Inference for nonparametric high-frequency estimators with an application to time variation in betas

We consider the problem of conducting inference on nonparametric high-frequency estimators without knowing their asymptotic variances. We prove that a multivariate subsampling method achieves this goal under general conditions that were not previously available in the literature. We suggest a procedure for a data-driven choice of the bandwidth parameters. Our simulation study indicates that the subsampling method is much more robust than the plug-in method based on the asymptotic expression for the variance. Importantly, the subsampling method reliably estimates the variability of the Two Scale estimator even when its parameters are chosen to minimize the finite sample Mean Squared Error; in contrast, the plugin estimator substantially underestimates the sampling uncertainty. By construction, the subsampling method delivers estimates of the variance-covariance matrices that are always positive semi-definite. We use the subsampling method to study the dynamics of financial betas of six stocks on the NYSE. We document significant variation in betas within year 2006, and find that tick data captures more variation in betas than the data sampled at moderate frequencies such as every five or twenty minutes. To capture this variation we estimate a simple dynamic model for betas. The variance estimation is also important for the correction of the errors-in-variables bias in such models. We find that the bias corrections are substantial, and that betas are more persistent than the naive estimators would lead one to believe.

Permutation entropy based real-time chatter detection using audio signal in turning process

Machine tool chatter is an unfavorable phenomenon during metal cutting, which results in heavy vibration of cutting tool. With increase in depth of cut, the cutting regime changes from chatter-free cutting to one with chatter. In this paper, we propose the use of permutation entropy (PE), a conceptually simple and computationally fast measurement to detect the onset of chatter from the time series using sound signal recorded with a unidirectional microphone. PE can efficiently distinguish the regular and complex nature of any signal and extract information about the dynamics of the process by indicating sudden change in its value. Under situations where the data sets are huge and there is no time for preprocessing and fine-tuning, PE can effectively detect dynamical changes of the system. This makes PE an ideal choice for online detection of chatter, which is not possible with other conventional nonlinear methods. In the present study, the variation of PE under two cutting conditions is analyzed. Abrupt variation in the value of PE with increase in depth of cut indicates the onset of chatter vibrations. The results are verified using frequency spectra of the signals and the nonlinear measure, normalized coarse-grained information rate (NCIR).

Significance of Time Scales in Nonlinear Dynamical Analysis of Electroencephalogram Signals

We propose to show in this paper, that the time series obtained from biological systems such as human brain are invariably nonstationary because of different time scales involved in the dynamical process. This makes the invariant parameters time dependent. We made a global analysis of the EEG data obtained from the eight locations on the skull space and studied simultaneously the dynamical characteristics from various parts of the brain. We have proved that the dynamical parameters are sensitive to the time scales and hence in the study of brain one must identify all relevant time scales involved in the process to get an insight in the working of brain.

Development of Time - Frequency Techniques for Sonar Applications

Sonar signal processing comprises of a large number of signal processing algorithms for implementing functions such as Target Detection, Localisation, Classification, Tracking and Parameter estimation. Current implementations of these functions rely on conventional techniques largely based on Fourier Techniques, primarily meant for stationary signals. Interestingly enough, the signals received by the sonar sensors are often non-stationary and hence processing methods capable of handling the non-stationarity will definitely fare better than Fourier transform based methods.Time-frequency methods(TFMs) are known as one of the best DSP tools for nonstationary signal processing, with which one can analyze signals in time and frequency domains simultaneously. But, other than STFT, TFMs have been largely limited to academic research because of the complexity of the algorithms and the limitations of computing power. With the availability of fast processors, many applications of TFMs have been reported in the fields of speech and image processing and biomedical applications, but not many in sonar processing. A structured effort, to fill these lacunae by exploring the potential of TFMs in sonar applications, is the net outcome of this thesis. To this end, four TFMs have been explored in detail viz. Wavelet Transform, Fractional Fourier Transfonn, Wigner Ville Distribution and Ambiguity Function and their potential in implementing five major sonar functions has been demonstrated with very promising results. What has been conclusively brought out in this thesis, is that there is no "one best TFM" for all applications, but there is "one best TFM" for each application. Accordingly, the TFM has to be adapted and tailored in many ways in order to develop specific algorithms for each of the applications.

Some concepts and models usefulninthe analysis of discrete life time data

This thesis entitled Reliability Modelling and Analysis in Discrete time Some Concepts and Models Useful in the Analysis of discrete life time data.The present study consists of five chapters. In Chapter II we take up the derivation of some general results useful in reliability modelling that involves two component mixtures. Expression for the failure rate, mean residual life and second moment of residual life of the mixture distributions in terms of the corresponding quantities in the component distributions are investigated. Some applications of these results are also pointed out. The role of the geometric,Waring and negative hypergeometric distributions as models of life lengths in the discrete time domain has been discussed already. While describing various reliability characteristics, it was found that they can be often considered as a class. The applicability of these models in single populations naturally extends to the case of populations composed of sub-populations making mixtures of these distributions worth investigating. Accordingly the general properties, various reliability characteristics and characterizations of these models are discussed in chapter III. Inference of parameters in mixture distribution is usually a difficult problem because the mass function of the mixture is a linear function of the component masses that makes manipulation of the likelihood equations, leastsquare function etc and the resulting computations.very difficult. We show that one of our characterizations help in inferring the parameters of the geometric mixture without involving computational hazards. As mentioned in the review of results in the previous sections, partial moments were not studied extensively in literature especially in the case of discrete distributions. Chapters IV and V deal with descending and ascending partial factorial moments. Apart from studying their properties, we prove characterizations of distributions by functional forms of partial moments and establish recurrence relations between successive moments for some well known families. It is further demonstrated that partial moments are equally efficient and convenient compared to many of the conventional tools to resolve practical problems in reliability modelling and analysis. The study concludes by indicating some new problems that surfaced during the course of the present investigation which could be the subject for a future work in this area.

Time-dependent heat capacity of Mn12 clusters

In this paper we discuss both theoretical and experimental results on the time dependence of the heat capacity of oriented Mn12 magnetic clusters when a magnetic field is applied along their easy axis. Our calculations are based on the existence of two contributions. The first one is associated with the thermal populations of the 21 different Sz levels in the two potential wells of the magnetic uniaxial anisotropy and the second one is related to the transitions between the Sz levels. We compare our theoretical predictions with experimental data on the heat capacity for different resolution times at different fields and temperatures.

Evidence of a critical time in constrained Kinetic Ising models

We study the relaxational dynamics of the one-spin facilitated Ising model introduced by Fredrickson and Andersen. We show the existence of a critical time which separates an initial regime in which the relaxation is exponentially fast and aging is absent from a regime in which relaxation becomes slow and aging effects are present. The presence of this fast exponential process and its associated critical time is in agreement with some recent experimental results on fragile glasses.

Femtosecond real-time probing of reactions. 13. Multiphoton dynamics of IHgI

Real-time studies of the dynamics were performed on the reaction of HgI_2 in a molecular beam. Excitation was by either one or multi pump photons (311 nm), leading to two separate sets of dynamics, each of which could be investigated by a time-delayed probe laser (622 nm) that ionized the parent molecule and the fragments by REMPI processes. These dynamics were distinguished by combining the information from transients taken at each mass (HgI_2, HgI, I_2, Hg, and I) with the results of pump (and probe) power dependence studies on each mass. A method of plotting the slope of the intensity dependence against the pump-probe time delay proved essential. In the preceding publication, we detailed the dynamics of the reaction initiated by a one photon excitation to the A-continuum. Here, we present studies of higher-energy states. Multiphoton excitation accesses predissociative states of HgI_2, for which there are crossings into the symmetric and asymmetric stretch coordinates. The dynamics of these channels, which lead to atomic (I or Hg) and diatomic (HgI) fragments, are discussed and related to the nature of the intermediates along the reaction pathway.

Femtosecond time-resolved molecular multiphoton ionization and fragmentation of Na_2

We present a comparison between experimental and theoretical results for pump/probe multiphoton ionizing transitions of the sodium dimer, initiated by femtosecond laser pulses. It is shown that the motion of vibrational wavepackets in two electronic states is probed simultaneously and their dynamics is reflected in the total Na^+_2 ion signal which is recorded as a function of the time delay between pump and probe pulse. The time dependent quantum calculations demonstrate that two ionization pathways leading to the same final states of the molecularion exist: one gives an oscillating contribution to the ion signal, the other yields a constant background. From additional measurements of the Na^+ -transient photofragmentation spectrum it is deduced that another ionization process leading to different final ionic states exists. The process includes the excitation of a doubly excitedbound Rydberg state. This conclusion is supported by the theoretical simulation.

Incremental Verification of Timing Constraints for Real-Time Systems

Testing constraints for real-time systems are usually verified through the satisfiability of propositional formulae. In this paper, we propose an alternative where the verification of timing constraints can be done by counting the number of truth assignments instead of boolean satisfiability. This number can also tell us how “far away” is a given specification from satisfying its safety assertion. Furthermore, specifications and safety assertions are often modified in an incremental fashion, where problematic bugs are fixed one at a time. To support this development, we propose an incremental algorithm for counting satisfiability. Our proposed incremental algorithm is optimal as no unnecessary nodes are created during each counting. This works for the class of path RTL. To illustrate this application, we show how incremental satisfiability counting can be applied to a well-known rail-road crossing example, particularly when its specification is still being refined.

The Benefits of Re-Evaluating Real-Time Fulfillment Decisions

At the time of a customer order, the e-tailer assigns the order to one or more of its order fulfillment centers, and/or to drop shippers, so as to minimize procurement and transportation costs, based on the available current information. However this assignment is necessarily myopic as it cannot account for all future events, such as subsequent customer orders or inventory replenishments. We examine the potential benefits from periodically re-evaluating these real-time order-assignment decisions. We construct near-optimal heuristics for the re-assignment for a large set of customer orders with the objective to minimize the total number of shipments. We investigate how best to implement these heuristics for a rolling horizon, and discuss the effect of demand correlation, customer order size, and the number of customer orders on the nature of the heuristics. Finally, we present potential saving opportunities by testing the heuristics on sets of order data from a major e-tailer.

An Extension to the Tactical Planning Model for a Job Shop: Continuous-Time Control

We develop an extension to the tactical planning model (TPM) for a job shop by the third author. The TPM is a discrete-time model in which all transitions occur at the start of each time period. The time period must be defined appropriately in order for the model to be meaningful. Each period must be short enough so that a job is unlikely to travel through more than one station in one period. At the same time, the time period needs to be long enough to justify the assumptions of continuous workflow and Markovian job movements. We build an extension to the TPM that overcomes this restriction of period sizing by permitting production control over shorter time intervals. We achieve this by deriving a continuous-time linear control rule for a single station. We then determine the first two moments of the production level and queue length for the workstation.

Multivariate ARIMA Compositional Time Series Analysis

A compositional time series is obtained when a compositional data vector is observed at different points in time. Inherently, then, a compositional time series is a multivariate time series with important constraints on the variables observed at any instance in time. Although this type of data frequently occurs in situations of real practical interest, a trawl through the statistical literature reveals that research in the field is very much in its infancy and that many theoretical and empirical issues still remain to be addressed. Any appropriate statistical methodology for the analysis of compositional time series must take into account the constraints which are not allowed for by the usual statistical techniques available for analysing multivariate time series. One general approach to analyzing compositional time series consists in the application of an initial transform to break the positive and unit sum constraints, followed by the analysis of the transformed time series using multivariate ARIMA models. In this paper we discuss the use of the additive log-ratio, centred log-ratio and isometric log-ratio transforms. We also present results from an empirical study designed to explore how the selection of the initial transform affects subsequent multivariate ARIMA modelling as well as the quality of the forecasts

Discovering similarities in the time use patterns of the Spanish Autonomous Communities by Fuzzy techniques

In 2000 the European Statistical Office published the guidelines for developing the Harmonized European Time Use Surveys system. Under such a unified framework, the first Time Use Survey of national scope was conducted in Spain during 2002– 03. The aim of these surveys is to understand human behavior and the lifestyle of people. Time allocation data are of compositional nature in origin, that is, they are subject to non-negativity and constant-sum constraints. Thus, standard multivariate techniques cannot be directly applied to analyze them. The goal of this work is to identify homogeneous Spanish Autonomous Communities with regard to the typical activity pattern of their respective populations. To this end, fuzzy clustering approach is followed. Rather than the hard partitioning of classical clustering, where objects are allocated to only a single group, fuzzy method identify overlapping groups of objects by allowing them to belong to more than one group. Concretely, the probabilistic fuzzy c-means algorithm is conveniently adapted to deal with the Spanish Time Use Survey microdata. As a result, a map distinguishing Autonomous Communities with similar activity pattern is drawn. Key words: Time use data, Fuzzy clustering; FCM; simplex space; Aitchison distance

Bandwidth allocation based on real time calculations using the convolution approach

This paper focuses on one of the methods for bandwidth allocation in an ATM network: the convolution approach. The convolution approach permits an accurate study of the system load in statistical terms by accumulated calculations, since probabilistic results of the bandwidth allocation can be obtained. Nevertheless, the convolution approach has a high cost in terms of calculation and storage requirements. This aspect makes real-time calculations difficult, so many authors do not consider this approach. With the aim of reducing the cost we propose to use the multinomial distribution function: the enhanced convolution approach (ECA). This permits direct computation of the associated probabilities of the instantaneous bandwidth requirements and makes a simple deconvolution process possible. The ECA is used in connection acceptance control, and some results are presented