Interlinkages and forecasting made possible by the use of the DECOIN analytical tool kit

This technical report is a document prepared as a deliverable [D4.3 Report of the Interlinkages and forecasting prototype tool] of a EU project – DECOIN Project No. 044428 - FP6-2005-SSP-5A. The text is divided into 4 sections: (1) this short introductory section explains the purpose of the report; (2) the second section provides a general discussion of a systemic problem found in existing quantitative analysis of sustainability. It addresses the epistemological implications of complexity, which entails the need of dealing with the existence of Multiple-Scales and non-equivalent narratives (multiple dimensions/attributes) to be used to define sustainability issues. There is an unavoidable tension between a “steady-state view” (= the perception of what is going on now – reflecting a PAST --& PRESENT view of the reality) versus an “evolutionary view” (= the unknown transformation that we have to expect in the process of becoming of the observed reality and in the observer – reflecting a PRESENT --& FUTURE view of the reality). The section ends by listing the implications of these points on the choice of integrated packages of sustainability indicators; (3) the third section illustrates the potentiality of the DECOIN toolkit for the study of sustainability trade-offs and linkages across indicators using quantitative examples taken from cases study of another EU project (SMILE). In particular, this section starts by addressing the existence of internal constraints to sustainability (economic versus social aspects). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of ageing and immigration on the economic viability of social systems. Then the section continues by exploring external constraints to sustainability (economic development vs the environment). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of current strategy of economic development based on externalization and the “bubbles-disease”; (4) the last section presents a critical appraisal of the quality of energy data found in energy statistics. It starts with a discussion of the general goal of statistical accounting. Then it introduces the concept of multipurpose grammars. The second part uses the experience made in the activities of the DECOIN project to answer the question: how useful are EUROSTAT energy statistics? The answer starts with an analysis of basic epistemological problems associated with accounting of energy. This discussion leads to the acknowledgment of an important epistemological problem: the unavoidable bifurcations in the mechanism of accounting needed to generate energy statistics. By using numerical example the text deals with the following issues: (i) the pitfalls of the actual system of accounting in energy statistics; (ii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in BP statistics; (iii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in Eurostat statistics. The section ends by proposing an innovative method to represent energy statistics which can result more useful for those willing develop sustainability indicators.

Relations of the job demands-control-support model of job strain with personality attributes : a cross-cultural study in Switzerland and South Africa

Among the various work stress models, one of the most popular to date is the job demands-­‐control (JDC) model developed by Karasek (1979), which postulates that work-­‐related strain will be the highest under work conditions characterized by high demands and low autonomy. The absence of social support at work will further increase negative outcomes. However, this model does not apply equally to all individuals and to all cultures. In the following studies, we assessed work characteristics, personality traits, culture-­‐driven individual attributes, and work-­‐related health outcomes, through the administration of questionnaires. The samples consist of Swiss (n = 622) and South African (n = 879) service-­‐oriented employees (from health, finance, education and commerce sectors) and aged from 18 to 65 years old. Results generally confirm the universal contribution of high psychological demands, low decision latitude and low supervisor support at work, as well as high neuroticism predict the worse health outcomes among employees in both countries. Furthermore, low neuroticism plays a moderating role between psychological demands and burnout, while high openness and high conscientiousness each play a moderating role between decision latitude and burnout in South Africa. Results also reveal that culture-­‐driven individual attributes play a role in both countries, but in a unique manner and according to the ethnic group of belonging. Given that organizations are increasingly characterized with multicultural employees as well as increasingly adverse and complex job conditions, our results help in identifying more updated and refined dynamics that are key between the employee and the work environment in today's context. -- L'un des modèles sur le stress au travail des plus répandus est celui développé par Karasek (1979), qui postule qu'une mauvaise santé chez les employés résulte d'une combinaison de demandes psychologiques élevées, d'une latitude décisionnelle faible et de l'absence de soutien social au travail. Néanmoins, ce modèle ne s'applique pas de façon équivalente chez tous les individus et dans toutes les cultures. Dans les études présentées, nous avons mesuré les caractéristiques de travail, les traits de personnalité, les traits culturels et les effets lies à la santé à l'aide de questionnaires. L'échantillon provient de la Suisse (n = 622) et de l'Afrique du Sud (n = 879) et comprend des employés de domaines divers en lien avec le service (notamment des secteurs de la santé, finance, éducation et commerce) tous âgés entre 18 et 65 ans. Les résultats confirment l'universalité des effets directs des demandes au travail, la latitude décisionnelle faible, le soutien social faible provenant du supérieur hiérarchique, ainsi que le névrosisme élevé qui contribuent à un niveau de santé faible au travail, et ce, dans les deux pays. De plus, un niveau faible de névrosisme a un effet de modération entre les demandes au travail et l'épuisement professionnel, alors que l'ouverture élevée et le caractère consciencieux élevé modèrent la relation entre la latitude décisionnelle et l'épuisement professionnel en Afrique du Sud. Nous avons aussi trouvé que les traits culturels jouent un rôle dans les deux pays, mais de façon unique et en fonction du groupe ethnique d'appartenance. Sachant que les organisations sont de plus en plus caractérisées par des employés d'origine ethnique variées, et que les conditions de travail se complexifient, nos résultats contribuent à mieux comprendre les dynamiques entre l'employé et l'environnement de travail contemporain. personnalité, différences individuelles, comparaisons culturelles, culture, stress au travail, épuisement professionnel, santé des employés.

Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

T cell responses to repeat and non-repeat regions of the circumsporozoite protein detected in volunteers immunized with Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites

The design of malarial vaccine based on the circumsporozoite (CS) protein, a majuor surface antigen of the sporozoite stage of the malaria parasite, requires the identification of T and B cell epitopes for inclusion in recombinant or synthetic vaccine candidates. We have investigated the specificity and function of a series of T cell clones, derived from volunteers immunized with Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites in an effort to identify relevant epitopes in the immune response to the pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite. CD4+ T cell clones were obtained wich specifically recognized a repetitive epitope located in the 5'repeat region of the CS protein. This epitope, when conjugated to the 3'repeat region in a synthetic MAPs construct, induced high titers of antisporozoite antibodies in C57B1 mice. A second T cell epitope, which mapped to aa 326-345 of the carboxy terminal, was recognized by lytic, as well as non-lytic, CD4+ T cells derived from the sporozoite-immunized volunteers. The demonstration of CD4+ CTL in the volunteers, and the recent studies inthe rodent model (Renia et al., 1991; Tsuji et al., 1990), suggested that CS-specific CD4+ T cells, in addition to their indirect role as helper cells in the induction of antibody and CD8 + effector cells, may also play a direct role in protection against sporozoite challenge by targeting EEF within the liver.

The Maggia cross-fold: An enigmatic structure of the lower Penninic nappes of the Lepontine Alps

The geometry and kinematics of the map scale Maggia cross-fold structure has been studied by several generations of geologists over seventy years and different models have been proposed for its formation. New observations indicate that the Maggia structure is a SW-verging cross-fold created after earlier NW-directed overthrusting of the Maggia nappe onto the deeper Simano and Antigorio recumbent fold nappes. The nappe emplacement and later cross-folding occurred under amphibolite facies conditions by detachment of the upper European crust during its SE-directed underthrusting below the Adriatic plate.

Gaussian estimates for the density of the non-linear stochastic heat equation in any space dimension

In this paper, we establish lower and upper Gaussian bounds for the probability density of the mild solution to the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise and in any space dimension. The driving perturbation is a Gaussian noise which is white in time with some spatially homogeneous covariance. These estimates are obtained using tools of the Malliavin calculus. The most challenging part is the lower bound, which is obtained by adapting a general method developed by Kohatsu-Higa to the underlying spatially homogeneous Gaussian setting. Both lower and upper estimates have the same form: a Gaussian density with a variance which is equal to that of the mild solution of the corresponding linear equation with additive noise.

The role of the eosinophil-selective chemokine, eotaxin, in allergic and non-allergic airways inflammation

Blood eosinophilia and tissue infiltration by eosinophils are frequently observed in allergic inflammation and parasitic infections. This selective accumulation of eosinophils suggested the existence of endogenous eosinophil-selective chemoattractants. We have recently discovered a novel eosinophil-selective chemoattractant which we called eotaxin in an animal model of allergic airways disease. Eotaxin is generated in both allergic and non-allergic bronchopulmonary inflammation. The early increase in eotaxin paralled eosinophil infiltration in the lung tissue in both models. An antibody to IL-5 suppressed lung eosinophilia, correlating with an inhibition of eosinophil release from bone marrow, without affecting eotaxin generation. This suggests that endogenous IL-5 is important for eosinophil migration but does not appear to be a stimulus for eotaxin production. Constitutive levels of eotaxin observed in guinea-pig lung may be responsible for the basal lung eosinophilia observed in this species. Allergen-induced eotaxin was present mainly in the epithelium and alveolar macrophages, as detected by immunostaining. In contrast there was no upregulation of eotaxin by the epithelial cells following the injection of Sephadex beads and the alveolar macrophage and mononuclear cells surrounding the granuloma were the predominant positive staining cells. Eotaxin and related chemokines acting through the CCR3 receptor may play a major role in eosinophil recruitment in allergic inflammation and parasitic diseases and thus offer an attractive target for therapeutic intervention.

Biostratigraphy, mineralogy and geochemistry of the Trabakua Pass and Ermua sections in Spain: Paleocene-Eocene transition

Isotopic, geochemical and bulk mineralogical analyses in the Trabakua and Ermua sections, Basque Basin, reveal major changes across the Paleocene-Eocene transition. Expanded sedimentary records exhibit a gradual decrease of 1.0 parts per thousand in delta(13)C values in the lower part of Zone P5 followed by a more rapid 3 parts per thousand negative excursion. The 3 parts per thousand delta(13)C excursion is associated with an abrupt decrease in carbonate sedimentation, increased detrital flux and decreased grain size which suggest changes in marine/atmospheric currents and/or size and structure of the ocean carbon reservoir. The clays recognized at Trabakua record a deep burial diagenesis as indicated by two generations of chlorite, the presence of mixed-layers chlorite-smectite and illite-smectite, the absence of smectite and the near absence of kaolinite. The very low delta(18)O values (<-3.5 parts per thousand) throughout the Trabakua and Ermua sections reflect diagenetic alteration rather than paleotemperatures. Because of deep burial diagenesis and very poorly preserved microfossils, the Trabakua Pass and Ermua sections are not optimal potential stratotypes for the Paleocene-Eocene boundary.

Adolescent substance-use assessment: methodological issues in the use of the Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis (ADAD).

During the past twenty years, various instruments have been developed for the assessment of substance use in adolescents, mainly in the United States. However, few of them have been adapted to, and validated in, French-speaking populations. Consequently, although increasing alcohol and drug use among teenagers has become a major concern, the various health and social programs developed in response to this specific problem have received little attention with regard to follow-up and outcome assessment. A standardized multidimensional assessment instrument adapted for adolescents is needed to assess the individual needs of adolescents and assign them to the most appropriate treatment setting, to provide a single measurement within and across health and social systems, and to conduct treatment outcome evaluations. Moreover, having an available instrument makes it possible to develop longitudinal and transcultural research studies. For this reason, a French version of the Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis (ADAD) was developed and validated at the University Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Clinic in Lausanne, Switzerland. This article aims to discuss the methodological issues that we faced when using the ADAD instrument in a 4-year longitudinal study including adolescent substance users. Methodological aspects relating to the content and format of the instrument, the assessment administration and the statistical analyses are discussed.

The non-absoluteness of model existence in uncountable cardinals for Lw1,w

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French version of the addiction severity index (5th Edition): validity and reliability among Swiss opiate-dependent patients. French validation of the Addiction Severity Index.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to validate a French adaptation of the 5th version of the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) instrument in a Swiss sample of illicit drug users. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The participants in the study were 54 French-speaking dependent patients, most of them with opiates as the drug of first choice. Procedure: Analyses of internal consistency (convergent and discriminant validity) and reliability, including measures of test-retest and inter-observer correlations, were conducted. RESULTS: Besides good applicability of the test, the results on composite scores (CSs) indicate comparable results to those obtained in a sample of American opiate-dependent patients. Across the seven dimensions of the ASI, Cronbach's alpha ranged from 0.42 to 0.76, test-retest correlations coefficients ranged from 0.48 to 0.98, while for CSs, inter-observer correlations ranged from 0.76 to 0.99. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several limitations, the French version of the ASI presents acceptable criteria of applicability, validity and reliability in a sample of drug-dependent patients.

Distribution of Sandflies (Diptera:Psychodidae) on Tree-trunks in a Non-flooded Area of the Ducke Forest Reserve, Manaus, AM, Brazil

Sandflies were collected in the base of tree-trunks in the seasons of high and least rainfall in the Ducke Forest Reserve, near Manaus in the State of Amazonas. Lutzomyia umbratilis was the most abundant sandfly species. Caryocar villosum, Chrysophyllum amazonicum, Dinizia excelsa, Eschweilera atropetiolata and Parkia multijuga were the tree species on which most sandflies were collected and relative abundance were related to trunk characteristics. Seasonal patterns of sandfly distribution in the forest were observed.

Effects of Non-Susceptible Hosts on the Infection with Trypanosoma cruzi of the Vector Triatoma infestans: an Experimental Model

We tested experimentally the effects of the presence of non-susceptible hosts on the infection with Trypanosoma cruzi of the vector Triatoma infestans. The experiment consisted in two treatments: with chickens, including two chickens (non-susceptible hosts) and two infected guinea pigs (susceptible hosts), and without chickens, including only two infected guinea pigs. The hosts were held unrestrained in individual metal cages inside a closed tulle chamber. A total of 200 uninfected T. infestans third instar nymphs were liberated in each replica, collected on day 14, and examined for infection and blood meal sources on day 32-36. The additional presence of chickens relative to infected guinea pigs: (a) significantly modified the spatial distribution of bugs; (b) increased significantly the likelihoods of having a detectable blood meal on any host and molting to the next instar; (c) did not affect the bugs' probability of death by predation; and (d) decreased significantly the overall percentage of T. infestans infected with T. cruzi. The bugs collected from inside or close to the guinea pigs' cages showed a higher infection rate (71-88%) than those collected from the chickens' cages (22-32%). Mixed blood meals on chickens and guinea pigs were detected in 12-21% of bugs. Although the presence of chickens would decrease the overall percentage of infected bugs in short term experiments, the high rate of host change of T. infestans would make this difference fade out if longer exposure times had been provided.

IPH response to the Joint Committee on Health and Children and members of the Northern Ireland Assembly on “Cross-border cooperation on healthcare”

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland were asked to submit a paper on 'Cross-border cooperation on healthcare' for a joint meeting between the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Health and Children and the Northern Ireland Assembly Health Committee which took place in Leinster House on 1 March 2012. Key points from the submission included: o    The Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is an all-island organisation which promotes cooperation between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland with the aim of improving population health on the island and tackling health inequalities. IPH work is focused on addressing the causes of ill health rather than the design and delivery of treatment services. o    North/South cooperation on health was mandated under the Belfast Agreement in 1998 in five domains, including health promotion. IPH has supported the North South Ministerial Council (NSMC) in respect of the health promotion strand since inception. o    The Department of Health and Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety North-South Feasibility Study (December 2011) states that mutual benefits are most evident from cooperation in the areas of (i) anticipating trends and illnesses in a collective manner (ii) public health issues (iii) specialised services where the population or activity required to sustain the service cannot be met by either jurisdiction alone and (iv) in relation to those areas adjacent to the border. o    The European Directive on Cross-Border Healthcare will be implemented in the next few years which will have implications in relation to patients travelling for healthcare across the Republic of Ireland/Northern Ireland border. o    IPH is supporting the development of new public health strategies in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland which are both due for publication this year. o    There are tangible benefits from cross-border cooperation in the health sector, both in public health and in health service planning and delivery and there are many examples of successful initiatives. However, developments are not occurring in the context of an agreed plan or overall strategic context and tend to be project-based and concentrated in border counties. o    Successful cross-border cooperation requires high level support and integration into departmental policy cycles. The provision of data on an all-island basis supports cross-border cooperation as does the operation of sustainable all-island organisations which can support research, evaluations and programmes. o    In the future, cross-border cooperation in health will be more effective if developed with a strategic planning process intrinsically linked to Departmental priorities. o    North-South cooperation in the areas of alcohol, obesity, tobacco health surveys and rare diseases will be particularly beneficial.