Time-varying coefficients in the almost ideal demand system: An empirical appraisal

This paper provides a generalisation of the structural time series version of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) that allows for time-varying coefficients (TVC/AIDS) in the presence of cross-equation constraints. An empirical appraisal of the TVC/AIDS is made using a dynamic AIDS with trending intercept as the baseline model with a data set from the Italian Household Budget Survey (1986-2001). The assessment is based on four criteria: adherence to theoretical constraints, statistical diagnostics on residuals, forecasting performance and economic meaningfulness. No clear evidence is found for superior performance of the TVC/AIDS, apart from improved short-term forecasts.

Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inclusion of nonlinear demand-supply relationships within large-scale partial equilibrium linear programming models

This paper presents a new method for the inclusion of nonlinear demand and supply relationships within a linear programming model. An existing method for this purpose is described first and its shortcomings are pointed out before showing how the new approach overcomes those difficulties and how it provides a more accurate and 'smooth' (rather than a kinked) approximation of the nonlinear functions as well as dealing with equilibrium under perfect competition instead of handling just the monopolistic situation. The workings of the proposed method are illustrated by extending a previously available sectoral model for the UK agriculture.

Testing symmetry and homogeneity in the almost ideal demand system with co-integrated data using fully modified estimation and the bootstrap

Conventional seemingly unrelated estimation of the almost ideal demand system is shown to lead to small sample bias and distortions in the size of a Wald test for symmetry and homogeneity when the data are co-integrated. A fully modified estimator is developed in an attempt to remedy these problems. It is shown that this estimator reduces the small sample bias but fails to eliminate the size distortion.. Bootstrapping is shown to be ineffective as a method of removing small sample bias in both the conventional and fully modified estimators. Bootstrapping is effective, however, as a method of removing. size distortion and performs equally well in this respect with both estimators.

Do all tannins have similar nutritional effects? A comparison of three Brazilian fodder legumes

Three tropical legumes, namely Leucaena leucocephala, Sesbania sesban and Cajanus cajan, were subjected to chemical analysis plus in vitro, in situ and in vivo evaluations. Three different assays were used to determine total tannins: adsorption to polyvinyl pyrrolidine (PVPP-tannins), radial diffusion (RD-tannins) and protein precipitation capacity (BSA-tannins). Total phenols, total tannins and condensed tannins were highest for Sesbania. RD-tannins were correlated with total phenols (r(2) = 0.93), PVPP-tannins (r(2) = 0.92) and condensed tannins (r(2) = 0.99). The protein precipitation capacity of Sesbania, Leucaena and Cajanus were 25.9, 6.13 and 4.05 mu g BSA/g DM, respectively. Gas production at 24h was negatively correlated with total phenols (r(2) = 0.99), PVPP-tannins (r(2) = 0.99) and condensed tannins (r(2) = 0.91). The RD-, PVPP-tannins and the response to polyethylene glycol (PEG) in the gas production assay appeared to be useful as a first screen for tannins. In situ degradability did not reflect any adverse effects of tannins. However, in vivo experiments showed that the apparent DM digestibility of Sesbania and Leucaena was lower than the basal diet. The apparent protein digestibility was lower for all legumes compared to the basal diet. Most treatments caused a negative nitrogen balance. The problems associated with browse feeding were not only related to tannin contents, other factors such as inherently poor digestibility and low energy intake may also have lead to the poor animal performance on these diets. We propose, given the limitations of current tannin assays, that it is not possible to predict beneficial or harmful nutritional effects from total tannin concentrations per se. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of drying and urea treatment on nutritional and anti-nutritional components of browses collected during wet and dry seasons

Fibre, crude protein and tannin concentrations were measured in browse species from the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil during the dry and wet seasons. The effects of oven-, sun- and shade-drying and of urea treatment were also determined. Crude protein (CP) content varied from 103 to 161 g/kg dry matter (DM) and the browses had similar CP content in the two seasons (during 2002) (102-161 and 107-153 g/kg DM in the wet and dry seasons, respectively). Total tannin concentrations ranged from 13 to 201 g/kg DM amongst the browses and were higher in the dry season. A 30-d treatment with urea reduced extractable tannins significantly (P < 0.05). The urea treatment was also most effective at reducing the in vitro effects of tannins compared to the other drying treatments. This was demonstrated by measuring the effect of polyethylene glycol (PEG) on gas production. Addition of PEG increased gas production of oven- (81.4%), sun- (78.5%) and shade-dried (76.7%) samples much more compared to urea treated samples (10.9%). (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intracellular signalling pathways regulating the adaptation of skeletal muscle to exercise and nutritional changes

The focus of the present review is to assimilate current knowledge concerning the differing signalling transduction cascades that control muscle mass development and affect skeletal muscle phenotype following exercise or nutritional uptake. Effects of mechanical loading on protein synthesis are discussed. Muscle growth control is regulated by the interplay of growth promoting and growth suppressing factors, which act in concert. Much emphasis has been placed on understanding how increases in the rate of protein synthesis are induced in skeletal muscle during the adaptive process. One key point to emerge is that protein synthesis following resistance exercise or increased nutrient availability is mediated through changes in signal transduction involving the phosphorylation of mTOR and sequential activation of downstream targets. On the other hand, AMPK activation plays an important role in the inhibition of protein synthesis by suppressing the function of multiple translation regulators of the mTOR signalling pathway in response to cellular energy depletion and low metabolic conditions. The effects of exercise and/or nutritional uptake on the activation of signalling molecules that regulate protein synthesis are highlighted, providing a better understanding of the molecular changes in the cell.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Nutritional Significance of Lipid Rafts

The structure, size, stability, and functionality of lipid rafts are still in debate, but recent techniques allowing direct visualization have characterized them in a wide range of cell types. Lipid rafts are potentially modifiable by diet, particularly (but not exclusively) by dietary fatty acids. However, it is not clear whether dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) are incorporated into raft lipids or whether their low affinity to cholesterol disallows this and causes phase separation from rafts and displacement of raft proteins. This review examines the potential for dietary modification of raft structure and function in the immune system, brain and retinal tissue, the gut, and in cancer cells. Although there is increasing evidence to suggest that membrane microdomains, and their modulation, have an impact in health and disease, it is too early to judge whether modulation of lipid rafts is responsible for the immunomodulatory effects of n-3 PUFA. In addition to dietary fatty acids, gangliosides and cholesterol may also modulate microdomains in a number of tissues, and recent work has highlighted sphingolipids in membrane microdomains as potential targets for inhibition of tumor growth by n-3 PUFA. The roles of fatty acids and gangliosides in cognitive development, age-related cognitive decline, psychiatric disorders, and Alzheimer's disease are poorly understood and require clarification, particularly with respect to the contribution of lipid rafts. The roles of lipid rafts in cancer, in microbial pathogenesis, and in insulin resistance are only just emerging, but compelling evidence indicates the growing importance of membrane microdomains in health and disease.

Does gym use impact upon nutritional knowledge?

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate gym and non-gym users' use and understanding of nutrition labels. Design/methodology/approach - A consumer survey in the form of a questionnaire conducted in the Greater London area in February/March 2005. Subject recruitment process took place in both a gym and university setting. Frequency tables and chi(2)-test are used to assess relationships between variables (p = 0.05). Findings - The resulting sample consisted of 187 subjects, with predominance of females and gym users. Of the subjects, 88 per cent reported to at least occasionally read nutrition labels, with higher reading rates amongst women, irrespective of gym user status. Total and saturated fats are the most often information viewed on labels, however the overall knowledge of the calorie content of fat is low, with 53 per cent of subjects responding saturated fat contains more calories per gram when compared with other types of fats. This paper does not find significant differences in the use and understanding of nutrition labels between gym and non-gym users, but highlights the publics' continued lack of understanding of nutrition labels. Originality/value - This paper is unique as it investigates whether there is any difference between gym/non-gym users' use and interpretation of use of nutrition labels. It finds gender impacted more on nutritional labels knowledge than gym user's status. This points to a gender issue and questions the quality of information available to the general public. This paper is valuable as it highlights and identifies an area that requires further research and assessment, and is therefore useful to key stakeholders responsible for public health nutrition.