A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate cahgne projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment's role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.

Networks, agency and (de)stabilisation: the issue of navigation on the River Wye, UK

This paper assesses the way in which an actor network presiding over the management of the River Wye has stabilized through accepting a particular view on the issue of navigation. The paper provides an account of how the network was challenged by a dissonant actor who, through reviving an old company, developed a counter network. It is argued that network stabilization is a form of consensus-building and it is contended that the way in which an issue is defined is crucial in terms of the successful enrolment of actors. The paper illustrates some of the conflicts and complexities encountered in resource planning, suggesting that research of this nature should trace actors back through time as well as through space if dynamics between actors involved in rural planning and management are to be effectively understood.

Statistical–dynamical downscaling of present day and future precipitation regimes in the Aksu river catchment in Central Asia

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to determine present day and future high-resolution rainfall distributions in the catchment of the river Aksu at the southern slopes of the Tienshan Mountains, Central Asia. First, a circulation weather type (CWT) classification is employed to define typical lower atmospheric flow regimes from ERA-40 reanalysis data. Selected representatives of each CWT are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM 4.8 at a horizontal grid resolution of 0.0625°, using the ERA-40 reanalysis data as boundary conditions. Finally, the simulated representatives are recombined to obtain a high-resolution rainfall climatology for present day climate. The methodology is also applied to ensemble simulations of three different scenarios of the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 to derive projections of rainfall changes until 2100. Comparisons of downscaled seasonal and annual rainfall with observational data suggest that the statistical–dynamical approach is appropriate to capture the observed present-day precipitation climatology over the low lands and the first elevations of the Tienshan Mountains. On the other hand, a strong bias is found at higher altitudes, where precipitation is clearly underestimated by SDD. The application of SDD to the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 ensemble reveals that precipitation changes by the end of the 21st century depend on the season. While for autumn an increase of seasonal precipitation is found for all simulations, a decrease in precipitation is obtained during winter for most parts of the Aksu catchment. The spread between different ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 ensemble members is strongest in spring, where trends of opposite sign are found. The largest changes in rainfall are simulated for the summer season, which also shows the most pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Most ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 realizations indicate a decrease of annual precipitation over large parts of the Tienshan, and an increase restricted to the southeast of the study area. These results provide a good basis for downscaling present-day and future rainfall distributions for hydrological purposes.

Cost effectiveness of mitigation measures for water security and water quality in the River Thames catchment: impacts of changing climate, land use and water scarcity

The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.

Modelling primary producer interaction and composition: an example of a UK lowland river

Nutrient enrichment and drought conditions are major threats to lowland rivers causing ecosystem degradation and composition changes in plant communities. The controls on primary producer composition in chalk rivers are investigated using a new model and existing data from the River Frome (UK) to explore abiotic and biotic interactions. The growth and interaction of four primary producer functional groups (suspended algae, macrophytes, epiphytes, sediment biofilm) were successfully linked with flow, nutrients (N, P), light and water temperature such that the modelled biomass dynamics of the four groups matched that of the observed. Simulated growth of suspended algae was limited mainly by the residence time of the river rather than in-stream phosphorus concentrations. The simulated growth of the fixed vegetation (macrophytes, epiphytes, sediment biofilm) was overwhelmingly controlled by incoming solar radiation and light attenuation in the water column. Nutrients and grazing have little control when compared to the other physical controls in the simulations. A number of environmental threshold values were identified in the model simulations for the different producer types. The simulation results highlighted the importance of the pelagic–benthic interactions within the River Frome and indicated that process interaction defined the behaviour of the primary producers, rather than a single, dominant driver. The model simulations pose interesting questions to be considered in the next iteration of field- and laboratory based studies.

Reducing The Risk Of Floods In Urban Areas With Combined Inland-River System

With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

Real-Time Control Of Floods Along The Demer River, Belgium, By Means Of MPC In Combination With GA And A Fast Conceptual River Model

Climate model projections show that climate change will further increase the risk of flooding in many regions of the world. There is a need for climate adaptation, but building new infrastructure or additional retention basins has its limits, especially in densely populated areas where open spaces are limited. Another solution is the more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. This research investigates a method for real-time flood control by means of existing gated weirs and retention basins. The method was tested for the specific study area of the Demer basin in Belgium but is generally applicable. Today, retention basins along the Demer River are controlled by means of adjustable gated weirs based on fixed logic rules. However, because of the high complexity of the system, only suboptimal results are achieved by these rules. By making use of precipitation forecasts and combined hydrological-hydraulic river models, the state of the river network can be predicted. To fasten the calculation speed, a conceptual river model was used. The conceptual model was combined with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The MPC algorithm predicts the state of the river network depending on the positions of the adjustable weirs in the basin. The GA generates these positions in a semi-random way. Cost functions, based on water levels, were introduced to evaluate the efficiency of each generation, based on flood damage minimization. In the final phase of this research the influence of the most important MPC and GA parameters was investigated by means of a sensitivity study. The results show that the MPC-GA algorithm manages to reduce the total flood volume during the historical event of September 1998 by 46% in comparison with the current regulation. Based on the MPC-GA results, some recommendations could be formulated to improve the logic rules.

Numerical Simulation Of Sediment Transport And Bedmorphology Around A Hydraulic Structure On A River

Scour around hydraulic structures is a critical problem in hydraulic engineering. Under prediction of scour depth may lead to costly failures of the structure, while over prediction might result in unnecessary costs. Unfortunately, up-to-date empirical scour prediction formulas are based on laboratory experiments that are not always able to reproduce field conditions due to complicated geometry of rivers and temporal and spatial scales of a physical model. However, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools can perform using real field dimensions and operating conditions to predict sediment scour around hydraulic structures. In Korea, after completing the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project, several new weirs have been built across Han, Nakdong, Geum and Yeongsan Rivers. Consequently, sediment deposition and bed erosion around such structures have became a major issue in these four rivers. In this study, an application of an open source CFD software package, the TELEMAC-MASCARET, to simulate sediment transport and bed morphology around Gangjeong weir, which is the largest multipurpose weir built on Nakdong River. A real bathymetry of the river and a geometry of the weir have been implemented into the numerical model. The numerical simulation is carried out with a real hydrograph at the upstream boundary. The bedmorphology obtained from the numerical results has been validated against field observation data, and a maximum of simulated scour depth is compared with the results obtained by empirical formulas of Hoffmans. Agreement between numerical computations, observed data and empirical formulas is judged to be satisfactory on all major comparisons. The outcome of this study does not only point out the locations where deposition and erosion might take place depending on the weir gate operation, but also analyzes the mechanism of formation and evolution of scour holes after the weir gates.

Verification Of The Standard Vector Data Model For Interoperability Of River-Geospatial Information

Recently, two international standard organizations, ISO and OGC, have done the work of standardization for GIS. Current standardization work for providing interoperability among GIS DB focuses on the design of open interfaces. But, this work has not considered procedures and methods for designing river geospatial data. Eventually, river geospatial data has its own model. When we share the data by open interface among heterogeneous GIS DB, differences between models result in the loss of information. In this study a plan was suggested both to respond to these changes in the information envirnment and to provide a future Smart River-based river information service by understanding the current state of river geospatial data model, improving, redesigning the database. Therefore, primary and foreign key, which can distinguish attribute information and entity linkages, were redefined to increase the usability. Database construction of attribute information and entity relationship diagram have been newly redefined to redesign linkages among tables from the perspective of a river standard database. In addition, this study was undertaken to expand the current supplier-oriented operating system to a demand-oriented operating system by establishing an efficient management of river-related information and a utilization system, capable of adapting to the changes of a river management paradigm.

Banana Peel Applied to the Solid Phase Extraction of Copper and Lead from River Water: Preconcentration of Metal Ions with a Fruit Waste

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ichthyofaunal survey of the Riacho Goulart, tributary of the Tiete River (upper Parana basin).

Fishes assessed in the present study were collected in the Riacho Goulart, a small tributary of Tiete River, upper Parana basin. In order to sample different habitats, four collection sites were selected. A total of 1,241 individuals belonging to 30 species, 15 families, and six orders were captured. The list of fish species presented herein is important for the knowledge of the biodiversity of low Tiete basin.

Population biology of shrimp Macrobrachium jelskii (Miers, 1778) (Decapoda, Palaemonoidea) at the Grande River at northwest of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

OBJETIVO: A biologia populacional do camarão de água doce Macrobrachium jelskii foi investigada, com ênfase na distribuição de frequência em classes de tamanho, razão sexual, período reprodutivo e recrutamento juvenil. Além disso, a abundância dos indivíduos foi correlacionada com os fatores abióticos. MÉTODOS: Amostras foram coletadas mensalmente de julho de 2005 a junho de 2007, às margens do Rio Grande, região de Planura, estado de Minas Gerais, Brasil (20º 09' S e 48º 40' W), usando uma rede de arrasto (1.0 mm tamanho da malha e 2.0 × 0.5 m de largura). O equipamento foi arrastado por duas pessoas às margens da vegetação do rio por 100 metros de distância, percorridos por uma hora. em laboratório, os espécimes foram identificados, mensurados e sexados. RESULTADOS: Um total de 2,789 espécimes foi analisado, no qual correspondem a 1,126 machos (549 jovens e 577 adultos) e 1,663 fêmeas (1,093 jovens, 423 adultos não ovígeras e 147 ovígeras). A razão sexual diferiu significativamente a favor de fêmeas de M. jelskii (1:1.48; χ² = 103.95; p < 0.0001). A média de tamanho do comprimento da carapaça (CL) das fêmeas (6.32 ± 1.84 mm CL) foi estatisticamente maior do que dos machos (5.50 ± 1.07 mm CL) (p < 0.001). A distribuição de freqüência em classes de tamanho dos espécimes revela um padrão de distribuição unimodal e não normal para machos e fêmeas (W = 0.945; p < 0.01). Não foi observada relação entre a abundância de M. jelskii e as variáveis ambientais (p = 0.799). CONCLUSÃO: A presença de fêmeas ovígeras e jovens na população sugere um padrão de reprodução e recrutamento contínuos para M. jelskii na região de Planura.

Rotifer abundance, biomass, and secondary production after the recovery of hydrologic connectivity between a river and two marginal lakes (São Paulo, Brazil)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The fate of copepod populations in the Paranapanema River (São Paulo, Brazil), downstream from the Jurumirim dam

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Fish-assemblage structure of the Corumbatai river basin, São Paulo State, Brazil: characterization and anthropogenic disturbances

O rio Corumbataí é um dos principais tributários da margem direita do rio Piracicaba que é um tributário do rio Tietê. O rio Corumbataí integra a bacia do rio Paraná e é regionalmente importante não só por possuir águas de boa qualidade, mas também por possuir elementos raros na paisagem local. Este estudo visou caracterizar as assembléias de peixes do rio Corumbataí e fornecer dados que contribuam para uma avaliação da sua qualidade ambiental. Na bacia do rio Corumbataí, foram amostrados 4 rios principais, cada um com 3 pontos de coleta. Vinte e quatro amostras foram coletadas durante os meses de março a julho e de setembro a dezembro de 2001. Dados bióticos foram avaliados por medidas de diversidade. Um modelo linear ANCOVA foi utilizado para testar a hipótese de variação espaço-temporal nas assembléias de peixes, com a riqueza de espécies como variável resposta, ordem do rio como fator e temperatura e logaritmo natural do número de indivíduos como covariáveis. Esta análise mostrou uma variação espaço-temporal que é corroborada por conceitos exaustivamente discutidos na literatura, tais como relação espécie-área e o conceito de rio contínuo. Dados provenientes do rio Ribeirão Claro mostraram um padrão diferente quando comparados com os outros rios. Esta diferença foi provavelmente devido à interferência humana e atesta o processo de fragmentação de hábitats aquáticos que podem ter levado a um isolamento das populações locais de peixes.