Virtual-Build-to-Order as a Mass Customization Order Fulfilment Model

Virtual-build-to-order (VBTO) is a form of order fulfilment system in which the producer has the ability to search across the entire pipeline of finished stock, products in production and those in the production plan, in order to find the best product for a customer. It is a system design that is attractive to Mass Customizers, such as those in the automotive sector, whose manufacturing lead time exceeds their customers' tolerable waiting times, and for whom the holding of partly-finished stocks at a fixed decoupling point is unattractive or unworkable. This paper describes and develops the operational concepts that underpin VBTO, in particular the concepts of reconfiguration flexibility and customer aversion to waiting. Reconfiguration is the process of changing a product's specification at any point along the order fulfilment pipeline. The extent to which an order fulfilment system is flexible or inflexible reveals itself in the reconfiguration cost curve, of which there are four basic types. The operational features of the generic VBTO system are described and simulation is used to study its behaviour and performance. The concepts of reconfiguration flexibility and floating decoupling point are introduced and discussed.

Development of a global IT charging model for BASF Group

With ‘GS Strategy 2025’ BASF Business Services GmbH was formed to centrally steer all IT related topics of BASF group. Thus, a global charging system has to be designed, which complies to international transfer price regulations and the strategy of BASF SE. This work project develops a charging system with a following evaluation. The direct charging system benefits from its cost transparency upsides but comes with a higher administrative effort due to volume-based charging. In contrast, the indirect charging system convinces because of easy handling, which is the result of the application of suitable allocation keys. Regarding the complex group structure of BASF SE with more than 300 legal entities in 80 countries, the lower administrative effort of the indirect charging system outweighs the benefits of the direct charging model and should be used by BASF group.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of apixaban compared to low-molecular-weight heparins and vitamin k antagonists for treatment and secondary prevention of venous thromboembolism

Objective: Cost-effectiveness analysis of a 6-month treatment of apixaban (10 mg/12h, first 7 days; 5 mg/12h afterwards) for the treatment of the first event of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and prevention of recurrences, versus low-molecular-weight heparins/vitamin K antagonists treatment (LMWH/VKA). Material and methods: A lifetime Markov model with 13 health states was used for describing the course of the disease. Efficacy and safety data were obtained from AMPLIFY and AMPLIFY-EXT clinical trials; health outcomes were measured as life years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). The chosen perspective of this analysis has been the Spanish National Health System (NHS). Drugs, management of VTE and complications costs were obtained from several Spanish data sources (€, 2014). A 3% discount rate was applied to health outcomes and costs. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (SA) were performed in order to assess the robustness of the results. Results: Apixaban was the most effective therapy with 7.182 LYG and 5.865 QALY, versus 7.160 LYG and 5.838 QALYs with LMWH/VKA. Furthermore, apixaban had a lower total cost (€13,374.70 vs €13,738.30). Probabilistic SA confirmed dominance of apixaban (led to better health outcomes with less associated costs) in 89% of the simulations. Conclusions: Apixaban 5 mg/12h versus LMWH/VKA was an efficient therapeutic strategy for the treatment and prevention of recurrences of VTE from the NHS perspective.

Evidence that risk adjustment is unnecessary in estimates of the User cost of money

Investors value the special attributes of monetary assets (e.g., exchangeability, liquidity, and safety) and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate -- The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the returns on illiquid risky assets and those of safer liquid assets -- A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the differential risk of the assets in question -- We investigate the impact that time non-separable preferences has on the estimation of the risk-adjusted user cost of money -- Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model with money in the utility function and find that the risk adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible -- Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the user cost of money in constructing monetary aggregate indexes

An expert model approach to assess the potential of non-wood forest products for forest owners

Mestrado em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Naturais - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Cost-Effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination for Under-Five Children in Iran

Background: Rotavirus diarrhea is one of the most important causes of death among under-five children. Anti-rotavirus vaccination of these children may have a reducing effect on the disease. Objectives: this study is intended to contribute to health policy-makers of the country about the optimal decision and policy development in this area, by performing cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis on anti-rotavirus vaccination for under-5 children. Patients and Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a decision tree model to analyze rotavirus vaccination, which was compared with no vaccination with Iran’s ministry of health perspective in a 5-year time horizon. Epidemiological data were collected from published and unpublished sources. Four different assumptions were considered to the extent of the disease episode. To analyze costs, the costs of implementing the vaccination program were calculated with 98% coverage and the cost of USD 7 per dose. Medical and social costs of the disease were evaluated by sampling patients with rotavirus diarrhea, and sensitivity analysis was also performed for different episode rates and vaccine price per dose. Results: For the most optimistic assumption for the episode of illness (10.2 per year), the cost per DALY averted is 12,760 and 7,404 for RotaTeq and Rotarix vaccines, respectively, while assuming the episode of illness is 300%, they will be equal to 2,395 and 354, respectively, which will be highly cost-effective. Number of life-years gained is equal to 3,533 years. Conclusions: Assuming that the illness episodes are 100% and 300% for Rotarix and 300% for Rota Teq, the ratio of cost per DALY averted is highly cost-effective, based on the threshold of the world health organization (< 1 GDP per capita = 4526 USD). The implementation of a national rotavirus vaccination program is suggested.

In vitro-in vivo Pharmacokinetic correlation model for quality assurance of antiretroviral drugs

Introduction: The In vitro-in vivo pharmacokinetic correlation models (IVIVC) are a fundamental part of the drug discovery and development process. The ability to accurately predict the in vivo pharmacokinetic profile of a drug based on in vitro observations can have several applications during a successful development process. Objective: To develop a comprehensive model to predict the in vivo absorption of antiretroviral drugs based on permeability studies, in vitro and in vivo solubility and demonstrate its correlation with the pharmacokinetic profile in humans. Methods: Analytical tools to test the biopharmaceutical properties of stavudine, lamivudine y zidovudine were developed. The kinetics of dissolution, permeability in caco-2 cells and pharmacokinetics of absorption in rabbits and healthy volunteers were evaluated. Results: The cumulative areas under the curve (AUC) obtained in the permeability study with Caco-2 cells, the dissolution study and the pharmacokinetics in rabbits correlated with the cumulative AUC values in humans. These results demonstrated a direct relation between in vitro data and absorption, both in humans and in the in vivo model. Conclusions: The analytical methods and procedures applied to the development of an IVIVC model showed a strong correlation among themselves. These IVIVC models are proposed as alternative and cost/effective methods to evaluate the biopharmaceutical properties that determine the bioavailability of a drug and their application includes the development process, quality assurance, bioequivalence studies and pharmacosurveillance.

Development of a 1-D Catalyzed Diesel Particulate Filter Model for Simulation of the Performance and the Oxidation of Particulate Matter and Nitrogen Oxides Using Passive Oxidation and Active Regeneration Engine Experimental Data

Back-pressure on a diesel engine equipped with an aftertreatment system is a function of the pressure drop across the individual components of the aftertreatment system, typically, a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), catalyzed particulate filter (CPF) and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) catalyst. Pressure drop across the CPF is a function of the mass flow rate and the temperature of the exhaust flowing through it as well as the mass of particulate matter (PM) retained in the substrate wall and the cake layer that forms on the substrate wall. Therefore, in order to control the back-pressure on the engine at low levels and to minimize the fuel consumption, it is important to control the PM mass retained in the CPF. Chemical reactions involving the oxidation of PM under passive oxidation and active regeneration conditions can be utilized with computer numerical models in the engine control unit (ECU) to control the pressure drop across the CPF. Hence, understanding and predicting the filtration and oxidation of PM in the CPF and the effect of these processes on the pressure drop across the CPF are necessary for developing control strategies for the aftertreatment system to reduce back-pressure on the engine and in turn fuel consumption particularly from active regeneration. Numerical modeling of CPF's has been proven to reduce development time and the cost of aftertreatment systems used in production as well as to facilitate understanding of the internal processes occurring during different operating conditions that the particulate filter is subjected to. A numerical model of the CPF was developed in this research work which was calibrated to data from passive oxidation and active regeneration experiments in order to determine the kinetic parameters for oxidation of PM and nitrogen oxides along with the model filtration parameters. The research results include the comparison between the model and the experimental data for pressure drop, PM mass retained, filtration efficiencies, CPF outlet gas temperatures and species (NO2) concentrations out of the CPF. Comparisons of PM oxidation reaction rates obtained from the model calibration to the data from the experiments for ULSD, 10 and 20% biodiesel-blended fuels are presented.

A Cost Analysis Of Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Strategies For New Plants In Michigan's Electric Power Sector

This thesis attempts to find the least-cost strategy to reduce CO2 emission by replacing coal by other energy sources for electricity generation in the context of the proposed EPA’s regulation on CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants. An ARIMA model is built to forecast coal consumption for electricity generation and its CO2 emissions in Michigan from 2016 to 2020. CO2 emission reduction costs are calculated under three emission reduction scenarios- reduction to 17%, 30% and 50% below the 2005 emission level. The impacts of Production Tax Credit (PTC) and the intermittency of renewable energy are also discussed. The results indicate that in most cases natural gas will be the best alternative to coal for electricity generation to realize CO2 reduction goals; if the PTC for wind power will continue after 2015, a natural gas and wind combination approach could be the best strategy based on the least-cost criterion.

Developing an Enhanced Model for Combined Heat and Air Infiltration Energy Simulation

The need for efficient, sustainable, and planned utilization of resources is ever more critical. In the U.S. alone, buildings consume 34.8 Quadrillion (1015) BTU of energy annually at a cost of $1.4 Trillion. Of this energy 58% is utilized for heating and air conditioning. Several building energy analysis tools have been developed to assess energy demands and lifecycle energy costs in buildings. Such analyses are also essential for an efficient HVAC design that overcomes the pitfalls of an under/over-designed system. DOE-2 is among the most widely known full building energy analysis models. It also constitutes the simulation engine of other prominent software such as eQUEST, EnergyPro, PowerDOE. Therefore, it is essential that DOE-2 energy simulations be characterized by high accuracy. Infiltration is an uncontrolled process through which outside air leaks into a building. Studies have estimated infiltration to account for up to 50% of a building’s energy demand. This, considered alongside the annual cost of buildings energy consumption, reveals the costs of air infiltration. It also stresses the need that prominent building energy simulation engines accurately account for its impact. In this research the relative accuracy of current air infiltration calculation methods is evaluated against an intricate Multiphysics Hygrothermal CFD building envelope analysis. The full-scale CFD analysis is based on a meticulous representation of cracking in building envelopes and on real-life conditions. The research found that even the most advanced current infiltration methods, including in DOE-2, are at up to 96.13% relative error versus CFD analysis. An Enhanced Model for Combined Heat and Air Infiltration Simulation was developed. The model resulted in 91.6% improvement in relative accuracy over current models. It reduces error versus CFD analysis to less than 4.5% while requiring less than 1% of the time required for such a complex hygrothermal analysis. The algorithm used in our model was demonstrated to be easy to integrate into DOE-2 and other engines as a standalone method for evaluating infiltration heat loads. This will vastly increase the accuracy of such simulation engines while maintaining their speed and ease of use characteristics that make them very widely used in building design.

Resource endowment and opportunity cost effects along the stages of entrepreneurship

In this paper, the start-up process is split conceptually into four stages: considering entrepreneurship, intending to start a new business in the next 3 years, nascent entrepreneurship and owning-managing a newly established business. We investigate the determinants of all of these jointly, using a multinomial logit model; it allows for the effects of resources and capabilities to vary across these stages. We employ the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor database for the years 2006–2009, containing 8269 usable observations from respondents drawn from the Lower Layer Super Output Areas in the East Midlands (UK) so that individual observations are linked to space. Our results show that the role of education, experience, and availability of ‘entrepreneurial capital’ in the local neighbourhood varies along the different stages of the entrepreneurial process. In the early stages, the negative (opportunity cost) effect of resources endowment dominates, yet it tends to reverse in the advanced stages, where the positive effect of resources becomes stronger.

Public health implications of dietary fiber intake to reduce the cost of chronic diseases

Objective: To assess the epidemiological evidence on dietary fiber intake and chronic diseases and make public health recommendations for the population in Romania based on their consumption. Populations that consume more dietary fiber from cereals, fruits and vegetables have less chronic disease. Dietary Reference Intakes recommend consumption of 14 g dietary fiber per 1,000 kcal, or 25 g for adult women and 38 g for adult men, based on epidemiologic studies showing protection against cardiovascular disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, metabolic syndrome, gastrointestinal disorders, colorectal -, breast -, gastric -, endometrial -, ovarian - and prostate cancer. Furthermore, increased consumption of dietary fiber improves serum lipid concentrations, lowers blood pressure, blood glucose leads to low glycemic index, aids in weight loss, improve immune function, reduce inflammatory marker levels, reduce indicators of inflammation. Dietary fibers contain an unique blend of bioactive components including resistant starches, vitamins, minerals, phytochemicals and antioxidants. Dietary fiber components have important physiological effects on glucose, lipid, protein metabolism and mineral bioavailability needed to prevent chronic diseases. Materials and methods: Data regarding diet was collected based on questionnaires. We used mathematical formulas to calculate the mean dietary fiber intake of Romanian adult population and compared the results with international public health recommendations. Results: Based on the intakes of vegetables, fruits and whole cereals we calculated the Mean Dietary Fiber Intake/day/person (MDFI). Our research shows that the national average MDFI was 9.8 g fiber/day/person, meaning 38% of Dietary Requirements, and the rest of 62% representing a “fiber gap” that we have to take into account. This deficiency predisposes to chronic diseases. Conclusions and recommendations:The poor control of relationship between dietary fiber intake and chronic diseases is a major issue that can result in adverse clinical and economic outcomes. The population in Romania is at risk to develop such diseases due to the deficient fiber consumption. A model of chronic diseases costs is needed to aid attempts to reduce them while permitting optimal management of the chronic diseases. This paper presents a discussion of the burden of chronical disease and its socio-economic implications and proposes a model to predict the costs reduction by adequate intake of dietary fiber.

Climate Change Adaptation Case Study: Benefit-Cost Analysis of Coastal Flooding Hazard Mitigation

The damage Hurricane Sandy caused had far-reaching repercussions up and down the East Coast of the United States. Vast coastal flooding accompanied the storm, inundating homes, businesses, and utility and emergency facilities. Since the storm, projects to mitigate similar future floods have been scrutinized. Such projects not only need to keep out floodwaters but also be designed to withstand the effect that climate change might have on rising sea levels and increased flood risk. In this study, we develop an economic model to assess the costs and benefits of a berm (sea wall) to mitigate the effects of flooding from a large storm. We account for the lifecycle costs of the project, which include those for the upfront construction of the berm, ongoing maintenance, land acquisition, and wetland and recreation zone construction. Benefits of the project include avoided fatalities, avoided residential and commercial damages, avoided utility and municipal damages, recreational and health benefits, avoided debris removal expenses, and avoided loss of function of key transportation and commercial infrastructure located in the area. Our estimate of the beneficial effects of the berm includes ecosystem services from wetlands and health benefits to the surrounding community from a park and nature system constructed along the berm. To account for the effects of climate change and verify that the project will maintain its effectiveness over the long term, we allow the risk of flooding to increase over time. Over our 50-year time horizon, we double the risk of 100- and 500-year flood events to account for the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding. Based on the economic analysis, the project is highly cost beneficial over its 50-year timeframe. This analysis demonstrates that climate change adaptation investments can be cost beneficial even though they mitigate the impacts of low-probability, high-consequence events.

Eulerian-Lagrangian definition of coarse bed-load transport: Theory and verification with low-cost inertial measurement units

Fluvial sediment transport is controlled by hydraulics, sediment properties and arrangement, and flow history across a range of time scales. This physical complexity has led to ambiguous definition of the reference frame (Lagrangian or Eulerian) in which sediment transport is analysed. A general Eulerian-Lagrangian approach accounts for inertial characteristics of particles in a Lagrangian (particle fixed) frame, and for the hydrodynamics in an independent Eulerian frame. The necessary Eulerian-Lagrangian transformations are simplified under the assumption of an ideal Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), rigidly attached at the centre of the mass of a sediment particle. Real, commercially available IMU sensors can provide high frequency data on accelerations and angular velocities (hence forces and energy) experienced by grains during entrainment and motion, if adequately customized. IMUs are subjected to significant error accu- mulation but they can be used for statistical parametrisation of an Eulerian-Lagrangian model, for coarse sediment particles and over the temporal scale of individual entrainment events. In this thesis an Eulerian-Lagrangian model is introduced and evaluated experimentally. Absolute inertial accelerations were recorded at a 4 Hz frequency from a spherical instrumented particle (111 mm diameter and 2383 kg/m3 density) in a series of entrainment threshold experiments on a fixed idealised bed. The grain-top inertial acceleration entrainment threshold was approximated at 44 and 51 mg for slopes 0.026 and 0.037 respectively. The saddle inertial acceleration entrainment threshold was at 32 and 25 mg for slopes 0.044 and 0.057 respectively. For the evaluation of the complete Eulerian-Lagrangian model two prototype sensors are presented: an idealised (spherical) with a diameter of 90 mm and an ellipsoidal with axes 100, 70 and 30 mm. Both are instrumented with a complete IMU, capable of sampling 3D inertial accelerations and 3D angular velocities at 50 Hz. After signal analysis, the results can be used to parametrize sediment movement but they do not contain positional information. The two sensors (spherical and ellipsoidal) were tested in a series of entrainment experiments, similar to the evaluation of the 111 mm prototype, for a slope of 0.02. The spherical sensor entrained at discharges of 24.8 ± 1.8 l/s while the same threshold for the ellipsoidal sensor was 45.2 ± 2.2 l/s. Kinetic energy calculations were used to quantify the particle-bed energy exchange under fluvial (discharge at 30 l/s) and non-fluvial conditions. All the experiments suggest that the effect of the inertial characteristics of coarse sediments on their motion is comparable to the effect hydrodynamic forces. The coupling of IMU sensors with advanced telemetric systems can lead to the tracking of Lagrangian particle trajectories, at a frequency and accuracy that will permit the testing of diffusion/dispersion models across the range of particle diameters.

Virtual Calibration of CO2 and Pollutant Emissions of a High-Performance PHEV using Model-in-the-Loop Methodology

The study analyses the calibration process of a newly developed high-performance plug-in hybrid electric passenger car powertrain. The complexity of modern powertrains and the more and more restrictive regulations regarding pollutant emissions are the primary challenges for the calibration of a vehicle’s powertrain. In addition, the managers of OEM need to know as earlier as possible if the vehicle under development will meet the target technical features (emission included). This leads to the necessity for advanced calibration methodologies, in order to keep the development of the powertrain robust, time and cost effective. The suggested solution is the virtual calibration, that allows the tuning of control functions of a powertrain before having it built. The aim of this study is to calibrate virtually the hybrid control unit functions in order to optimize the pollutant emissions and the fuel consumption. Starting from the model of the conventional vehicle, the powertrain is then hybridized and integrated with emissions and aftertreatments models. After its validation, the hybrid control unit strategies are optimized using the Model-in-the-Loop testing methodology. The calibration activities will proceed thanks to the implementation of a Hardware-in-the-Loop environment, that will allow to test and calibrate the Engine and Transmission control units effectively, besides in a time and cost saving manner.