1000 resultados para climate analog


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25 p.

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The chief objectives of this brief review are to collate and synthesise quantitative information on the temperature requirements of aquatic insects, and to identify species, and groups of species, that could be useful indicators of climate change and predictors of the ecological effects of change. It arose from the first phase of the Terrestrial Initiative in Global Environmental Research (TIGER), a five-year, NERC Community Programme on the role of the terrestrial biosphere in the science of global change. This phase involved the identification of criteria for selecting species suitable for the study of effects of projected climate change in the British Isles. Field and laboratory studies are reviewed, and criteria for selection of species for future research are suggested. The literature survey shows that no species of aquatic insect can be found to meet all three criteria, but information on the British stoneflies and their eggs already satisfies two of them.

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Examination of 40 time series of multidisciplinary environmental variables from the Pacific Ocean and the Americas, collected in 1968 to 1984, demonstrated the remarkable consistency of a major climate-related, step-like change in 1976. To combine the 40 variables (e.g., air and water temperatures, Southern Oscillation, chlorophyll, geese, salmon, crabs, glaciers, atmospheric dust, coral, carbon dioxide, winds, ice cover, Bering Strait transport) into a single time series, standard variants of individual annual values (subtracting the mean and dividing by a standard deviation) were averaged. Analysis of the resulting time series showed that the single step in 1976, separating the 1968-1975 period from the 1977-1984 period, accounted for 89% of variance within the composite time series. Apparently, one of the Earth's large ecosystems occasionally undergoes large abrupt shifts.