Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Short-term scheduling considering five-minute and hour-ahead energy resource management

The introduction of new distributed energy resources, based on natural intermittent power sources, in power systems imposes the development of new adequate operation management and control methods. This paper proposes a short-term Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodology performed in two phases. The first one addresses the hour-ahead ERM scheduling and the second one deals with the five-minute ahead ERM scheduling. Both phases consider the day-ahead resource scheduling solution. The ERM scheduling is formulated as an optimization problem that aims to minimize the operation costs from the point of view of a virtual power player that manages the network and the existing resources. The optimization problem is solved by a deterministic mixed-integer non-linear programming approach and by a heuristic approach based on genetic algorithms. A case study considering a distribution network with 33 bus, 66 distributed generation, 32 loads with demand response contracts and 7 storage units has been implemented in a PSCADbased simulator developed in the field of the presented work, in order to validate the proposed short-term ERM methodology considering the dynamic power system behavior.

Optimization model for medium term natural gas commitment

In this paper we study the optimal natural gas commitment for a known demand scenario. This study implies the best location of GSUs to supply all demands and the optimal allocation from sources to gas loads, through an appropriate transportation mode, in order to minimize total system costs. Our emphasis is on the formulation and use of a suitable optimization model, reflecting real-world operations and the constraints of natural gas systems. The mathematical model is based on a Lagrangean heuristic, using the Lagrangean relaxation, an efficient approach to solve the problem. Computational results are presented for Iberian and American natural gas systems, geographically organized in 65 and 88 load nodes, respectively. The location model results, supported by the computational application GasView, show the optimal location and allocation solution, system total costs and suggest a suitable gas transportation mode, presented in both numerical and graphic supports.

Natural gas system operation: lagrangean optimization techniques

To comply with natural gas demand growth patterns and Europe´s import dependency, the gas industry needs to organize an efficient upstream infrastructure. The best location of Gas Supply Units – GSUs and the alternative transportation mode – by phisical or virtual pipelines, are the key of a successful industry. In this work we study the optimal location of GSUs, as well as determining the most efficient allocation from gas loads to sources, selecting the best transportation mode, observing specific technical restrictions and minimizing system total costs. For the location of GSUs on system we use the P-median problem, for assigning gas demands nodes to source facilities we use the classical transportation problem. The developed model is an optimisation-based approach, based on a Lagrangean heuristic, using Lagrangean relaxation for P-median problems – Simple Lagrangean Heuristic. The solution of this heuristic can be improved by adding a local search procedure - the Lagrangean Reallocation Heuristic. These two heuristics, Simple Lagrangean and Lagrangean Reallocation, were tested on a realistic network - the primary Iberian natural gas network, organized with 65 nodes, connected by physical and virtual pipelines. Computational results are presented for both approaches, showing the location gas sources and allocation loads arrangement, system total costs and gas transportation mode.

Optimization techniques for power distribution planning with uncertainties: a comparative study

Important research effort has been devoted to the topic of optimal planning of distribution systems. The non linear nature of the system, the need to consider a large number of scenarios and the increasing necessity to deal with uncertainties make optimal planning in distribution systems a difficult task. Heuristic techniques approaches have been proposed to deal with these issues, overcoming some of the inherent difficulties of classic methodologies. This paper considers several methodologies used to address planning problems of electrical power distribution networks, namely mixedinteger linear programming (MILP), ant colony algorithms (AC), genetic algorithms (GA), tabu search (TS), branch exchange (BE), simulated annealing (SA) and the Bender´s decomposition deterministic non-linear optimization technique (BD). Adequacy of theses techniques to deal with uncertainties is discussed. The behaviour of each optimization technique is compared from the point of view of the obtained solution and of the methodology performance. The paper presents results of the application of these optimization techniques to a real case of a 10-kV electrical distribution system with 201 nodes that feeds an urban area.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Case-based reasoning for self-optimizing behavior

In this paper we present a Self-Optimizing module, inspired on Autonomic Computing, acquiring a scheduling system with the ability to automatically select a Meta-heuristic to use in the optimization process, so as its parameterization. Case-based Reasoning was used so the system may be able of learning from the acquired experience, in the resolution of similar problems. From the obtained results we conclude about the benefit of its use.

Meta-heuristics tunning using CBR for dynamic scheduling

This paper addresses the problem of Biological Inspired Optimization Techniques (BIT) parameterization, considering the importance of this issue in the design of BIT especially when considering real world situations, subject to external perturbations. A learning module with the objective to permit a Multi-Agent Scheduling System to automatically select a Meta-heuristic and its parameterization to use in the optimization process is proposed. For the learning process, Casebased Reasoning was used, allowing the system to learn from experience, in the resolution of similar problems. Analyzing the obtained results we conclude about the advantages of its use.

Self-optimizing through CBR learning

In this paper, we foresee the use of Multi-Agent Systems for supporting dynamic and distributed scheduling in Manufacturing Systems. We also envisage the use of Autonomic properties in order to reduce the complexity of managing systems and human interference. By combining Multi-Agent Systems, Autonomic Computing, and Nature Inspired Techniques we propose an approach for the resolution of dynamic scheduling problem, with Case-based Reasoning Learning capabilities. The objective is to permit a system to be able to automatically adopt/select a Meta-heuristic and respective parameterization considering scheduling characteristics. From the comparison of the obtained results with previous results, we conclude about the benefits of its use.

Economic, environmental and mixed objective functions in non-linear process optimization using simulated annealing and tabu search

Screening of topologies developed by hierarchical heuristic procedures can be carried out by comparing their optimal performance. In this work we will be exploiting mono-objective process optimization using two algorithms, simulated annealing and tabu search, and four different objective functions: two of the net present value type, one of them including environmental costs and two of the global potential impact type. The hydrodealkylation of toluene to produce benzene was used as case study, considering five topologies with different complexities mainly obtained by including or not liquid recycling and heat integration. The performance of the algorithms together with the objective functions was observed, analyzed and discussed from various perspectives: average deviation of results for each algorithm, capacity for producing high purity product, screening of topologies, objective functions robustness in screening of topologies, trade-offs between economic and environmental type objective functions and variability of optimum solutions.

Controladores linguísticos Fuzzy

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Despacho económico de unidades com funções de custo não convexas usando enxames

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Energia

Convex optimization framework for intermediate deadline assignment in soft and hard real-time distributed systems

It is generally challenging to determine end-to-end delays of applications for maximizing the aggregate system utility subject to timing constraints. Many practical approaches suggest the use of intermediate deadline of tasks in order to control and upper-bound their end-to-end delays. This paper proposes a unified framework for different time-sensitive, global optimization problems, and solves them in a distributed manner using Lagrangian duality. The framework uses global viewpoints to assign intermediate deadlines, taking resource contention among tasks into consideration. For soft real-time tasks, the proposed framework effectively addresses the deadline assignment problem while maximizing the aggregate quality of service. For hard real-time tasks, we show that existing heuristic solutions to the deadline assignment problem can be incorporated into the proposed framework, enriching their mathematical interpretation.

A biased random-key genetic algorithm with forward-backward improvement for the resource constrained project scheduling problem

This paper presents a biased random-key genetic algorithm for the resource constrained project scheduling problem. The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. Active schedules are constructed using a priority-rule heuristic in which the priorities of the activities are defined by the genetic algorithm. A forward-backward improvement procedure is applied to all solutions. The chromosomes supplied by the genetic algorithm are adjusted to reflect the solutions obtained by the improvement procedure. The heuristic is tested on a set of standard problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computational results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

A random key based genetic algorithm for the resource constrained project scheduling problem

This paper presents a genetic algorithm for the Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP). The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. The schedule is constructed using a heuristic priority rule in which the priorities of the activities are defined by the genetic algorithm. The heuristic generates parameterized active schedules. The approach was tested on a set of standard problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computational results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.