Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coronary CT angiography using 64 detector rows: methods and design of the multi-centre trial CORE-64

Multislice computed tomography (MSCT) for the noninvasive detection of coronary artery stenoses is a promising candidate for widespread clinical application because of its non-invasive nature and high sensitivity and negative predictive value as found in several previous studies using 16 to 64 simultaneous detector rows. A multi-centre study of CT coronary angiography using 16 simultaneous detector rows has shown that 16-slice CT is limited by a high number of nondiagnostic cases and a high false-positive rate. A recent meta-analysis indicated a significant interaction between the size of the study sample and the diagnostic odds ratios suggestive of small study bias, highlighting the importance of evaluating MSCT using 64 simultaneous detector rows in a multi-centre approach with a larger sample size. In this manuscript we detail the objectives and methods of the prospective ""CORE-64"" trial (""Coronary Evaluation Using Multidetector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography using 64 Detectors""). This multi-centre trial was unique in that it assessed the diagnostic performance of 64-slice CT coronary angiography in nine centres worldwide in comparison to conventional coronary angiography. In conclusion, the multi-centre, multi-institutional and multi-continental trial CORE-64 has great potential to ultimately assess the per-patient diagnostic performance of coronary CT angiography using 64 simultaneous detector rows.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Biomechanical analysis of sutures used for mesh fixation in the donor area after removal of the rectus abdominis muscle

Background: The use of synthetic mesh for abdominal wall closure after removal of the rectus abdominis is established but not standardised. This study compares two forms of mesh fixation: a simple suture, which fixes the mesh to the edges of the defect on the anterior rectus abdominis fascia; and total fixation, which incorporates the fasciae of the internal oblique, external oblique and transverse muscles in the suture, anchoring the mesh in the position of the removed muscle. Method: A total of 16 fresh cadavers were dissected. Two sutures were compared: simple and total. Three different sites were analysed: 5 cm above, 5 cm below and at the level of the umbilicus. The two sutures compared were tested in each region using a standardised technique. All sutures were performed with nylon 0, perpendicular to the linea alba. Each suture was secured to a dynamometer, which was pulled perpendicularly towards the midline until the rupture of the aponeurosis. `Rupture resistance` was measured in kilogram force. The mean among the groups was compared using the paired Student`s t-test to a significance level of 1% (p < 0.01). Results: The mean rupture resistance of the total suture was 160% higher than that of the simple suture. Conclusion: The total suture includes the external oblique, internal oblique and transverse fasciae, which are multi-directional, and creates a much higher resistance when compared with the simple suture. Total suture may reduce the incidence of bulging and hernias of the abdominal wall after harvesting the rectus abdominis muscle, but comparative clinical studies are necessary. (C) 2010 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is PHEEM a multi-dimensional instrument? An international perspective

Aim: To look at the characteristics of Postgraduate Hospital Educational Environment Measure (PHEEM) using data from the UK, Brazil, Chile and the Netherlands, and to examine the reliability and characteristics of PHEEM, especially how the three PHEEM subscales fitted with factors derived statistically from the data sets. Methods: Statistical analysis of PHEEM scores from 1563 sets of data, using reliability analysis, exploratory factor analysis and correlations of factors derived with the three defined PHEEM subscales. Results: PHEEM was very reliable with an overall Cronbach`s alpha of 0.928. Three factors were derived by exploratory factor analysis. Factor One correlated most strongly with the teaching subscale (R=0.802), Factor Two correlated most strongly with the role autonomy subscale (R=0.623) and Factor Three correlated most strongly with the social support subscale (R=0.538). Conclusions: PHEEM is a multi-dimensional instrument. Overall, it is very reliable. There is a good fit of the three defined subscales, derived by qualitative methods, with the three principal factors derived from the data by exploratory factor analysis.

Prevalence of, and risk factors for Kaposi`s sarcoma-associated herpesvirus infection among blood donors in Brazil: A multi-center serosurvey

Kaposi`s sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) is endemic in the Amazon and rare in southern regions of Brazil. However, geographical distribution and epidemiological correlates of infection in this large country are still poorly defined. To estimate the seroprevalence of, and risk factors for, KSHV infection in Brazil, a multi-center study was conducted among 3,493 first-time voluntary unpaid blood donors from Salvador, Sao Paulo and Manaus. Antibodies against KSHV were detected using a whole-virus ELISA validated prior to the serosurvey. Antibodies against the latency-associated nuclear antigen (LANA) were detected by immuno-fluorescence assay (IFA) among ELISA-positive sera and a random sample of ELISA-negative sera. Overall, seroprevalence of KSHV by whole-virus ELISA was 21.7% (95% confidence interval (Cl): 20-23.4%) in men and 31.7% (95% Cl: 29-34.3%) in women (P<0.0001). KSHV antibodies were detected by IFA-LANA in 3% (95% Cl: 2-4.3%) of 867 ELISA-positive samples and in none of 365 randomly selected ELISA-negative samples. In multivariate analysis, KSHV seroprevalence by whole-virus ELISA was independently associated with female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.6, 95% Cl: 1.4-1.9); residence in the Amazon (OR = 1.4, 95% Cl: 1.2-1.8; compared to Salvador); Caucasian ethnicity (OR = 1.3, 95% Cl: 1.1-1.6) and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection (OR = 1.3, 95% Cl: 1.1-1.6). KSHV seroprevalence did not significantly increase with age, nor was it associated with self-reported sexual behavior. KSHV seroprevalence is high among Brazilian blood donors, particularly from the Amazon region. This study supports the co-existence of sexual and non-sexual routes of KSHV transmission in this population.

Reduced medial prefrontal N-Acetyl-Aspartate levels in pediatric major depressive disorder: A multi-voxel in vivo (1)H spectroscopy study

There is increasing evidence of a reciprocal fronto-limbic network in the pathogenesis of mood disorders. Prior in vivo proton ((1)H) spectroscopy studies provide evidence of abnormal neurochemical levels in the cingulate and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) of adult subjects with major depressive disorder (MOD). We examined whether similar abnormalities occur in children and adolescents with MDD. We collected two-dimensional multi-voxel in vivo 1H spectroscopy data at 1.5 Tesla to quantify levels of N-acetyl-aspartate (NAA), glycerolphosphocholine plus phosphocholine (GPC + PC), and phosphocreatine plus creatine (PCr + Cr) in the DLPFC, medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC), and anterior cingulate (AC) of children and adolescents aged 8-17 years with MDD (n = 16) compared with healthy control subjects (n = 38). Analysis of covariance with age and gender as covariates was performed. MDD subjects showed significantly lower levels of NAA in the right MPFC and right AC than controls. MDD subjects also had significantly lower levels of GPC + PC in the right AC than control subjects. There were no significant differences in other metabolites in the studied regions. Pediatric patients with MDD exhibit neurochemical alterations in prefrontal cortex regions that are important in the monitoring and regulation of emotional states. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Salvage Radical Prostatectomy for Radiation-recurrent Prostate Cancer: A Multi-institutional Collaboration

Background: Oncologic outcomes in men with radiation-recurrent prostate cancer (PCa) treated with salvage radical prostatectomy (SRP) are poorly defined. Objective: To identify predictors of biochemical recurrence (BCR), metastasis, and death following SRP to help select patients who may benefit from SRP. Design, setting, and participants: This is a retrospective, international, multi-institutional cohort analysis. There was amedian follow-up of 4.4 yr following SRP performed on 404 men with radiation-recurrent PCa from 1985 to 2009 in tertiary centers. Intervention: Open SRP. Measurements: BCR after SRP was defined as a serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) >= 0.1 or >= 0.2 ng/ml (depending on the institution). Secondary end points included progression to metastasis and cancerspecific death. Results and limitations: Median age at SRP was 65 yr of age, and median pre-SRP PSA was 4.5 ng/ml. Following SRP, 195 patients experienced BCR, 64 developed metastases, and 40 died from PCa. At 10 yr after SRP, BCR-free survival, metastasis-free survival, and cancer-specific survival (CSS) probabilities were 37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 31-43), 77% (95% CI, 71-82), and 83% (95% CI, 76-88), respectively. On preoperative multivariable analysis, pre-SRP PSA and Gleason score at postradiation prostate biopsy predicted BCR (p = 0.022; global p < 0.001) and metastasis (p = 0.022; global p < 0.001). On postoperative multivariable analysis, pre-SRP PSA and pathologic Gleason score at SRP predicted BCR (p = 0.014; global p < 0.001) and metastasis (p < 0.001; global p < 0.001). Lymph node involvement (LNI) also predicted metastasis (p = 0.017). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective design and the follow-up period. Conclusions: In a select group of patients who underwent SRP for radiation-recurrent PCa, freedom from clinical metastasis was observed in > 75% of patients 10 yr after surgery. Patients with lower pre-SRP PSA levels and lower postradiation prostate biopsy Gleason score have the highest probability of cure from SRP. (C) 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Clinical Validity of the Protocol for Multi-Professional Centers for the Determination of Signs and Symptoms of Temporomandibular Disorders. Part II

The aims of this study were to analyze the criterion and construct validity of Part II of the protocol for multi-professional centers for the determination of signs and symptoms of temporomandibular disorders (ProTMDMulti) as a measure of TMD severity. The study was conducted on eight asymptomatic subjects (CG) and 30 subjects with articular TMD (TMDG), according to the Research Diagnostic Criteria for TMD (RDC/TMD). The ProTMDMulti-Part II was validated using the Helkimo Clinical Dysfunction Index (Di). The construct validity was tested using the analysis of the ability of ProTMDMulti-part II to differentiate the CG from the TMDG and to measure the changes that occurred in the TMDG between the period before and after TMD treatment. Correlations between the Di and the ProTMDMulti-Part II scores were calculated using the Spearman test. Inter- and intragroup comparisons were made (p<0.05). There was a statistically significant correlation between the Helkimo Clinical Dysfunction Index (Di) and the severity scores of the ProTMDMulti-Part II. There was a significant difference between TMDG and CG regarding the severity of signs and symptoms. The present study provides statistical evidence of the clinical validity of the ProTMDmulti-Part II as a measure of the severity of TMD symptoms.

Major demographic changes in Bangladesh and their socio-economic correlates: Analysis of trends

Catalogues the demographic changes in Bangladesh during the period 1975-2000 and examines how they relate to key socio-economic attributes. Trends are examined in population growth, growth of the working age population, women’s workforce participation, age-dependency ratio, female-male ratio, longevity, fertility, mortality and mean age at first marriage. Bangladesh has made significant breakthroughs in all these areas, a feat not matched by most other South Asian countries, but comparable with the South-East Asia region as whole. The study isolates factors contributing to the changes in each attribute. It assesses the correlation between Bangladesh’s demographic changes and selected socio-economic indicators namely, its per capita GDP, female labour force participation, per capita public health expenditure and educational achievements by both men and women. All five socio-economic variables display statistically significant correlation, in varying degrees, with measures of the demographic changes. Per capita GDP is probably the most significant determinant of demographic changes in Bangladesh. The study observes that men’s education reinforces women’s education and with increased workforce participation contributed to reduced fertility. The study suggests that the role of family planning programs in curbing population growth in Bangladesh maybe overestimated.

Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Early-Mid Holocene climatic variations in Tasmania, Australia: multi-proxy records in a stalagmite from Lynds Cave

Mass spectrometric uranium-series dating and C-O isotopic analysis of a stalagmite from Lynds Cave, northern Tasmania, Australia provide a high-resolution record of regional climate change between 5100 and 9200 yr before present (BP). Combined delta(18)O, delta(13)C, growth rate, initial U-234/U-238 and physical property (color, transparency and porosity) records allow recognition of seven climatic stages: Stage I ( > 9080 yr BP) - a relatively dry period at the beginning of stalagmite growth evidenced by elevated U-234/U-238; Stage II (9080-8600 yr BP) - a period of unstable climate characterized by high-frequency variability in temperature and bio-productivity; Stage 111 (8600-8000 yr BP) - a period of stable and moderate precipitation and stable and high bio-productivity, with a continuously rising temperature; Stage IV (8000-7400 yr BP) - the warmest period with high evaporation and low effective precipitation (rainfall less evaporation); Stage V (7400-7000 yr BP) - the wettest period with highest stalagmite growth and enhanced but unstable bio-productivity; Stage VI (7000-6600 yr BP) - a period with a significantly reduced precipitation and bio-productivity without noticeable change in temperature; Stage VII (6600-5100 yr BP) - a period of lowest temperature and precipitation marking a significant climatic deterioration. Overall, the records suggest that the warmest climate occurred between 8000 and 7400 yr BP, followed by a wettest period between 7400 and 7000 yr BP. These are broadly correlated with the so-called 'Mid Holocene optimum' previously proposed using pollen and lake level records. However, the timing and resolution of the speleothem. record from Lynds Cave are significantly higher than in both the pollen and lake level records. This allows us to correlate the abrupt change in physical property, delta(18)O, delta(13)C, growth rate, and initial U-234/U-238 of the stalagmite at similar to8000 yr BP with a global climatic event at Early-Mid Holocene transition. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating high and moderate spatial resolution image data to estimate forest age structure

The collection of spatial information to quantify changes to the state and condition of the environment is a fundamental component of conservation or sustainable utilization of tropical and subtropical forests, Age is an important structural attribute of old-growth forests influencing biological diversity in Australia eucalypt forests. Aerial photograph interpretation has traditionally been used for mapping the age and structure of forest stands. However this method is subjective and is not able to accurately capture fine to landscape scale variation necessary for ecological studies. Identification and mapping of fine to landscape scale vegetative structural attributes will allow the compilation of information associated with Montreal Process indicators lb and ld, which seek to determine linkages between age structure and the diversity and abundance of forest fauna populations. This project integrated measurements of structural attributes derived from a canopy-height elevation model with results from a geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model to map forest age structure at a landscape scale. The availability of multiple-scale data allows the transfer of high-resolution attributes to landscape scale monitoring. Multispectral image data were obtained from a DMSV (Digital Multi-Spectral Video) sensor over St Mary's State Forest in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Local scene variance levels for different forest tapes calculated from the DMSV data were used to optimize the tree density and canopy size output in a geometric-optical model applied to a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TU) data set. Airborne laser scanner data obtained over the project area were used to calibrate a digital filter to extract tree heights from a digital elevation model that was derived from scanned colour stereopairs. The modelled estimates of tree height, crown size, and tree density were used to produce a decision-tree classification of forest successional stage at a landscape scale. The results obtained (72% accuracy), were limited in validation, but demonstrate potential for using the multi-scale methodology to provide spatial information for forestry policy objectives (ie., monitoring forest age structure).

Multi-fluorescent silica colloids for encoding large combinatorial libraries

Large chemical libraries can be synthesized on solid-support beads by the combinatorial split-and-mix method. A major challenge associated with this type of library synthesis is distinguishing between the beads and their attached compounds. A new method of encoding these solid-support beads, 'colloidal bar-coding', involves attaching fluorescent silica colloids ('reporters') to the beads as they pass through the compound synthesis, thereby creating a fluorescent bar code on each bead. In order to obtain sufficient reporter varieties to bar code extremely large libraries, many of the reporters must contain multiple fluorescent dyes. We describe here the synthesis and spectroscopic analysis of various mono- and multi-fluorescent silica particles for this purpose. It was found that by increasing the amount of a single dye introduced into the particle reaction mixture, mono- fluorescent silica particles of increasing intensities could be prepared. This increase was highly reproducible and was observed for six different fluorescent dyes. Multi-fluorescent silica particles containing up to six fluorescent dyes were also prepared. The resultant emission intensity of each dye in the multi-fluorescent particles was found to be dependent upon a number of factors; the hydrolysis rate of each silane-dye conjugate, the magnitude of the inherent emission intensity of each dye within the silica matrix, and energy transfer effects between dyes. We show that by varying the relative concentration of each silane-dye conjugate in the synthesis of multi-fluorescent particles, it is possible to change and optimize the resultant emission intensity of each dye to enable viewing in a fluorescence detection instrument.

An automated multi-unit composting facility for biodegradability evaluations

A system has been developed for studying the biodegradation of natural and synthetic polymeric material. The system is based on standard methods developed by the European Committee for Standardisation (CEN TC 261) (ISO/DIS 14855) and the American Society of Testing Materials, 'ASTM. Standard Test Method for Determining Aerobic. Biodegradation of Plastic Materials under Controlled Composting Conditions' (ASTM D 5338-92). A new low-cost compost facility has been used which satisfies the requirements of these standards. The system has been automated for data collection and has been run under the conditions specified by the standards. In the system, cellulose, newspaper and two starch-based polymers were treated with compost in a series of 3dm(3) vessels at 52 degreesC and under conditions of optimum moisture and pH. The degradation was followed over time by measuring the amount of carbon released as carbon dioxide. (C) 2001 Society of Chemical Industry.