paternal to maternal gene flow ratio dropped to 2.1 and 3.4, respectively, in seedlings > 3yr. The relative changes in effective pollen dispersal, seed dispersal, and paternal gene flow distances across recruitment stages elucidate the mechanisms affecting the contribution of the two processes pollen and seed dispersal to overall gene flow. Using the same six microsatellite loci, I analyzed genetic diversity and SGS across five life stages, from seed rain to adults. Levels of genetic diversity within the studied P. africana population were comparable to other Prunus species and did not vary across life stages. In congruence with the short seed dispersal distances, I found significant SGS in all life stages. SGS decreased from seed and early seedling stages to older juvenile stages, and it was higher in adults than in late juveniles of the next generation. A comparison of the data with direct assessments of contemporary gene flow patterns indicate that distance- or density-dependent mortality, potentially due to Janzen-Connell effects, led to the initial decrease in SGS. Intergeneration variation in SGS could have been driven by variation in demographic processes, the effect of overlapping generations, and local selection processes. Overall, my study showed that complex sequential processes during recruitment contribute to the spatial genetic structure of tree populations. It highlights the importance of a multistage perspective for a comprehensive understanding of the impact of animal-mediated pollen and seed dispersal on spatial population dynamics and genetic patterns of trees.

Shareholder protection and stock market development

The dissertation contains five parts: An introduction, three major chapters, and a short conclusion. The First Chapter starts from a survey and discussion of the studies on corporate law and financial development literature. The commonly used methods in these cross-sectional analyses are biased as legal origins are no longer valid instruments. Hence, the model uncertainty becomes a salient problem. The Bayesian Model Averaging algorithm is applied to test the robustness of empirical results in Djankov et al. (2008). The analysis finds that their constructed legal index is not robustly correlated with most of the various stock market outcome variables. The second Chapter looks into the effects of minority shareholders protection in corporate governance regime on entrepreneurs' ex ante incentives to undertake IPO. Most of the current literature focuses on the beneficial part of minority shareholder protection on valuation, while overlooks its private costs on entrepreneur's control. As a result, the entrepreneur trade-offs the costs of monitoring with the benefits of cheap sources of finance when minority shareholder protection improves. The theoretical predictions are empirically tested using panel data and GMM-sys estimator. The third Chapter investigates the corporate law and corporate governance reform in China. The corporate law in China regards shareholder control as the means to the ends of pursuing the interests of stakeholders, which is inefficient. The Chapter combines the recent development of theories of the firm, i.e., the team production theory and the property rights theory, to solve such problem. The enlightened shareholder value, which emphasizes on the long term valuation of the firm, should be adopted as objectives of listed firms. In addition, a move from the mandatory division of power between shareholder meeting and board meeting to the default regime, is proposed.

Design and Characterization of Curved and Spherical Flexure Hinges for Planar and Spatial Compliant Mechanisms

A flexure hinge is a flexible connector that can provide a limited rotational motion between two rigid parts by means of material deformation. These connectors can be used to substitute traditional kinematic pairs (like bearing couplings) in rigid-body mechanisms. When compared to their rigid-body counterpart, flexure hinges are characterized by reduced weight, absence of backlash and friction, part-count reduction, but restricted range of motion. There are several types of flexure hinges in the literature that have been studied and characterized for different applications. In our study, we have introduced new types of flexures with curved structures i.e. circularly curved-beam flexures and spherical flexures. These flexures have been utilized for both planar applications (e.g. articulated robotic fingers) and spatial applications (e.g. spherical compliant mechanisms). We have derived closed-form compliance equations for both circularly curved-beam flexures and spherical flexures. Each element of the spatial compliance matrix is analytically computed as a function of hinge dimensions and employed material. The theoretical model is then validated by comparing analytical data with the results obtained through Finite Element Analysis. A case study is also presented for each class of flexures, concerning the potential applications in the optimal design of planar and spatial compliant mechanisms. Each case study is followed by comparing the performance of these novel flexures with the performance of commonly used geometries in terms of principle compliance factors, parasitic motions and maximum stress demands. Furthermore, we have extended our study to the design and analysis of serial and parallel compliant mechanisms, where the proposed flexures have been employed to achieve spatial motions e.g. compliant spherical joints.