Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot.

Predicting magnetospheric dynamics with a coupled sun-to-Earth model: challenges and first results

Results from the first Sun-to-Earth coupled numerical model developed at the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling are presented. The model simulates physical processes occurring in space spanning from the corona of the Sun to the Earth's ionosphere, and it represents the first step toward creating a physics-based numerical tool for predicting space weather conditions in the near-Earth environment. Two 6- to 7-d intervals, representing different heliospheric conditions in terms of the three-dimensional configuration of the heliospheric current sheet, are chosen for simulations. These conditions lead to drastically different responses of the simulated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, emphasizing, on the one hand, challenges one encounters in building such forecasting tools, and on the other hand, emphasizing successes that can already be achieved even at this initial stage of Sun-to-Earth modeling.

A kinematically distorted flux rope model for magnetic clouds

Constant-α force-free magnetic flux rope models have proven to be a valuable first step toward understanding the global context of in situ observations of magnetic clouds. However, cylindrical symmetry is necessarily assumed when using such models, and it is apparent from both observations and modeling that magnetic clouds have highly noncircular cross sections. A number of approaches have been adopted to relax the circular cross section approximation: frequently, the cross-sectional shape is allowed to take an arbitrarily chosen shape (usually elliptical), increasing the number of free parameters that are fit between data and model. While a better “fit” may be achieved in terms of reducing the mean square error between the model and observed magnetic field time series, it is not always clear that this translates to a more accurate reconstruction of the global structure of the magnetic cloud. We develop a new, noncircular cross section flux rope model that is constrained by observations of CMEs/ICMEs and knowledge of the physical processes acting on the magnetic cloud: The magnetic cloud is assumed to initially take the form of a force-free flux rope in the low corona but to be subsequently deformed by a combination of axis-centered self-expansion and heliocentric radial expansion. The resulting analytical solution is validated by fitting to artificial time series produced by numerical MHD simulations of magnetic clouds and shown to accurately reproduce the global structure.

Characteristic magnetic field and speed properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and their sheath regions

Prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures, is essential for space weather forecasting. To achieve forecast lead times of a day or more, such predictions must be made on the basis of remote solar observations. A number of empirical prediction schemes have been proposed to forecast the transit time and speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at 1 AU. However, the current lack of magnetic field measurements in the corona severely limits our ability to forecast the 1 AU magnetic field strengths resulting from interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). In this study we investigate the relation between the characteristic magnetic field strengths and speeds of both magnetic cloud and noncloud ICMEs at 1 AU. Correlation between field and speed is found to be significant only in the sheath region ahead of magnetic clouds, not within the clouds themselves. The lack of such a relation in the sheaths ahead of noncloud ICMEs is consistent with such ICMEs being skimming encounters of magnetic clouds, though other explanations are also put forward. Linear fits to the radial speed profiles of ejecta reveal that faster-traveling ICMEs are also expanding more at 1 AU. We combine these empirical relations to form a prediction scheme for the magnetic field strength in the sheaths ahead of magnetic clouds and also suggest a method for predicting the radial speed profile through an ICME on the basis of upstream measurements.

Intermittent release of transients in the slow solar wind: 1. Remote sensing observations

The Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments on board the STEREO spacecraft are used to analyze the solar wind during August and September 2007. We show how HI can be used to image the streamer belt and, in particular, the variability of the slow solar wind which originates inside and in the vicinity of the streamer belt. Intermittent mass flows are observed in HI difference images, streaming out along the extension of helmet streamers. These flows can appear very differently in images: plasma distributed on twisted flux ropes, V‐shaped structures, or “blobs.” The variety of these transient features may highlight the richness of phenomena that could occur near helmet streamers: emergence of flux ropes, reconnection of magnetic field lines at the tip of helmet streamers, or disconnection of open magnetic field lines. The plasma released with these transient events forms part of the solar wind in the higher corona; HI observations show that these transients are frequently entrained by corotating interaction regions (CIRs), leading to the formation of larger, brighter plasma structures in HI images. This entrainment is used to estimate the trajectory of these plasma ejecta. In doing so, we demonstrate that successive transients can be entrained by the same CIR in the high corona if they emanate from the same corotating source. Some parts of the streamers are more effective sources of transients than others. Surprisingly, evidence is given for the outflow of a recurring twisted magnetic structure, suggesting that the emergence of flux ropes can be recurrent.

Numerical simulation of the 12 May 1997 CME Event: The role of magnetic reconnection

We perform a numerical study of the evolution of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and its interaction with the coronal magnetic field based on the 12 May 1997, CME event using a global MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) model for the solar corona. The ambient solar wind steady-state solution is driven by photospheric magnetic field data, while the solar eruption is obtained by superimposing an unstable flux rope onto the steady-state solution. During the initial stage of CME expansion, the core flux rope reconnects with the neighboring field, which facilitates lateral expansion of the CME footprint in the low corona. The flux rope field also reconnects with the oppositely orientated overlying magnetic field in the manner of the breakout model. During this stage of the eruption, the simulated CME rotates counter-clockwise to achieve an orientation that is in agreement with the interplanetary flux rope observed at 1 AU. A significant component of the CME that expands into interplanetary space comprises one of the side lobes created mainly as a result of reconnection with the overlying field. Within 3 hours, reconnection effectively modifies the CME connectivity from the initial condition where both footpoints are rooted in the active region to a situation where one footpoint is displaced into the quiet Sun, at a significant distance (≈1R ) from the original source region. The expansion and rotation due to interaction with the overlying magnetic field stops when the CME reaches the outer edge of the helmet streamer belt, where the field is organized on a global scale. The simulation thus offers a new view of the role reconnection plays in rotating a CME flux rope and transporting its footpoints while preserving its core structure.

Structure and rheology of aqueous micellar solutions and gels formed from an associative poly(oxybutylene)-poly(oxyethylene)-poly(oxybutylene) triblock copolymer

The structure and shear flow behaviour of aqueous micellar solutions and gels formed by an amphiphilic poly(oxybutylene)-poly(oxyethylene)-poly(oxybutylene) triblock copolymer with a lengthy hydrophilic poly(oxyethylene) block has been investigated by rheology, small angle neutron scattering (SANS) and small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). SANS revealed that bridging of chains between micelles introduces, in the micellar solution, an attractive long-range component which can be described through a potential of interaction corresponding to sticky soft spheres. The strength of the attractive interaction increases with increasing concentration. Rheology showed that the dependence of the storage modulus with temperature can be explained as a function of the micellar bridging, micellisation and phase morphology. SAXS studies showed that the orientation adopted by the system in the get phase under shear is similar to that previously observed by us for the gel phase of a poly(oxyethylene)-poly(oxybutylene) diblock copolymer with a long poly(oxyethylene) chain, suggesting that the micellar corona/core length ratio and not the architecture of the block copolymer influences the alignment of the gel phase under shear.

Wormlike micelle formation and flow alignment of a pluronic block copolymer in aqueous solution

The self-assembly into wormlike micelles of a poly(ethylene oxide)-b-poly(propylene oxide)-b-poly(ethylene oxide) triblock copolymer Pluronic P84 in aqueous salt solution (2 M NaCl) has been studied by rheology, small-angle X-ray and neutron scattering (SAXS/SANS), and light scattering. Measurements of the flow curves by controlled stress rheometry indicated phase separation under flow. SAXS on solutions subjected to capillary flow showed alignment of micelles at intermediate shear rates, although loss of alignment was observed for high shear rates. For dilute solutions, SAXS and static light scattering data on unaligned samples could be superposed over three decades in scattering vector, providing unique information on the wormlike micelle structure over several length scales. SANS data provided information on even shorter length scales, in particular, concerning "blob" scattering from the micelle corona. The data could be modeled based on a system of semiflexible self-avoiding cylinders with a circular cross-section, as described by the wormlike chain model with excluded volume interactions. The micelle structure was compared at two temperatures close to the cloud point (47 degrees C). The micellar radius was found not to vary with temperature in this region, although the contour length increased with increasing temperature, whereas the Kuhn length decreased. These variations result in an increase of the low-concentration radius of gyration with increasing temperature. This was consistent with dynamic light scattering results, and, applying theoretical results from the literature, this is in agreement with an increase in endcap energy due to changes in hydration of the poly(ethylene oxide) blocks as the temperature is increased.

Nematic and columnar ordering of a PEG-peptide conjugate in aqueous solution

The self-assembly in aqueous solution of a PEG-peptide conjugate is studied by spectroscopy, electron microscopy, rheology and small-angle Xray and neutron scattering (SAXS and SANS). The peptide fragment, FFKLVFF is based on fragment KLVFF of the amyloid beta-peptide, A beta(16-20), extended by two hydrophobic phenylalanine units. This is conjugated to PEG which confers water solubility and leads to distinct self-assembled structures. Small-angle scattering reveals the formation of cylindrical fibrils comprising a peptide core and PEG corona. This constrained structure leads to a model parallel beta-sheet self-assembled structure with a radial arrangement of beta sheets. Oil increasing concentration, successively nematic and hexagonal columnar phases are formed. The flow-induced alignment of both structures was studied in situ by SANS using a Couette cell. Shear-induced alignment is responsible for the shear thinning behaviour observed by dynamic shear rheometry. Incomplete recovery of moduli after cessation of shear is consistent with the observation from SANS of retained orientation in the sample.

Water-soluble, unimolecular containers based on amphiphilic multiarm star block copolymers

A new class of water-soluble, amphiphilic star block copolymers with a large number of arms was prepared by sequential atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) of n-butyl methacrylate (BMA) and poly( ethylene glycol) methyl ether methacrylate (PEGMA). As the macroinitiator for the ATRP, a 2-bromoisobutyric acid functionalized fourth-generation hyperbranched polyester (Boltorn H40) was used, which allowed the preparation of star polymers that contained on average 20 diblock copolymer arms. The synthetic concept was validated by AFM experiments, which allowed direct visualization of single molecules of the multiarm star block copolymers. DSC and SAXS experiments on bulk samples suggested a microphase-separated structure, in agreement with the core-shell architecture of the polymers. SAXS experiments on aqueous solutions indicated that the star block copolymers can be regarded as unimolecular micelles composed of a PBMA core and a diffuse PPEGMA corona. The ability of the polymers to encapsulate and release hydrophobic guests was evaluated using H-1 NMR spectroscopy. In dilute aqueous solution, these polymers act as unimolecular containers that can be loaded with up to 27 wt % hydrophobic guest molecules.

Structure, rheology and shear alignment of Pluronic block copolymer mixtures

The structure and flow behaviour of binary mixtures of Pluronic block copolymers P85 and P123 is investigated by small-angle scattering, rheometry and mobility tests. Micelle dimensions are probed by dynamic light scattering. The micelle hydrodynamic radius for the 50/50 mixture is larger than that for either P85 or P123 alone, Clue to the formation of mixed micelles with a higher association number. The phase diagram for 50/50 mixtures contains regions Of Cubic and hexagonal phases similar to those for the parent homopolymers, however the region of stability of the cubic phase is enhanced at low temperature and concentrations above 40 wt%. This is ascribed to favourable packing of the mixed micelles containing core blocks with two different chain lengths, but similar corona chain lengths. The shear flow alignment of face-centred cubic and hexagonal phases is probed by in situ small-angle X-ray or neutron scattering with simultaneous rheology. The hexagonal phase can be aligned using steady shear in a Couette geometry, however the high modulus Cubic phase cannot be aligned well in this way. This requires the application of oscillatory shear or compression. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Champagne wine polyphenols protect primary cortical neurons against peroxynitrite-induced injury

White wines are generally low in polyphenol content as compared to red wines. However, Champagne wines have been shown to contain relatively high amounts of phenolic acids that may exert protective cellular actions in vivo. In this study, we have investigated the potential neuroprotective effects of Champagne wine extracts, and individual phenolics present in these extracts, against peroxynitrite-induced injury. Organic and aqueous Champagne wine extracts exhibited potent neuroprotective activity against peroxynitrite-induced injury at low concentrations (0.1 mu g/mL). This protection appeared to be in part due to the cellular actions of individual components found in the organic extracts, notably tyrosol, caffeic acid, and gallic acid. These phenolics were observed to exert potent neuroprotection at concentrations between 0.1 and 10 mu M. Together, these data suggest that polyphenols present in Champagne wine may induce a neuroprotective effect against oxidative neuronal injury.

Moderate Champagne consumption promotes an acute improvement in acute endothelial-independent vascular function in healthy human volunteers

Epidemiological studies have suggested an inverse correlation between red wine consumption and the incidence of CVD. However, Champagne wine has not been fully investigated for its cardioprotective potential. In order to assess whether acute and moderate Champagne wine consumption is capable of modulating vascular function, we performed a randomised, placebo-controlled, cross-over intervention trial. We show that consumption of Champagne wine, but not a control matched for alcohol, carbohydrate and fruit-derived acid content, induced an acute change in endothelium-independent vasodilatation at 4 and 8 h post-consumption. Although both Champagne wine and the control also induced an increase in endothelium-dependent vascular reactivity at 4 h, there was no significant difference between the vascular effects induced by Champagne or the control at any time point. These effects were accompanied by an acute decrease in the concentration of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP-9), a significant decrease in plasma levels of oxidising species and an increase in urinary excretion of a number of phenolic metabolites. In particular, the mean total excretion of hippuric acid, protocatechuic acid and isoferulic acid were all significantly greater following the Champagne wine intervention compared with the control intervention. Our data suggest that a daily moderate consumption of Champagne wine may improve vascular performance via the delivery of phenolic constituents capable of improving NO bioavailability and reducing matrix metalloproteinase activity.

The fate of olive oil polyphenols in the gastrointestinal tract: implications of gastric and colonic microflora-dependent biotransformation

We have conducted a detailed investigation into the absorption, metabolism and microflora-dependent transformation of hydroxytyrosol ( HT), tyrosol (TYR) and their conjugated forms, such as oleuropein (OL). Conjugated forms underwent rapid hydrolysis under gastric conditions, resulting in significant increases in the amount of free HT and TYR entering the small intestine. Both HT and TYR transferred across human Caco-2 cell monolayers and rat segments of jejunum and ileum and were subject to classic phase I/II biotransformation. The major metabolites identified were an O-methylated derivative of HT, glucuronides of HT and TYR and a novel glutathionylated conjugate of HT. In contrast, there was no absorption of OL in either model. However, OL was rapidly degraded by the colonic microflora resulting in the formation of HT. Our study provides additional information regarding the breakdown of complex olive oil polyphenols in the GI tract, in particular the stomach and the large intestine.

Extra virgin olive oil phenolics: absorption, metabolism, and biological activities in the GI tract

Olive oil, a typical ingredient of the Mediterranean diet, possesses many beneficial health effects. The biological activities ascribed to olive oil consumption are associated in part to its phenolics constituents, and mainly linked to the direct or indirect antioxidant activity of olive oil phenolics and their metabolites, which are exerted more efficiently in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, where dietary phenolics are more concentrated when compared to other organs. In this regard, we present a brief overview of the metabolism, biological activities, and anticancer properties of olive oil phenolics in the GI tract. Toxicology and Industrial Health 2009; 25: 285-293.