Theory and practice in the field of foresight

Purpose – The paper aims to explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and to give some suggestions on how to reduce it. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis of practical foresight activities and suggestions are based on a literature review, the author's own research and practice in the field of foresight and futures studies, and her participation in the work of a European project (COST A22). Findings – Two different types of practical foresight activities have developed. One of them, the practice of foresight of critical futures studies (FCFS) is an application of a theory of futures studies. The other, termed here as praxis foresight (PF), has no theoretical basis and responds directly to practical needs. At present a gap can be perceived between theory and practice. PF distinguishes itself from the practice and theory of FCFS and narrows the construction space of futures. Neither FCFS nor PF deals with content issues of the outer world. Reducing the gap depends on renewal of joint discourses and research about experience of different practical foresight activities and manageability of complex dynamics in foresight. Production and feedback of self-reflective and reflective foresight knowledge could improve theory and practice. Originality/value – Contemporary practical foresight activities are analysed and suggestions to reduce the gap are developed in the context of the linkage between theory and practice. This paper is thought provoking for futurists, foresight managers and university researchers.

E-commerce evolution in Hungary: an investigation of critical succes factor

In this paper we highlight how the use of internet has changed from 2004 to 2009 among Hungarian companies, how their expectations about the role of e-commerce as a competitive advantage has evolved and whether perceived benefits of e-commerce show a shift from 2004 to 2009.We investigate the role of environmental factors and market orientation as two relevant types of critical success factors proposed by the management literature and measure their impacts on Internet usage, expectations about e-commerce and perceived benefits of ecommerce. Our findings suggest that market orientation has a positive effect on Internet usage and perceived benefits of e-commerce. Internet usage and expectations are dependent on the vulnerability of the company to its macroeconomic environment. The positive outcomes of joining the EU seem to influence whether a company is able to exploit e-commerce benefits.

A „kivonulás, tiltakozás, hűség” koncepció és a „kapitalizmus változatai” elmélet közti kapcsolat (The connection between the ‘Exit, Voice, and Loyalty’ conception and the ‘Varieties of Capitalism’ theory)

Tanulmányunkban az Albert 0. Hirschman által kialakított „kivonulás, tiltakozás, hűség” koncepció metaelméleti felhasználásával a „kapitalizmus változatai” elméletet vesszük bírálat alá. Egyrészt arra mutatunk rá, hogy már a különböző piacgazdasági modellek tipologizálásához használt vállalatelméleti dimenziójú elemzések is építkeznek a Hirschman-trilemmából, másrészt arra hívjuk fel a figyelmet, hogy olyan sajátos eszközről van szó, amely a tőke- és munkaerő-piaci folyamatok elemzésére támaszkodva új perspektívát is kínál a kapitalista gazdaságok komparatív vizsgálatához. A dolgozat terjedelmi okokból az empirikus kutatásokat megalapozó elméleti alapozásra szorítkozik. ____ In our study we deal with the critical analysis of the “varieties of capitalism” theory by using the “exit, voice, and loyalty” meta-theory invented by Albert O. Hirschman. The paper emphasizes that on the one hand the analyses of the theory of the firm and business used for the classification of distinct market models are also building upon the “Hirschman trilemma”, and on the other hand, it draws attention to the fact that the Hirschmanian method based on labor market and capital market offers a new perspective for the comparative analysis of capitalist economies. The focus of the article is only the theoretical foundation of empirical studies as a result of limitation of scope.

Mi a baj a modern szervezetekkel? – Kritikai menedzsmentelméletek (What is the problem in modern organisations? – Critical Management Studies)

A nemzetközi, elsősorban európai szervezettudományban mára meghatározóvá vált a kritikai megközelítés, a hazai szakirodalomban mégis elvétve találni rá utalásokat. A szerzők írásukban tárgyalják, hogy a kritikai menedzsmentelméletek (KME) szemszögéből miként bírálható a mindenkori szervezeti gyakorlat, és miért bírálandók a főáramú menedzsmentelméletek. A tanulmány fő részében elméleti megkülönböztetéseket tesznek: egyrészt elhatárolják a kritikai megközelítést a főáramú szervezetelméletektől, másrészt több szempontból is különbséget tesznek a különféle – de egyaránt a KME alá tartozó – kritikai megközelítések között. De a kritikai szemlélethez hűen nem csak a puszta elméletismertetés volt a céljuk: e bevezetés és problémafelvető tanulmány – s a későbbiekben tervezett cikksorozat – szándékuk szerint vitaindítóként is szolgál. Abban bíznak, hogy a felvetett kérdésekről valódi, lényegi párbeszédet generálhatnak a hazai menedzsmenttudományban (kutatók, oktatók és elméletalkalmazók körében), mely kihathat a szervezeti gyakorlatra is. _____ Critical Management Studies (CMS) as a field of organization studies (OS) has become central internationally, and especially in Europe. Yet, its appearance is still very rare in the Hungarian OS literature. In this study first the authors discuss how the nowadays dominant organizational practices along with the mainstream management and organization theories are to be criticized from a Critical Management perspective. In the main section, so as to define CMS, they make important theoretical distinctions, first between CMS and mainstream organization theories (in general), and then among the different critical approaches that nevertheless all fall under the broad CMS umbrella. But, in line with a truly critical attitude, they not only go into theoretical discussions but, at least to their intention, the purpose of this introductory paper is also to addresses important problems both in the theory and the practice of organization and management. Therefore, it could serve as an opening of an important debate or dialogue in the Hungarian academic community (researchers, educators and other professionals), a theoretical discussion that could have real influence on organizational practice too.

Kritikai menedzsmentelméletek – irányzatok és törésvonalak (Critical Management Studies: Streams and Debates)

A tanulmány a kritikai menedzsmentelméletek (KME) területére nyújt bevezetést a Hidegh – Gelei – Primecz (2014) által a Vezetéstudomány hasábjain kezdeményezett cikksorozat részeként. A KME fogalmát a korábbi, szervezetelméleti paradigmákat ismertető tanulmányoktól eltérő módon, a mátrixokon át-/ túllépve lépcsőszerűen tárgyalja. Bemutatja, hogyan definiálhatjuk kritikai módon a menedzsmentet és a menedzsmentelméleteket, majd a KME meghatározása és három legfontosabb jellemzője (denaturalizáció, teljesítményelv-ellenesség, reflexivitás) következik. A cikk ismerteti a KME három legmarkánsabb irányzatát: a posztmodernizmust, a kritikai elméletet és a kritikai realizmust, valamint az irányzatok közötti főbb vitapontokba nyújt betekintést. ____ The article provides an introduction into Critical Management Studies (CMS) continuing the series of papers about CMS started by Hidegh – Gelei – Primecz (2014) on the pages of Budapest Management Review. CMS is defined here in a different way as in the previously published Hungarian articles which were based on the Burrell-Morgan matrix (1979). This study exceeds the boundaries of the matrix by introducing management and management studies as a critical field step by step. The definition of CMS is followed by the main features of the field: denaturalization, anti-performativity and reflexivity (Fournier – Grey, 2000). Finally, the paper discusses the three most prevailing streams of CMS: postmodernism, critical theory and critical realism by providing an insight into the main debates among them.

Making Life Choices Program: A psychoeducational intervention for promoting critical cognitive and affective competencies in adolescents at-risk for problem behaviors

The long term goal of the work described is to contribute to the emerging literature of prevention science in general, and to school-based psychoeducational interventions in particular. The psychoeducational intervention reported in this study used a main effects prevention intervention model. The current study focused on promoting optimal cognitive and affective functioning. The goal of this intervention was to increase potential protective factors such as critical cognitive and communicative competencies (e.g., critical problem solving and decision making) and affective competencies (e.g., personal control and responsibility) in middle adolescents who have been identified by the school system as being at-risk for problem behaviors. The current psychoeducational intervention draws on an ongoing program of theory and research (Berman, Berman, Cass Lorente, Ferrer Wreder, Arrufat, & Kurtines 1996; Ferrer Wreder, 1996; Kurtines, Berman, Ittel, & Williamson, 1995) and extends it to include Freire's (1970) concept of transformative pedagogy in developing school-based psychoeducational programs that target troubled adolescents. The results of the quantitative and qualitative analyses indicated trends that were generally encouraging with respect to the effects of the intervention on increasing critical cognitive and affective competencies. ^

The knowledge and use of critical thinking teaching strategies of faculty in associate degree nursing education programs

The purpose of this study was to determine the knowledge and use of critical thinking teaching strategies by full-time and part-time faculty in Associate Degree Nursing (ADN) programs. ^ Sanders CTI (1992) instrument was adapted for this study and pilot-tested prior to the general administration to ADN faculty in Southeast Florida. This modified instrument, now termed the Burroughs Teaching Strategy Inventory (BTSI), returned reliability estimates (Cronbach alphas of .71, .74, and .82 for the three constructs) comparable to the original instrument. The BTSI was administered to 113 full-time and part-time nursing faculty in three community college nursing programs. The response rate was 92% for full-time faculty (n = 58) and 61% for part-time faculty (n = 55). ^ The majority of participants supported a combined definition of critical thinking in nursing which represented a composite of thinking skills that included reflective thinking, assessing alternative viewpoints, and the use of problem-solving. Full-time and part-time faculty used different teaching strategies. Full-time faculty most often used multiple-choice exams and lecture while part-time faculty most frequently used discussion within their classes. One possible explanation for specific strategy choices and differences might be that full-time faculty taught predominately in theory classes where certain strategies would be more appropriate and part-time faculty taught predominately clinical classes. Both faculty types selected written nursing care plans as the second most effective critical thinking strategy. ^ Faculty identified several strategies as being effective in teaching critical thinking. These strategies included discussion, case studies, higher order questioning, and concept analysis. These however, were not always the strategies that were used in either the classroom or clinical setting. ^ Based on this study, the author recommends that if the profession continues to stress critical thinking as a vital component of practice, nursing faculty should receive education in appropriate critical teaching strategies. Both in-service seminars and workshops could be used to further the knowledge and use of critical thinking strategies by faculty. Qualitative research should be done to determine why nursing faculty use self-selected teaching strategies. ^

The theory of margin as a predictor of success on the National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses

The National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN) is the examination that all graduates of nursing education programs must pass to attain the title of registered nurse. Currently the NCLEX-RN passing rate is at an all-time low (81%) for first-time test takers (NCSBN, 2004); amidst a nationwide shortage of registered nurses (Glabman, 2001). Because of the critical need to supply greater numbers of professional nurses, and the potential accreditation ramifications that low NCLEX-RN passing rates can have on schools of nursing and graduates, this research study tests the effectiveness of a predictor model. This model is based upon the theoretical framework of McClusky's (1959) theory of margin (ToM), with the hope that students found to be at-risk for NCLEX-RN failure can be identified and remediated prior to taking the actual licensure examination. To date no theory based predictor model has been identified that predicts success on the NCLEX-RN. ^ The model was tested using prerequisite course grades, nursing course grades and scores on standardized examinations for the 2003 associate degree nursing graduates at a urban community college (N = 235). Success was determined through the reporting of pass on the NCLEX-RN examination by the Florida Board of Nursing. Point biserial correlations tested model assumptions regarding variable relationships, while logistic regression was used to test the model's predictive power. ^ Correlations among variables were significant and the model accounted for 66% of variance in graduates' success on the NCLEX-RN with 98% prediction accuracy. Although certain prerequisite course grades and nursing course grades were found to be significant to NCLEX-RN success, the overall model was found to be most predictive at the conclusion of the academic program of study. The inclusion of the RN Assessment Examination, taken during the final semester of course work, was the most significant predictor of NCLEX-RN success. Success on the NCLEX-RN allows graduates to work as registered nurses, reflects positively on a school's academic performance record, and supports the appropriateness of the educational program's goals and objectives. The study's findings support potential other uses of McClusky's theory of margin as a predictor of program outcome in other venues of adult education. ^

Social network structure as a critical success condition for open source software project communities

In recent years, a surprising new phenomenon has emerged in which globally-distributed online communities collaborate to create useful and sophisticated computer software. These open source software groups are comprised of generally unaffiliated individuals and organizations who work in a seemingly chaotic fashion and who participate on a voluntary basis without direct financial incentive. ^ The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the social network structure of these intriguing groups and their level of output and activity, where social network structure is defined as (1) closure or connectedness within the group, (2) bridging ties which extend outside of the group, and (3) leader centrality within the group. Based on well-tested theories of social capital and centrality in teams, propositions were formulated which suggest that social network structures associated with successful open source software project communities will exhibit high levels of bridging and moderate levels of closure and leader centrality. ^ The research setting was the SourceForge hosting organization and a study population of 143 project communities was identified. Independent variables included measures of closure and leader centrality defined over conversational ties, along with measures of bridging defined over membership ties. Dependent variables included source code commits and software releases for community output, and software downloads and project site page views for community activity. A cross-sectional study design was used and archival data were extracted and aggregated for the two-year period following the first release of project software. The resulting compiled variables were analyzed using multiple linear and quadratic regressions, controlling for group size and conversational volume. ^ Contrary to theory-based expectations, the surprising results showed that successful project groups exhibited low levels of closure and that the levels of bridging and leader centrality were not important factors of success. These findings suggest that the creation and use of open source software may represent a fundamentally new socio-technical development process which disrupts the team paradigm and which triggers the need for building new theories of collaborative development. These new theories could point towards the broader application of open source methods for the creation of knowledge-based products other than software. ^

The relationship between classroom interactions and exclusionary discipline as a social practice: A critical microethnograhy

Exclusionary school discipline results in students being removed from classrooms as a consequence of their disruptive behavior and may lead to subsequent suspension and/or expulsion. Literature documents that nondominant students, particularly Black males, are disproportionately impacted by exclusionary discipline, to the point that researchers from a variety of critical perspectives consider exclusionary school discipline an oppressive educational practice and condition. Little or no research examines specific teacher-student social interactions within classrooms that influence teachers’ decisions to use or not use exclusionary discipline. Therefore, this study set forth the central research question: In relation to classroom interactions in alternative education settings, what accounts for teachers’ use or non-use of exclusionary discipline with students? A critical social practice theory of learning served as the framework for exploring this question, and a critical microethnographic methodology informed the data collection and analysis. ^ Criterion sampling was used to select four classrooms in the same alternative education school with two teachers who frequently and two who rarely used exclusionary discipline. Nine stages of data collection and reconstructive data analysis were conducted. Data collection involved video recorded classroom observations, digitally recorded interviews of teachers and students discussing selected video segments, and individual teacher interviews. Reconstructive data analysis procedures involved hermeneutic inferencing of possible underlying meanings, critical discourse analysis, interactive power analysis and role analysis, thematic analysis of the interactions in each classroom, and a final comparative analysis of the four classrooms. ^ Four predominant themes of social interaction (resistance, conformism, accommodation, and negotiation) emerged with terminology adapted from Giroux’s (2001) theory of resistance in education and Third Space theory (Gutiérrez, 2008). Four types of power (normative, coercive, interactively established contracts, and charm), based on Carspecken’s (1996) typology, were found in the interactions between teacher and students in varying degrees for different purposes. ^ This research contributes to the knowledge base on teacher-student classroom interactions, specifically in relation to exclusionary discipline. Understanding how the themes and varying power relations influence their decisions and actions may enable teachers to reduce use of exclusionary discipline and remain focused on positive teacher-student academic interactions. ^

Navigating racial boundaries: The one-drop rule and mixed-race Jamaicans in South Florida

Like many West Indians, mixed-race Jamaican immigrants enter the United States with fluid notions about race and racial identifications that reflect socio-political events in their home country and that conflict with the more rigid constructions of race they encounter in the U.S. This dissertation explores the experiences of racially mixed Jamaicans in South Florida and the impact of those experiences on their racial self-characterizations through the boundary-work theoretical framework. Specifically, the study examines the impact of participants’ exposure to the one-drop rule in the U.S., by which racial identification has been historically determined by the existence or non-existence of black forebears. Employing qualitative data collected through both focus group and face-to-face semi-structured interviews, the study analyzes mixed-race Jamaicans’ encounters in the U.S. with racial boundaries, and the boundary-work that reinforces them, as well their response to these encounters. Through their stories, the dissertation examines participants’ efforts to navigate racial boundaries through choices of various racial identifications. Further, it discusses the ways in which structural forces and individual agency have interacted in the formation of these identifications. The study finds that in spite of participants’ expressed preference for non-racialism, and despite their objections to rigid racial categories, in seeking to carve out alternative identities, they are participating in the boundary-making of which they are so critical.^

Self-determination theory and student motivation in social studies in an urban Broward County public high school

This study investigated how students perceived their motivation in high school social studies classes in school and to determine if a correlation exists between students’ grade level, race, gender, and their motivation. The sample included 337 high school students in Broward County, Florida. To assess students’ perceptions on their motivation the academic self-regulation questionnaire was utilized. Results indicate that social studies students show high levels of external regulation, with a mean score at 22.31 on a scale of 36 points. The results show a mean score of 24 on a scale of 28 points for identified regulation among social studies students. Findings revealed that student motivation could be gauged. No statistical significance was found between high school students’ grade level, race, gender, and their motivation in social studies classes. The findings of this study have shown that students at Boyd H. Anderson High School want to learn social studies.

Racioethnic differences in job satisfaction: A test of orthogonal cultural identification theory and self -categorization theory

The theories of orthogonal cultural identification and self-categorization are offered as links in examining the possible racioethnic differences in job satisfaction. It is posited that racioethnicity (Cox & Blake, 1991) is multidimensional with at least three conceptually distinct dimensions. Since there is a need for consistent terminology with respect to these distinct dimensions, the following new terms are offered to differentiate among them: "physioethnicity" refers to the physiological dimension of racioethnicity; "socioethnicity" refers to the sociocultural dimension; and "psychoethnicity" refers to the psychological dimension.^ Results showed that for the dominant group (Hispanics in this case) (1) bicultural and multicultural individuals were more satisfied with coworkers than acultural and monocultural individuals and (2) individuals with higher strength of psychoethnicity were more satisfied with coworkers, the work itself, and supervision than those with lower strength of psychoethnicity. The findings suggest racioethnic differences within the dominant group and between groups beyond race. ^

When Poverty Becomes Profitable: A Critical Discourse Analysis of Microfinancial Development in Haiti

For the past thirty years, policymakers have lauded microfinance for its promises to reduce poverty and empower women in developing nations. First conceived by the Bangladeshi economist Muhammed Yunus and the bank he founded, microfinance has been hailed as a visionary project that promises to advance the economic interests of the poor by engaging them directly. Conventional studies by political scientists explore the place of microfinance in the global development architecture of international financial institutions, governments, and NGOs. Economic studies of its effectiveness are contributing to a crisis of legitimacy since they reveal that thousands of clients in developing nations continue to default on their loans due to predatory lending practices. Drawing on discourse analysis methodology, this article seeks to explain how microfinance, an industry embedded in the financialization of development, is now concerned with high financial returns for investments, not the social goals promised by its original raison d'être. Treating microfinance as a discourse, I argue that there is a fundamental tension between the short-term social goals promised by microfinance and the long-term financial objectives of sustainability of investors.

A visual critical ethnography of youth develoment in a Rio de Janeiro favela

Favelas are Brazilian informal housing settlements that are areas of concentrated poverty. In Rio de Janeiro, favelas are perceived as areas of heightened criminal activity and violence, and residents experience discrimination, and little access to quality education and employment opportunities. In this context, hundreds of non-formal educational arts and leisure programs work to build the self-esteem and identity of youth in Rio's favelas as a way of preventing the youth from negative local influences. The Morrinho organization, located in the Pereira da Silva favela in Rio, uses art as a way for the local male youth to communicate their lived reality. This study used a visual critical ethnographic methodology to describe the way in which the Morrinho participants interpret living in a favela. Seventeen semi-structured interviews with young men aged 15 to 29, the feature-length documentary film on the organization, 206 researcher produced documentary style photographs of the Morrinho artwork, and the researcher's field notes were analyzed. Truth claims, ways of seeing as communicated through words and actions, were induced through a cyclical process of reconstructive horizon analysis that incorporated the societal context and critical theory. The participants communicated their concerns about life in a favela; however, they did not describe their societal positions in terms of complete marginalization. They named multiple benefits of living in Pereira da Silva, discussed positive and negative experiences in school, and described ways they circumvented discrimination. Morrinho as an organization was described as an enthralling game and a social project that benefited dozens of local youth. Character development was a valuable result of participation at Morrinho. The Morrinho artwork communicates a nuanced vision of both benevolent and violent social actors, and counters the overwhelmingly negative dominant characterization of Rio de Janeiro's favelas. This study has implications for an inclusive critical pedagogy and the use of art as a means to facilitate a transformative education. Further research is recommended to explore terminology used to refer to favelas, and perceptions that favela residents have of their experiences in public education.