Rice yield estimation based on weather conditions and on technological level of production systems in Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate an estimation system for rice yield in Brazil, based on simple agrometeorological models and on the technological level of production systems. This estimation system incorporates the conceptual basis proposed by Doorenbos & Kassam for potential and attainable yields with empirical adjusts for maximum yield and crop sensitivity to water deficit, considering five categories of rice yield. Rice yield was estimated from 2000/2001 to 2007/2008, and compared to IBGE yield data. Regression analyses between model estimates and data from IBGE surveys resulted in significant coefficients of determination, with less dispersion in the South than in the North and Northeast regions of the country. Index of model efficiency (E1') ranged from 0.01 in the lower yield classes to 0.45 in higher ones, and mean absolute error ranged from 58 to 250 kg ha‑1, respectively.

Electromyographic, cerebral, and muscle hemodynamic responses during intermittent, isometric contractions of the biceps brachii at three submaximal intensities.

This study examined the electromyographic, cerebral and muscle hemodynamic responses during intermittent isometric contractions of biceps brachii at 20, 40, and 60% of maximal voluntary contraction (MVC). Eleven volunteers completed 2 min of intermittent isometric contractions (12/min) at an elbow angle of 90° interspersed with 3 min rest between intensities in systematic order. Surface electromyography (EMG) was recorded from the right biceps brachii and near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to simultaneously measure left prefrontal and right biceps brachii oxyhemoglobin (HbO2), deoxyhemoglobin (HHb), and total hemoglobin (Hbtot). Transcranial Doppler ultrasound was used to measure middle cerebral artery velocity (MCAv) bilaterally. Finger photoplethysmography was used to record beat-to-beat blood pressure and heart rate. EMG increased with force output from 20 to 60% MVC (P < 0.05). Cerebral HbO2 and Hbtot increased while HHb decreased during contractions with differences observed between 60% vs. 40% and 20% MVC (P < 0.05). Muscle HbO2 decreased while HHb increased during contractions with differences being observed among intensities (P < 0.05). Muscle Hbtot increased from rest at 20% MVC (P < 0.05), while no further change was observed at 40 and 60% MVC (P > 0.05). MCAv increased from rest to exercise but was not different among intensities (P > 0.05). Force output correlated with the root mean square EMG and changes in muscle HbO2 (P < 0.05), but not changes in cerebral HbO2 (P > 0.05) at all three intensities. Force output declined by 8% from the 1st to the 24th contraction only at 60% MVC and was accompanied by systematic increases in RMS, cerebral HbO2 and Hbtot with a leveling off in muscle HbO2 and Hbtot. These changes were independent of alterations in mean arterial pressure. Since cerebral blood flow and oxygenation were elevated at 60% MVC, we attribute the development of fatigue to reduced muscle oxygen availability rather than impaired central neuronal activation.

ML estimator and hybrid beamformer for multipath and interference mitigation in GNSS receivers

This paper addresses the estimation of the code-phase(pseudorange) and the carrier-phase of the direct signal received from a direct-sequence spread-spectrum satellite transmitter. Thesignal is received by an antenna array in a scenario with interferenceand multipath propagation. These two effects are generallythe limiting error sources in most high-precision positioning applications.A new estimator of the code- and carrier-phases is derivedby using a simplified signal model and the maximum likelihood(ML) principle. The simplified model consists essentially ofgathering all signals, except for the direct one, in a component withunknown spatial correlation. The estimator exploits the knowledgeof the direction-of-arrival of the direct signal and is much simplerthan other estimators derived under more detailed signal models.Moreover, we present an iterative algorithm, that is adequate for apractical implementation and explores an interesting link betweenthe ML estimator and a hybrid beamformer. The mean squarederror and bias of the new estimator are computed for a numberof scenarios and compared with those of other methods. The presentedestimator and the hybrid beamforming outperform the existingtechniques of comparable complexity and attains, in manysituations, the Cramér–Rao lower bound of the problem at hand.

Methods for the analysis of two dimensional measurement data of paper web

This work is devoted to the problem of reconstructing the basis weight structure at paper web with black{box techniques. The data that is analyzed comes from a real paper machine and is collected by an o®-line scanner. The principal mathematical tool used in this work is Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) modelling. When coupled with the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT), it gives a very flexible and interesting tool for analyzing properties of the paper web. Both ARMA and DFT are independently used to represent the given signal in a simplified version of our algorithm, but the final goal is to combine the two together. Ljung-Box Q-statistic lack-of-fit test combined with the Root Mean Squared Error coefficient gives a tool to separate significant signals from noise.

Simultaneous measurement of regional cerebral blood flow by perfusion CT and stable xenon CT: a validation study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Knowledge of cerebral blood flow (CBF) alterations in cases of acute stroke could be valuable in the early management of these cases. Among imaging techniques affording evaluation of cerebral perfusion, perfusion CT studies involve sequential acquisition of cerebral CT sections obtained in an axial mode during the IV administration of iodinated contrast material. They are thus very easy to perform in emergency settings. Perfusion CT values of CBF have proved to be accurate in animals, and perfusion CT affords plausible values in humans. The purpose of this study was to validate perfusion CT studies of CBF by comparison with the results provided by stable xenon CT, which have been reported to be accurate, and to evaluate acquisition and processing modalities of CT data, notably the possible deconvolution methods and the selection of the reference artery. METHODS: Twelve stable xenon CT and perfusion CT cerebral examinations were performed within an interval of a few minutes in patients with various cerebrovascular diseases. CBF maps were obtained from perfusion CT data by deconvolution using singular value decomposition and least mean square methods. The CBF were compared with the stable xenon CT results in multiple regions of interest through linear regression analysis and bilateral t tests for matched variables. RESULTS: Linear regression analysis showed good correlation between perfusion CT and stable xenon CT CBF values (singular value decomposition method: R(2) = 0.79, slope = 0.87; least mean square method: R(2) = 0.67, slope = 0.83). Bilateral t tests for matched variables did not identify a significant difference between the two imaging methods (P >.1). Both deconvolution methods were equivalent (P >.1). The choice of the reference artery is a major concern and has a strong influence on the final perfusion CT CBF map. CONCLUSION: Perfusion CT studies of CBF achieved with adequate acquisition parameters and processing lead to accurate and reliable results.

Quantile Estimation in Non-Stationary Streaming Data

We provide an incremental quantile estimator for Non-stationary Streaming Data. We propose a method for simultaneous estimation of multiple quantiles corresponding to the given probability levels from streaming data. Due to the limitations of the memory, it is not feasible to compute the quantiles by storing the data. So estimating the quantiles as the data pass by is the only possibility. This can be effective in network measurement. To provide the minimum of the mean-squared error of the estimation, we use parabolic approximation and for comparison we simulate the results for different number of runs and using both linear and parabolic approximations.

Relation between sequence and structure of HIV-1 protease inhibitor complexes: a model system for the analysis of protein flexibility.

The flexibility of different regions of HIV-1 protease was examined by using a database consisting of 73 X-ray structures that differ in terms of sequence, ligands or both. The root-mean-square differences of the backbone for the set of structures were shown to have the same variation with residue number as those obtained from molecular dynamics simulations, normal mode analyses and X-ray B-factors. This supports the idea that observed structural changes provide a measure of the inherent flexibility of the protein, although specific interactions between the protease and the ligand play a secondary role. The results suggest that the potential energy surface of the HIV-1 protease is characterized by many local minima with small energetic differences, some of which are sampled by the different X-ray structures of the HIV-1 protease complexes. Interdomain correlated motions were calculated from the structural fluctuations and the results were also in agreement with molecular dynamics simulations and normal mode analyses. Implications of the results for the drug-resistance engendered by mutations are discussed briefly.

Cardiorespiratory and Cardiac Autonomic Responses to 30-15 Intermittent Fitness Test in Team Sport Players

Buchheit, M, Al Haddad, H, Millet GP, Lepretre, PM, Newton, M, and Ahmaidi, S. Cardiorespiratory and cardiac autonomic responses to 30-15 Intermittent Fitness Test in team sport players. J Strength Cond Res 23(1): xxx-xxx, 2009-The 30-15 Intermittent Fitness Test (30-15IFT) is an attractive alternative to classic continuous incremental field tests for defining a reference velocity for interval training prescription in team sport athletes. The aim of the present study was to compare cardiorespiratory and autonomic responses to 30-15IFT with those observed during a standard continuous test (CT). In 20 team sport players (20.9 +/- 2.2 years), cardiopulmonary parameters were measured during exercise and for 10 minutes after both tests. Final running velocity, peak lactate ([La]peak), and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) were also measured. Parasympathetic function was assessed during the postexercise recovery phase via heart rate (HR) recovery time constant (HRRtau) and HR variability (HRV) vagal-related indices. At exhaustion, no difference was observed in peak oxygen uptake (&OV0312;o2peak), respiratory exchange ratio, HR, or RPE between 30-15IFT and CT. In contrast, 30-15IFT led to significantly higher minute ventilation, [La]peak, and final velocity than CT (p < 0.05 for all parameters). All maximal cardiorespiratory variables observed during both tests were moderately to well correlated (e.g., r = 0.76, p = 0.001 for &OV0312;o2peak). Regarding ventilatory thresholds (VThs), all cardiorespiratory measurements were similar and well correlated between the 2 tests. Parasympathetic function was lower after 30-15IFT than after CT, as indicated by significantly longer HHRtau (81.9 +/- 18.2 vs. 60.5 +/- 19.5 for 30-15IFT and CT, respectively, p < 0.001) and lower HRV vagal-related indices (i.e., the root mean square of successive R-R intervals differences [rMSSD]: 4.1 +/- 2.4 and 7.0 +/- 4.9 milliseconds, p < 0.05). In conclusion, the 30-15IFT is accurate for assessing VThs and &OV0312;o2peak, but it alters postexercise parasympathetic function more than a continuous incremental protocol.

A priori parameterisation of the CERES soil-crop models and tests against several European data sets

Mechanistic soil-crop models have become indispensable tools to investigate the effect of management practices on the productivity or environmental impacts of arable crops. Ideally these models may claim to be universally applicable because they simulate the major processes governing the fate of inputs such as fertiliser nitrogen or pesticides. However, because they deal with complex systems and uncertain phenomena, site-specific calibration is usually a prerequisite to ensure their predictions are realistic. This statement implies that some experimental knowledge on the system to be simulated should be available prior to any modelling attempt, and raises a tremendous limitation to practical applications of models. Because the demand for more general simulation results is high, modellers have nevertheless taken the bold step of extrapolating a model tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain. While methodological questions are often disregarded in this extrapolation process, they are specifically addressed in this paper, and in particular the issue of models a priori parameterisation. We thus implemented and tested a standard procedure to parameterize the soil components of a modified version of the CERES models. The procedure converts routinely-available soil properties into functional characteristics by means of pedo-transfer functions. The resulting predictions of soil water and nitrogen dynamics, as well as crop biomass, nitrogen content and leaf area index were compared to observations from trials conducted in five locations across Europe (southern Italy, northern Spain, northern France and northern Germany). In three cases, the model’s performance was judged acceptable when compared to experimental errors on the measurements, based on a test of the model’s root mean squared error (RMSE). Significant deviations between observations and model outputs were however noted in all sites, and could be ascribed to various model routines. In decreasing importance, these were: water balance, the turnover of soil organic matter, and crop N uptake. A better match to field observations could therefore be achieved by visually adjusting related parameters, such as field-capacity water content or the size of soil microbial biomass. As a result, model predictions fell within the measurement errors in all sites for most variables, and the model’s RMSE was within the range of published values for similar tests. We conclude that the proposed a priori method yields acceptable simulations with only a 50% probability, a figure which may be greatly increased through a posteriori calibration. Modellers should thus exercise caution when extrapolating their models to a large sample of pedo-climatic conditions for which they have only limited information.

Neuro-mechanical and metabolic adjustments to the repeated anaerobic sprint test in professional football players.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to determine the neuro-mechanical and metabolic adjustments in the lower limbs induced by the running anaerobic sprint test (the so-called RAST). METHODS: Eight professional football players performed 6 × 35 m sprints interspersed with 10 s of active recovery on artificial turf with their football shoes. Sprinting mechanics (plantar pressure insoles), root mean square activity of the vastus lateralis (VL), rectus femoris (RF), and biceps femoris (BF) muscles (surface electromyography, EMG) and VL muscle oxygenation (near-infrared spectroscopy) were monitored continuously. RESULTS: Sprint time, contact time and total stride duration increased from the first to the last repetition (+17.4, +20.0 and +16.6 %; all P < 0.05), while flight time and stride length remained constant. Stride frequency (-13.9 %; P < 0.001) and vertical stiffness decreased (-27.2 %; P < 0.001) across trials. Root mean square EMG activities of RF and BF (-18.7 and -18.1 %; P < 0.01 and 0.001, respectively), but not VL (-1.2 %; P > 0.05), decreased over sprint repetitions and were correlated with the increase in running time (r = -0.82 and -0.90; both P < 0.05). Together with a better maintenance of RF and BF muscles activation levels over sprint repetitions, players with a better repeated-sprint performance (lower cumulated times) also displayed faster muscle de- (during sprints) and re-oxygenation (during recovery) rates (r = -0.74 and -0.84; P < 0.05 and 0.01, respectively). CONCLUSION: The repeated anaerobic sprint test leads to substantial alterations in stride mechanics and leg-spring behaviour. Our results also strengthen the link between repeated-sprint ability and the change in neuromuscular activation as well as in muscle de- and re-oxygenation rates.

Plantar flexor neuromuscular adjustments following match-play football in hot and cool conditions.

We assessed neuromuscular fatigue and recovery of the plantar flexors after playing football with or without severe heat stress. Neuromuscular characteristics of the plantar flexors were assessed in 17 male players at baseline and ∼30 min, 24, and 48 h after two 90-min football matches in temperate (∼20 °C and 55% rH) and hot (∼43 °C and 20% rH) environments. Measurements included maximal voluntary strength, muscle activation, twitch contractile properties, and rate of torque development and soleus EMG (i.e., root mean square activity) rise from 0 to 30, -50, -100, and -200 ms during maximal isometric contractions for plantar flexors. Voluntary activation and peak twitch torque were equally reduced (-1.5% and -16.5%, respectively; P < 0.05) post-matches relative to baseline in both conditions, the latter persisting for at least 48 h, whereas strength losses (∼5%) were not significant. Absolute explosive force production declined (P < 0.05) 30 ms after contraction onset independently of condition, with no change at any other epochs. Globally, normalized rate of force development and soleus EMG activity rise values remained unchanged. In football, match-induced alterations in maximal and rapid torque production capacities of the plantar flexors are moderate and do not differ after competing in temperate and hot environments.

Automatic Segmentation of the Eye in 3D Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A Novel Statistical Shape Model for Treatment Planning of Retinoblastoma.

PURPOSE: Proper delineation of ocular anatomy in 3-dimensional (3D) imaging is a big challenge, particularly when developing treatment plans for ocular diseases. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is presently used in clinical practice for diagnosis confirmation and treatment planning for treatment of retinoblastoma in infants, where it serves as a source of information, complementary to the fundus or ultrasonographic imaging. Here we present a framework to fully automatically segment the eye anatomy for MRI based on 3D active shape models (ASM), and we validate the results and present a proof of concept to automatically segment pathological eyes. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Manual and automatic segmentation were performed in 24 images of healthy children's eyes (3.29 ± 2.15 years of age). Imaging was performed using a 3-T MRI scanner. The ASM consists of the lens, the vitreous humor, the sclera, and the cornea. The model was fitted by first automatically detecting the position of the eye center, the lens, and the optic nerve, and then aligning the model and fitting it to the patient. We validated our segmentation method by using a leave-one-out cross-validation. The segmentation results were evaluated by measuring the overlap, using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and the mean distance error. RESULTS: We obtained a DSC of 94.90 ± 2.12% for the sclera and the cornea, 94.72 ± 1.89% for the vitreous humor, and 85.16 ± 4.91% for the lens. The mean distance error was 0.26 ± 0.09 mm. The entire process took 14 seconds on average per eye. CONCLUSION: We provide a reliable and accurate tool that enables clinicians to automatically segment the sclera, the cornea, the vitreous humor, and the lens, using MRI. We additionally present a proof of concept for fully automatically segmenting eye pathology. This tool reduces the time needed for eye shape delineation and thus can help clinicians when planning eye treatment and confirming the extent of the tumor.

Development of a PC Tool for Estimating Pressure Drops in Forced-convection Boiler Tubes

Kaksifaasivirtauksen kuvaamiseen käytettävät mallit, ja menetelmät kaksifaasivirtauksen painehäviön määrittämiseksi kehittyvät yhä monimutkaisimmiksi. Höyrystinputkissa tapahtuvien painehäviöiden arvioinnin vaatiman laskennan suorittamiseksi tietokoneohjelman kehittäminen on välttämätöntä. Tässä työssä on kehitetty itsenäinen PC-ohjelma painehäviöiden arvioimiseksi pakotetulle konvektiovirtaukselle pystysuorissa höyrykattilan höyrystinputkissa. Veden ja vesihöyryn aineominaisuuksien laskentaan käytetään IAPWS-IF97 –yhtälökokoelmaa sekä muita tarvittavia IAPWS:n suosittelemia yhtälöitä. Höyrystinputkessa kulloinkin vallitsevan virtausmuodon määrittämiseen käytetään sovelluskelpoisia virtausmuotojen välisiä rajoja kuvaavia yhtälöitä. Ohjelmassa käytetään painehäviön määritykseen kirjallisuudessa julkaistuja yhtälöitä, virtausmuodosta riippuen, alijäähtyneelle virtaukselle, kupla-, tulppa- ja rengasvirtaukselle sekä tulistetun höyryn virtaukselle. Ohjelman laskemia painehäviöarvioita verrattiin kirjallisuudesta valittuihin mittaustuloksiin. Laskettujen painehäviöiden virhe vaihteli välillä –19.5 ja +23.9 %. Virheiden itseisarvojen keskiarvo oli 12.8 %.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Microscopic-macroscopic approach for binding energies with the Wigner-Kirkwood method

The semiclassical Wigner-Kirkwood ̄h expansion method is used to calculate shell corrections for spherical and deformed nuclei. The expansion is carried out up to fourth order in ̄h. A systematic study of Wigner-Kirkwood averaged energies is presented as a function of the deformation degrees of freedom. The shell corrections, along with the pairing energies obtained by using the Lipkin-Nogami scheme, are used in the microscopic-macroscopic approach to calculate binding energies. The macroscopic part is obtained from a liquid drop formula with six adjustable parameters. Considering a set of 367 spherical nuclei, the liquid drop parameters are adjusted to reproduce the experimental binding energies, which yields a root mean square (rms) deviation of 630 keV. It is shown that the proposed approach is indeed promising for the prediction of nuclear masses.