A Fractional Perspective to the Bond Graph Modelling of World Economies

Inspired in dynamic systems theory and Brewer’s contributions to apply it to economics, this paper establishes a bond graph model. Two main variables, a set of inter-connectivities based on nodes and links (bonds) and a fractional order dynamical perspective, prove to be a good macro-economic representation of countries’ potential performance in nowadays globalization. The estimations based on time series for 50 countries throughout the last 50 decades confirm the accuracy of the model and the importance of scale for economic performance.

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

Social impact bond feasibility study

Youth unemployment is one of the most pressing social issues in Portugal, often associated to a lack of skills. Faz-Te Forward (FFWD), a Portuguese employability programme, has demonstrated great potential for impact in solving this issue, especially amongst a neglected segment of the population – those belonging to “sandwich families”. The present thesis, integrated in the SIB Research Programme from the Social Investment Lab, evaluates the feasibility of this programme to be financed through a Social Impact Bond, an innovative outcomes-based financing model. From a data analysis undertaken to FFWD’s historical information, a business case for a SIB was developed.

Social impact bond feasibility study: Children and youth at risk: the Projecto Família program

Social impact bonds are an increasingly popular method of unlocking typical social investment barriers and fuelling social innovation. This feasibility study aims to understand whether a social impact bond is a suitable tool for decreasing unnecessary foster care placements in Portugal, which have been proven to cause significant social and financial damage to societies. This research question is answered through a financial model which combines the costs of this social problem with Projecto Família’s intervention model, a leading intensive family preservation service. Main findings suggest using SIB funding for a 5-year project with the goal of generating the proper impact measurement metrics lacking in the field.

Bond portfolio diversification

Portfolio diversification benefits have been extensively documented and acknowledge in the literature since 1952. However, the majority of the studies have focus on an equity context, and only very few on bonds. The study purposed tries to understand and measure the diversification benefits for a pure bond portfolio by investing in securities with different credit risks, maturities and even geographies. Diversification benefits were achieved under the proposed model and some conclusions were withdrawn.

Shared lives social impact bond feasibility study

Loneliness and isolation among the elderly is an enormous problem in Portugal. Interventions to tackle loneliness worldwide have had limited success, and new approaches are needed. Shared Lives is an adult foster placement service in the UK that shows significant promise in tackling both loneliness, isolation and other societal challenges linked with ageing. This feasibility study suggests that replicating a Shared Lives service in Portugal, using a Social Impact Bond (SIB), is viable and likely to create both social and financial value for all stakeholders involved. This study provides recommendations for how a Shared Lives SIB could be designed and implemented.

Social impact bond feasibility study AEIPS intervention

AEIPS is a Portuguese social organization promoting the integration of people with mental health illnesses and/or substance abuse in the community through the intervention model Housing First. The philosophy of Housing First aims at lifting people out of their homelessness status by providing instant access to individualized and permanent housing as well as support services. Housing First projects from all over the world have proved very positive results in terms of residential stability and community integration of its participants. This feasibility study evaluates the suitability of using a Social Impact Bond to fund the Housing First intervention of AEIPS in Portugal.

Evaluation of Bond Retainage in Portland Cement Concrete Overlays Using Infrared Thermography and Ground Penetrating Radar, HR-537, Final Report, 1989

When concrete deterioration begins to occur in highway pavement, repairs become necessary to assure the rider safety, extend its useful life and restore its riding qualities. One rehabilitation technique used to restore the pavement to acceptable highway standards is to apply a thin portland cement concrete (PCC) overlay to the existing pavement. First, any necessary repairs are made to the existing pavement, the surface is then prepared, and the PCC overlay is applied. Brice Petrides-Donohue, Inc. (Donohue) was retained by the Iowa Department of Transportation (IDOT) to evaluate the present condition with respect to debonding of the PCC overlay at fifteen sites on Interstate 80 and State Highway 141 throughout the State of Iowa. This was accomplished by conducting an infrared thermographic and ground penetrating radar survey of these sites which were selected by the Iowa Department of Transportation. The fifteen selected sites were all two lanes wide and one-tenth of a mile long, for a total of three lane miles or 190,080 square feet. The selected sites are as follows: On Interstate 80 Eastbound, from milepost 35.25 to 35.35, milepost 36.00 to 36.10, milepost 37.00 to 37.10, milepost 38.00 to 38.10 and milepost 39.00 to 39.10, on State Highway 141 from milepost 134.00 to 134.10, milepost 134.90 to milepost 135.00, milepost 135.90 to 136.00, milepost 137.00 to 137.10 and milepost 138.00 to 138.10, and on Interstate 80 Westbound from milepost 184.00 to 184.10, milepost 185.00 to 185.10, milepost 186.00 to 186.10, milepost 187.00 to 187.10, and from milepost 188.00 to 188.10.

Effect of the position of the double-bond in monounsaturated phospholipids on the dynamics of model membranes

Therllloelynalllics of lllodel 11lel1ll)rane systeills containing 1110nollnsaturatecl I)lloSI)holil) ids is strongly infllienced l)y the I)osition of the C==C dOlll)le })ond in tIle acyl chain. The telllI)eratllres of both chain-nlelting (TM) and La -+ HI! (TH) I)hase traIlsitions are lowered by IIp to 20°C when C==C is Inoved froln positions 6 or 11 to I)osition 9 in an 18-carl)on chain. This work is an attellll)t to ellicidate the uIlderlying Illoleclilar Illechanisllls reSI)Onsi])le for tllese draillatic tllerillodynaillic changes. Mixtllres of di-18: 1 l)hoSI)hatidylethanolanline with C==C at l)ositioIlS 6, 9, 11 were llsed, witll a sI1lall aI1lOlint of I)erdellterated tetradecanol, known to })e a gooel rel)Orter of the cllain Illoleclilar order. SI)ectral second 11I0I1lents were llsed to Illonitor tIle La -+ HII I)hase transition, which was fOllnd to ])e ])road (2-6°C), with a slight llysteresis on heatiIlg/cooling. The orientational order I)rofiles were nleasllred 1lSiIlg 2H Illiclear Illagnetic resonance and changes in these order I)rofiles between La aIld HII I)hases silow l)oth a local increase in order in the vicinity of the C==C bonds and an o\Terall decrease ill the average orientational order of the chain as a whole. These Sll])tle changes recluire })oth high-fidelity SI)ectrosCol)y and a careflll data analysis that takes into aCCOllnt the effects due to l)artiall1lagnetically-indllced orientational ordering of the l)ilayers. In tIle COIltext of SOllle recently rel)Orted cross-relaxation 11leaSlirenlents in Silllilar l)llOSI)llolil)iels, 0111' reslilts sllggest that large-anll)litllde conforlllational changes in the interior of tIle I110del 111eI11])ranes I)lay a 1110re significant role than I)reviollsly thOllght.