FAST ADAPTIVE PENALIZED SPLINES

This paper proposes a numerically simple routine for locally adaptive smoothing. The locally heterogeneous regression function is modelled as a penalized spline with a smoothly varying smoothing parameter modelled as another penalized spline. This is being formulated as hierarchical mixed model, with spline coe±cients following a normal distribution, which by itself has a smooth structure over the variances. The modelling exercise is in line with Baladandayuthapani, Mallick & Carroll (2005) or Crainiceanu, Ruppert & Carroll (2006). But in contrast to these papers Laplace's method is used for estimation based on the marginal likelihood. This is numerically simple and fast and provides satisfactory results quickly. We also extend the idea to spatial smoothing and smoothing in the presence of non normal response.

DECOMPOSITION OF REGRESSION ESTIMATORS TO EXPLORE THE INFLUENCE OF "UNMEASURED" TIME-VARYING CONFOUNDERS

In environmental epidemiology, exposure X and health outcome Y vary in space and time. We present a method to diagnose the possible influence of unmeasured confounders U on the estimated effect of X on Y and to propose several approaches to robust estimation. The idea is to use space and time as proxy measures for the unmeasured factors U. We start with the time series case where X and Y are continuous variables at equally-spaced times and assume a linear model. We define matching estimator b(u)s that correspond to pairs of observations with specific lag u. Controlling for a smooth function of time, St, using a kernel estimator is roughly equivalent to estimating the association with a linear combination of the b(u)s with weights that involve two components: the assumptions about the smoothness of St and the normalized variogram of the X process. When an unmeasured confounder U exists, but the model otherwise correctly controls for measured confounders, the excess variation in b(u)s is evidence of confounding by U. We use the plot of b(u)s versus lag u, lagged-estimator-plot (LEP), to diagnose the influence of U on the effect of X on Y. We use appropriate linear combination of b(u)s or extrapolate to b(0) to obtain novel estimators that are more robust to the influence of smooth U. The methods are extended to time series log-linear models and to spatial analyses. The LEP plot gives us a direct view of the magnitude of the estimators for each lag u and provides evidence when models did not adequately describe the data.

Reduced neuronal efficacy in progressive mild cognitive impairment: a prospective fMRI study on visuospatial processing

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) often refers to the preclinical stage of dementia, where the majority develop Alzheimer's disease (AD). Given that neurodegenerative burden and compensatory mechanisms might exist before accepted clinical symptoms of AD are noticeable, the current prospective study aimed to investigate the functioning of brain regions in the visuospatial networks responsible for preclinical symptoms in AD using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Eighteen MCI patients were evaluated and clinically followed for approximately 3 years. Five progressed to AD (PMCI) and eight remained stable (SMCI). Thirteen age-, gender- and education-matched controls also participated. An angle discrimination task with varying task demands was used. Brain activation patterns as well as task demand-dependent and -independent signal changes between the groups were investigated by using an extended general linear model including individual performance (reaction time [RT]) of each single trial. Similar behavioral (RT and accuracy) responses were observed between MCI patients and controls. A network of bilateral activations, e.g. dorsal pathway, which increased linearly with increasing task demand, was engaged in all subjects. Compared with SMCI patients and controls, PMCI patients showed a stronger relation between task demand and brain activity in left superior parietal lobules (SPL) as well as a general task demand-independent increased activation in left precuneus. Altered brain function can be detected at a group level in individuals that progress to AD before changes occur at the behavioral level. Increased parietal activation in PMCI could reflect a reduced neuronal efficacy due to accumulating AD pathology and might predict future clinical decline in patients with MCI.

Cortical and subcortical correlates of electroencephalographic alpha rhythm modulation

Neural correlates of electroencephalographic (EEG) alpha rhythm are poorly understood. Here, we related EEG alpha rhythm in awake humans to blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal change determined by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Topographical EEG was recorded simultaneously with fMRI during an open versus closed eyes and an auditory stimulation versus silence condition. EEG was separated into spatial components of maximal temporal independence using independent component analysis. Alpha component amplitudes and stimulus conditions served as general linear model regressors of the fMRI signal time course. In both paradigms, EEG alpha component amplitudes were associated with BOLD signal decreases in occipital areas, but not in thalamus, when a standard BOLD response curve (maximum effect at approximately 6 s) was assumed. The part of the alpha regressor independent of the protocol condition, however, revealed significant positive thalamic and mesencephalic correlations with a mean time delay of approximately 2.5 s between EEG and BOLD signals. The inverse relationship between EEG alpha amplitude and BOLD signals in primary and secondary visual areas suggests that widespread thalamocortical synchronization is associated with decreased brain metabolism. While the temporal relationship of this association is consistent with metabolic changes occurring simultaneously with changes in the alpha rhythm, sites in the medial thalamus and in the anterior midbrain were found to correlate with short time lag. Assuming a canonical hemodynamic response function, this finding is indicative of activity preceding the actual EEG change by some seconds.

Similarities in the Subgingival Microbiota Assessed by a Curet Sampling Method at Sites With Chronic Periodontitis

Background: The goal of this study was to determine whether site-specific differences in the subgingival microbiota could be detected by the checkerboard method in subjects with periodontitis. Methods: Subjects with at least six periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PD) between 5 and 7 mm were enrolled in the study. Subgingival plaque samples were collected with sterile curets by a single-stroke procedure at six selected periodontal sites from 161 subjects (966 subgingival sites). Subgingival bacterial samples were assayed with the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method identifying 37 species. Results: Probing depths of 5, 6, and 7 mm were found at 50% (n = 483), 34% (n = 328), and 16% (n = 155) of sites, respectively. Statistical analysis failed to demonstrate differences in the sum of bacterial counts by tooth type (P = 0.18) or specific location of the sample (P = 0.78). With the exceptions of Campylobacter gracilis (P <0.001) and Actinomyces naeslundii (P <0.001), analysis by general linear model multivariate regression failed to identify subject or sample location factors as explanatory to microbiologic results. A trend of difference in bacterial load by tooth type was found for Prevotella nigrescens (P <0.01). At a cutoff level of >/=1.0 x 10(5), Porphyromonas gingivalis and Tannerella forsythia (previously T. forsythensis) were present at 48.0% to 56.3% and 46.0% to 51.2% of sampled sites, respectively. Conclusions: Given the similarities in the clinical evidence of periodontitis, the presence and levels of 37 species commonly studied in periodontitis are similar, with no differences between molar, premolar, and incisor/cuspid subgingival sites. This may facilitate microbiologic sampling strategies in subjects during periodontal therapy.

Estimation of the flammability zone boundaries with thermodynamic and empirical equations

The flammability zone boundaries are very important properties to prevent explosions in the process industries. Within the boundaries, a flame or explosion can occur so it is important to understand these boundaries to prevent fires and explosions. Very little work has been reported in the literature to model the flammability zone boundaries. Two boundaries are defined and studied: the upper flammability zone boundary and the lower flammability zone boundary. Three methods are presented to predict the upper and lower flammability zone boundaries: The linear model The extended linear model, and An empirical model The linear model is a thermodynamic model that uses the upper flammability limit (UFL) and lower flammability limit (LFL) to calculate two adiabatic flame temperatures. When the proper assumptions are applied, the linear model can be reduced to the well-known equation yLOC = zyLFL for estimation of the limiting oxygen concentration. The extended linear model attempts to account for the changes in the reactions along the UFL boundary. Finally, the empirical method fits the boundaries with linear equations between the UFL or LFL and the intercept with the oxygen axis. xx Comparison of the models to experimental data of the flammability zone shows that the best model for estimating the flammability zone boundaries is the empirical method. It is shown that is fits the limiting oxygen concentration (LOC), upper oxygen limit (UOL), and the lower oxygen limit (LOL) quite well. The regression coefficient values for the fits to the LOC, UOL, and LOL are 0.672, 0.968, and 0.959, respectively. This is better than the fit of the "zyLFL" method for the LOC in which the regression coefficient’s value is 0.416.

Berry-Esseen bounds for nonlinear statistics, and asymptotic relative efficiency between correlation statistics

Four papers, written in collaboration with the author’s graduate school advisor, are presented. In the first paper, uniform and non-uniform Berry-Esseen (BE) bounds on the convergence to normality of a general class of nonlinear statistics are provided; novel applications to specific statistics, including the non-central Student’s, Pearson’s, and the non-central Hotelling’s, are also stated. In the second paper, a BE bound on the rate of convergence of the F-statistic used in testing hypotheses from a general linear model is given. The third paper considers the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) between the Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlation statistics; conditions sufficient to ensure that the Spearman and Kendall statistics are equally (asymptotically) efficient are provided, and several models are considered which illustrate the use of such conditions. Lastly, the fourth paper proves that, in the bivariate normal model, the ARE between any of these correlation statistics possesses certain monotonicity properties; quadratic lower and upper bounds on the ARE are stated as direct applications of such monotonicity patterns.

COMPRESSION BEHAVIOR AT HIGH STRAIN RATE FOR AN ULTRA HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETE

The need for a stronger and more durable building material is becoming more important as the structural engineering field expands and challenges the behavioral limits of current materials. One of the demands for stronger material is rooted in the effects that dynamic loading has on a structure. High strain rates on the order of 101 s-1 to 103 s-1, though a small part of the overall types of loading that occur anywhere between 10-8 s-1 to 104 s-1 and at any point in a structures life, have very important effects when considering dynamic loading on a structure. High strain rates such as these can cause the material and structure to behave differently than at slower strain rates, which necessitates the need for the testing of materials under such loading to understand its behavior. Ultra high performance concrete (UHPC), a relatively new material in the U.S. construction industry, exhibits many enhanced strength and durability properties compared to the standard normal strength concrete. However, the use of this material for high strain rate applications requires an understanding of UHPC’s dynamic properties under corresponding loads. One such dynamic property is the increase in compressive strength under high strain rate load conditions, quantified as the dynamic increase factor (DIF). This factor allows a designer to relate the dynamic compressive strength back to the static compressive strength, which generally is a well-established property. Previous research establishes the relationships for the concept of DIF in design. The generally accepted methodology for obtaining high strain rates to study the enhanced behavior of compressive material strength is the split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB). In this research, 83 Cor-Tuf UHPC specimens were tested in dynamic compression using a SHPB at Michigan Technological University. The specimens were separated into two categories: ambient cured and thermally treated, with aspect ratios of 0.5:1, 1:1, and 2:1 within each category. There was statistically no significant difference in mean DIF for the aspect ratios and cure regimes that were considered in this study. DIF’s ranged from 1.85 to 2.09. Failure modes were observed to be mostly Type 2, Type 4, or combinations thereof for all specimen aspect ratios when classified according to ASTM C39 fracture pattern guidelines. The Comite Euro-International du Beton (CEB) model for DIF versus strain rate does not accurately predict the DIF for UHPC data gathered in this study. Additionally, a measurement system analysis was conducted to observe variance within the measurement system and a general linear model analysis was performed to examine the interaction and main effects that aspect ratio, cannon pressure, and cure method have on the maximum dynamic stress.

Longitudinal platelet reactivity to acute psychological stress among older men and women

Platelet reactivity to acute stress is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk; however, little research exists to provide systematic methodological foundations needed to generate strong longitudinal research designs. Study objectives were: 1) to evaluate whether markers of platelet function increase in response to an acute psychological stress test among older adults, 2) to establish whether reactivity remains robust upon repeated administration (i.e. three occasions approximately 1 year apart), and 3) to evaluate whether two different acute speech stress tasks elicit similar platelet responses. The 149 subjects (mean age 71 years) gave a brief impromptu speech on one of two randomly assigned topics involving interpersonal conflict. Blood samples drawn at baseline and post-speech were assayed using flow cytometry for platelet responses on three outcomes (% aggregates, % P-selectin expression, and % fibrinogen receptor expression). Three-level hierarchical linear modeling analyses revealed significant stress-induced increases in platelet activation on all outcomes (p < 0.001). No significant habituation on any measure was found. Additional reactivity differences were associated with male gender, history of myocardial infarction, and use of aspirin, statins, and antidepressants. The results demonstrate that laboratory acute stress tests continued to produce robust platelet reactivity on three activation markers among older adults over 3 years.

Factors related to treatment intensity in Swiss primary care

BACKGROUND: Questions about the existence of supplier-induced demand emerge repeatedly in discussions about governing Swiss health care. This study therefore aimed to evaluate the interrelationship between structural factors of supply and the volume of services that are provided by primary care physicians in Switzerland. METHODS: The study was designed as a cross-sectional investigation, based on the complete claims data from all Swiss health care insurers for the year 2004, which covered information from 6087 primary care physicians and 4.7 million patients. Utilization-based health service areas were constructed and used as spatial units to analyze effects of density of supply. Hierarchical linear models were applied to analyze the data. RESULTS: The data showed that, within a service area, a higher density of primary care physicians was associated with higher mortality rates and specialist density but not with treatment intensity in primary care. Higher specialist density was weakly associated with higher mortality rates and with higher treatment intensity density of primary care physicians. Annual physician-level data indicate a disproportionate increase of supplied services irrespective of the size of the number of patients treated during the same year and, even in high volume practices, no rationing but a paradoxical inducement of consultations occurred. The results provide empirical evidence that higher densities of primary care physicians, specialists and the availability of out-patient hospital clinics in a given area are associated with higher volume of supplied services per patient in primary care practices. Analyses stratified by language regions showed differences that emphasize the effect of the cantonal based (fragmented) governance of Swiss health care. CONCLUSION: The study shows high volumes in Swiss primary care and provides evidence that the volume of supply is not driven by medical needs alone. Effects related to the competition for patients between primary care physicians, specialists and out-patient hospital clinics and an association with the system of reimbursing services on a fee-for-service basis can not be excluded.

Exact Solutions to the Symmetric and Asymmetric Vehicle Routing Problem with Simultaneous Delivery and Pick-Up

In reverse logistics networks, products (e.g., bottles or containers) have to be transported from a depot to customer locations and, after use, from customer locations back to the depot. In order to operate economically beneficial, companies prefer a simultaneous delivery and pick-up service. The resulting Vehicle Routing Problem with Simultaneous Delivery and Pick-up (VRPSDP) is an operational problem, which has to be solved daily by many companies. We present two mixed-integer linear model formulations for the VRPSDP, namely a vehicle-flow and a commodity-flow model. In order to strengthen the models, domain-reducing preprocessing techniques, and effective cutting planes are outlined. Symmetric benchmark instances known from the literature as well as new asymmetric instances derived from real-world problems are solved to optimality using CPLEX 12.1.

Is there good simulation basic training for end-to-side vascular microanastomoses?

BACKGROUND Microvascular anastomosis is the cornerstone of free tissue transfers. Irrespective of the microsurgical technique that one seeks to integrate or improve, the time commitment in the laboratory is significant. After extensive previous training on several animal models, we sought to identify an animal model that circumvents the following issues: ethical rules, cost, time-consuming and expensive anesthesia, and surgical preparation of tissues required to access vessels before performing the microsurgical training, not to mention that laboratories are closed on weekends. METHODS Between January 2012 and April 2012, a total of 91 earthworms were used for 150 microsurgical training exercises to simulate vascular end-to-side microanastomosis. The training sessions were divided into ten periods of 7 days. Each training session included 15 simulations of end-to-side vascular microanastomoses: larger than 1.5 mm (n=5), between 1.0 and 1.5 mm (n=5), and smaller than 1.0 mm (n=5). A linear model with the main variables being the number of weeks (as a numerical covariate) and the size of the animal (as a factor) was used to determine the trend in time of anastomosis over subsequent weeks as well as the differences between the different size groups. RESULTS The linear model shows a significant trend (p<0.001) in time of anastomosis in the course of the training, as well as significant differences (p<0.001) between the groups of animals of different sizes. For microanastomoses larger than 1.5 mm, the mean anastomosis time decreased from 19.3±1.0 to 11.1±0.4 min between the first and last week of training (decrease of 42.5%). For training with smaller diameters, the results showed a decrease in execution time of 43.2% (diameter between 1.0 and 1.5 mm) and 40.9% (diameter<1.0 mm) between the first and last periods. The study demonstrates an improvement in the dexterity and speed of nodes execution. CONCLUSION The earthworm appears to be a reliable experimental model for microsurgical training of end-to-side microanastomoses. Its numerous advantages are discussed here and we predict training on earthworms will significantly grow and develop in the near future. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Is the relation between early post-session reports and treatment outcome an epiphenomenon of intake distress and early response? A multi-predictor analysis in outpatient psychotherapy

The early phase of psychotherapy has been regarded as a sensitive period in the unfolding of psychotherapy leading to positive outcomes. However, there is disagreement about the degree to which early (especially relationship-related) session experiences predict outcome over and above initial levels of distress and early response to treatment. The goal of the present study was to simultaneously examine outcome at post treatment as a function of (a) intake symptom and interpersonal distress as well as early change in well-being and symptoms, (b) the patient's early session-experiences, (c) the therapist's early session-experiences/interventions, and (d) their interactions. The data of 430 psychotherapy completers treated by 151 therapists were analyzed using hierarchical linear models. Results indicate that early positive intra- and interpersonal session experiences as reported by patients and therapists after the sessions explained 58% of variance of a composite outcome measure, taking intake distress and early response into account. All predictors (other than problem-activating therapists' interventions) contributed to later treatment outcomes if entered as single predictors. However, the multi-predictor analyses indicated that interpersonal distress at intake as well as the early interpersonal session experiences by patients and therapists remained robust predictors of outcome. The findings underscore that early in therapy therapists (and their supervisors) need to understand and monitor multiple interconnected components simultaneously

Normative MR Cervical Spinal Canal Dimensions

Purpose To provide normal values of the cervical spinal canal and spinal cord dimensions in several planes with respect to spinal level, age, sex, and body height. Materials and Methods This study was approved by the institutional review board; all individuals provided signed informed consent. In a prospective multicenter study, two blinded raters independently examined cervical spine magnetic resonance (MR) images of 140 healthy volunteers who were white. The midsagittal diameters and areas of spinal canal and spinal cord, respectively, were measured at the midvertebral levels of C1, C3, and C6. A multivariate general linear model described the influence of sex, body height, age, and spinal level on the measured values. Results There were differences for sex, spinal level, interaction between sex and level, and body height, while age had significant yet limited influence. Normative ranges for the sagittal diameters and areas of spinal canal and spinal cord were defined at C1, C3, and C6 levels for men and women. In addition to a calculation of normative ranges for a specific sex, spinal level, age, and body height data, data for three different height subgroups at 45 years of age were extracted. These results show a range of the spinal canal dimensions at C1 (from 10.7 to 19.7 mm), C3 (from 9.4 to 17.2 mm), and C6 (from 9.2 to 16.8 mm) levels. Conclusion : The dimensions of the cervical spinal canal and cord in healthy individuals are associated with spinal level, sex, age, and height. © RSNA, 2013 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Aptitude–Treatment interaction effects in psychooncological interventions

Objective: To examine aptitude–treatment interaction (ATI) effects in cancer patients receiving psychoonco- logical interventions (POIs). Method: N=36 cancer patients were treated with POI. Hierarchical linear regression was used to test two interaction effects between patient baseline characteristics (aptitudes) and process analyses of therapy sessions (treatment) on change in mental health during POI. Results: Patients with high emotional distress did best when their therapy reduced arousal, and patients with lower emotional distress benefited most if therapists emphasized arousal induction. The interaction between the coping style of the patient (internalizing vs. externalizing) and the focus of the treatment (emotion vs. behavior) did not predict POI outcomes. Conclusions: The ATI effect of patient's distress and therapist's arousal induction/reduction may help therapists to make differential treatment decisions in POI. Tailoring treatments to cancer patients based on their personal characteristics may enhance the effectiveness of POI.