Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

RISK FOR INJURIES AMONG MOTORCYCLISTS INVOLVED IN TRAFFIC INCIDENTS

The objective of this study was to identify, among motorcyclists involved in traffic incidents, the factors associated with risk of injuries. In 2004, in the city of Maringa-PR, it was determined that there were a total of 2,362 motorcyclists involved in traffic incidents, according to records from the local Military Police. Multivariate analysis was applied to identify the factors associated with the presence of injury. A significantly higher probability of injury was observed among motorcyclists involved in collisions (odds Ratio = 11.19) and falls (odds Ratio = 3.81); the estimated odds ratio for females was close to four, and those involved in incidents including up to two vehicles were 2.63 times more likely to have injuries. Women involved in motorcycle falls and collisions with up to two vehicles stood out as a high-risk group for injuries.

Using gene-network landscape to dissect genotype effects of TCF7L2 genetic variant on diabetes and cardiovascular risk

Vaquero AR, Ferreira NE, Omae SV, Rodrigues MV, Teixeira SK, Krieger JE, Pereira AC. Using gene-network landscape to dissect genotype effects of TCF7L2 genetic variant on diabetes and cardiovascular risk. Physiol Genomics 44: 903-914, 2012. First published August 7, 2012; doi:10.1152/physiolgenomics.00030.2012.-The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) within the TCF7L2 gene, rs7903146, is, to date, the most significant genetic marker associated with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk. Nonetheless, its functional role in disease pathology is poorly understood. The aim of the present study was to investigate, in vascular smooth muscle cells from 92 patients undergoing aortocoronary bypass surgery, the contribution of this SNP in T2DM using expression levels and expression correlation comparison approaches, which were visually represented as gene interaction networks. Initially, the expression levels of 41 genes (seven TCF7L2 splice forms and 40 other T2DM relevant genes) were compared between rs7903146 wild-type (CC) and T2DM-risk (CT + TT) genotype groups. Next, we compared the expression correlation patterns of these 41 genes between groups to observe if the relationships between genes were different. Five TCF7L2 splice forms and nine genes showed significant expression differences between groups. RXR alpha gene was pinpointed as showing the most different expression correlation pattern with other genes. Therefore, T2DM risk alleles appear to be influencing TCF7L2 splice form's expression in vascular smooth muscle cells, and RXR alpha gene is pointed out as a treatment target candidate for risk reduction in individuals with high risk of developing T2DM, especially individuals harboring TCF7L2 risk genotypes.

Maternal LAMP/p55gagHIV-1 DNA Immunization Induces In Utero Priming and a Long-Lasting Immune Response in Vaccinated Neonates

Infants born to HIV-infected mothers are at high risk of becoming infected during gestation or the breastfeeding period. A search is thus warranted for vaccine formulations that will prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission. The LAMP/gag DNA chimeric vaccine encodes the HIV-1 p55gag fused to the lysosome-associated membrane protein-1 (LAMP-1) and has been shown to enhance anti-Gag antibody (Ab) and cellular immune responses in adult and neonatal mice; such a vaccine represents a new concept in antigen presentation. In this study, we evaluated the effect of LAMP/gag DNA immunization on neonates either before conception or during pregnancy. LAMP/gag immunization of BALB/c mice before conception by the intradermal route led to the transfer of anti-Gag IgG1 Ab through the placenta and via breastfeeding. Furthermore, there were an increased percentage of CD4+ CD25+ Foxp3+ T cells in the spleens of neonates. When offspring were immunized with LAMP/gag DNA, the anti-Gag Ab response and the Gag-specific IFN-gamma-secreting cells were decreased. Inhibition of anti-Gag Ab production and cellular responses were not observed six months after immunization, indicating that maternal immunization did not interfere with the long-lasting memory response in offspring. Injection of purified IgG in conjunction with LAMP/gag DNA immunization decreased humoral and cytotoxic T-cell responses. LAMP/gag DNA immunization by intradermal injection prior to conception promoted the transfer of Ab, leading to a diminished response to Gag without interfering with the development of anti-Gag T- and B-cell memory. Finally, we assessed responses after one intravenous injection of LAMP/gag DNA during the last five days of pregnancy. The intravenous injection led to in utero immunization. In conclusion, DNA vaccine enconding LAMP-1 with Gag and other HIV-1 antigens should be considered in the development of a protective vaccine for the maternal/fetal and newborn periods.

Hepatitis B virus infection in Haemodialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil. Predictive risk factors for infection and molecular epidemiology

Abstract Background Patients under haemodialysis are considered at high risk to acquire hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Since few data are reported from Brazil, our aim was to assess the frequency and risk factors for HBV infection in haemodialysis patients from 22 Dialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, south of Brazil. Methods This study includes 813 patients, 149 haemodialysis workers and 772 healthy controls matched by sex and age. Serum samples were assayed for HBV markers and viraemia was detected by nested PCR. HBV was genotyped by partial S gene sequencing. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses with stepwise logistic regression analysis were carried out to analyse the relationship between HBV infection and the characteristics of patients and their Dialysis Units. Results Frequency of HBV infection was 10.0%, 2.7% and 2.7% among patients, haemodialysis workers and controls, respectively. Amidst patients, the most frequent HBV genotypes were A (30.6%), D (57.1%) and F (12.2%). Univariate analysis showed association between HBV infection and total time in haemodialysis, type of dialysis equipment, hygiene and sterilization of equipment, number of times reusing the dialysis lines and filters, number of patients per care-worker and current HCV infection. The logistic regression model showed that total time in haemodialysis, number of times of reusing the dialysis lines and filters, and number of patients per worker were significantly related to HBV infection. Conclusions Frequency of HBV infection among haemodialysis patients at Santa Catarina state is very high. The most frequent HBV genotypes were A, D and F. The risk for a patient to become HBV positive increase 1.47 times each month of haemodialysis; 1.96 times if the dialysis unit reuses the lines and filters ≥ 10 times compared with haemodialysis units which reuse < 10 times; 3.42 times if the number of patients per worker is more than five. Sequence similarity among the HBV S gene from isolates of different patients pointed out to nosocomial transmission.

Cardiometabolic risk reduction through lifestyle intervention programs in the Brazilian public health system

Public health strategies to reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality should focus on global cardiometabolic risk reduction. The efficacy of lifestyle changes to prevent type 2 diabetes have been demonstrated, but low-cost interventions to reduce cardiometabolic risk in Latin-America have been rarely reported. Our group developed 2 programs to promote health of high-risk individuals attending a primary care center in Brazil. This study compared the effects of two 9-month lifestyle interventions, one based on medical consultations (traditional) and another with 13 multi-professional group sessions in addition to the medical consultations (intensive) on cardiometabolic parameters. Adults were eligible if they had pre-diabetes (according to the American Diabetes Association) and/or metabolic syndrome (International Diabetes Federation criteria for Latin-America). Data were expressed as means and standard deviations or percentages and compared between groups or testing visits. A p-value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: 180 individuals agreed to participate (35.0% men, mean age 54.7 ± 12.3 years, 86.1% overweight or obese). 83 were allocated to the traditional and 97 to the intensive program. Both interventions reduced body mass index, waist circumference and tumor necrosis factor-α. Only intensive program reduced 2-hour plasma glucose and blood pressure and increased adiponectin values, but HDL-cholesterol increased only in the traditional. Also, responses to programs were better in intensive compared to traditional program in terms of blood pressure and adiponectin improvements. No new case of diabetes in intensive but 3 cases and one myocardial infarction in traditional program were detected. Both programs induced metabolic improvement in the short-term, but if better results in the intensive are due to higher awareness about risk and self-motivation deserves further investigation. In conclusion, these low-cost interventions are able to minimize cardiometabolic risk factors involved in the progression to type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease.

Prevalence of the BRCA1 founder mutation c.5266dupin Brazilian individuals at-risk for the hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome

About 5-10% of breast and ovarian carcinomas are hereditary and most of these result from germline mutations in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. In women of Ashkenazi Jewish ascendance, up to 30% of breast and ovarian carcinomas may be attributable to mutations in these genes, where 3 founder mutations, c.68_69del (185delAG) and c.5266dup (5382insC) in BRCA1 and c.5946del (6174delT) in BRCA2, are commonly encountered. It has been suggested by some authors that screening for founder mutations should be undertaken in all Brazilian women with breast cancer. Thus, the goal of this study was to determine the prevalence of three founder mutations, commonly identified in Ashkenazi individuals in a sample of non-Ashkenazi cancer-affected Brazilian women with clearly defined risk factors for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome. Among 137 unrelated Brazilian women from HBOC families, the BRCA1c.5266dup mutation was identified in seven individuals (5%). This prevalence is similar to that encountered in non-Ashkenazi HBOC families in other populations. However, among patients with bilateral breast cancer, the frequency of c.5266dup was significantly higher when compared to patients with unilateral breast tumors (12.1% vs 1.2%, p = 0.023). The BRCA1 c.68_69del and BRCA2 c.5946del mutations did not occur in this sample. We conclude that screening non-Ashkenazi breast cancer-affected women from the ethnically heterogeneous Brazilian populations for the BRCA1 c.68_69del and BRCA2 c.5946del is not justified, and that screening for BRCA1c.5266dup should be considered in high risk patients, given its prevalence as a single mutation. In high-risk patients, a negative screening result should always be followed by comprehensive BRCA gene testing. The finding of a significantly higher frequency of BRCA1 c.5266dup in women with bilateral breast cancer, as well as existence of other as yet unidentified founder mutations in this population, should be further assessed in a larger well characterized high-risk cohort.

Prozessorientierte Modellierung des Wassertransports zur Bewertung von Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen in bewaldeten Entstehungsgebieten

Im der vorliegenden Arbeit wurden die Einflüsse verschiedener wasserwirtschaftlicher und forstwirtschaftlicher Maßnahmen auf das Abflussverhalten von bewaldeten Gebieten untersucht. Der Schwerpunkt lag auf der Erfassung der Veränderungen im natürlichen System durch die jeweilige Maßnahme. Der Wassertransport wurde dabei auf der Prozessebene im Hangmaßstab betrachtet. Wichtige Erkenntnisse hinsichtlich der Hochwasserentstehung in bewaldeten Gebieten wurden gewonnen. Daraus abgeleitet wurde eine Bewertung sowohl der natürlich gegebenen Systemgrößen als auch der einzelnen Maßnahmen bezüglich einer Hochwasservorsorge in Wäldern.Berücksichtigt wurden Änderungen in der Bestockung und in der Feinerschließung der bewaldeten Flächen durch Wege und Wirtschaftstrecken. Die Wassertransportprozesse wurden im Gelände untersucht und in Abhängigkeit der globalen klimatischen Randbedingungen sowie den bodenhydraulischen und landnutzungsspezifischen Parameter mit dem Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modell CATFLOW simuliert.Die Abflussdynamik wird im untersuchten Maßstab im wesentlichen durch die gegebene Bodenhydraulik, die Vorfeuchte des Bodens bei einem Niederschlag und durch die Niederschlagsintensität bestimmt. Die vergleichende Untersuchung von zwei rheinland-pfälzischen Waldstandorten ergab, dass im Bereich Soonwald ein relativ hohes Hochwasserrisiko besteht. Hier wirken sich Eingriffe durch forstwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftungsmaßnahmen stark aus. Im Bereich des Pfälzerwaldes ist nur ein sehr geringes Hochwasserrisiko gegeben, da hier die natürlichen Gebietseigenschaften die Eingriffe durch Bewirtschaftungsmaßnahmen überprägen.

The prediction of flash evaporation in superheated fuel injections for automotive applications

In gasoline Port Fuel Injection (PFI) and Direct Injection (GDI) internal combustion engines, the liquid fuel might be injected into a gaseous ambient in a superheated state, resulting in flash boiling of the fuel. The importance to investigate and predict such a process is due to the influence it has on the liquid fuel atomization and vaporization and thus on combustion, with direct implications on engine performances and exhaust gas emissions. The topic of the present PhD research involves the numerical analysis of the behaviour of the superheated fuel during the injection process, in high pressure injection systems like the ones equipping GDI engines. Particular emphasis is on the investigation of the effects of the fuel superheating degree on atomization dynamics and spray characteristics. The present work is a look at the flash evaporation and flash boiling modeling, from an engineering point of view, addressed to keep the complex physics involved as simple as possible, however capturing the main characteristics of a superheated fuel injection.

Automatic risk evaluation in elderly patients based on Autonomic Nervous System assessment

Dysfunction of Autonomic Nervous System (ANS) is a typical feature of chronic heart failure and other cardiovascular disease. As a simple non-invasive technology, heart rate variability (HRV) analysis provides reliable information on autonomic modulation of heart rate. The aim of this thesis was to research and develop automatic methods based on ANS assessment for evaluation of risk in cardiac patients. Several features selection and machine learning algorithms have been combined to achieve the goals. Automatic assessment of disease severity in Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) patients: a completely automatic method, based on long-term HRV was proposed in order to automatically assess the severity of CHF, achieving a sensitivity rate of 93% and a specificity rate of 64% in discriminating severe versus mild patients. Automatic identification of hypertensive patients at high risk of vascular events: a completely automatic system was proposed in order to identify hypertensive patients at higher risk to develop vascular events in the 12 months following the electrocardiographic recordings, achieving a sensitivity rate of 71% and a specificity rate of 86% in identifying high-risk subjects among hypertensive patients. Automatic identification of hypertensive patients with history of fall: it was explored whether an automatic identification of fallers among hypertensive patients based on HRV was feasible. The results obtained in this thesis could have implications both in clinical practice and in clinical research. The system has been designed and developed in order to be clinically feasible. Moreover, since 5-minute ECG recording is inexpensive, easy to assess, and non-invasive, future research will focus on the clinical applicability of the system as a screening tool in non-specialized ambulatories, in order to identify high-risk patients to be shortlisted for more complex investigations.

Significance of Periodontal Risk Assessment in the recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss

Aim: To investigate the association of the Periodontal Risk Assessment (PRA) model categories with periodontitis recurrence and tooth loss during supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) and to explore the role of patient compliance. Material and Methods: In a retrospective cohort, PRA was performed for 160 patients after active periodontal therapy (APT) and after 9.5 ± 4.5 years of SPT. The recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss were analysed according to the patient's risk profile (low, moderate or high) after APT and compliance with SPT. The association of risk factors with tooth loss and recurrence of periodontitis was investigated using logistic regression analysis. Results: In 18.2% of patients with a low-risk profile, in 42.2% of patients with a moderate-risk profile and in 49.2% of patients with a high-risk profile after APT, periodontitis recurred. During SPT, 1.61 ± 2.8 teeth/patient were lost. High-risk profile patients lost significantly more teeth (2.59 ± 3.9) than patients with moderate- (1.02 ± 1.8) or low-risk profiles (1.18 ± 1.9) (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0229). Patients with erratic compliance lost significantly (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0067) more teeth (3.11 ± 4.5) than patients compliant with SPT (1.07 ± 1.6). Conclusions: In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a high-risk patient profile according to the PRA model at the end of APT was associated with recurrence of periodontitis. Another significant factor for recurrence of periodontitis was an SPT duration of more than 10 years.

Awake tracheal intubation using the Sensascope in 13 patients with an anticipated difficult airway

We present the use of the SensaScope, an S-shaped rigid fibreoptic scope with a flexible distal end, in a series of 13 patients at high risk of, or known to have, a difficult intubation. Patients received conscious sedation with midazolam or fentanyl combined with a remifentanil infusion and topical lidocaine to the oral mucosa and to the trachea via a trans-cricoid injection. Spontaneous ventilation was maintained until confirmation of tracheal intubation. In all cases, tracheal intubation was achieved using the SensaScope. The median (IQR [range]) insertion time (measured from the time the facemask was taken away from the face until an end-expiratory CO(2) reading was visible on the monitor) was 58 s (38-111 [28-300]s). In nine of the 13 cases, advancement of the SensaScope into the trachea was easy. Difficulties included a poor view associated with a bleeding diathesis and saliva, transient loss of spontaneous breathing, and difficulty in advancing the tracheal tube in a patient with unforeseen tracheal narrowing. A poor view in two patients was partially improved by a high continuous flow of oxygen. The SensaScope may be a valuable alternative to other rigid or flexible fibreoptic scopes for awake intubation of spontaneously breathing patients with a predicted difficult airway.

Preoperative mapping of arterial spinal supply using 3.0-T MR angiography with an intravasal contrast medium and high-spatial-resolution steady-state

Preoperative mapping of the arterial spinal supply prior to thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm repair is highly relevant because of high risk for postoperative ischemic spinal cord injuries such as paraparesis or paraplegia.

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study

Background Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or “inoperable” patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. Methods All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Results Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% ± 13.9% vs STS 6.7% ± 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES ≥15%, 16% had an STS ≥10%, and 40% had an LES ≥20% or STS ≥10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Conclusions Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making.

Risk of sequelae after Chlamydia trachomatis genital infection in women

Chlamydia trachomatis infection, the most common reportable disease in the United States, can lead to pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), infertility, ectopic pregnancy, and chronic pelvic pain. Although C. trachomatis is identified among many women who receive a diagnosis of PID, the incidence and timing of PID and long-term sequelae from an untreated chlamydial infection have not been fully determined. This article examines evidence reviewed as part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Chlamydia Immunology and Control Expert Advisory Meeting; 24 reports were included. We found no prospective studies directly assessing risk of long-term reproductive sequelae, such as infertility, after untreated C. trachomatis infection. Several studies assessed PID diagnosis after untreated chlamydial infection, but rates varied widely, making it difficult to determine an overall estimate. In high-risk settings, 2%-5% of untreated women developed PID within the approximately 2-week period between testing positive for C. trachomatis and returning for treatment. However, the rate of PID progression in the general, asymptomatic population followed up for longer periods appeared to be low. According to the largest studies, after symptomatic PID of any cause has occurred, up to 18% of women may develop infertility. In several studies, repeated chlamydial infection was associated with PID and other reproductive sequelae, although it was difficult to determine whether the risk per infection increased with each recurrent episode. The present review critically evaluates this body of literature and suggests future research directions. Specifically, prospective studies assessing rates of symptomatic PID, subclinical tubal damage, and long-term reproductive sequelae after C. trachomatis infection; better tools to measure PID and tubal damage; and studies on the natural history of repeated chlamydial infections are needed.