Electricity markets modeling considering complex contracts and aggregators

All over the world, the liberalization of electricity markets, which follows different paradigms, has created new challenges for those involved in this sector. In order to respond to these challenges, electric power systems suffered a significant restructuring in its mode of operation and planning. This restructuring resulted in a considerable increase of the electric sector competitiveness. Particularly, the Ancillary Services (AS) market has been target of constant renovations in its operation mode as it is a targeted market for the trading of services, which have as main objective to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. In this way, with the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources including distributed generation, demand response, storage units and electric vehicles, it is essential to develop new smarter and hierarchical methods of operation of electric power systems. As these resources are mostly connected to the distribution network, it is important to consider the introduction of this kind of resources in AS delivery in order to achieve greater reliability and cost efficiency of electrical power systems operation. The main contribution of this work is the design and development of mechanisms and methodologies of AS market and for energy and AS joint market, considering different management entities of transmission and distribution networks. Several models developed in this work consider the most common AS in the liberalized market environment: Regulation Down; Regulation Up; Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve. The presented models consider different rules and ways of operation, such as the division of market by network areas, which allows the congestion management of interconnections between areas; or the ancillary service cascading process, which allows the replacement of AS of superior quality by lower quality of AS, ensuring a better economic performance of the market. A major contribution of this work is the development an innovative methodology of market clearing process to be used in the energy and AS joint market, able to ensure viable and feasible solutions in markets, where there are technical constraints in the transmission network involving its division into areas or regions. The proposed method is based on the determination of Bialek topological factors and considers the contribution of the dispatch for all services of increase of generation (energy, Regulation Up, Spinning and Non-Spinning reserves) in network congestion. The use of Bialek factors in each iteration of the proposed methodology allows limiting the bids in the market while ensuring that the solution is feasible in any context of system operation. Another important contribution of this work is the model of the contribution of distributed energy resources in the ancillary services. In this way, a Virtual Power Player (VPP) is considered in order to aggregate, manage and interact with distributed energy resources. The VPP manages all the agents aggregated, being able to supply AS to the system operator, with the main purpose of participation in electricity market. In order to ensure their participation in the AS, the VPP should have a set of contracts with the agents that include a set of diversified and adapted rules to each kind of distributed resource. All methodologies developed and implemented in this work have been integrated into the MASCEM simulator, which is a simulator based on a multi-agent system that allows to study complex operation of electricity markets. In this way, the developed methodologies allow the simulator to cover more operation contexts of the present and future of the electricity market. In this way, this dissertation offers a huge contribution to the AS market simulation, based on models and mechanisms currently used in several real markets, as well as the introduction of innovative methodologies of market clearing process on the energy and AS joint market. This dissertation presents five case studies; each one consists of multiple scenarios. The first case study illustrates the application of AS market simulation considering several bids of market players. The energy and ancillary services joint market simulation is exposed in the second case study. In the third case study it is developed a comparison between the simulation of the joint market methodology, in which the player bids to the ancillary services is considered by network areas and a reference methodology. The fourth case study presents the simulation of joint market methodology based on Bialek topological distribution factors applied to transmission network with 7 buses managed by a TSO. The last case study presents a joint market model simulation which considers the aggregation of small players to a VPP, as well as complex contracts related to these entities. The case study comprises a distribution network with 33 buses managed by VPP, which comprises several kinds of distributed resources, such as photovoltaic, CHP, fuel cells, wind turbines, biomass, small hydro, municipal solid waste, demand response, and storage units.

Seroprevalence of antibodies to Venezuelan equine encephalitis complex (subtypes IAB and VI) in humans from General Belgrano Island, Formosa, Argentina

This work presents the results of the detection of antibodies (immunoglobulin G) for subtypes I and VI of VEE viruses complex (Togaviridae family) in people from the General Belgrano island, Formosa province (Argentina). The prevalence of neutralizing (NT) antibodies for subtype VI was from 30% to 70% and the prevalence of antibodies inhibitory of hemagglutination (HI) was of 0% in the first and second inquiry respectively. For the subtype IAB the prevalence of NT antibodies was from 13% to 3.6%, similar to the prevalence total for both subtypes. HI antibodies were not detected in any inquiries for any subtype. It was observed that both subtypes circulate simultaneously, while subtype VI remains constant with some peaks, subtype I was found in low level.

The Persistence of Memory

This paper analyzes several natural and man-made complex phenomena in the perspective of dynamical systems. Such phenomena are often characterized by the absence of a characteristic length-scale, long range correlations and persistent memory, which are features also associated to fractional order systems. For each system, the output, interpreted as a manifestation of the system dynamics, is analyzed by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectrum is approximated by a power law function and the parameters are interpreted as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. The complex systems under analysis are then compared in a global perspective in order to unveil and visualize hidden relationships among them.

Dynamical Analysis and Visualization of Tornadoes Time Series

In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

Multidimensional Scaling Visualization using Parametric Similarity Indices

In this paper, we apply multidimensional scaling (MDS) and parametric similarity indices (PSI) in the analysis of complex systems (CS). Each CS is viewed as a dynamical system, exhibiting an output time-series to be interpreted as a manifestation of its behavior. We start by adopting a sliding window to sample the original data into several consecutive time periods. Second, we define a given PSI for tracking pieces of data. We then compare the windows for different values of the parameter, and we generate the corresponding MDS maps of ‘points’. Third, we use Procrustes analysis to linearly transform the MDS charts for maximum superposition and to build a global MDS map of “shapes”. This final plot captures the time evolution of the phenomena and is sensitive to the PSI adopted. The generalized correlation, the Minkowski distance and four entropy-based indices are tested. The proposed approach is applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market index and the Europe Brent Spot Price FOB time-series.

Probabilistic Stereo Egomotion Transform

In this paper we propose a novel fully probabilistic solution to the stereo egomotion estimation problem. We extend the notion of probabilistic correspondence to the stereo case which allow us to compute the whole 6D motion information in a probabilistic way. We compare the developed approach against other known state-of-the-art methods for stereo egomotion estimation, and the obtained results compare favorably both for the linear and angular velocities estimation.

Soft tissue abscess and lymphadenitis due to Mycobacterium avium Complex as an expression of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome after a second scheme of highly active antiretroviral therapy

Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) is an atypical and unexpected reaction related to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients. IRIS includes an atypical response to an opportunistic pathogen (generally Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Mycobacterium avium complex, cytomegalovirus and herpes varicella-zoster), in patients responding to HAART with a reduction of plasma viral load and evidence of immune restoration based on increase of CD4+ T-cell count. We reported a case of a patient with AIDS which, after a first failure of HAART, developed a subcutaneous abscess and supraclavicular lymphadenitis as an expression of IRIS due to Mycobacterium avium complex after starting a second scheme of HAART.

Strange Dynamics in a Fractional Derivative of Complex-Order Network of Chaotic Oscillators

We study the peculiar dynamical features of a fractional derivative of complex-order network. The network is composed of two unidirectional rings of cells, coupled through a "buffer" cell. The network has a Z3 × Z5 cyclic symmetry group. The complex derivative Dα±jβ, with α, β ∈ R+ is a generalization of the concept of integer order derivative, where α = 1, β = 0. Each cell is modeled by the Chen oscillator. Numerical simulations of the coupled cell system associated with the network expose patterns such as equilibria, periodic orbits, relaxation oscillations, quasiperiodic motion, and chaos, in one or in two rings of cells. In addition, fixing β = 0.8, we perceive differences in the qualitative behavior of the system, as the parameter c ∈ [13, 24] of the Chen oscillator and/or the real part of the fractional derivative, α ∈ {0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0}, are varied. Some patterns produced by the coupled system are constrained by the network architecture, but other features are only understood in the light of the internal dynamics of each cell, in this case, the Chen oscillator. What is more important, architecture and/or internal dynamics?

Fate Hazardous elements in soils surrounding a coal-fired power plant complex

Proceedings of the 13th International UFZ-Deltares Conference on Sustainable Use and Management of Soil, Sediment and Water Resources - 9–12 June 2015 • Copenhagen, Denmark

Analysis of Natural and Artificial Phenomena Using Signal Processing and Fractional Calculus

In this paper we study several natural and man-made complex phenomena in the perspective of dynamical systems. For each class of phenomena, the system outputs are time-series records obtained in identical conditions. The time-series are viewed as manifestations of the system behavior and are processed for analyzing the system dynamics. First, we use the Fourier transform to process the data and we approximate the amplitude spectra by means of power law functions. We interpret the power law parameters as a phenomenological signature of the system dynamics. Second, we adopt the techniques of non-hierarchical clustering and multidimensional scaling to visualize hidden relationships between the complex phenomena. Third, we propose a vector field based analogy to interpret the patterns unveiled by the PL parameters.

Generalized convolution

The paper revisits the convolution operator and addresses its generalization in the perspective of fractional calculus. Two examples demonstrate the feasibility of the concept using analytical expressions and the inverse Fourier transform, for real and complex orders. Two approximate calculation schemes in the time domain are also tested.

On the analysis of data emerging in non-linear and complex systemscomparison of two X-Ray prony spectra

New arguments proving that successive (repeated) measurements have a memory and actually remember each other are presented. The recognition of this peculiarity can change essentially the existing paradigm associated with conventional observation in behavior of different complex systems and lead towards the application of an intermediate model (IM). This IM can provide a very accurate fit of the measured data in terms of the Prony's decomposition. This decomposition, in turn, contains a small set of the fitting parameters relatively to the number of initial data points and allows comparing the measured data in cases where the “best fit” model based on some specific physical principles is absent. As an example, we consider two X-ray diffractometers (defined in paper as A- (“cheap”) and B- (“expensive”) that are used after their proper calibration for the measuring of the same substance (corundum a-Al2O3). The amplitude-frequency response (AFR) obtained in the frame of the Prony's decomposition can be used for comparison of the spectra recorded from (A) and (B) - X-ray diffractometers (XRDs) for calibration and other practical purposes. We prove also that the Fourier decomposition can be adapted to “ideal” experiment without memory while the Prony's decomposition corresponds to real measurement and can be fitted in the frame of the IM in this case. New statistical parameters describing the properties of experimental equipment (irrespective to their internal “filling”) are found. The suggested approach is rather general and can be used for calibration and comparison of different complex dynamical systems in practical purposes.

Sandfly fauna (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Parque do Sabiá complex, Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Between April 2003 and May 2009 phlebotomine sandflies were collected in Parque do Sabiá complex, Uberlândia municipality, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using CDC and Shannon traps. The objective was to associate the sandfly species captured to the risk of the transmission of leishmaniasis in the municipality. The 126 captured specimens belonging to six species of phlebotomine, among which Lutzomyia (Psychodopygus) davisi (Root, 1934) predominated with 113 specimens (89.7%). The remaining captured species were Lutzomyia (Pintomyia) mamedei Oliveira, Afonso, Dias & Brazil, 1994 - five specimens (3.9%); Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Mangabeira, 1942) - four specimens (3.2%); Lutzomyia lenti (Mangabeira, 1938) - two specimens (1.6%); Brumptomyia avellari (Costa Lima, 1932) - one specimen (0.8%); and Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani (Antunes & Coutinho, 1939) - one specimen (0.8%). The collection of species that may be involved in the transmission of Leishmania reveals the need for continuous entomological surveillance.

POLYCLONAL OUTBREAK OF BLOODSTREAM INFECTIONS CAUSED BY Burkholderia cepacia COMPLEX IN HEMATOLOGY AND BONE MARROW TRANSPLANT OUTPATIENT UNITS

Aim: The objective was to describe an outbreak of bloodstream infections by Burkholderia cepacia complex (Bcc) in bone marrow transplant and hematology outpatients.Methods: On February 15, 2008 a Bcc outbreak was suspected. 24 cases were identified. Demographic and clinical data were evaluated. Environment and healthcare workers' (HCW) hands were cultured. Species were determined and typed. Reinforcement of hand hygiene, central venous catheter (CVC) care, infusion therapy, and maintenance of laminar flow cabinet were undertaken. 16 different HCWs had cared for the CVCs. Multi-dose heparin and saline were prepared on counter common to both units.Findings: 14 patients had B. multivorans(one patient had also B. cenopacia), six non-multivorans Bcc and one did not belong to Bcc. Clone A B. multivorans occurred in 12 patients (from Hematology); in 10 their CVC had been used on February 11/12. Environmental and HCW cultures were negative. All patients were treated with meropenem, and ceftazidime lock-therapy. Eight patients (30%) were hospitalized. No deaths occurred. After control measures (multidose vial for single patient; CVC lock with ceftazidime; cleaning of laminar flow cabinet; hand hygiene improvement; use of cabinet to store prepared medication), no new cases occurred.Conclusions: This polyclonal outbreak may be explained by a common source containing multiple species of Bcc, maybe the laminar flow cabinet common to both units. There may have been contamination by B. multivorans (clone A) of multi-dose vials.