The effects of past, present and future climate change on range-wide genetic diversity in northern North Atlantic marine species

It is now accepted that changes in the Earth’s climate are having a profound effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species. One aspect of these changes that has only recently received any attention, however, is their potential effect on levels of within-species genetic diversity. Theoretical, empirical and modelling studies suggest that the impact of trailing-edge population extirpation on range-wide intraspecific diversity will be most pronounced in species that harbour the majority of their genetic variation at low latitudes as a result of changes during the Quaternary glaciations. In the present review, I describe the historical factors that have determined current patterns of genetic variation across the ranges of Northern North Atlantic species, highlight the fact that the majority of these species do indeed harbour a disproportionate level of genetic diversity in rear-edge populations, and outline how combined species distribution modelling and genetic analyses can provide insights into the potential effects of climate change on their overall genetic diversity.

Physical activity and the rejuvenation of Connswater (PARC study): protocol for a natural experiment investigating the impact of urban regeneration on public health

Background: There is a dearth of evidence regarding the impact of urban regeneration projects on public health, particularly the nature and degree to which urban regeneration impacts upon health-related behaviour change. Natural experiment methodology enables comprehensive large-scale evaluations of such interventions. The Connswater Community Greenway in Belfast is a major urban regeneration project involving the development of a 9 km linear park, including the provision of new cycle paths and walkways. In addition to the environmental improvements, this complex intervention involves a number of programmes to promote physical activity in the regenerated area. The project affords a unique opportunity to investigate the public health impact of urban regeneration.

Methods/Design: The evaluation framework was informed by the socio-ecological model and guided by the RE-AIM Framework. Key components include: (1) a quasi-experimental before-and-after survey of the Greenway population (repeated cross-sectional design), in tandem with data from a parallel Northern Ireland-wide survey for comparison; (2) an assessment of changes in the local built environment and of walkability using geographic information systems; (3) semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of survey respondents, and a range of community stakeholders, before and after the regeneration project; and (4) a cost-effectiveness analysis. The primary outcome is change in proportion of individuals identified as being regularly physically active, according to the current UK recommendations. The RE-AIM Framework will be used to make an overall assessment of the impact of the Greenway on the physical activity behaviour of local residents.

Discussion: The Connswater Community Greenway provides a significant opportunity to achieve long-term, population level behaviour change. We argue that urban regeneration may be conceptualised meaningfully as a complex intervention comprising multiple components with the potential, individually and interactively, to affect the behaviour of a diverse population. The development and implementation of our comprehensive evaluation framework reflects this complexity and illuminates an approach to the empirical, rigorous evaluation of urban regeneration. More specifically, this study will add to the much needed evidence-base about the impact of urban regeneration on public health as well as having important implications for the development of natural experiment methodology.

A 1300-year multi-proxy, high-resolution record from a rich fen in northern Poland:Reconstructing hydrology, land use and climate change

Here we present the first high-resolution multi-proxy analysis of a rich fen in the central-eastern European lowlands. The fen is located in the young glacial landscape of the Sta{ogonek}zki river valley. We investigated the fen's development pathways, asking three main questions: (i) what was the pattern and timing of the peatland's vegetation succession, (ii) how did land use and climate affect the succession in the fen ecosystem, and (iii) to what degree does the reconstructed hydrology for this site correlate with those of other sites in the region in terms of past climate change? Several stages of fen history were determined, beginning with the lake-to-fen transition ca. AD 700. Brown mosses dominated the sampling site from this period to the present. No human impact was found to have occurred until ca. AD 1700, when the first forest cutting began. Around AD 1890 a more significant disturbance took place-this date marks the clear cutting of forests and dramatic landscape openness. Deforestation changed the hydrology and chemistry of the mire, which was revealed by a shift in local plant and testate amoebae communities. We also compared a potential climatic signal recorded in the peat profile before AD 1700 with other sites from the region. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The relationship between breastfeeding and postpartum weight change-a systematic review and critical evaluation

Pregnancy and the postpartum period is a time of increased vulnerability for retention of excess body fat in women. Breastfeeding (BF) has been shown to have many health benefits for both mother and baby; however, its role in postpartum weight management is unclear. Our aim was to systematically review and critically appraise the literature published to date in relation to the impact of BF on postpartum weight change, weight retention and maternal body composition. Electronic literature searches were carried out using MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science, BIOSIS, CINAHL and British Nursing Index. The search covered publications up to 12 June 2012 and included observational studies (prospective and retrospective) carried out in BF mothers (either exclusively or as a subgroup), who were 2 years postpartum and with a body mass index (BMI) >18.5 kg m(-2), with an outcome measure of change in weight (including weight retention) and/or body composition. Thirty-seven prospective studies and eight retrospective studies were identified that met the selection criteria; studies were stratified according to study design and outcome measure. Overall, studies were heterogeneous, particularly in relation to sample size, measurement time points and in the classification of BF and postpartum weight change. The majority of studies reported little or no association between BF and weight change (n=27, 63%) or change in body composition (n=16, 89%), although this seemed to depend on the measurement time points and BF intensity. However, of the five studies that were considered to be of high methodological quality, four studies demonstrated a positive association between BF and weight change. This systematic review highlights the difficulties of examining the association between BF and weight management in observational research. Although the available evidence challenges the widely held belief that BF promotes weight loss, more robust studies are needed to reliably assess the impact of BF on postpartum weight management.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 20 August 2013; doi:10.1038/ijo.2013.132.

The impact of peer review on the radiotherapy treatment planning process in the treatment of lung cancer

Background:
Advanced radiotherapy techniques permit accurate delivery of radiotherapy to lung tumours. Improved accuracy increases the possibility of radiotherapy field geographic miss of the tumour. One source of error is the accuracy of target volume (TV) delineation by the clinical oncologist. Colleague peer review of all curative intent lung cancer plans has been mandatory in our institution since May 2013. At least 2 clinical oncologists review plans checking treatment paradigm, TV delineated, dose to tumour and dose to critical organs. We report the impact of peer review on the radiotherapy planning process for lung cancer.

Methods:
The radiotherapy treatment plans of all patients receiving radical radiotherapy were presented at weekly peer review meetings after their TVs volumes were provisionally signed off by the treating consultant or post-fellowship registrar. All cases and any resultant change to the treatment plan were recorded in our prospective peer review database. We present the summary of changes agreed following the peer review process for a 6 month period.

Results:
Fifteen peer review sessions, including 46 patients (36 NSCLC, 10 SCLC) were analysed. An average of 3 cases were discussed per meeting (range 1 5). 24% of treatment courses were changed. In 4% there was a complete change in paradigm
of treatment (1 patient proceeded to induction chemotherapy, 1 patient had high dose palliative radiotherapy). In 16% there was a change in TV delineated and in 9% a change in dose (2 dose reductions and 2 alterations to post-operative dose fractionations).

Conclusions:
Consultant led peer review resulted in a change in a component of the treatment plan for 28% of patients that would not otherwise have taken place. Given this impact, consultant led peer review should be considered as an essential component in the radiotherapy planning process for all patients treated with curative radiotherapy.

Impact of nitrogen seeding on confinement and power load control of a high-triangularity JET ELMy H-mode plasma with a metal wall

This paper reports the impact on confinement and power load of the high-shape 2.5 MA ELMy H-mode scenario at JET of a change from all carbon plasma-facing components to an all metal wall. In preparation to this change, systematic studies of power load reduction and impact on confinement as a result of fuelling in combination with nitrogen seeding were carried out in JET-C and are compared with their counterpart in JET with a metallic wall. An unexpected and significant change is reported on the decrease in the pedestal confinement but is partially recovered with the injection of nitrogen.

The impact of foreign postings on accompanying military spouses: an ethnographic study

As part of an ethnographic study, the impact of foreign postings on spouses who accompany military personnel was explored. Individual interviews and focus groups with 34 British military spouses based in one location in southern Europe were conducted. Key findings suggested that reaction to a foreign posting was a reflection of personal attitudes, prior experiences, support, ability to adjust to change and strength of relationship with the serving spouse and community. For many the experience was positive due to the increased opportunity for family time, for others this helped to compensate for the difficulties experienced. Some military spouses experienced significant distress on the posting, particularly if the family was not well-supported. The potential implications of military spouses not adapting to foreign postings have significant implications for healthcare practice. Provision of more appropriate support resources before and during the posting would facilitate the transition for the military spouse and their family.

The effects of global climate change on the cycling and processes of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and gamma-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models
(HAMSOM and FANTOM, respectively). To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10-year periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in
situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. This slice mode under a moderate scenario (A1B) is sufficient to provide a basis for further analysis. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilized, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model.
Dry gas deposition and volatilization of gamma-HCH increase in the future relative to the present by up to 20% (in the spring and summer months for deposition and in summer for volatilization). In the water column, total mass of
gamma-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment,
gamma-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, due to the increased number of storms, increased duration of gale wind conditions and increased water and air temperatures, all of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.
Overall, the model results indicate that the climate change scenarios considered here generally have a negligible influence on the simulated fate and transport of the two POPs in the North Sea, although the increased number and magnitude of storms in the 21st century will result in POP resuspension and ensuing revolatilization events. Trends in emissions from primary and secondary sources will remain the key driver of levels of these contaminants over time.

Impact of sample preparation on mineralogical analysis of zero-valent iron reactive barrier materials

Permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) of zero-valent iron (Fe⁰) are increasingly being used to remediate contaminated ground water. Corrosion of Fe⁰ filings and tbe formation of precipitates can occur when the PRB material comes in contact with ground water and may reduce the lifespan and effectiveness of the barrier. At present, there are no routine procedures for preparing and analyzing the mineral precipitates from Fe⁰ PRB material. These procedures are needed because mineralogical composition of corrosion products used to interpret the barrier processes can change with iron oxidation and sample preparation. The objectives of this study were (i) to investigate a method of preparing Fe⁰ reactive barrier material for mineralogical analysis by X-ray diffraction (XRD), and (ii) to identify Fe mineral phases and rates of transformations induced by different mineralogical preparation techniques. Materials from an in situ Fe⁰ PRB were collected by undisturbed coring and processed for XRD analysis after different times since sampling for three size fractions and by various drying treatments. We found that whole-sample preparation for analysis was necessary because mineral precipitates occurred within the PRB material in different size fractions of the samples. Green rusts quickly disappeared from acetone-dried samples and were not present in air-dried and oven-dried samples Maghemite/magnetite content increased over time and in oven-dried samples, especially after heating to 105°C. We conclude that care must be taken during sample preparation of Fe⁰ PRB material, especially for detection of green rusts, to ensure accurate identification of minerals present within the barrier system.

Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

The impact of interventions to promote physical activity in urban green space: A systematic review and recommendations for future research

Evidence is mounting on the association between the built environment and physical activity (PA) with a call for intervention research. A broader approach which recognizes the role of supportive environments that can make healthy choices easier is required. A systematic review was undertaken to assess the effectiveness of interventions to encourage PA in urban green space. Five databases were searched independently by two reviewers using search terms relating to 'physical activity', 'urban green space' and 'intervention' in July 2014. Eligibility criteria included: (i) intervention to encourage PA in urban green space which involved either a physical change to the urban green space or a PA intervention to promote use of urban green space or a combination of both; and (ii) primary outcome of PA. Of the 2405 studies identified, 12 were included. There was some evidence (4/9 studies showed positive effect) to support built environment only interventions for encouraging use and increasing PA in urban green space. There was more promising evidence (3/3 studies showed positive effect) to support PAprograms or PA programs combined with a physical change to the built environment, for increasing urban green space use and PAof users. Recommendations for future research include the need for longer term follow-up post-intervention, adequate control groups, sufficiently powered studies, and consideration of the social environment, which was identified as a significantly under-utilized resource in this area. Interventions that involve the use of PA programs combined with a physical change to the built environment are likely to have a positive effect on PA. Robust evaluations of such interventions are urgently required. The findings provide a platform to inform the design, implementation and evaluation of future urban green space and PAintervention research.

Tracking Change in Northern Ireland Policing: Temporal Phases and Key Themes

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to explore and explain the change process in Northern Ireland policing through an analysis of temporally bracketed change phases and key change delivery themes ranging from 1996 to 2012.

Design/methodology/approach
– The research approach adopted is process based, longitudinal and multi-method, utilising “temporal bracketing” to determine phases of change and conjunctural reasoning to unravel the systematic factors interacting over time, within the case.

Findings
– The paper identifies and temporally brackets four phases of change: “Tipping point”; “Implementation, Symbolic Modification and Resistance”; “Power Assisted Steering”; and “A Return to Turbulence”, identifies four themes that emerge from RUC-PSNI experience: the role of adaptive leadership; pace and sequencing of change implementation; sufficient resourcing; and the impact of external agents acting as boundary spanners, and comments on the prominence of these themes through the phases. The paper goes on to reflect upon how these phases and themes inform our understanding of organisational change within policing organisations generally and within politically pressurised transition processes.

Originality/value
– The contribution of the paper lies in the documentation of an almost unique organisational case in an environmentally forced change process. In this it contains lessons for other organisations facing similar, if less extreme challenges and presents an example of intense change analysed longitudinally.

Using postal questionnaires to evaluate physical activity and diet behaviour change: case study exploring implications of valid responder characteristics in interpreting intervention outcomes.

Background: Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are used to evaluate lifestyle interventions but littleis known about differences between patients returning valid and invalid responses, or of potential for bias inevaluations. We aimed to examine the characteristics of patients who returned valid responses to lifestylequestionnaires compared to those whose responses were invalid for evaluating lifestyle change. 
Methods: We conducted a secondary data analysis from the SPHERE Study, a trial of an intervention to improveoutcomes for patients with coronary heart disease in primary care. Postal questionnaires were used to assessphysical activity (Godin) and diet (DINE) among study participants at baseline and 18 month follow-up. Three binaryresponse variables were generated for analysis: (1) valid Godin score; (2) valid DINE Fibre score; and (3) validDINE Total Fat score. Multivariate analysis comprised generalised estimating equation regression to examine theassociation of patients’ characteristics with their return of valid responses at both timepoints. 
Results: Overall, 92.1% of participants (832/903) returned questionnaires at both baseline and 18 months. Relativelyfewer valid Godin scores were returned by those who left school aged <15 years (36.5%) than aged 18 and over(50.5%), manual workers (39.5%) than non-manual (49.5%) and those with an elevated cholesterol (>5 mmol)(34.7%) than those with a lower cholesterol (44.4%) but multivariate analysis identified that only school leaving age(p = 0.047) was of statistical significance.Relatively fewer valid DINE scores were returned by manual than non-manual workers (fibre: 80.8% v 86.8%;fat: 71.2% v 80.0%), smokers (fibre: 72.6% v 84.7%; fat: 67.5% v 76.9%), patients with diabetes (fibre: 75.9% v 82.9%;fat: 66.9% v 75.8%) and those with cholesterol >5 mmol (fat: 68.2% v 76.2%) but multivariate analysis showedstatistical significance only for smoking (fibre: p = 0.013; fat: p = 0.045), diabetes (fibre: p = 0.039; fat: p = 0.047), andcholesterol (fat: p = 0.039). 
Conclusions: Our findings illustrate the importance of detailed reporting of research methods, with clearinformation about response rates, respondents and valid outcome data. Outcome measures which are relevant to astudy population should be chosen carefully. The impact of methods of outcome measurement and valid responserates in evaluating healthcare requires further study.

The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.

Belfast's Traditional Music Scene: A Narrative of Change and Development

Today Belfast is home to a vibrant traditional music scene. There have never been more sessions, concerts, classes or lectures devoted to traditional music in the north's biggest city. A complex system of promoters, performers and listeners has emerged in a city that is growing in confidence as it moves away from the dark days of the Troubles. But how does this system function? While Dowling (2014) has examined the development of traditional music-making in Belfast as it shifted from a pre-conflict to conflict ridden environment, little research has been carried out into the reasons behind the boom in traditional music-making in a post-conflict setting.

This paper examines the impact upon the traditional music scene of the first wave of students to arrive in Belfast after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. These musicians, such as Donal O'Connor, Ruadhrai O'Kane and Aidan Walsh have had a lasting impact upon the lives of musicians native to Belfast, helping to bring traditional music to new venues and audiences.

The work of Belfast-based music schools with varying remits, such as Belfast Trad., and the Andersonstown School of Traditional and Contemporary Music, is also examined for the purpose of illustrating how both adults and young people are being educated about their musical heritage.