Power system parameters forecasting using Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.

Fiber-optic interferometric two-dimensional scattering-measurement system.

We present a fiber-optic interferometric system for measuring depth-resolved scattering in two angular dimensions using Fourier-domain low-coherence interferometry. The system is a unique hybrid of the Michelson and Sagnac interferometer topologies. The collection arm of the interferometer is scanned in two dimensions to detect angular scattering from the sample, which can then be analyzed to determine the structure of the scatterers. A key feature of the system is the full control of polarization of both the illumination and the collection fields, allowing for polarization-sensitive detection, which is essential for two-dimensional angular measurements. System performance is demonstrated using a double-layer microsphere phantom. Experimental data from samples with different sizes and acquired with different polarizations show excellent agreement with Mie theory, producing structural measurements with subwavelength accuracy.

In vivo inhibition of elevated myocardial beta-adrenergic receptor kinase activity in hybrid transgenic mice restores normal beta-adrenergic signaling and function.

BACKGROUND: The clinical syndrome of heart failure (HF) is characterized by an impaired cardiac beta-adrenergic receptor (betaAR) system, which is critical in the regulation of myocardial function. Expression of the betaAR kinase (betaARK1), which phosphorylates and uncouples betaARs, is elevated in human HF; this likely contributes to the abnormal betaAR responsiveness that occurs with beta-agonist administration. We previously showed that transgenic mice with increased myocardial betaARK1 expression had impaired cardiac function in vivo and that inhibiting endogenous betaARK1 activity in the heart led to enhanced myocardial function. METHODS AND RESULTS: We created hybrid transgenic mice with cardiac-specific concomitant overexpression of both betaARK1 and an inhibitor of betaARK1 activity to study the feasibility and functional consequences of the inhibition of elevated betaARK1 activity similar to that present in human HF. Transgenic mice with myocardial overexpression of betaARK1 (3 to 5-fold) have a blunted in vivo contractile response to isoproterenol when compared with non-transgenic control mice. In the hybrid transgenic mice, although myocardial betaARK1 levels remained elevated due to transgene expression, in vitro betaARK1 activity returned to control levels and the percentage of betaARs in the high-affinity state increased to normal wild-type levels. Furthermore, the in vivo left ventricular contractile response to betaAR stimulation was restored to normal in the hybrid double-transgenic mice. CONCLUSIONS: Novel hybrid transgenic mice can be created with concomitant cardiac-specific overexpression of 2 independent transgenes with opposing actions. Elevated myocardial betaARK1 in transgenic mouse hearts (to levels seen in human HF) can be inhibited in vivo by a peptide that can prevent agonist-stimulated desensitization of cardiac betaARs. This may represent a novel strategy to improve myocardial function in the setting of compromised heart function.

A novel neural/symbolic hybrid approach to heuristically optimized fuel allocation and automated revision of heuristics in nuclear engineering

FUELCON is an expert system for optimized refueling design in nuclear engineering. This task is crucial for keeping down operating costs at a plant without compromising safety. FUELCON proposes sets of alternative configurations of allocation of fuel assemblies that are each positioned in the planar grid of a horizontal section of a reactor core. Results are simulated, and an expert user can also use FUELCON to revise rulesets and improve on his or her heuristics. The successful completion of FUELCON led this research team into undertaking a panoply of sequel projects, of which we provide a meta-architectural comparative formal discussion. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel adaptive technique that learns the optimal allocation heuristic for the various cores. The algorithm is a hybrid of a fine-grained neural network and symbolic computation components. This hybrid architecture is sensitive enough to learn the particular characteristics of the ‘in-core fuel management problem’ at hand, and is powerful enough to use this information fully to automatically revise heuristics, thus improving upon those provided by a human expert.

Models and tools for an integrated European environmental management and decision support system, (IEEMDSS)

This work proceeds from the assumption that a European environmental information and communication system (EEICS) is already established. In the context of primary users (land-use planners, conservationists, and environmental researchers) we ask what use may be made of the EEICS for building models and tools which is of use in building decision support systems for the land-use planner. The complex task facing the next generation of environmental and forest modellers is described, and a range of relevant modelling approaches are reviewed. These include visualization and GIS; statistical tabulation and database SQL, MDA and OLAP methods. The major problem of noncomparability of the definitions and measures of forest area and timber volume is introduced and the possibility of a model-based solution is considered. The possibility of using an ambitious and challenging biogeochemical modelling approach to understanding and managing European forests sustainably is discussed. It is emphasised that all modern methodological disciplines must be brought to bear, and a heuristic hybrid modelling approach should be used so as to ensure that the benefits of practical empirical modelling approaches are utilised in addition to the scientifically well-founded and holistic ecosystem and environmental modelling. The data and information system required is likely to end up as a grid-based-framework because of the heavy use of computationally intensive model-based facilities.

Two-hybrid analysis of the interaction between the fission yeast proteins Sal3 and Cdc25

Cdc25 is a mitosis triggering phosphatase in Schizosaccharomyces pombe, and is transported in to the nucleus during G2 phase by the importin-β protein Sal3. Cdc25 triggers mitosis and cell division by dephosphorylating tyrosine 15 of Cdc2. In sal3 mutants, Cdc25 is not transported into the nucleus and the cells halt in G2. The purpose of this study is to use a two-hybrid system to determine the nature of the relationship between Sal3 and Cdc25. Previous research has failed to detect any interaction between the two proteins, but specific modifications were made to the two-hybrid system in this study including the separation of Sal3 into its two binding domains, the addition of fluorescent tags to the fusion protein, and the reversal of plasmids in the fusion proteins. Unique PCR primers were successfully designed, based on a multiple alignment of Sal3 and its homologues, to separate Sal3 into its two domains.

Dynamical and steady-state requirements for effective entanglement transfer

Entanglement transfer processes from a continuous-variable (CV) to a qubit system have primary importance in quantum information processing due to some practical implications in the realization of a quantum network. A CV system can propagate entanglement while a qubit system is easy to manipulate. We study conditions to entangle two atomic qubits with a two-mode squeezed field driving two cavities containing the atoms.

Dynamical entanglement transfer for quantum-information networks

A key element in the architecture of a quantum-information processing network is a reliable physical interface between fields and qubits. We study a process of entanglement transfer engineering, where two remote qubits respectively interact with an entangled two-mode continuous-variable (CV) field. We quantify the entanglement induced in the qubit state at the expenses of the loss of entanglement in the CV system. We discuss the range of mixed entangled states which can be obtained with this setup. Furthermore, we suggest a protocol to determine the residual entangling power of the light fields inferring, thus, the entanglement left in the field modes which, after the interaction, are no longer in a Gaussian state. Two different setups are proposed: a cavity-QED system and an interface between superconducting qubits and field modes. We address in detail the practical difficulties inherent in these two proposals, showing that the latter is promising in many aspects.

Enhanced dynamical entanglement transfer with multiple qubits

We present two strategies to enhance the dynamical entanglement transfer from continuous-variable (CV) to finite-dimensional systems by employing multiple qubits. First, we consider the entanglement transfer to a composite finite-dimensional system of many qubits simultaneously interacting with a bipartite CV field. We show that, considering realistic conditions in the generation of CV entanglement, a small number of qubits resonantly coupled to the CV system are sufficient for an almost complete dynamical transfer of the entanglement. Our analysis also sheds further light on the transition between the microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of composite finite-dimensional systems coupled to bosonic fields (like atomic clouds interacting with light). Furthermore, we present a protocol based on sequential interactions of the CV system with some ancillary qubit systems and on subsequent measurements, allowing us to probabilistically convert CV entanglement into "almost-perfect" Bell pairs of two qubits. Our proposals are suited for realizations in various experimental settings, ranging from cavity-QED to cavity-integrated superconducting devices.

Time operators and shift representation of dynamical systems

We introduce and characterise time operators for unilateral shifts and exact endomorphisms. The associated shift representation of evolution is related to the spectral representation by a generalized Fourier transform. We illustrate the results for a simple exact system, namely the Renyi map.

Robust fuzzy Gustafson-Kessel clustering for nonlinear system identification

This paper deals with Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model identification of nonlinear systems using fuzzy clustering. In particular, an extended fuzzy Gustafson-Kessel (EGK) clustering algorithm, using robust competitive agglomeration (RCA), is developed for automatically constructing a TS fuzzy model from system input-output data. The EGK algorithm can automatically determine the 'optimal' number of clusters from the training data set. It is shown that the EGK approach is relatively insensitive to initialization and is less susceptible to local minima, a benefit derived from its agglomerate property. This issue is often overlooked in the current literature on nonlinear identification using conventional fuzzy clustering. Furthermore, the robust statistical concepts underlying the EGK algorithm help to alleviate the difficulty of cluster identification in the construction of a TS fuzzy model from noisy training data. A new hybrid identification strategy is then formulated, which combines the EGK algorithm with a locally weighted, least-squares method for the estimation of local sub-model parameters. The efficacy of this new approach is demonstrated through function approximation examples and also by application to the identification of an automatic voltage regulation (AVR) loop for a simulated 3 kVA laboratory micro-machine system.

Disturbance attenuation in linear systems via dynamical compensators: A parametric eigenstructure assignment approach

A simple approach is proposed for disturbance attenuation in multivariable linear systems via dynamical output compensators based on complete parametric eigenstructure assignment. The basic idea is to minimise the H-2 norm of the disturbance-output transfer function using the design freedom provided by eigenstructure assignment. For robustness, the closed-loop system is restricted to be nondefective. Besides the design parameters, the closed-loop eigenvalues are also optimised within desired regions on the left-half complex plane to ensure both closed-loop stability and dynamical performance. With the proposed approach, additional closed-loop specifications can be easily achieved. As a demonstration, robust pole assignment, in the sense that the closed-loop eigenvalues are as insensitive as possible to open-loop system parameter perturbations, is treated. Application of the proposed approach to robust control of a magnetic bearing with a pair of opposing electromagnets and a rigid rotor is discussed.

WASP-8b: a retrograde transiting planet in a multiple system

We report the discovery of WASP-8b, a transiting planet of 2.25 ± 0.08 MJup on a strongly inclined eccentric 8.15-day orbit, moving in a retrograde direction to the rotation of its late-G host star. Evidence is found that the star is in a multiple stellar system with two other companions. The dynamical complexity of the system indicates that it may have experienced secular interactions such as the Kozai mechanism or a formation that differs from the “classical” disc-migration theory.

Spin-orbit angle measurements for six southern transiting planets. New insights into the dynamical origins of hot Jupiters

Context. Several competing scenarios for planetary-system formation and evolution seek to explain how hot Jupiters came to be so close to their parent stars. Most planetary parameters evolve with time, making it hard to distinguish between models. The obliquity of an orbit with respect to the stellar rotation axis is thought to be more stable than other parameters such as eccentricity. Most planets, to date, appear aligned with the stellar rotation axis; the few misaligned planets so far detected are massive (> 2 MJ). Aims: Our goal is to measure the degree of alignment between planetary orbits and stellar spin axes, to search for potential correlations with eccentricity or other planetary parameters and to measure long term radial velocity variability indicating the presence of other bodies in the system. Methods: For transiting planets, the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect allows the measurement of the sky-projected angle ß between the stellar rotation axis and a planet's orbital axis. Using the HARPS spectrograph, we observed the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect for six transiting hot Jupiters found by the WASP consortium. We combine these with long term radial velocity measurements obtained with CORALIE. We used a combined analysis of photometry and radial velocities, fitting model parameters with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. After obtaining ß we attempt to statistically determine the distribution of the real spin-orbit angle ?. Results: We found that three of our targets have ß above 90°: WASP-2b: ß = 153°+11-15, WASP-15b: ß = 139.6°+5.2-4.3 and WASP-17b: ß = 148.5°+5.1-4.2; the other three (WASP-4b, WASP-5b and WASP-18b) have angles compatible with 0°. We find no dependence between the misaligned angle and planet mass nor with any other planetary parameter. All six orbits are close to circular, with only one firm detection of eccentricity e = 0.00848+0.00085-0.00095 in WASP-18b. No long-term radial acceleration was detected for any of the targets. Combining all previous 20 measurements of ß and our six and transforming them into a distribution of ? we find that between about 45 and 85% of hot Jupiters have ? > 30°. Conclusions: Most hot Jupiters are misaligned, with a large variety of spin-orbit angles. We find observations and predictions using the Kozai mechanism match well. If these observational facts are confirmed in the future, we may then conclude that most hot Jupiters are formed from a dynamical and tidal origin without the necessity to use type I or II migration. At present, standard disc migration cannot explain the observations without invoking at least another additional process.