Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Examination of social demographic status, disease status, health behaviours and quality of life in older Australians using the theory of planned behaviour model

The increase of life expectancy worldwide during the last three decades has increased age-related disability leading to the risk of loss of quality of life. How to improve quality of life including physical health and mental health for older people and optimize their life potential has become an important health issue. This study used the Theory of Planned Behaviour Model to examine factors influencing health behaviours, and the relationship with quality of life. A cross-sectional mailed survey of 1300 Australians over 50 years was conducted at the beginning of 2009, with 730 completed questionnaires returned (response rate 63%). Preliminary analysis reveals that physiological changes of old age, especially increasing waist circumference and co morbidity was closely related to health status, especially worse physical health summary score. Physical activity was the least adherent behaviour among the respondents compared to eating healthy food and taking medication regularly as prescribed. Increasing number of older people living alone with co morbidity of disease may be the barriers that influence their attitude and self control toward physical activity. A multidisciplinary and integrated approach including hospital and non hospital care is required to provide appropriate services and facilities toward older people.

Future developments in chest pain diagnosis and management

Much of the focus of research on patients with chest pain is directed at technological advances in the diagnosis and management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), pulmonary embolism (PE), and acute aortic dissection (AAD), despite there being no significant difference at 4 years as regards mortality, ongoing chest pain, and quality of life between patients presenting to the emergency department with noncardiac chest pain and those with cardiac chest pain. This article examines future developments in the diagnosis and management of patients with suspected ACS, PE, AAD, gastrointestinal disease, and musculoskeletal chest pain.

Delirium in early-stage Alzheimer's disease : enhancing cognitive reserve as a possible preventive measure

Delirium is a disorder of acute onset with fluctuating symptoms and is characterized by inattention, disorganized thinking, and altered levels of consciousness. The risk for delirium is greatest in individuals with dementia, and the incidence of both is increasing worldwide because of the aging of our population. Although several clinical trials have tested interventions for delirium prevention in individuals without dementia, little is known about the mechanisms for the prevention of delirium in early-stage Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The purpose of this article is to explore ways of preventing delirium and slowing the rate of cognitive decline in early-stage AD by enhancing cognitive reserve. An agenda for future research on interventions to prevent delirium in individuals with early-stage AD is also presented.

Social Participation of Community Dwelling Stroke Survivors [Published Abstract: From the Quality of Care and Outcomes Research in Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke Conference 2009]

Disability following a stroke can impose various restrictions on patients’ attempts at participating in life roles. The measurement of social participation, for instance, is important in estimating recovery and assessing quality of care at the community level. Thus, the identification of factors influencing social participation is essential in developing effective measures for promoting the reintegration of stroke survivors into the community. Data were collected from 188 stroke survivors (mean age 71.7 years) 12 months after discharge from a stroke rehabilitation hospital. Of these survivors, 128 (61 %) had suffered a first ever stroke, and 81 (43 %) had a right hemisphere lesion. Most (n = 156, 83 %) were living in their own home, though 32 (17 %) were living in residential care facilities. Path analysis was used to test a hypothesized model of participation restriction which included the direct and indirect effects between social, psychological and physical outcomes and demographic variables. Participation restriction was the dependent variable. Exogenous independent variables were age, functional ability, living arrangement and gender. Endogenous independent variables were depressive symptoms, state self-esteem and social support satisfaction. The path coefficients showed functional ability having the largest direct effect on participation restriction. The results also showed that more depressive symptoms, low state self-esteem, female gender, older age and living in a residential care facility had a direct effect on participation restriction. The explanatory variables accounted for 71% of the variance in explaining participation restriction. Prediction models have empirical and practical applications such as suggesting important factors to be considered in promoting stroke recovery. The findings suggest that interventions offered over the course of rehabilitation should be aimed at improving functional ability and promoting psychological aspects of recovery. These are likely to enhance stroke survivors resume or maximize their social participation so that they may fulfill productive and positive life roles.

Disease prevention and control

Globally, the main contributors to morbidity and mortality are chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Chronic diseases are costly and partially avoidable, with around sixty percent of deaths and nearly fifty percent of the global disease burden attributable to these conditions. By 2020, chronic illnesses will likely be the leading cause of disability worldwide. Existing health care systems, both national and international, that focus on acute episodic health conditions, cannot address the worldwide transition to chronic illness; nor are they appropriate for the ongoing care and management of those already afflicted with chronic diseases. International and Australian strategic planning documents articulate similar elements to manage chronic disease; including the need for aligning sectoral policies for health, forming partnerships and engaging communities in decision-making. The Australian National Chronic Disease Strategy focuses on four core areas for managing chronic disease; prevention across the continuum, early detection and treatment, integrated and coordinated care, and self-management. Such a comprehensive approach incorporates the entire population continuum, from the ‘healthy’, to those with risk factors, through to people suffering from chronic conditions and their sequelae. This chapter examines comprehensive approach to the prevention, management and care of the population with non-communicable, chronic diseases and communicable diseases. It analyses models of care in the context of need, service delivery options and the potential to prevent or manage early intervention for chronic and communicable diseases. Approaches to chronic diseases require integrated approaches that incorporate interventions targeted at both individuals and populations, and emphasise the shared risk factors of different conditions. Communicable diseases are a common and significant contributor to ill health throughout the world. In many countries, this impact has been minimised by the combined efforts of preventative health measures and improved treatment of infectious diseases. However in underdeveloped nations, communicable diseases continue to contribute significantly to the burden of disease. The aim of this chapter is to outline the impact that chronic and communicable diseases have on the health of the community, the public health strategies that are used to reduce the burden of those diseases and the old and emerging risks to public health from infectious diseases.

Role of low affinity beta1-adrenergic receptors in normal and diseased hearts

ROLE OF LOW AFFINITY β1-ADRENERGIC RECEPTOR IN NORMAL AND DISEASED HEARTS Background: The β1-adrenergic receptor (AR) has at least two binding sites, 1HAR and 1LAR (high and low affinity site of the 1AR respectively) which cause cardiostimulation. Some β-blockers, for example (-)-pindolol and (-)-CGP 12177 can activate β1LAR at higher concentrations than those required to block β1HAR. While β1HAR can be blocked by all clinically used β-blockers, β1LAR is relatively resistant to blockade. Thus, chronic β1LAR activation may occur in the setting of β-blocker therapy, thereby mediating persistent βAR signaling. Thus, it is important to determine the potential significance of β1LAR in vivo, particularly in disease settings. Method and result: C57Bl/6 male mice were used. Chronic (4 weeks) β1LAR activation was achieved by treatment with (-)-CGP12177 via osmotic minipump. Cardiac function was assessed by echocardiography and catheterization. (-)-CGP12177 treatment in healthy mice increased heart rate and left ventricular (LV) contractility without detectable LV remodelling or hypertrophy. In mice subjected to an 8-week period of aorta banding, (-)-CGP12177 treatment given during 4-8 weeks led to a positive inotropic effect. (-)-CGP12177 treatment exacerbated LV remodelling indicated by a worsening of LV hypertrophy by ??% (estimated by weight, wall thickness, cardiomyocyte size) and interstitial/perivascular fibrosis (by histology). Importantly, (-)-CGP12177 treatment to aorta banded mice exacerbated cardiac expression of hypertrophic, fibrogenic and inflammatory genes (all p<0.05 vs. non-treated control with aorta banding).. Conclusion: β1LAR activation provides functional support to the heart, in both normal and diseased (pressure overload) settings. Sustained β1LAR activation in the diseased heart exacerbates LV remodelling and therefore may promote disease progression from compensatory hypertrophy to heart failure. Word count: 270