Estimation of sex and age of "virtual skeletons"--a feasibility study.

This article presents a feasibility study with the objective of investigating the potential of multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) to estimate the bone age and sex of deceased persons. To obtain virtual skeletons, the bodies of 22 deceased persons with known age at death were scanned by MDCT using a special protocol that consisted of high-resolution imaging of the skull, shoulder girdle (including the upper half of the humeri), the symphysis pubis and the upper halves of the femora. Bone and soft-tissue reconstructions were performed in two and three dimensions. The resulting data were investigated by three anthropologists with different professional experience. Sex was determined by investigating three-dimensional models of the skull and pelvis. As a basic orientation for the age estimation, the complex method according to Nemeskéri and co-workers was applied. The final estimation was effected using additional parameters like the state of dentition, degeneration of the spine, etc., which where chosen individually by the three observers according to their experience. The results of the study show that the estimation of sex and age is possible by the use of MDCT. Virtual skeletons present an ideal collection for anthropological studies, because they are obtained in a non-invasive way and can be investigated ad infinitum.

Simian malaria at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon - II: Vertical distribution and frequency of anopheline species inside and outside the forest

An anopheline survey was carried out in two simian malaria areas in the Brazilian Amazon, Balbina and Samuel, to determine the potential vectors of Plasmodium brasilianum. The most abundant and/or acrodendrophilic anophelines in the forest and the most likely vector were Anopheles mediopunctatus, An. nuneztovari, An. oswaldoi, An. triannulatus and An. shannoni. An. darlingi and An. marajoara were captured essentially in anthropic habitats outside the forest and are unlikely to be involved in the transmission of P. brasilianum among monkeys within the forests and from monkeys to man in their surroundings in the Amazon.

Frequency and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-infected persons: the Swiss HIV cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Access to antiretroviral therapy may have changed condom use behavior. In January 2008, recommendations on condom use for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons were published in Switzerland, which allowed for unprotected sex under well-defined circumstances ("Swiss statement"). We studied the frequency, changes over time, and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-positive persons. METHODS: Self-reported information on sexual preference, sexual partners, and condom use was collected at semi-annual visits in all participants of the prospective Swiss HIV Cohort Study from April 2007 through March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit using generalized estimating equations to investigate associations between characteristics of cohort participants and condom use. FINDINGS: A total of 7309 participants contributed to 21,978 visits. A total of 4291 persons (80%) reported sexual contacts with stable partners, 1646 (30%) with occasional partners, and 557 (10%) with stable and occasional partners. Of the study participants, 5838 (79.9%) of 7309 were receiving antiretroviral therapy, and of these, 4816 patients (82%) had a suppressed viral load. Condom use varied widely and differed by type of partner (visits with stable partners, 10,368 [80%] of 12,983; visits with occasional partners, 4300 [88%] of 4880) and by serostatus of stable partner (visits with HIV-negative partners, 7105 [89%] of 8174; visits with HIV-positive partners, 1453 [48%] of 2999). Participants were more likely to report unprotected sex with stable partners if they were receiving antiretroviral therapy, if HIV replication was suppressed, and after the publication of the "Swiss statement." Noninjection drug use and moderate or severe alcohol use were associated with unprotected sex. CONCLUSIONS: Antiretroviral treatment and plasma HIV RNA titers influence sexual behavior of HIV-positive persons. Noninjection illicit drug and alcohol use are important risk factors for unprotected sexual contacts.

Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

Mosquito Frequency and Feeding Habits in an Enzootic Canine Dirofilariasis Area in Niterói, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Heartworm, a chronic fatal mosquito-borne canine disease, is frequently diagnosed in dogs from the State of Rio de Janeiro, where its prevalence is 29.7% in the city of Niterói. Nevertheless it is rarely detected in cats (0.8%) from the same state. Dogs are the primary source of infection to mosquitoes, because cats either do not demonstrate microfilaremia or it is too low and transient for transmission. A mosquito survey was conducted in Itacoatiara, Niterói, from March 1995 to February 1996, using canine, feline and human baits. A total of 21 mosquito species (3,888 females) was collected and biting frequency was highest at dusk. The four species collected most frequently (88.9%) were: Aedes taeniorhynchus (30% of the total catch; with the peak in May/June); Culex quinquefasciatus (22.5%; August/October); Aedes scapularis (19.4%; August, October/November and January) and Culex declarator (17%; November/January). Human baits were attractive to these species and dogs were significantly more attractive to them than cats. Ae. taeniorhynchus, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Ae. scapularis, Cx. declarator and Cx. nigripalpus are the most likely mosquito species to transmit Dirofilaria immitis parasites to dogs and may transmit the parasite to humans. It is also suggested that the vector to cats belongs to the genus Culex

Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing, genotyping error estimation and de novo assembly optimization for population genetic inference.

Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) provides researchers with the ability to record genetic polymorphism across thousands of loci for nonmodel organisms, potentially revolutionizing the field of molecular ecology. However, as with other genotyping methods, RADseq is prone to a number of sources of error that may have consequential effects for population genetic inferences, and these have received only limited attention in terms of the estimation and reporting of genotyping error rates. Here we use individual sample replicates, under the expectation of identical genotypes, to quantify genotyping error in the absence of a reference genome. We then use sample replicates to (i) optimize de novo assembly parameters within the program Stacks, by minimizing error and maximizing the retrieval of informative loci; and (ii) quantify error rates for loci, alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms. As an empirical example, we use a double-digest RAD data set of a nonmodel plant species, Berberis alpina, collected from high-altitude mountains in Mexico.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Frequency-dependent sexual selection with respect to offspring fitness returns is consistent with predictions from rock-paper-scissors dynamics in the European common lizard

Genetic polymorphism can be maintained over time by negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection induced by Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) social systems. RPS games produce cyclic dynamics, and have been suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, plants, and bacteria. Sexual selection is predicted to accentuate the survival of the future progeny during negative FD survival selection. More specifically, females are predicted to select mates that produce progeny genotypes that exhibit highest survival during survival selection imposed by adult males. However, no empirical evidence demonstrates the existence of FD sexual selection with respect to fitness payoffs of genetic polymorphisms. Here we tested this prediction using the common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a species with three male color morphs (orange, white, yellow) that exhibit morph frequency cycles. In a first step we tested the congruence of the morph frequency change with the predicted change in three independent populations, differing in male color morph frequency and state of the FD morph cycle. Thereafter we ran standardized sexual selection assays in which we excluded alternative mechanisms that potentially induce negative FD selection, and we quantified inter-sexual behavior. The patterns of sexual selection and the observed behavior were in line with context-dependent female mate choice and male behavior played a minor role. Moreover, the strength of the sexual selection was within the magnitude of selection required to produce the observed 3-4-year and 6-8 year morph frequency cycles at low and high altitudes, respectively. In summary, the study provides the first experimental evidence that underpins the crucial assumption of the RPS games suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, and plants; namely, that sexual selection produces negative-FD selection. This indicates that sexual selection, in our study exert by females, might be a crucial driver of the maintenance of genetic polymorphisms.

Frequency and risk factors for extraintestinal manifestations in the Swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Data on the frequency of extraintestinal manifestations (EIMs) in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) and analyses of their risk factors are scarce. We evaluated their prevalence and risk factors in a large nationwide cohort of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. METHODS: IBD patients from an adult clinical cohort in Switzerland (Swiss IBD cohort study) were prospectively included. Data from validated physician enrolment questionnaires were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 950 patients were included, 580 (61%) with CD (mean age 41 years) and 370 (39%) with UC (mean age 42 years). Of these, 249 (43%) of CD and 113 (31%) of UC patients had one to five EIMs. The following EIMs were found: arthritis (CD 33%, UC 21%), aphthous stomatitis (CD 10%, UC 4%), uveitis (CD 6%, UC 4%), erythema nodosum (CD 6%, UC 3%), ankylosing spondylitis (CD 6%, UC 2%), psoriasis (CD 2%, UC 1%), pyoderma gangrenosum (CD and UC each 2%), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (CD 1%, UC 4%). Multiple logistic regression identified the following risk factors for ongoing EIM in CD: active disease (odds ratio (OR)=1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.17-3.23, P=0.01), and positive IBD family history (OR=1.77, 95% CI=1.07-2.92, P=0.025). No risk factors were identified in UC patients. CONCLUSIONS: EIMs are a frequent problem in CD and UC patients. Active disease and positive IBD family history are associated with ongoing EIM in CD patients. Identification of EIM prevalence and associated risk factors may result in increased awareness for this problem and thereby facilitating their diagnosis and therapeutic management.

Ecology of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in areas of Serra do Mar State Park, State of São Paulo, Brazil. I - Monthly frequency and climatic factors

The ecology of mosquitoes were studied (Diptera: Culicidae) in areas of Serra do Mar State Park, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Systematized monthly human bait collections were made three times a day, for periods of 2 or 3 h each, in sylvatic and rural areas for 24 consecutive months (January 1991 to December 1992). A total of 24,943 specimens of adult mosquitoes belonging to 57 species were collected during 622 collective periods. Coquillettidia chrysonotum was the most frequent collected mosquito (45.8%) followed by Aedes serratus (6.8%), Cq. venezuelensis (6.5%), Psorophora ferox (5.2) and Ps. albipes (3.1%). The monthly averages of temperature and relative humidity were inserted in the ten-year average limits of maximum and minimum of the previous ten-years. Rainfall accompanied the curve of the ten-year averages. Those climatic factors were influential in the incidence of some species; temperature: Anopheles cruzii, An. mediopunctatus, Ae. scapularis, Ae. fulvus, Cq. chrysonotum, Cq. venezuelensis, Runchomyia reversa, Wyeomyia dyari, Wy. confusa, Wy. shannoni, Wy. theobaldi and Limatus flavisetosus; relative humidity: Ae. serratus, Ae. scapularis, Cq. venezuelensis and Ru. reversa; rainfall: An. cruzii, Ae. scapularis, Ae. fulvus, Cq. venezuelensis Ru. reversa, Wy. theobaldi and Li. flavisetosus.

Use of combined suspension laryngoscopy, flexible bronchoscopy and high frequency jet ventilation for Y-shaped airway stents delivery

La trachée et les bronches proximales sont de fins conduits subtils, ingénieusement structurés par une partie cartilagineuse antérieure résistante aux variations de pression et une partie membraneuse postérieure souple. Par leurs faibles volumes (espace mort) ils délivrent un grand pourcentage de l'air inspiré aux voies distales, puis au parenchyme pulmonaire, permettant les échanges de gaz. Cette belle harmonie respiratoire peut être rapidement mise à mal dès qu'un processus atteint ces voies respiratoires proximales, soit en les comprimant, processus sténosant, soit en affaiblissant leur structure, trachéo-bronchomalacie, soit en ouvrant leur paroi sur les structures médiastinales, fistule trachéo/broncho-médiastinales, pleurales ou autres. Le pronostic vital est alors rapidement engagé au vu de l'absolue nécessité du bon fonctionnement de ces fins conduits, une petite diminution du calibre de leurs fines lumières provoquant une baisse importante de leurs surfaces. Dans ces situations à haut potentiel de complication majeure les interventions endoscopiques pour restaurer l'intégrité de ces conduits sont alors fort risquées, et il est primordial de pouvoir les effectuer dans un cadre sécurisé au maximum. La réalisation de ces gestes par la technique décrite dans notre article « Use of combined suspension laryngoscopy, flexible bronchoscopy and high frequency jet ventilation forY-shaped airway stents delivery" permet la sécurité nécessaire à ces situations instable, en effet -la laryngoscopie en suspension expose les voies proximales en offrant un accès le plus large possible à l'arbre trachéobronchique ce qui permet l insertion de multiples instruments parfois volumineux, -la Jet ventilation assure une oxygénation et une ventilation adéquate par un fin cathéter placé soit dans le poumon sain, soit en distalité de la lésion -la bronchoscopie souple, passant au travers d'endroits exigus et courbes permet le déploiement sous vision direct, au millimètre près, de divers dispositifs. Cette association remplace avantageusement la technique traditionnelle qui insère les stents à l'aveugle, et en apnée, ce qui représente de haut risque de mauvais positionnement des stents avec des conséquences immédiates sur l'oxygénation et la ventilation souvent déjà bien altérées. Perspective et conclusion : cette technique est utile pour l'insertion des stents en Y, centraux, comme décrit dans notre article, et les indications peuvent être étendues aux stents distaux pour lesquels l'accès n'est parfois pas aisé avec le bronchoscope rigide, et pour d'autres interventions endoscopiques, laser, cryothérapie, radiofréquence ou l'insertion de nouveaux dispositifs.

Frequency of specific anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgM, IgA and IgE in Colombian patients with acute and chronic ocular toxoplasmosis

We studied the frequency of specific anti-Toxoplasma IgM, IgA and IgE antibodies in serum of 28 immunocompetent Colombian patients, selected by ophthalmologists and with lesions that were compatible with ocular toxoplasmosis. Patients were classified in three groups: (i) group 1 consisted of ten patients with a first episode; (ii) group 2, with seven patients with a recurrence and (iii) group 3, consisted of eleven patients with chronic chorioretinal lesion without uveitis. We found that 10/28 (35%) of Colombian patients with ocular toxoplasmosis possessed at least one serological marker for Toxoplasma infection different from IgG. In group 1 (first episode), we found simultaneous presence of specific IgM plus IgA plus IgE in 1/10 (10%). In group 2 (recurrences) in 1/7 (14%) we found IgM and IgA test positives and in 1/7 (14%) we found IgM and IgE tests positives. In group 3 (toxoplasmic chorioretinal scar) the IgA serological test was positive in 2/11 (18%). These results show that serum IgM or IgA or IgE can be present during recurrences.